Investing Archives

Sep

2024

How Midterm Elections Can Influence the Stock Market

By Michael Flannelly | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Midterm elections can introduce uncertainty and turmoil to the stock market. A change in power in Congress could lead to policy and regulatory changes that could impact the economy and corporate profits. As such, investors will be watching to see which party wins control of Congress and the implications for the stock market.

Historically, the stock market has underperformed leading up to midterm elections and bounced back in the year following the elections. Many investors use this historical precedent to predict how midterms will affect the stock market in the future. However, past performance is not indicative of future results. The midterm elections may be less important on the stock market than other economic factors, like high interest rates, inflation, and rising energy costs.

What are the Midterm Elections?

As the name suggests, midterm elections occur in the middle of a presidential term, as opposed to a general election. Midterm elections are when voters elect every member of the House of Representatives, and about one-third of the members of the Senate. The results of the midterm elections often determine which political party controls the House and Senate, which could determine the future of economic policy that may affect the stock market, and investors’ plans for buying and selling stocks or other securities.

History of Midterm Elections Results

Historically, the president’s party loses ground in Congress during the midterm elections. Of the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. The president’s party gained seats in both the House and the Senate only twice over this period.

The flip in power during the midterm elections occurs, in part, because the president’s approval rating usually declines during the first two years in office, which can influence voters to vote against the party in power or not show up to the polls. Additionally, voters of the party not in control are often more motivated to vote during these elections, boosting voter turnout that can help the opposition party outperform the president’s party.

During the most recent midterm election cycle, in 2022, the Republican party won the House of Representatives with a 222-213 seat majority. The Democratic Party maintained a majority in the Senate, with a 51-seat majority.

Stock Market Performance During Year of Midterm Elections

Leading up to the midterm elections, the stock market tends to underperform. Since 1962, the average annual return of the S&P 500 Index in the 12 months before midterm elections is 0.3%. In contrast, the historical average return of the S&P 500 is an 8.1% gain.

This underperformance during the midterm year follows the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, which implies that the first two years of a president’s term tend to be the weakest for the stocks.

However, it’s unclear whether this downbeat performance and stock volatility in the year preceding the midterms is a function of investors’ views of potential election outcomes and subsequent policy changes.

Some analysts say that the underperformance occurs due to uncertainty about the election’s outcome and impact, and investors don’t like uncertainty. But others say that the more critical impact on the stock market is the state of the economy; factors like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, energy prices, inflation, and the state of the labor market are more important to the stock market.

Recommended: How Do Interest Rates Impact Stocks?

Stock Market Performance Following Midterm Elections

Even though the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has historically underperformed leading up to the midterm elections, stocks have tended to overperform in the post-election environment. Between 1962 and 2022, the 12 months after midterm elections, the S&P 500 had an average return of 16.3%.

The gains in stocks following the midterm elections have occurred due to no single factor. One reason may be that investors prefer the certainty of knowing the makeup of the federal government and potential policy changes.

Moreover, some believe that because the president’s party typically loses ground in the midterm elections, it reduces the likelihood of policy changes that could have a negative impact on the economy. This, in turn, can provide a tailwind for stocks. The potential for gridlock, rather than sweeping policy and regulatory changes, is usually welcomed by investors.

How Did the 2022 Midterm Elections Affect the Stock Market?

It is always difficult to say how any midterm election cycle will affect the stock market. But we can look at the most recent midterm election, in 2022, to get a sense. Immediately following the election, on November 8, 2022, the S&P 500 did see an increase – but in December, the market later fell before gaining steam again in January.

So, it’s difficult to say how much the elections weighed on the markets, aside from other factors. During that time, for instance, rising inflation and interest rates may have been playing a larger role in the market’s performance than other variables.

But broadly and historically, again, the most obvious way the midterm elections could impact the markets is that if one party or the other gains control of Congress, that could influence economic policy and the country’s direction. This could lead to tax policy, regulation, and spending changes that could impact businesses and the stock market.
Another potential impact of the midterm elections is that if there is a change in control of Congress, that could lead to more investigations and subpoenas of businesses and individuals, which could create uncertainty that investors and the markets may not like.

