Week Ahead on Wall Street: Getting Busy

Earnings and Friends

It’s a busy week ahead as the new presidential administration finds its footing and investors navigate a bevvy of economic releases and company earnings. While multiple high-profile events demand attention, some matter more than others. Buckle up!

Macroeconomic data provides important context, but stock performance ultimately relies on corporate America’s ability to generate cash flows and profit. Given that, quarterly results will command the most market attention this week with over 100 companies in the S&P 500 set to report. Included in that list are five of the seven main mega-cap technology companies. All in all, companies accounting for nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization will have reported by the end of the week, with the broader direction of the stock market hinging on what we might learn from these releases.

On the economic side, we’ll be watching fourth quarter GDP, consumer confidence, and home price data. Each will provide market watchers with insights, though the GDP data is sure to be the most closely scrutinized. The Federal Reserve will also give an update to monetary policy this week, but expectations for meaningful changes are low. (Market pricing indicates a 99% probability that the central bank keeps interest rates where they are.) Given the shifting political landscape, investors might do well to temper expectations of any significant shifts from the Fed in the near term.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   December Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

•   December New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.

•   January Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Earnings: Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Nucor (NUE), AT&T (T), W R Berkley (WRB)

Tuesday

•   December Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

•   November FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

•   November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: This is a private sector measure of national home prices. After a period of slight decline in the second half of 2022 and early 2023, the index returned to growth and is now at record highs.

•   January Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   January Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market.

•   January Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   January Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Earnings: Boeing (BA), Boston Properties (BXP), Chubb (CB), F5 Networks (FFIV), General Motors (GM), Invesco (IVZ), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), NVR (NVR), PACCAR (PCAR), Packaging of America (PKG), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Starbucks (SBUX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Stryker (SYK), Sysco (SYY)

Wednesday

•   December Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   December Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Earnings: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Danaher (DHR), General Dynamics (GD), Corning (GLW), Hess (HES), International Business Machines (IBM), Lennox International (LII), Lam Research (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), MSCI (MSCI), Microsoft (MSFT), Nasdaq (NDAQ), ServiceNow (NOW), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Progressive (PGR), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Teradyne (TER), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Tesla (TSLA), United Rentals (URI), Western Digital (WDC), Waste Management (WM)

Thursday

•   4Q GDP First Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), A O Smith (AOS), Avery Dennison (AVY), Baker Hughes (BKR), Blackstone Group LP (BX), Cardinal Health (CAH), Caterpillar (CAT), Cigna (CI), Comcast (CMCSA), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Eastman Chemical (EMN), NortonLifeLock (GEN), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Intel (INTC), International Paper (IP), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Mastercard (MA), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Altria Group (MO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Parker-Hannifin (PH), PulteGroup (PHM), PPG Industries (PPG), ResMed (RMD), Roper Technologies (ROP), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Trane Technologies (TT), United Parcel Service (UPS), Visa (V), Valero Energy (VLO), Weyerhaeuser (WY)

Friday

•   4Q Employment Cost Index: This is the most comprehensive measure of worker compensation, including wages, bonuses, benefits and more.

•   December Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States.

•   December Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits.

•   January Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.

•   Earnings: AbbVie (ABBV), Amazon (AMZN), Aon Plc (AON), Franklin Resources (BEN), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Church & Dwight (CHD), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Chevron (CVX), Eaton Corp (ETN), WW Grainger (GWW), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Phillips 66 (PSX), Rockwell Automation (ROK), PerkinElmer (RVTY), Exxon Mobil (XOM)

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