Week Ahead on Wall Street: The Big One
Trade and Jobs
This week marks a critical juncture for financial markets, with two major storylines set to converge: The implementation of broad-ranging tariffs and the Friday jobs report. Investors seem more focused on the former – which President Trump has referred to as “the big one” – but both have the potential to move markets.
On the trade side, tariff announcements are expected to include not just Mexico, Canada, and China (our largest trading partners accounting for over 40% of U.S. imports), but any and every country. That might sound like an exaggeration, yet it can’t be ruled out given comments from the President and administration officials about the possibility of reciprocal and “secondary” tariffs.
Reciprocal tariffs impose identical duties on other nations for any duties placed on U.S. products. Secondary tariffs – a more novel concept recently introduced by the President – entail the U.S. placing a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil from Venezuela, a sanctioned country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Pursued to their fullest extent alongside the auto tariffs announced last week, they could significantly impact most countries. How all of this trade policy uncertainty shakes out will have major implications for inflation, business investment, and consumer spending.
Simultaneously, the week’s jobs data comes at a good time considering that recent surveys show consumers are feeling increasingly pessimistic. The latest data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers shows two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months – the highest reading since February 2009. Will businesses maintain the positive hiring momentum or will the bad vibes weaken the labor market? This week could provide more hints but leave the big question unsolved.
Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday
• March Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.
• March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
Tuesday
• February Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.
• February Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.
• March ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.
• March Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• March Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.
Wednesday
• March ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.
• February Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
Thursday
• March Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.
• February Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.
• March S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.
• March ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.
• Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will participate in a moderated discussion titled Central Bank Communication and Textual Analysis Techniques at the Atlanta Fed.
• Earnings: Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW)
Friday
• March Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.
• Fedspeak: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak with Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s James Nelson and The Washington Post’s Heather Long at the 2025 Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference.
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