The Takeaway

The history of midterm elections is one of cycles: the party in power typically loses ground during midterm elections, and the opposition party typically gains ground. And these cycles are also evident in the performance of the stock market, with muted stock gains in the year of a midterm election and substantial gains the year following the elections.

But despite these historical trends, no one can say for sure how the midterm elections will impact the stock market. And investors shouldn’t necessarily rely on these trends when making investing decisions. Instead, investors might want to try and maintain a long-term view to reach financial goals, avoiding the short-term noise and uncertainty of elections and politics. Investors should continue to focus on asset allocation, risk tolerance, and the time horizon of a diversified portfolio to achieve financial goals.

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SOIN-Q324-028

Sep

2024

How to Invest During a Recession

By Colin Dodds | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, Investing | No Comments

When the economy contracts and enters a recession, it’s often accompanied by rising unemployment and a declining stock market. For that reason, some investors are caught on their heels, unsure of what to do. But some simple strategies may help investors invest during a recession – and there can be some surprising benefits to doing so.

It may be a good idea to try and keep in mind that because your investments may be trending downward, you shouldn’t let fear or your emotions override your strategy. That’s not easy, of course, but may be helpful to keep in mind.

What You Need to Know About Investing in a Recession

Investors looking to buy and sell stocks or other securities during a time of economic upheaval need to keep many things in mind.

A recession describes a contraction in economic activity, often, though not officially defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of decline in the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially declares recessions, takes a broader view — including indicators like wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, employment, and real income.

The point is that the markets tend to price in those indicators, so much so that you may see the prices of stocks start to drop (and bond prices start to rise) even before a recession is officially declared. For example, the S&P 500 Index declined significantly from October 9, 2007, through March 9, 2009, a bear market that started two months before the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009.

From those lows in March 2009, the S&P 500 delivered a return of 400% through February 2020, surpassing the previous peak in April 2013. Those that stayed in the market despite unprecedented economic declines were still able to experience a positive return.

But that stock volatility can give investors the jitters — and that emotional state that can be contagious.

Behavioral finance experts have dubbed this tendency “herd mentality,” which means you’re more likely to behave similarly to a larger group than you realize. Combine that behavioral bias with another common one — loss aversion — and you can see how emotions can lead some investors to make impulsive choices in a moment of panic or doubt.

However, there is some good news: history shows that most recessions don’t last as long as you might think — about 17 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). So while an economic downturn can be scary while it lasts, it’s likely that time is on your side.

By staying the course and sticking with your investment strategy (and not yielding to emotion), the market recovery could help you recoup any losses and possibly see some gains — especially if you buy the dip (when prices are low). Though, remember, that nothing is guaranteed.

Investing Strategies for a Recession

The following are a few investment strategies that may help investors weather a recession:

Dollar-Cost Averaging

While it’s critical for investors to stay true to their long-term strategy during a recession, what about investing new money? This is where the concept of dollar-cost averaging is important for investors to keep in mind.

Dollar-cost averaging, simply put, is a systematic way of investing a fixed amount of money regularly. It’s often used to describe the way most people invest, on a paycheck-by-paycheck basis, through workplace 401(k) and 403(b) plans.

This approach spreads the cost basis out over a long period of time and a wide range of prices. By doing so, it provides a degree of insulation against market fluctuations. During times of rapidly rising share prices, the investor will have a higher cost basis than they otherwise would have had. During times of collapsing stock prices, the investor will have a lower cost basis than they otherwise would have had.

Taken together, then, dollar-cost averaging can help you pay less for your investments on average over time and help to improve long-term returns.

Buy and Hold

Because most investors invest with a long-term time horizon, it may be best to employ a buy and hold investment strategy. This strategy can often be paired with a dollar-cost averaging strategy.

In short, a buy and hold strategy is a passive strategy in which investors buy stocks, exchange-traded funds, and other securities and hold on to them for a long time.

