Dec
05
2024
What Is Historical Volatility & How Do You Use It?

A Guide to Historical Volatility

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on A Guide to Historical Volatility

Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Historical volatility (HV) measures the range of returns on a market index or security over a given time period. When an asset’s historical volatility is going up, that means its price is moving further away from its average (in either direction) more quickly than usual.

A stock’s historical volatility is commonly expressed as one standard deviation using daily returns, and it’s one factor that investors often look at to gauge the risk of a potential investment. An asset’s historical volatility is different from its implied volatility. Read on to learn what historical volatility is, how historical volatility works, and how to calculate historical volatility.

Key Points

•   Historical volatility measures deviations from a stock’s average price over a period of time.

•   The historical volatility of a stock is typically calculated using the standard deviation of daily returns.

•   Historical volatility is expressed as a percentage, but differs from forward-looking implied volatility.

•   High historical volatility suggests larger price swings, while low volatility indicates smaller movements.

•   Traders may use historical volatility alongside implied volatility — which indicates the expected future volatility of an option’s underlying asset — to inform their trading strategy or assess a security’s riskiness.

What Is Historical Volatility?

Historical volatility measures how much the price of a stock or index goes up and down over a certain period. Investors calculate historical volatility by measuring how much an asset’s price deviates from its average price during a certain time period. Historical volatility typically looks at daily returns, but some investors use it to look at intraday price changes.

Analysts can use any number of trading days when calculating historical volatility, but options traders typically focus on a time period between 10 and 180 days to balance capturing short-term fluctuations with longer-term trends. Options traders may use historical volatility and implied volatility when analyzing trading ideas.

Historical volatility is typically expressed as a percentage that reflects the standard deviation from the average price, based on past price behavior. But there are also other methods they can use to determine an asset’s historical volatility. For example, unstable daily price changes often result in high historical volatility readings.

How Historical Volatility Works

Historical volatility, expressed as a percentage, tracks how much a stock’s price fluctuates in relation to its average price during a certain period. This is usually calculated using the standard deviation of past price returns, which is then demonstrated as an annualized figure.

When a stock sees large daily price swings compared to its history, it will typically have a historical volatility reading. Historical volatility does not measure direction; it simply indicates the deviation from an average.

When a stock’s historical volatility is rising or above average, it means daily price changes are larger than normal. When it is lower than average, a stock or index has been relatively calm.

How Historical Volatility is Calculated

The historical volatility formula is typically a standard deviation measurement. It typically takes a stock’s daily price changes and averages them over a period. There are several steps to calculating historical volatility:

1.    Collect historical prices.

2.    Calculate the average price over the chosen period.

3.    Find the difference between each day’s price change and the average price.

4.    Square those differences.

5.    Find the sum of those squared differences (this finds the squared deviations).

6.    Divide the sum by the total number of prices (this finds the variance).

7.    Calculate the square root of the variance.

You can then calculate the annualized volatility of a stock in two ways:

•   Daily returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 252 (the approximate number of trading days per year)

•   Monthly returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 12 (the number of months per year)

Working through the historical volatility formula can be a lengthy process, but most brokerage platforms will automatically calculate it for you. Many brokers even offer historical volatility charts. With a historical volatility chart, you can easily compare changes through time.

For example, if a stock reacted sharply to an earnings release, its historical volatility charts may show a jump right after the earnings date, while implied volatility might drop sharply as the market makes adjustments to its expectations following the earnings results. Implied volatility measures market expectations of price fluctuations for a certain asset in the future, which is reflected in how its options are priced.

How to Use Historical Volatility

Traders may use historical volatility when analyzing a stock, fund, or index to get a sense of its riskiness. High or low historical volatility stocks are not inherently bullish or bearish. Day traders might seek high historical volatility stocks as candidates for high-profit trading opportunities (but they also come with high loss potential).

Traders sometimes use historical volatility to help set stop-loss levels, which are predetermined prices at which a trade will automatically close to limit losses. For example, a day trader might use three times a stock’s daily average range – a measure of historical volatility – to set a stop price. This is known as volatility ratio trading.

You can also use historical volatility to help determine whether a stock’s options are expensive to help determine an options trading strategy. If implied volatility is extremely high when compared to a stock’s historical volatility, traders may decide that options on the stock are undervalued and suitable as an investment.

Historical volatility can help traders understand the potential range of price movements, which may inform their risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points.

Recommended: Increase your buying power with a margin loan.

Historical vs Implied Volatility

Like historical volatility, implied volatility measures fluctuations in an underlying stock or index over a period of time, but there are key differences between the two indicators. Implied volatility is a forward-looking indicator of a stock’s future volatility.

