Week Ahead on Wall Street: The Future of Chips

AI Check-Up

Though most major companies have already reported results this earnings season, one of the most anticipated releases still lies ahead: NVIDIA. As the dominant provider of the advanced chips that power artificial intelligence, NVIDIA has been the most important bellwether for the technology.

While its earnings reports have all been market moving since the emergence of AI, there’s an added layer of intrigue this week. Here’s why: Last month, DeepSeek R1, a new Chinese reasoning model, was released after being apparently developed for a fraction of the cost of other leading models. This threw the AI industry for a loop and sparked a brief selloff in tech stocks as investors worried that the big U.S. tech companies could be overspending on AI infrastructure and high-cost chips. However, U.S. tech stocks did bounce back once it became clear that the low headline costs were misleading.

Nonetheless, questions around the cost of AI have grown common and the spotlight on Wednesday will be trained on what NVIDIA’s management has to say about the trajectory of capital spending. A bullish outlook from NVIDIA could reaffirm confidence in the AI spending cycle and provide support for stocks sensitive to it. On the other hand, a dimmer outlook could reignite the bearish forces that weighed on tech stocks in January.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   January Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

•   February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Earnings: Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Realty Income (O), ONEOK (OKE), Public Storage (PSA), SBA Communications (SBAC)

Tuesday

•   February Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   December FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

•   December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: This is a private sector measure of national home prices. After a period of slight decline in the second half of 2022 and early 2023, the index returned to growth and is now at record highs.

•   February Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market.

•   February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   February Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   February Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Fedspeak: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at a Bank of England research conference focused on the theme The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a speech called Inflation Then and Now at an event hosted by the Rotary Club of Richmond.

•   Earnings: American Tower (AMT), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Extra Space Storage (EXR), First Solar (FSLR), Home Depot (HD), Henry Schein (HSIC), Intuit (INTU), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Sempra Energy (SRE), Workday (WDAY)

Wednesday

•   January New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook and housing at an Urban Land Institute conference. Tom Barkin will repeat his speech on Inflation Then and Now at an event hosted by the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

•   Earnings: Agilent Technologies (A), APA Corp (APA), Salesforce (CRM), eBay (EBAY), FirstEnergy (FE), Invitation Homes (INVH), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), NRG Energy (NRG), NVIDIA (NVDA), ViacomCBS (PARA), Synopsys (SNPS), TJX Companies (TJX), Universal Health Services (UHS), Verisk Analytics (VRSK)

Thursday

•   4Q GDP Second Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.

•   January Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

•   February Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give the keynote address on financial stability at the Research Conference on Bank Regulation. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the economic outlook. Barkin will repeat his speech on Inflation Then and Now at an event hosted by the Fayetteville Cumberland Economic Development.

•   Earnings: Autodesk (ADSK), AES (AES), Dell Technologies (DELL), Edison International (EIX), EOG Resources (EOG), Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Evergy (EVRG), HP (HPQ), Hormel Foods (HRL), Mosaic (MOS), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), NetApp (NTAP), JM Smucker (SJM), Solventum (SOLV), Teleflex (TFX), Vistra Energy (VST), Viatris (VTRS), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD)

Friday

•   January Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   January Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States.

•   January Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits.

•   February Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.

•   February Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in moderated Q&A at the 2025 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit.

•   Earnings: Monster Beverage (MNST), Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Image credit: Bernie Pesko

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