By buying and holding, investors believe that they are likely to earn long-term investment returns despite whatever short-term market volatility may come their way. They think an extended time horizon allows them to ride out short-term dips in the market.

This strategy can also help investors avoid emotional investing or trying to time the market.

Rebalancing

Investors try to gauge how close or far they are from their goals because your time horizon determines how you invest. For instance, a younger investor may have a portfolio that’s heavier in growth stocks and lighter when it comes to bonds and cash.

For an investor nearing an important goal, like retirement, the priority may be safety and security or investments like high-quality (but lower-yielding) bonds. Over time, investors need to rebalance their portfolios, shifting the allocation of different asset classes. A younger investor may start with an allocation of 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash. But as they near retirement, that equity allocation might shift toward 50% stocks or even lower.

Tax-Loss Harvesting

A recession can also be a chance to sell out of a mix of investments, owing to tax considerations. Investors can take advantage of tax-loss harvesting by selling stocks or mutual funds that have appreciated alongside those that have lost value. This strategy allows investors to use investments that have declined in value to offset investment gains and potentially reduce their annual tax bill.

When an investor wants to reduce capital gains taxes they owe on investments they’ve sold, tax-loss harvesting can allow an investor to deduct $3,000 in losses per year. As such, the strategy can be the silver lining on investments that didn’t work out.

Potential Investments During a Recession

It’s worth remembering some investments tend to perform better than others during recessions. Recessions are generally bad news for highly leveraged, cyclical, and speculative companies. These companies may not have the resources to withstand a rocky market.

By contrast, the companies that have traditionally survived and even outperformed during a downturn are companies with very little debt and strong cash flow. If those companies are in traditionally recession-resistant sectors, like essential consumer goods, utilities, defense contractors, and discount retailers, they may deserve closer consideration.

Some investors might also seek out even more defensive positions during a recession by buying real estate, precious metals (e.g., gold), or investing in established, dividend-paying stocks.

Additionally, some investors may look to move some money out of riskier investments like stocks, bonds, or commodities and into cash and cash equivalents. For some investors, having adequate cash on hand or having money invested in certificates of deposit (CDs) and money market funds may be a good option for a portfolio during a recession.

Bear in mind that every recession impacts different sectors in different ways. During the Great Recession of 2008-09, financial companies suffered — because it was a financial crisis. In 2020, biotech companies tended to thrive, but investments in energy companies have been hit harder owing to fluctuating oil prices.

As an investor, you must do the math on where the risks and opportunities lie during a recession.

What to Avoid In a Recession

During a recession, it’s important to remember two key tenets that will help you stick to your investing strategy. The first is: While markets change, your financial goals don’t. The second is: Paper losses aren’t real until you cash out.

The first tenet refers to the fact that investors go into the market because they want to achieve certain financial goals. Those goals are often years or decades in the future. But as noted above, the typically shorter-term nature of a recession may not ultimately impact those longer-term financial plans. So, most investors want to avoid changing their financial goals and strategies on the fly just because the economy and financial markets are declining.

The second tenet is a caveat for the many investors who watch their investments — even their long-term ones — far too closely. While markets can decline and account balances can fall, those losses aren’t real until an investor sells their investments. If you wait, it’s possible you’ll see some of those paper losses regain their value.

So, investors should generally avoid panicking and making rash decisions to sell their investments in the face of down markets. Panicked and emotional selling may lead you into the trap of “buying high and selling low,” the opposite of what most investors are trying to do.

The Takeaway

Investing during a recession is really what you make of it. While market volatility can spark investor worries, it’s possible to manage your emotions, stay in control of your investment strategy, and possibly come out ahead. Sticking to some broad strategies may be able to help, such as dollar-cost averaging or a buy-and-hold approach. Of course, nothing will guarantee that you generate positive returns during a recession, but certain strategies may help buoy your portfolio during economic upheaval.

¹Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $3,000 in the stock of your choice.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SOIN-Q324-026

Sep

2024

Guide to Block Trades

By Colin Dodds | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Block trades are big under-the-radar trades, generally carried out in private. Because of their size, block trades have the potential to move the markets. For that reason they’re conducted by special groups known as block houses. And while they’re considered legal, block trades are not regulated by the SEC.