The higher the historical volatility, the more risk-prone the security has been in the past. Implied volatility, on the other hand, uses option pricing to arrive at a calculation and estimate of future volatility. If implied volatility is significantly less than a stock’s historical volatility, traders typically anticipate a relatively stable period of trading, and vice versa.

Typically, when implied volatility is low, options tend to also be priced lower, which may make them more appealing to buyers who seek to capitalize on potential future price movements. Sometimes investors will use a graph to determine how an option’s implied volatility changes relative to its strike price, using a volatility smile.

Historical Volatility

Implied Volatility

Measures past price data to gauge volatility on a security. Uses forward-looking option-pricing data to gauge expected future volatility on a security.
Higher historical volatility often leads to higher options pricing and higher implied volatility. Imminent news, like a company earnings report or a key economic data point, may drive implied volatility higher on a stock or index.
May inform traders’ risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points. Traders may use implied volatility to find stocks expected to exhibit the biggest price swings.

The Takeaway

Historical volatility can be a useful indicator for both institutional and retail investors looking to monitor the level and frequency of a stock or index’s price fluctuations. It measures a security’s dispersion of returns over a defined period. Implied volatility is a similar tool, but it is forward-looking and uses option pricing to arrive at its output.

Investors who are ready to try their hand at options trading despite the risks involved, might consider checking out SoFi’s options trading platform offered through SoFi Securities, LLC. The platform’s user-friendly design allows investors to buy put and call options through the mobile app or web platform, and get important metrics like breakeven percentage, maximum profit/loss, and more with the click of a button.

Plus, SoFi offers educational resources — including a step-by-step in-app guide — to help you learn more about options trading. Trading options involves high-risk strategies, and should be undertaken by experienced investors. Currently, investors can not sell options on SoFi Active Invest®.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.

FAQ

What is considered a good number for historical volatility?

It depends. Although one stock might have a high historical volatility reading, perhaps above 100%, another steady stock might have a low figure around 20%. The key is to understand the securities you trade. Historical volatility can be an indicator of a stock’s volatility, but unforeseen risks can make future volatility drastically different than the historical trend.

What is a historical volatility ratio?

The historical volatility ratio compares short-term and long-term historical volatility as a percentage of the price of a financial asset. You can interpret the historical volatility ratio by looking at short versus long historical volatility. If short volatility on a stock drops below a threshold percentage of its long volatility, a trader might think there will be a jump in future volatility soon.

This is similar to analyzing volatility skew in options. It is important to remember that the interpretation and technical rules of historical volatility can be subjective by traders.

How is historical volatility calculated?

Historical volatility calculations require finding the average deviation from the average price of an asset over a particular time. An asset’s standard deviation is often used. Historical volatility is usually stated as one standard deviation of historical daily returns.

Many trading platforms automatically calculate historical volatility, so you may not have to do the calculations manually.

Photo credit: iStock/Eva-Katalin

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Dec
04
2024
colorful chart

What Is a Dead Cat Bounce and How Can You Spot It?

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on What Is a Dead Cat Bounce and How Can You Spot It?

A dead cat bounce refers to an unexpected price jump that occurs after a long, slow decline — and typically just before another price drop. In other words, the price jump isn’t “live” and typically doesn’t last.

The danger can be that the apparent rebound might create a false sense of value, momentum, or optimism. That said, some investors may be able to take advantage of a dead cat bounce to create a short position. Unfortunately, it’s usually hard to identify a dead cat bounce until after the fact.

Nonetheless, investors may want to know some of the signs of this price pattern, as it can help them gauge certain market movements.

Key Points

•   A dead cat bounce refers to a temporary price jump after a decline, often followed by another drop.

•   It is difficult to identify a dead cat bounce in real-time, making it challenging for investors to take advantage of it.

•   Dead cat bounces can occur in individual stocks, bonds, or market sectors.

•   Investors should be cautious when interpreting price movements and consider other factors before making investment decisions.

•   Active investors may use technical analysis and market indicators to help identify potential dead cat bounces.

What Is a Dead Cat Bounce?

The phrase “dead cat bounce” comes from a saying among traders that even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a height that’s high enough.

Thus, when a security or market experiences a steady decline and then appears to bounce back — only to decline again — it’s often dubbed a dead cat bounce.

What can be puzzling for investors is that the bounce, or “recovery”, doesn’t have a rhyme or reason; it’s merely part of a short-term market variation, perhaps driven by market sentiment or other economic factors.

