SoFi Blog

So far the world is living up to the hype of a post-election economic expansion. Economies are large, inertial systems and there is little doubt that the seeds of the current uptick in activity were laid several months ago. Regardless, the upward revisions in expected growth and inflation after the election of Donald Trump continue to be vindicated as the data fits the narrative. We are beginning to hear more about increased uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies but our experience is that economic forecasters always view the world as “unusually” uncertain.

With markets quiet heading into year-end, it seems a good time to set out what we will look for in 2017. No one knows the future, but we can prepare for developments that are likely to drive markets over the next year.

U.S. Equity markets were down slightly last week, shrugging off a bond market selloff in China, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and the expected increase in the federal funds rate. Ten-year Treasury yields were higher on the week and the dollar continued to rally against the euro and yen, hurting dollar returns in global equity indices.

Recently released data continues to show a world economy gaining momentum. While the U.S. jobs report was mixed, business survey data from the U.S. and elsewhere showed continued and accelerating expansion. The recent rise in bond yields moderated this week as market attention focused on a slate of events including the Italian referendum and upcoming meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve.

The Trump theme discussed in our last commentary continues to drive markets. The promise of infrastructure spending and tax cuts have driven Treasury yields higher and strengthened the dollar almost relentlessly since the election three weeks ago.

So-called “animal spirits” and self-fulfilling expectations can often move markets. However, this rally has been accompanied by solid economic data that supports the narrative of faster growth and inflation. With the risks of a post-election panic diminished, we have reduced fixed income duration in our portfolios in order to avoid capital losses from rising real interest rates.