As a retail investor, you likely won’t have anything to do with block trades, but it’s a good idea to know what they are, how they work, and how they can affect the overall market.

Key Points

• Block trades are large-volume purchases or sales of financial assets, often conducted by institutional investors.

• Block trades can move the market for a security and are executed through block trade facilities, dark pools, or block houses.

• Block trades are used to avoid market disruption and can be broken down into smaller trades to conceal their size.

• Retail investors may find it difficult to detect block trades, but they can provide insights into short-term market movements and sentiment.

• Block trades are legal and not regulated by the SEC, but they can be perceived as unfair by retail investors.

What Are Block Trades?

A block trade is a single purchase or sale of a large volume of financial assets. A block, as defined by the New York Stock Exchange’s Rule 127.10, is a minimum of 10,000 shares of stock. For bonds, a block trade usually involves at least $200,000 worth of a given fixed-income security.

Though 10,000 shares is the operative figure, the number of shares involved in most block trades is far higher. Individuals typically don’t execute block trades. Rather, they most often come from institutional investors, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, or other large-scale investors.

Why Do Block Trades Exist?

Block trades are often so large that they can move the market for a given security. If a pension fund manager, for example, plans to sell one million shares of a particular stock without sparking a broader market selloff, selling all those shares on a public market will take some time.

During that process, the value of the shares the manager is selling will likely go down — the market sees a drop in demand, and values decrease accordingly. Sometimes, the manager will sell even more slowly. But that creates the risk that other traders will identify the institution or the fund behind the sale. Then, those investors might short the stock to take advantage.

Those same risks exist for a fund manager who is buying large blocks of a given security on a public market. The purchase itself can drive up the price, again, as the market sees an increase in demand. And if the trade attracts attention, other traders may front-run the manager’s purchases.

How Block Trades Are Executed

Many large institutions conduct their block trades through block trade facilities, dark pools, or block houses, in an effort to avoid influencing the market. Most of those institutions typically have expertise in both initiating and executing very large trades, without having a major — and costly — effect on the price of a given security.

Every one of these non-public exchange services operates according to its own rules when it comes to block trades, but what they have in common is relationships with hedge funds and others that can buy and sell large blocks of securities. By connecting these large buyers and sellers, blockhouses and dark pools offer the ability to make often enormous trades without roiling the markets.

Investment banks and large brokerages often have a division known as a block house. These block houses run dark pools, which are called such because the public can’t see the trades they’re making until at least a day after they’ve been executed.

Dark pools have been growing in popularity. In 2020, there were more than 50 dark pools registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States. At the end of 2023, dark pools executed about 15% of all U.S. equity trades.

Smaller Trades Are Used to Hide Block Trades

To help institutional traders conceal their block trades and keep the market from shifting, blockhouses may use a series of maneuvers to conceal the size of the trade being executed. At their most basic, these strategies involve breaking up the block into smaller trades. But they can be quite sophisticated, such as “iceberg orders,” in which the block house will break block orders into a large number of limit orders.

By using an automated program to make the smaller limit orders, they can hide the actual number of orders at any given time. That’s where the “iceberg” in the name comes from — the limit orders that other traders can see are just the tip of the iceberg.

Taken together, these networks of traders who make block trades are often referred to as the Upstairs Market, because their trades occur off the trading floor.

Pros and Cons of Block Trades

As with most things in the investment field and markets, block trades have their pros and cons. Read on to see a rundown of each.

Pros of Block Trades

The most obvious advantage of block trades is that they allow for large trades to commence without warping the market. Again, since large trades can have an effect on market values, block trades, done under the radar, can avoid causing undue volatility.

Block trades can be used to conceal information, too, which can also be a “pro” in the eyes of the involved parties. If Company A stock is moving in a block trade for a specific reason, traders outside of the block trade wouldn’t know about it.

