SoFi Blog

As CEO of a company that’s working to revolutionize the student loan industry, I have to say the past couple of weeks have been interesting to watch.

President Obama’s much-debated plan to increase college affordability has stoked the fires of an already heated national dialogue about the rising cost of higher education. I applaud the President for addressing this issue, and I’m pleased that this event is bringing the conversation to the forefront.  However, I still think there are some fundamental flaws in the plan.

The House approved the Senate’s student loan bill yesterday.  This bill included some significant changes to how interest rates are set on loans made after July 1, 2013.  Here is how it impacts you.

Investors are often wrong.  Professional, retail – it doesn’t matter, there is never any shortage of folks on the wrong side of a trade.  No market has confounded the professionals more in the past few years than currencies, and no currency has caused more closure of 2/20 funds than the euro.

We had a good jobs report on Friday, adding 195K workers in June with unemployment holding at 7.6%.  And we had some good revisions to previous numbers as well, pushing the three month average to nearly 200K a month.  The bond market sold hard on this news, with a quantitative easing (QE) exit all but certain to start in September and tightening being priced in for late 2014.  While I’m not one to catch a falling knife – e.g., stand in the way of the one-way bond market sell-off, I think tightening doesn’t happen until 2017.

King dollar is back.  For the last decade, the dollar has generally been inversely correlated to the S&P 500.  When markets were up, the dollar was down versus most other currencies.  Higher markets were associated with lower volatility and greater risk appetite – the “Risk On” trade.  Investors would short dollars and buy higher yielding currencies like the Australian Dollar, Brazilian Real and Norwegian Krone.  On a risk-adjusted basis, these carry trades had an attractive Sharpe ratio and were the lifeblood of too many hedge fund managers (collecting 2/20 on carry is almost criminal, but that’s another story).

It’s good to be the king, while it lasts…