Week Ahead on Wall Street: All About Jobs

New Year, Same Focus

Even though the calendar pages have turned, the key themes driving financial markets in these early January days look to remain the same: Consumer strength, corporate earnings growth, and risks to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment will likely continue to drive markets.

This week brings important updates to related data, including job openings and consumer sentiment. But the spotlight will be on Friday’s December jobs report, which continues to be one of the most closely watched economic releases each month. This jobs report feels especially important considering Fed officials revised their economic projections for 2025 to show lower unemployment and fewer interest rate cuts. Could the latest look at the labor market sway these forecasts again?

In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that while progress on lowering inflation has been bumpy, it’s still on the way down. But investors don’t seem convinced, with securities like inflation swaps and Treasury yields suggesting inflation concerns are picking up again. All that’s to say that an unemployment surprise this week could inject significant volatility into both stock and bond markets, as investors have to think about what the jobs data means for monetary policy, as well as coming inflation data. A strengthening labor market might suggest improving consumer demand, which could be a leading indicator of rising inflation, while a weakening labor market could point to the opposite.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   December S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   November Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a keynote speech at the University of Michigan Law School.

Tuesday

•   November Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   November Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier for companies and preferable to layoffs.

•   December ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give a speech to the Greater Raleigh Chamber on the economy.

Wednesday

•   December ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.

•   FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.

•   November Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

Thursday

•   December Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.

•   November Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   Fedspeak: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will discuss the economic outlook. Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak to the Virginia Bankers Association and the Virginia Chamber of Commerce about the economy. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak to the Economic Club of Kansas City.

•   Earnings: Constellation Brands

Friday

•   December Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.

•   January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•   Earnings: Delta Air Lines, Walgreens Boots Alliance

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