Block trades are also not regulated by the SEC, meaning there are fewer hoops to jump through.

Cons of Block Trades

While masking a large, market-changing trade may be a good thing for those involved with the trade, it isn’t necessarily a positive thing for everyone else in the market. As such, block trades can veil market movements which may be perceived as unfair by retail investors, who are trading none the wiser.

Block trades can be hard to detect, too, as mentioned. Since they’re designed to be obscure to the greater market, it can be difficult to tell when a block trade is actually occuring.

Block trades are also not regulated by the SEC — it’s a pro, and a con. The SEC doesn’t regulate them, but rather the individual stock exchanges. That may not sit well with some investors.

Block Trade Example

An example of a block trade could be as follows: A large investment bank wants to sell one million shares of Company A stock. If they were to do so all at once, Company A’s stock would drop — if they do it somewhat slowly, the rest of the market may see what’s going on, and sell their shares in Company A, too. That would cause the value of Company A stock to fall before the investment bank is able to sell all of its shares.

To avoid that, the investment bank uses a block house, which breaks the large trade up into smaller trades, which are then traded through different brokerages. The single large trade now appears to be many smaller ones, masking its original origin.

Are Block Trades Legal?

Block trades are legal, but within stock market history they exist in something of a gray area. As mentioned, “blocks” are defined by rules from the New York Stock Exchange. But regulators like the SEC have not issued a legal definition of their own.

Further, while they can move markets, block trades are not considered market manipulation. They’re simply a method used by large investors to adjust their asset allocation with the least market disruption and stock volatility possible.

How Block Trades Impact Individual Investors

Institutional investors wouldn’t go to such lengths to conceal their block trades unless the information offered by a block trade was valuable. A block trade can offer clues about the short-term future movement and liquidity of a given security. Or it can indicate that market sentiment is shifting.

For retail (aka individual) investors, it can also be hard to know what a block trade indicates. A large trade that looks like the turning of the tide for a popular stock may just be a giant mutual fund making a minor adjustment.

But it is possible for retail investors to find information about block trades. There are a host of digital tools, some offered by mainstream online brokerages, that function like block trade indicators. This might be useful for trading stocks online.

Many of these tools use Nasdaq Quotation Dissemination Service (NQDS), Level 2 data. This subscription service offers investors access to the NASDAQ order book in real time. Its data feed includes price quotes from the market makers who are registered to trade every NASDAQ and OTC Bulletin Board security, and is popular among investors who trade using market depth and market momentum.

Even access to tools like that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy to find block trades, though. Some blockhouses design their strategies, such as the aforementioned “iceberg orders,” to make them hard to detect on Level 2. But when combined with software filters, investors have a better chance of glimpsing these major trades before they show up later on the consolidated tape, which records all trades through blockhouses and dark pools — though often well after those trades have been fully executed.

These software tools vary widely in both sophistication and cost, but may be worth considering, depending on how serious of a trader you are. At the very least, using software to scan for block trades is a way to keep track of what large institutional investors and fund managers are buying and selling. Active traders may use the information to spot new trends.

The Takeaway

Block trades are large movements of securities, typically done under-the-radar, involving 10,000 or so shares, and around $200,000 in value. It can be difficult for individual investors to detect block trades — which, again, are giant position shifts by institutional investors — on their own.

But these trades have some benefits for individual investors. The mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that most investors have in their brokerage accounts, IRAs, 401(k)s and 529 plans may take advantage of the lower trading costs and volatility-dampening benefits of block trades, and pass along those savings to their shareholders.

¹Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $3,000 in the stock of your choice.

Photo credit: iStock/marchmeena29

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SOIN-Q324-031

Sep

2024

ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing Strategies: How Are They Different?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Impact investing is a broad category that includes a wide range of strategies; among them are two that are focused on the environment as well as social and governance issues: ESG (for environmental, social, and governance issues) and SRI (for socially responsible investing).

Investors who are interested in making an impact with their investing dollars may want to consider funds that embrace ESG or SRI strategies, but impact investing can include other goals as well (e.g., investing in or avoiding certain industries or sectors, or goals).