Knowing the Specifics

If you’re learning how to invest in stocks or invest online, bear in mind that a dead cat bounce is not used to describe the ups and downs of a typical trading day — it refers to a longer-term drop, rebound, and continued drop. The term wouldn’t apply to a security that’s continuing to grow in value. The spike must be brief, before the price continues to fall.

It’s also important to point out that this financial phenomenon can pertain to individual securities such as stocks or bonds, to stock trading as a whole, or to a market.

Why It Helps to Identify This Pattern

Even for experienced traders or short-term investors using sophisticated technical analysis, it can be difficult to identify a dead cat bounce. Sometimes a rally is actually a rally; sometimes a drop indicates a bottom.

The point of trying to distinguish whether the rise in price will continue or reverse is because it can influence your strategy. If you have a short position, and you anticipate that a rally in stock price will end in a reversal, you may want to hold steady.

But if you think the rally will continue, you may want to exit a short position.

Example of a Dead Cat Bounce

To illustrate a dead cat bounce, let’s suppose company ABC trades for $70 on June 5, then drops in value to $50 per share over the next four months. Between Oct. 7 and Oct. 14, the price suddenly rises to $65 per share — but then starts to rapidly decline again on Oct. 15. Finally, ABC’s stock price settles at $30 per share on Oct. 16.

This pattern is how a dead cat bounce might appear in a real-life trading situation. The security quickly paused the decline for a swift revival, but the price recovery was temporary before it started falling again and eventually steadied at an even lower price.

Recommended: How to Invest in Stocks

Historical Dead Cat Bounce Pattern

There are countless examples of the dead cat bounce pattern in stocks and other securities, as well as whole markets. One of the most recent affected the entire stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.S. stock market lost about 12% during one week in February 2020, and appeared to revive the following week with a 2% gain. But it turned out to be a false recovery, and the market dipped back down again until later in the summer.

What Causes a Dead Cat Bounce?

A dead cat bounce is often the result of investors believing the market or security in question has hit its low point and they try to buy in to ride the turnaround. It can also occur as a result of investors closing out short positions.

Since these trends aren’t driven by technical factors, that’s why the bounce is typically short-lived — usually lasting a couple of days, or maybe a couple of months.

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4 Signs of a Dead Cat Bounce

Although a dead cat bounce is typically not reflective of a stock’s intrinsic value, the dramatic price increase may tempt investors to jump on an investment opportunity before it makes sense to do so.

The following typical sequence of events may help an investor correctly identify a dead cat bounce as it might occur with a specific stock.

1. There is a gap down.

Typically the stock opens lower than the previous close, usually a significant amount like 5% (or perhaps 3% if the stock isn’t prone to volatility).

2. The security’s price steadily declines.

In a true dead-cat-bounce scenario, that initial gap down will be followed by a sustained decline.

3. The price sees a monetary gain for a short time.

At some point during the price drop, there will be a turnaround as the price appears to bounce back, close to its previous high.

4. A security’s price begins to regress again.

The rally is short, however, and the stock completes its dead cat bounce pattern with a final decline in price.

Dead Cat Bounce vs. Other Patterns

How do you know whether the pattern you’re seeing is really a classic dead cat bounce versus other types of movements? Here are some clues.

Dead Cat Bounce or Rally?

One way to assess a dead cat bounce with a particular stock is to consider whether the now-rising stock is still as weak as it was when its price was falling. If there’s no market indicator as to why the stock is rebounding, you might suspect a dead cat bounce.

Dead Cat Bounce or Lowest Price?

Since investors are looking for opportunities to profit, they try to find investment opportunities that allow them to buy low and sell high.

Therefore, when assessing investment opportunities, a successful investor might try to recognize emerging companies, and buy shares of a stock while the price is low, and before other investors get wind of a potential opportunity.

Since companies go through business cycles where stock prices fluctuate, pinpointing the lowest price point might be hard. There’s no way to know if a dead cat bounce is really happening until the prices have resumed their descent.

Dead Cat Bounce or Bear Market Bottom?

Investors may also confuse a dead cat bounce for the actual bottom of a bear market. It’s not uncommon for stocks to significantly rebound after the bear market hits bottom.

History shows that the S&P 500 often sees substantial gains within the first few months of hitting bottom after a bear market. But these rallies have been sustained, and thus are not a dead cat bounce.

Investing Strategies to Avoid a Dead Cat Bounce

For investors who want a more hands-on investing approach — meaning active investing vs. passive — it’s generally better to use investing fundamentals to evaluate a security instead of attempting to time the market (and risk mistaking a dead cat bounce for an opportunity).

