Week Ahead on Wall Street: Tariff Aftermath
Earnings Kickoff
This week marks the start of another quarterly earnings season, with the major banks stepping up to the plate first as usual. Their reports will offer investors an initial look at how corporate America performed in the first quarter of 2025, while also providing valuable insights into consumer sentiment and lending activity.
The timing is consequential. Surpassing the first few tariff actions in both scale and scope, last week’s tariff announcements extended beyond what most market watchers had anticipated. Which begs some interesting questions about earnings: Were companies already feeling the effects in their first-quarter operations? And more importantly, how will the trade upheaval affect their outlook?
When executives speak up during their earnings calls, analysts will be listening closely for any mentions of supply chain adjustments, pricing strategies, or margin pressures resulting from trade policy shifts. While the first-quarter results themselves might not show much tariff impact due to timing, forward guidance and commentary will likely address these developments directly.
Adding further intrigue to this week’s market narrative will be the release of fresh inflation data, which takes on additional significance given that tariffs could push prices higher. The interaction between corporate earnings and inflation could tell us a lot about whether companies will look to pass increased costs to consumers or absorb them at the expense of profitability.
Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday
• February Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.
Tuesday
• March NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.
• Earnings: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
Wednesday
• February Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at the Economic Club of Washington D.C.
• Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ)
Thursday
• March Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.
• March Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.
• Fedspeak: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give welcome remarks at an event titled Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration at the regional bank. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Economic Club of New York. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will discuss fintech at an event at the regional bank.
• Earnings: CarMax (KMX)
Friday
• March Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.
• April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economy and monetary policy at an Arkansas event. New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at a Puerto Rico event.
• Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Fastenal (FAST), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), Wells Fargo (WFC)
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