While there are ways in which these three strategies overlap, it’s important to understand the distinctions as they pertain to your own investing goals.

Key Points

• Impact investing refers to strategies that focus on having a measurable impact on certain companies, industries, or sectors.

• Impact investing is a broad category that can include a range of strategies, including ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and SRI (socially responsible investing), as well as others.

• As investor interest in ESG and SRI strategies has grown, so have inflows to funds that adhere to certain standards.

• Despite investor interest, standards and metrics vary widely when it comes to ESG, SRI, or any other type of impact investing.

Understanding ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

These days, numerous companies seek to meet certain ethical, social, environmental, or other standards. While some criteria have been inspired by the United Nations’ Principles for Responsible Investment, or the U.N.’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, investors need to bear in mind that the definition of ESG, SRI, and impact investing can vary from company to company, from country to country.

Nonetheless, investor interest in these strategies continues to grow. In fact, 67% of asset owners (e.g. institutional investors) say that over the last five years ESG standards have become even more critical to the investment process, according to a 2023 survey by Morningstar, the fund research and rating company.

As a result a number of companies have developed proprietary screening tools and scoring methods to help investors assess different investments, including stocks, bonds, ETFs, and more.

Defining ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

That being said, the lack of clearcut ESG and SRI standards dates back to the very beginnings of these strategies.

As early as the 18th century, religious groups like the Methodists would take a financial stand against certain societal problems (e.g., the slave trade or alcohol and tobacco manufacturing) by not investing in related organizations. This values-based approach became known over time as impact investing.

Today, ESG and SRI investing can be considered modern offshoots of that philosophy — but typically with a focus on investing proactively in certain companies or sectors with the goal of supporting specific changes or outcomes.

It’s still possible to invest in ESG and SRI strategies that explicitly avoid certain industries, companies, or types of products (e.g., avoiding companies known to use child labor).

Impact investing tends to be used interchangeably with the term values investing, as well as ESG and SRI investing, but again these strategies have different aims and standards.

Impact Investing

The goal of impact investing is for investments to have a positive, measurable impact in a given area. That might mean avoiding industries (e.g. alcohol or weapons), or investing directly in social, environmental, political, or other concerns.

Some mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may utilize impact investing strategies, but impact investing may also involve private funds, such as closed-end private equity and venture capital funds. This is partly because some public companies have to prioritize financial goals to meet shareholder expectations or earnings forecasts, and impact goals alone may not suffice (more on profitability below).

Following are some examples of impact investing categories:

Impact Category	Metrics
Environmental	• Trees planted • Solar panels installed • Greenhouse gas emissions limited or reduced
Women’s Empowerment	• Female founders supported • Number of female employees
Jobs and Education	• Jobs created • Income creation • Access and enrollment targets
Affordable Housing	• People housed • Number of units built
Essential Services	• Individuals in need of bank accounts • Patients served in medical facilities

ESG Investing

ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance factors. It’s a set of criteria that can help investors evaluate companies according to how well they uphold or meet relevant criteria, in addition to financial concerns.

ESG investing is considered a form of sustainable or impact investing, but companies that embrace this term theoretically must focus on positive results in those three areas.

When ESG strategies started gaining more attention in the 1960s, some investors assumed ESG investing was primarily about values and ethics. Over time investors come to realize that ESG strategies may also impact a company’s financials. For example, ESG reporting can help illuminate potential risks to company performance, not only progress toward sustainability goals.

Still, adoption of ESG reporting and analysis has been slow owing to a lack of consistency around standards and metrics for meeting these criteria. While the SEC adopted new rules in early 2024 to help “standardize climate-related disclosures by public companies and in public offerings,” it soon stayed those rules when a number of groups filed petitions for review in multiple courts of appeals.

Overall, there is still quite a bit of variance in these standards.