Investors who are just starting may want to consider building a portfolio of a dozen or so securities. Picking a few stocks allows investors to monitor performance while giving their portfolio a little diversification. This means the investor distributes their money across several different types of securities instead of investing all of their money in one security, which in turn can help to minimize risk.

Active investors could also consider selecting stocks across varying sectors to give their portfolio even more diversification instead of sticking to one niche.

Investors with restricted funds might consider investing in just a few stocks while offsetting risk by investing in mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For investors who would prefer not to execute an active investing strategy alone, they can speak with a professional manager. Working with a professional manager may help the investors better navigate the intricacies of various market cycles.

Limitations in Identifying a Dead Cat Bounce

As noted several times here, a dead cat bounce can’t really be identified with 100% certainty until after the fact. While some traders may believe they can predict a dead cat bounce by using certain fundamental or technical analysis tools, it’s impossible to do so every single time.

If there were a way to accurately predict market movements or different patterns, people would always try to time the market. But there are no crystal balls in investing, as they say.

The Takeaway

With 20-20 hindsight, investors and analysts can clearly see that an individual security or market has experienced a steady drop in value, a brief rebound, and then a further drop — a phenomenon known as a dead cat bounce.

Unfortunately, though, it can be too hard for most investors to distinguish between a dead cat bounce and a bona fide rally, or the bottom of a given market or security’s price. Still, knowing what to look for may help investors make more informed choices, especially when it comes to making a choice around keeping or closing out a short position.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by email customer service at https://sofi.app.link/investchat. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.
Shares of ETFs must be bought and sold at market price, which can vary significantly from the Fund’s net asset value (NAV). Investment returns are subject to market volatility and shares may be worth more or less their original value when redeemed. The diversification of an ETF will not protect against loss. An ETF may not achieve its stated investment objective. Rebalancing and other activities within the fund may be subject to tax consequences.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Dec
04
2024
Tax Loss Carryforward

Tax Loss Tax Loss Carryforward: What Is It and How Does It Work?

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on Tax Loss Tax Loss Carryforward: What Is It and How Does It Work?

The tax loss carryforward rule allows capital losses from the sale of assets to be carried over from one year to another. In other words, an investor can use capital losses realized in the current tax year to offset gains or profits in a future tax year, assuming certain restrictions are met.

Investors can use a capital loss carryforward to minimize their tax liability when reporting capital gains from investments. Business owners can also take advantage of loss carryforward rules when deducting losses each year.

Knowing how this tax provision works and when it can be applied is important from an investment tax-savings perspective.

Key Points

•   Tax loss carryforward allows investors to offset capital losses against future gains, as well as taxable income.

•   Investors who take advantage of the tax loss carryforward rule may reduce their overall tax liability.

•   Capital loss carryforward rules prohibit violating the wash-sale rule and have limitations on deductions.

•   Net operating loss carryforward is similar to capital loss carryforward for businesses operating at a loss.

•   Losses can be carried forward indefinitely at the federal level, but capital losses must be used to offset capital gains in the same year.

What Is Tax Loss Carryforward?

Tax loss carryforward, sometimes called a capital loss carryover, is the process of carrying forward capital losses into future tax years. A capital loss occurs when you sell an asset, like a stock, for less than your adjusted basis.

Capital losses are the opposite of capital gains, which are realized when you sell an asset for more than your adjusted basis. In either case, taxes may come into play.

Adjusted basis means the cost of an asset, adjusted for various events (i.e., increases or decreases in value) through the course of ownership.

When you invest online or through a brokerage to purchase a stock or other security, knowing whether a capital gain or loss is short-term or long-term depends on how long you owned it before selling.

•   Short-term capital losses and gains occur when an asset is held for one year or less.

•   Long-term capital gains and losses are associated with assets held for longer than one year.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) allows certain capital losses, including losses associated with personal or business investments, to be deducted from taxable income.

There are limits on the amount that can be deducted each year, however, depending on the type of losses being reported.

For example, the IRS allows investors to deduct up to $3,000 from their taxable income if the capital loss is from the sales of assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate. If capital losses exceed $3,000 ($1,500 if you’re married, filing separately), the IRS allows investors to carry capital losses forward into future years and use them to reduce potential taxable income.

Recommended: SoFi’s Guide to Understanding Your Taxes

How Tax Loss Carryforwards Work

A tax loss carryforward generally allows you to report losses realized on assets in one tax year on a future year’s tax return. Realized losses differ from unrealized losses or gains, which are the change in an investment’s value compared to its purchase price before an investor sells it.

