SoFi Blog

A preponderance of solid economic data has sent equity markets higher as they brush aside the political risk stemming from a chaotic new administration. Focus has shifted back towards the Federal Reserve and the outlook for monetary policy after several weeks in which expectations of tax cuts and infrastructure spending captivated markets. We continue to like a globally diversified equity portfolio and short duration fixed income.

After breaking through the much-watched 20,000 level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and other major equity indices, have retreated over the past several days. The pull back in equities, the rise in Treasury prices, and dollar sell off are all clearly related to actions of the Trump administration. Indeed, the likelihood of an economically destabilizing policy action by the administration rises as he continues to pursue policies previously thought to be campaign rhetoric. A border tax, for instance, could be incredibly destabilizing to the U.S. economy.

We have seen some of the “Trump Trades” retrace a bit as equities have levelled off, interest rates have eased, and the dollar has weakened against both the yen and euro over the last week. The economic data continues to point to faster growth and accelerating inflation, but questions remain on whether the post-election euphoria will translate into increased spending.

So far the world is living up to the hype of a post-election economic expansion. Economies are large, inertial systems and there is little doubt that the seeds of the current uptick in activity were laid several months ago. Regardless, the upward revisions in expected growth and inflation after the election of Donald Trump continue to be vindicated as the data fits the narrative. We are beginning to hear more about increased uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies but our experience is that economic forecasters always view the world as “unusually” uncertain.

With markets quiet heading into year-end, it seems a good time to set out what we will look for in 2017. No one knows the future, but we can prepare for developments that are likely to drive markets over the next year.