However, the table below shows some common ways to assess a company’s adherence to ESG standards:

Environmental	Social	Governance
Energy consumption	Community engagement and support	Diversity in the board of directors
Waste and pollution	Human and labor rights	Management performance
Climate change mitigation and adaptation	Health and safety impacts on products, local areas, etc.	Executive compensation
Conservation and protection of biodiversity	Shareholder relations	Corruption
Resource management, such as water usage and sanitation	Employee relations	Disclosures and transparency

SRI

Socially responsible investing, or SRI, is another impact investing category that focuses on social and ethical issues. SRI mutual funds were among the first values-based investment products on the market.

While SRI is similar to ESG, it’s more broadly defined. Unlike ESG investing, which revolves around a set of standards, SRI doesn’t have clearly defined criteria, and investment strategies vary depending on the company.

SRI-focused investors might choose to avoid certain investments or industries, or choose companies that specifically work on or donate to certain causes. Investors may need to evaluate companies and funds based on their own criteria.
SRI investing strategies can include a focus on one or more of the following:

• Alternatives to fossil fuels (e.g., clean energy like wind or solar technologies)

• Avoiding so-called vice industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, gambling

• Investing in female or minority-led companies, or companies with a social justice mission

• Avoiding companies relating to arms manufacturing and the military

• Investing in companies that adhere to human rights standards

• Supporting specific environmental outcomes, e.g. mitigating air and water pollution, safer agricultural practices, and so on

Is Sustainable Investing Different from ESG, SRI, and Impact Strategies?

Sustainable investing strategies can encompass SRI as well as ESG strategies. And while some investors use sustainable investing and impact investing interchangeably, it’s important to remember that not all impact investing is sustainable in nature.

Can SRI or ESG Investing Be Profitable?

The performance of SRI and ESG strategies versus their conventional peers have long been subject to debate. Nonetheless, the value of assets allocated to ETFs with an ESG focus has grown steadily in the last two decades. As of November 2023, according to data from Statista, the value of global assets in ESG funds was $480 billion — a substantial jump from $5 billion in 2006.

Investors interested in SRI and ESG strategies may want to examine the FTSE4Good Index Series: a compilation of stock indexes that track companies that seek to meet certain criteria or achieve certain environmental, social, or corporate governance goals. Morningstar has also developed a sustainability rating system, in use since 2016.

The Takeaway

Investors may want to bear in mind that, with the steady growth of ESG and SRI strategies in the last couple of decades, investment opportunities that focus on having an impact on the world are likely to expand.

In addition, the underlying goal of these strategies is to make a difference and potentially see a profit as well. That said, impact strategies overall don’t reduce investment risk factors; all types of impact investing, including ESG and SRI strategies, are subject to the same economic and market risk factors as conventional strategies.

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Sep

2024

Understanding the Presidential Election Cycle Theory

By Inyoung Hwang | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory suggests that the stock market follows a pattern that correlates with a U.S. president’s four-year term.

The first two years of a term tend to be the weakest for stocks, according to the theory, as the president focuses on fulfilling campaign promises, but the market improves in the latter half of a term as the president pumps up the economy ahead of a new election.

Some historical stock market data does tend to sync up with the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, but past performance is not indicative of future results.

And market researchers and investors tend to be doubtful of the strategy, chalking it up to statistical coincidence as opposed to a real sign of a U.S. president’s power over the market.

They argue that company earnings, global economic data, and Federal Reserve monetary policy tend to be bigger influences on stock prices.

What Is the Election Cycle Theory?

Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has data going back to 1833 in order to study the Presidential Election Cycle Theory. Below are the average stock market percentage gains in the four calendar years after a presidential election, according to the almanac’s 2020 edition.

Hirsch used the Dow Jones Industrial Average to track stock market performance after 1896 and other stock gauges for the years prior:

Postelection year: 3%
Midterm year: 4%
Preelection year: 10.2%
Election year: 6%

In a Wall Street Journal interview in November 2019, however, Jeffrey Hirsch, the son of Yale Hirsch, said that not all the historical data is relevant. Market observers have argued that going further back in history, U.S. presidents had even less sway over the stock market than in current times.

But according to Hirsch, the theory that the stock market is strongest in the third year of a presidential term has held up.