IRS loss carryforward rules apply to both personal and business assets. The main types of capital loss carryovers allowed by the Internal Revenue Code are capital loss carryforwards and net operating loss carryforwards.

Capital Loss Carryforward

Another way to describe the process of using capital losses to offset gains is that IRS rules allow investors to “harvest” tax losses, meaning they use capital losses to offset capital gains, assuming they don’t violate the wash-sale rule.

The wash-sale rule prohibits investors from buying substantially identical investments within the 30 days before or 30 days after the sale of a security for the purpose of tax-loss harvesting.

If capital losses are equal to capital gains, they will offset one another on your tax return, so there’d be nothing to carry over. For example, a $5,000 capital gain would cancel out a $5,000 capital loss and vice versa.

Remember that short-term capital losses must be applied to short-term gains, and long-term capital losses to long-term gains, owing to the difference in how capital gains are taxed.

However, if capital losses exceed capital gains, investors can deduct a portion of the losses from their ordinary income to reduce tax liability. Investors can deduct the lesser of $3,000 ($1,500 if married filing separately) or the total net loss shown on line 21 of Schedule D (Form 1040).

But any capital losses over $3,000 can be carried forward to future tax years, where investors can use capital losses to reduce future capital gains.

To figure out how to record a tax loss carryforward, you can use the Capital Loss Carryover Worksheet found on the IRS’ Instructions for Schedule D (Form 1040).

Recommended: A Guide to Tax-Efficient Investing

Net Operating Loss Carryforward

A net operating loss (NOL) occurs when a business has more deductions than income. Rather than posting a profit for the year, the company operates at a loss. Business owners may be able to claim a NOL deduction on their personal income taxes. Net operating loss carryforward rules work similarly to capital loss carryforward rules in that businesses can carry forward losses from one year to the next.

According to the IRS, for losses arising in tax years after December 31, 2020, the NOL deduction is limited to 80% of the excess of the business’s taxable income. To calculate net operating loss deductions for your business, you first have to omit items that could limit your loss, including:

•   Capital losses that exceed capital gains

•   Nonbusiness deductions that exceed nonbusiness income

•   Qualified business income deductions

•   The net operating loss deduction itself

These losses can be carried forward indefinitely at the federal level.

Note, however, that the rules for NOL carryforwards at the state level vary widely. Some states follow federal regulations, but others do not.

How Long Can Losses Be Carried Forward?

According to IRS tax loss carryforward rules, capital and net operating losses can be carried forward indefinitely. Note that the loss retains its short- or long-term characterization when carried forward.

It’s important to remember that capital loss carryforward rules don’t allow you to roll over losses without corresponding gains. IRS rules state that you must use capital losses to offset capital gains in the year they occur. You can only carry capital losses forward when and if they exceed your capital gains for the year.

As noted above, the IRS also requires you to use an apples-to-apples approach when applying capital losses against capital gains.

For example, you’d need to use short-term capital losses to offset short-term capital gains. You couldn’t use a short-term capital loss to balance out a long-term capital gain or a long-term capital loss to offset a short-term capital gain.

Example of Tax Loss Carryforward

Assume that you purchase 100 shares of XYZ stock at $50 each for a total of $5,000. Thirteen months after buying the shares, their value has doubled to $100 each, so you decide to sell, collecting a capital gain of $5,000.

Suppose you also hold 100 shares of ABC stock, which have decreased in value from $70 per share to $10 per share over that same period. If you decide to sell ABC stock, your capital losses will total $6,000 – the difference between the $7,000 you paid for the shares and the $1,000 you sold them for.

You could use $5,000 of the loss of ABC stock to offset the $5,000 gain associated with selling your shares in XYZ to reduce your capital gains tax. Per IRS rules, you could also apply the additional $1,000 loss to reduce your ordinary income for the year.

Now, say you also have another stock you sold for a $6,000 loss. Because you already have a $1,000 loss and there is a $3,000 limit on deductions, you could apply up to $2,000 to offset ordinary income in the current tax year, then carry the remaining $4,000 loss forward to a future tax year, per IRS rules.

This is an example of tax loss carryforward. All of this assumes that you don’t violate the wash-sale rule when timing the sale of losing stocks.

Recommended: What to Know about Paying Taxes on Stocks

The Takeaway

If you’re investing in a taxable brokerage account, it’s wise to include tax planning as part of your strategy. Selling stocks to realize capital gains could result in a larger tax bill if you’re not deducting capital losses at the same time.

