SoFi Blog

Interest rates have continued to rise while equities tread water as a March rate hike by the Federal Reserve became a certainty. Today the FED raised rates ¼ of one percent or 25 basis points. Attention has now shifted to any information that can be gleaned from Chair Yellen and the rest of the FOMC on the likely pace of hikes for the rest of the year.

As equities continue to charge ahead, both the dollar and real interest rates remain in a holding pattern. Increased uncertainty over the likelihood of tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending have led many to question the continued justification for a “Trump Rally.” Accelerating inflation and statements from Fed Bank Presidents Williams and Dudley have brought the Federal Reserve back to center stage as the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee approaches.

A preponderance of solid economic data has sent equity markets higher as they brush aside the political risk stemming from a chaotic new administration. Focus has shifted back towards the Federal Reserve and the outlook for monetary policy after several weeks in which expectations of tax cuts and infrastructure spending captivated markets. We continue to like a globally diversified equity portfolio and short duration fixed income.

After breaking through the much-watched 20,000 level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and other major equity indices, have retreated over the past several days. The pull back in equities, the rise in Treasury prices, and dollar sell off are all clearly related to actions of the Trump administration. Indeed, the likelihood of an economically destabilizing policy action by the administration rises as he continues to pursue policies previously thought to be campaign rhetoric. A border tax, for instance, could be incredibly destabilizing to the U.S. economy.

We have seen some of the “Trump Trades” retrace a bit as equities have levelled off, interest rates have eased, and the dollar has weakened against both the yen and euro over the last week. The economic data continues to point to faster growth and accelerating inflation, but questions remain on whether the post-election euphoria will translate into increased spending.