The almanac states that since 1943, in the third year of the presidential election cycle, both the Dow and S&P 500 have been up 15% on average. Meanwhile, since 1971, the Nasdaq indices have climbed 28.8% on average in the third year.

That’s because “incumbent administrations shamelessly attempt to massage the economy so voters will keep them in power,” the almanac states.

Stimulative fiscal measures designed to increase disposable income and a sense of well-being in the voting public have included:

• Increases in federal budget deficits, government spending, and Social Security benefits

• Interest rate cuts on government loans

• Speedups of projected funding

Other points in the Presidential Election Cycle Theory:

• Wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to occur in first two years; prosperity and bull markets in the second two years

• The market performed better in election years when a sitting president is running. Since 1949, the Dow climbed 10.1% during election years when the incumbent is up for reelection vs. 5.3% in all election years and 1.6% in years with an open field

• Times when the stock market rose between August and October in a presidential election year, the incumbent political party has retained power 85% of the time since 1936

• Markets tend to be stronger when the incumbent party in power wins

Does History Back Up the Presidential Election Cycle Theory?

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory hasn’t held up well in recent presidential administrations. The S&P 500 posted a strong gain of 19% in 2017, the first year of President Donald Trump’s term. The market also surged 29% in 2019, Trump’s third year and the best annual performance of his administration.

In each of President Barack Obama’s two terms, the first year saw the best annual performance, with the S&P 500 rallying 23% in 2009 and 30% in 2013.

Separately, the stock market has tended to rise more than fall, making the case that charting patterns with the election cycle may have more to do with coincidence. Since 1833, equity prices have risen in 115 calendar years and fallen in 70, data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows.

Barron’s also noted in November 2019, citing data from Ned Davis Research, that the weakest time in a four-year presidential cycle has historically actually been September of the pre-election year to May of the election year. Once the winner is determined, the market tends to rally regardless of political party.

Other political factors could also be in play, such as midterm elections. Barron’s also wrote in 2018 that the stock market’s performance during midterm election years hasn’t been stellar. Since 1942, the S&P 500 has gained 6% on average in midterm years, compared with 9.1% during the average year, the article stated, citing Ned Davis Research.

What About This Time Around?

Election Day is November 5, 2024, and the new four-year presidential term will start on January 20, 2025.

In the past, uncertainty over the outcome of a presidential election has led to declines in the stock market. In 2000, confusion over hanging chads in the Florida ballot count meant the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore didn’t come to a swift conclusion.

Investor uncertainty over the outcome caused the stock market to plummet. Markets rebounded after the Supreme Court decision that ultimately resulted in a Bush win.

The conventional wisdom on Wall Street has been that a split government usually leads to strength in the stock market, as the division in power will lead to less ambitious policy changes.

So the potential outcome of a Democrat in the White House and both parties splitting Congress could lead to gains for the Dow and S&P 500. That said, business publications have reported that there is little evidence to back this idea up.

In the 45 years that the same party controlled Congress and the presidency, the S&P 500’s average return was 7.45%, the Wall Street Journal found. In the 46 years power was split, the average return was 7.26%. The index actually slightly outperformed when control of the presidency and Congress was unified under one party.

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What Does The Presidential Election Cycle Mean for Investors?

The history of U.S. presidential elections may not be a big enough sample set for making investment decisions.

An array of factors beyond presidential election cycles influences share prices. Investors typically monitor company earnings, global and U.S. economic data, events like natural disasters and pandemics, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Separately, periods of uncertainty—whether in monetary or fiscal policy—can also shape market performance.

Annual returns also don’t capture the stock volatility that could have happened during the year. For instance, the stock market rallied in 2020, but it also entered into a bear market, a drop of 20% or more, in the first half amid investor worries over the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the global economy.

The Takeaway

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory states that the stock market’s performance improves in the four-year terms of US presidents as they gear up for reelection. Some investors say, however, that other factors, like corporate earnings and central bank policy, are bigger influences on share prices.

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Does History Back Up the Presidential Election Cycle Theory?

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