With tax-loss harvesting, assuming you don’t violate the wash sale rule, it’s possible to carry forward investment losses to help reduce the tax impact of gains over time. This applies to personal as well as business gains and losses. Thus, understanding the tax loss carryforward provision may help reduce your personal and investment taxes.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.

Photo credit: iStock/bymuratdeniz

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Dec
02
2024
What Is the January Effect and Is It Good For Investors?

January Effect: What It Is and Is It Good for Investors?

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on January Effect: What It Is and Is It Good for Investors?

The January Effect is a term that some financial market analysts use to classify the first month as one of the best-performing months, stock-wise, during the year. Analysts and investors who believe in this phenomenon claim that stocks have large price increases in the first month of the year, primarily due to a decline in share prices in December. Theoretically, following the dip in December, investors pour into stocks, which may boost prices in January.

However, many analysts claim that the January Effect and other seasonal anomalies are nothing more than market myths, with little evidence to prove the phenomenon definitively. Nonetheless, it may be helpful for investors to understand the history and possible causes behind the January Effect.

Key Points

•   January Effect suggests stocks rise in January due to December price dips, which creates buying opportunities.

•   Small-cap stocks benefit most from the January Effect due to liquidity.

•   Tax-loss harvesting during the month of December may lower stock prices.

•   Investors then buy in January, boosting stock prices.

•   January Effect’s impact is debated; It’s either attributed to market myths or real behavior.

What Is the January Effect?

As noted above, the January Effect is a phenomenon in which stocks supposedly see rising valuations during the first month of the year. The theory is that many investors sell holdings and take gains from the previous year in December, which can push prices down. This dip supposedly creates buying opportunities in the first month of the new year as investors return from the holidays. This buying can drive prices up, creating a “January Effect.”

Believers of the January Effect say it typically occurs in the first week of trading after the New Year and can last for a few weeks. Additionally, the January Effect primarily affects small-cap stocks more than larger stocks because they are less liquid.

To take advantage of the January Effect, investors who are online investing or otherwise can either buy stocks in December that are expected to benefit from the January Effect or buy stocks in January when prices are expected to be higher due to the effect. Investors can also look for stocks with low prices in December, but have historically experienced a surge in January, and buy those stocks before the increase.

Recommended: How To Know When to Buy, Sell, Or Hold a Stock

What Causes the January Effect?

Here are a few reasons why stocks may rise in the first month of the year.

Tax-Loss Harvesting

Stock prices supposedly decline in December, when many investors sell certain holdings to lock in gains or losses to take advantage of year-end tax strategies, like tax-loss harvesting.

With tax-loss harvesting, investors can lower their taxable income by writing off their annual losses, with the tax timetable ending on December 31. According to U.S. tax law, an investor only needs to pay capital gains taxes on their investments’ total realized gains (or losses).

For example, suppose an investor owned shares in three companies for the year and sold the stocks in December. The total value of the profit and loss winds up being taxed.

Company A: $20,000 profit
Company B: $10,000 profit
Company C: $15,000 loss

For tax purposes, the investor can tally up the total investment value of all three stocks in a portfolio — in this case, that figure is $15,000 ($20,000 + $10,000 – $15,000). Consequently, the investor would only have to pay capital gains taxes on $15,000 for the year rather than the $30,000 in profits.

If the investor still believes in Company C and only sold the stock to benefit from tax-loss harvesting, they can repurchase the stock 30 days after the sale to avoid the wash-sale rule. The wash-sale rule prevents investors from benefiting from selling a security at a loss and then buying a substantially identical security within the next 30 days.

Recommended: Tax Loss Carryforward

A Clean Slate for Consumers

U.S. consumers, who play a critical role in the U.S. economy, traditionally view January as a fresh start. Adding stocks to their portfolios or existing equity positions is a way consumers hit the New Year’s Day “reset” button. If retail investors buy stocks in the new year, it can result in a rally for stocks to start the year.

Moreover, many workers may receive bonus pay in December or January may use this windfall to buy stocks in the first month of the year, adding to the January Effect.

Portfolio Managers May Buy In January

Like consumers, January may give mutual fund portfolio managers a chance to start the year fresh and buy new stocks, bonds, and commodities. That puts managers in a position to get a head start on building a portfolio with a good yearly-performance figure, thus adding more investors to their funds.

Additionally, portfolio managers may have sold losing stocks in December as a way to clean up their end-of-year reports, a practice known as “window dressing.” With portfolio managers selling in December and buying in January, it could boost stock prices at the beginning of the year.

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Is the January Effect Real?

The January Effect has been studied extensively, and there is evidence to suggest that it is somewhat real. Studies have found that small- and mid-cap stocks tend to outperform the market during January because they are less liquid.

