Week Ahead on Wall Street: 2024 Elections

Race to the White House

The 2024 presidential election is a day away and investors are closely watching the race, as the candidates’ policy platforms have the potential to influence corporate earnings, consumer spending, and asset prices over the next four years.

For example, there are different approaches to tax policy, which could affect how Americans spend their money, as well as how businesses feel about the economy. Trade policy is another key area of contrast. The president has a lot of leeway when it comes to imposing tariffs on foreign imports: Tariffs on certain goods or certain producing countries tend to get passed onto consumers as businesses using foreign parts try to recoup their rising costs, making finished products more expensive. This could help domestic producers of those goods but also weigh on consumer demand.

Polling has been tight and we don’t have a crystal ball. With no clear favorite, it’s possible this week in markets will be a turbulent one. That could be unnerving, which is why it’s important for investors to have a broader strategy and keep in mind that while the trajectory of the economy could be affected by the election, it probably won’t be determined by it.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• September Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

• Earnings: American International Group (AIG), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Franklin Resources (BEN), Celanese (CE), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Eversource Energy (ES), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Fox Class B (FOX), Hologic (HOLX), Loews (L), Marriott International (MAR), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Realty Income (O), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), PerkinElmer (RVTY), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Zoetis (ZTS)

Tuesday

• Election Day.

• October ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

• Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Assurant (AIZ), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Cummins (CMI), DuPont de Nemours (DD), Devon Energy (DVN), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Henry Schein (HSIC), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Gartner (IT), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Targa Resources (TRGP), YUM! Brands (YUM)

Wednesday

• October S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

• Earnings: Ameren (AEE), American Electric Power (AEP), Albemarle (ALB), ANSYS (ANSS), APA Corp (APA), Atmos Energy (ATO), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), Corteva (CTVA), CVS Health (CVS), Fair Isaac (FICO), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Iron Mountain (IRM), Johnson Controls International (JCI), McKesson (MCK), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Marathon Oil (MRO), Match Group (MTCH), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), PTC (PTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Sempra Energy (SRE), STERIS (STE), Trimble (TRMB), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Williams Companies (WMB)

Thursday

• 3Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost.

• September Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.

• September Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

• Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Arista Networks (ANET), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Corpay (CPAY), Duke Energy (DUK), Consolidated Edison (ED), EOG Resources (EOG), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Fortinet (FTNT), Halliburton (HAL), Hershey (HSY), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Moderna (MRNA), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), News (NWS), PG&E (PCG), Insulet (PODD), Ralph Lauren (RL), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Solventum (SOLV), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), TransDigm Group (TDG), Tapestry (TPR), Vistra Energy (VST), Viatris (VTRS), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD)

Friday

• November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

• Earnings: Baxter International (BAX), NRG Energy (NRG), ViacomCBS (PARA)

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