But some analysts note that the effect has become less pronounced in recent years due to the rise of tax-advantaged investing accounts, like 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts (IRAs). Investors who use these accounts may not have a reason to sell in December to benefit from tax-loss harvesting. Therefore, while the January Effect may be somewhat real, its impact may be more muted than in the past.

January Effect and Efficient Markets

However, many investors claim that the January Effect is not real because it is at odds with the efficient markets hypothesis. An efficient market is where the market price of securities represents an unbiased estimate of the investment’s actual value.

Efficient market backers say that external factors — like the January Effect or any non-disciplined investment strategy — aren’t effective in portfolio management. Since all investors have access to the same information that a calendar-based anomaly may occur, it’s impossible for investors to time the stock market to take advantage of the effect. Efficient market theorists don’t believe that calendar-based market movements affect market outcomes.

The best strategy, according to efficient market backers, is to buy stocks based on the stock’s underlying value — and not based upon dates in the yearly calendar.

History of the January Effect

The phrase “January Effect” is primarily credited to Sydney Wachtel, an investment banker who coined the term in 1942. Wachtel observed that many small-cap stocks had significantly higher returns in January than the rest of the year, a trend he first noticed in 1925.

He attributed this to the “year-end tax-loss selling” that occurred in December, which caused small-cap stocks to become undervalued. Wachtel argued that investors had an opportunity to capitalize on this by buying small-cap stocks during the month of January.

However, it wasn’t until the 1970s that the notion of a stock rally in January earned mainstream acceptance, as analysts and academics began rolling out research papers on the topic.

The January Effect has been studied extensively since then, and many theories have been proposed as to why the phenomenon may occur. These include ideas discussed above, like tax-loss harvesting, investor psychology, window-dressing by portfolio managers, and liquidity effects in stocks. Despite these theories, the January Effect remains an unexplained phenomenon, and there is a debate about whether following the strategy is beneficial.

The Takeaway

Like other market anomalies and calendar effects, the January Effect is considered by some to be evidence against the efficient markets hypothesis. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the stock market does perform better in January, especially with small-cap stocks. Whether one believes in the January Effect or not, it’s always a good idea for investors to use strategies that can best help them meet their long-term goals.

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For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

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1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Dec
02
2024
How to Calculate Rate of Return

Rate of Return (RoR): Formula and Calculation Examples

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on Rate of Return (RoR): Formula and Calculation Examples

Calculating rate of return, as it relates to investing, is a way for investors or traders to get a sense of how much money they stand to gain or lose from their investments. It’s a relatively simple formula and calculation, and can help investors evaluate their overall performance in the markets. It does have some shortcomings, however, such as not accounting for the time value of money or the timing of cash flows. So, there are alternative calculations out there to help get even more accurate results.

Key Points

•   The Rate of Return (RoR) measures an investment’s gain or loss as a percentage of its initial value over a specific period.

•   Calculating RoR involves identifying the initial and end values, applying the formula, and can be done manually or using tools like Excel.

•   RoR helps investors evaluate investment performance, compare different investments, and make informed decisions about resource allocation.

•   Understanding RoR is crucial for assessing investment performance, aligning with financial goals, and determining market performance relative to other opportunities.

What Is Rate of Return?

Rate of return (RoR) is a measure of an investment’s gain or loss, expressed as a percentage of its initial value, over a given period of time. If calculated correctly, your rate of return will be expressed as a percentage of your initial investment. Positive rate of return calculations indicate a net gain on your investment, while negative results will indicate a loss.

Don’t confuse this with the expected rate of return, which forecasts your expected returns using probability and historical performance.

When using the rate of return formula, your chosen time period is referred to as your “holding period.” Regardless of whether your holding period lasts days, months, or even years. It’s important that you keep the time periods consistent when comparing investment performance.

How to Calculate Rate of Return

You can calculate the rate of return on your online investing or other type of investing activity by comparing the difference between its current value and its initial value, and then dividing the result by its initial value.

Multiplying the result of that rate of return formula by 100 will net you your rate of return as a percentage. You’ll know whether you made money on your investment depending on whether your result comes in as positive or negative.

Rate of Return Formula

The standard rate of return formula can be represented as follows:

R = [ ( Ve – Vb ) / Vb ] x 100

In this equation:

R = Rate of return

Ve = End of period value

Vb = Beginning of period value

The aforementioned formula can be applied to any holding period to find your rate of return “R” over that timespan.

“Ve,” your end of period value, should represent the value of your investment, including any interest or dividends earned over your holding period.

Finally “Vb” should represent the value of your initial investment. It will be used as the relative basis on which your investment returns are calculated.

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Example of Calculating Rate of Return

To help you understand how to calculate the rate of return, we’ll walk you through an example. Again, here’s the formula:

R = [ ( Ve – Vb ) / Vb ] x 100

Let’s say an investor buys an investment for $125 a share which pays no dividends. This $125 investment will be your beginning of period value (“Vb”).

After one year, the value of the investment rises to $150 and the investor chooses to sell it. Given that $150 represents the value of the investment at the end of the holding period, $150 will be your end of period value (“Ve”).

To calculate the rate of return, enter the values for Vb and Ve into the rate of return formula. With the correct values in place, your equation should look like this:

R = [ ( $150 – $125 ) / $125 ] X 100

Solving out this formula using order of operations, your calculations should proceed as follows:

R = [ $25 / $125 ] X 100

R = 0.2 X 100

R = 20%

If done correctly, the formula should calculate a one year rate of return of 20%, based on the beginning and end of period values provided.

Considerations When Using Rate of Return

The main advantages of the rate of return calculation is that it’s simple and easy to calculate. It gives you a straightforward method to measure the profitability of an investment over any time period.

However, its simplicity does result in some shortcomings, particularly when it comes to more complex investments with numerous cash flows. We dive into these limitations below.

Recommended: What Is a Good Rate of Return?

What are the Limitations of Simple Rate of Return?

The main limitations of the simple rate of return calculation are that it ignores the time value of money and timing of cash flows.

The time value of money is an important concept when it comes to finance, as it explains that money today is always worth more than the same sum of money paid in the future. This is due to the inherent earnings potential of cash held now.

In tandem with the concept above, the simple rate of return calculation also fails to account for the timing of cash flows.

Cash flows are particularly important when dealing with more complex portfolios or investments that might have multiple reinvestment periods over time or multiple dividend payouts.

The simple rate of return calculation, in some ways, oversimplifies the rate of return into a simple accounting measure over an arbitrary amount of time. To address these shortcomings, professionals typically use alternate measures like internal rate of rate (IRR) and annualized rate of return.

Annualized Rate of Return Formula

The annualized rate of return is a slightly more complicated formula that solves the compatibility issues of the simple rate of return calculation by standardizing all calculations over an annual period.

The annualized rate of return formula can be exhibited as follows.

Ra = ( Ve / Vb ) 1 / n – 1 X 100

Where,

Ra = Annualized Rate of Return

Ve = End of period value

Vb = Beginning of period value

n = number of years in holding period

Annualized rate of return (Ra) standardizes your rate of return on an annual basis; this allows you to make fair comparisons with other annualized performance figures.

“Ve,” your end of period value, represents the value of your investment at the end of the holding period, including any interest or dividends earned.

“Vb” represents the value of your initial investment.

Other Types of Return Formulas

There are a multitude of other return metrics that can help you evaluate performance.

While the calculations for these metrics fall outside the scope of this reading, we touch on some of the most commonly used ones and why they’re used.

•   Internal Rate of Return (IRR): This represents the expected annual compound growth rate of a specific investment and is usually used to help determine whether an investment is worthwhile.

•   Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): Measures a firm’s profitability in relation to the total debt and equity invested by stakeholders.

•   Return on Equity (ROE): Measures a firm’s net income in relation to the total value of its shareholder’s equity.

How Investors Can Use Rate of Return

Retail investors, institutional investors, and even corporate decision makers use the rate of return to gauge the performance of their investments over time. It’s useful when compared against a benchmark index, return expectations, or other investment options to gauge how your investment performed on a relative basis.

When comparing investment returns, it’s important to make sure you’re making fair comparisons to ensure you’re making apples-to-apples comparisons. For example, the S&P 500 might not serve as a fair benchmark for a portfolio invested 100% in international equities, as these are substantially different investment types. Benchmark comparisons give meaning to your rate of return and help you evaluate whether you’re outperforming on a relative basis.

The Takeaway

Knowing how to calculate your rate of return gives you a useful tool for evaluating your investments’ performance. The best part about the rate of return calculation is that it can be done over almost any timespan, provided the returns you’re trying to compare have the same holding period.

Investors can calculate rate of return by hand, or by using an online spreadsheet. The same is true for annualized rate of return — which helps to standardize return rates over longer periods. Those are fairly simple ways to gauge investment returns, but there are a number of other metrics that help you assess and compare investment returns, so be sure to use the tool that aligns best with what you need to know.

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Photo credit: iStock/AleksandarNakic

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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