Mar
14
2023
Guide to Risk Neutral Probability

Guide to Risk Neutral Probability

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on Guide to Risk Neutral Probability

“Risk neutral,” in the context of investing, means that an investor focuses on the expected gains of a potential investment rather than its accompanying risks. This concept comes up frequently in options trading, as it’s one of the core tenets in how options are valued.

Risk neutrality is more of a conceptual focus for valuation than a strategy that’s applied on a daily basis. It’s often used as a conceptual framework for the valuation of options and other complex derivatives by sophisticated investment firms.

What Is Risk Neutral?

Risk-neutral investors are solely concerned with the expected returns of an investment, regardless of its underlying risks. When confronted with a gamble versus a sure thing, risk neutral investors are indifferent as long as the expected value of both options balance out.

Risk Neutral vs Risk Averse

Contrast risk neutrality with “risk aversion,” which does consider risk and strongly prefers certainty when comparing investment alternatives. While risk averse investors consider expected value, they will also demand a “risk premium,” or additional benefit, for taking on any additional risk in a transaction. This is what leads to their preference for the more “certain” option, even when the mathematical expected value of two alternative investments is the same.

Risk neutral investors are indifferent between investment options with the same expected values, regardless of the accompanying risk factors. The concept of risk does not play into a risk-neutral investor’s decision-making process, and no risk premium is demanded for uncertain outcomes with equal expected values.

In reality, most retail investors are risk averse, e.g. they have a low risk tolerance, rather than risk neutral. It’s easy to spot this investor preference, given the incessant focus of financial firms on mitigating risk. Terms like “risk-adjusted returns” are frequently used, and entire doctrines in behavioral economics and game theory are built around the cornerstones of loss or risk-aversion.

The difference between risk-neutral vs. risk-averse investors can be illustrated using an example comparing separate sets of probabilities.

Example of Risk Neutrality

To illustrate risk neutrality, consider a hypothetical situation with two investment options: one which involves a guaranteed payoff of $100, while the other involves a gamble, with a 50% chance of a $200 payoff and a 50% chance you receive nothing.

In our hypothetical scenario, the risk neutral investor would be indifferent between the two options, as the expected value (EV) in both cases equals $100.

1.    EV = 100% probability X $100 = $100

2.    EV = (50% probability X $200) + (50% probability X $0) = $100 + 0 = $100

However, a risk averse investor would introduce the added variable of risk into their decision, thereby unbalancing the alternatives above. Given that the 2nd option involves uncertainty, and therefore risk, the risk averse investor would demand an added payoff to justify taking on any added risk.

Reframing the problem above, the risk averse investor would choose option 1, given a) both options return the same expected value, and b) option 1 involves the greatest certainty.

On the other hand, the risk neutral investor would remain indifferent, as risk does not factor into their decision-making process.

Finally, user-friendly options trading is here.*

Trade options with SoFi Invest on an easy-to-use, intuitively designed online platform.

*Check out the OCC Options Disclosure Document.

Risk Neutral Pricing and Valuation

Conceptually, risk neutrality is used extensively in valuing derivative securities because it establishes a theoretical basis for finding the equilibrium price between buyers and sellers in any transaction. It’s therefore an important aspect of options trading strategies.

Given that risk-averse investors demand a premium for taking on additional risk, while each individual investor’s risk tolerance can differ. This risk premium can present a problem from an analytical perspective; it introduces “noise” and analytical complexity which can complicate the pricing of derivatives and other investments.

Conceptually, the value of an investment is calculated as the present value of all its current and future cash flows. Future cash flows are discounted using its expected rate of return, which factors in the risk-neutral rate of return along with any added risk premia.

While the risk-neutral rate of return can be assumed to be the same for a given set of investments, the risk premium can vary according to the risk tolerance of individual investors, which complicates the present value calculation, additionally it often skews the calculated value of a security below what the expected future benefit might imply.

To adjust for this complexity in derivatives trading, mathematicians and financial professionals often find it useful to apply risk-neutral measures when pricing derivatives.

Understanding Risk Neutral Probability

The concept of risk neutrality is used to find objective pricing for derivatives; risk neutral probability therefore removes the noisy risk factor from calculations when finding fair value.

This differs from real-world risk-based pricing, which introduces any number of security-specific or market-based factors back into the calculation. The downside of this “real-world probability” is that it makes calculating value an exceedingly complex exercise, as you would need to make fine-tuning adjustments for almost every unique factor that might affect your investment.

Ultimately, risk-neutral probabilities allow you to apply a consistent single rate towards the valuation of all assets for which the expected payoff is known. This allows for ease and simplicity when approaching the valuation process.

However, that’s not to say that risk-aversion and other costs are not factored into calculations, as risk-averse investors would never choose to accept trades that don’t offer risk premiums over the long run.

Instead, risk-neutral probabilities represent the basis on which to build your investment valuation thesis, allowing you to selectively layer on any number of other risk factors later in the process.

Investing Today

Identifying what type of investor you are is important before diving in. If you’re a risk-neutral investor, choosing between risky and non-risky investments will be based on expected values.

If you are risk averse, your investment opportunities will need to be assessed based on whether you are receiving a risk premium commensurate with the risk you perceive.

If you want to learn more about risk and investing, SoFi Invest is a great place to get started. When you set up an online stock trading account, you have access to a range of self-directed options for both brokerage and retirement investing.

Remember that options trading is complex and can entail significant risk for new investors. It’s important to establish a solid investing foundation before moving onto more advanced trading strategies like options trading.

With SoFi, user-friendly options trading is finally here.

FAQ

Is risk neutral the same as risk free?

Risk neutral does not imply risk free. Risk neutral is simply a conceptual approach for evaluating trade offs without the impact of risk-factors.

Risk continues to exist in the context of each investment when evaluating tradeoffs; risk neutral simply suspends risk as a factor in the evaluation process.

What makes some companies risk neutral?

From a theoretical perspective, companies behave in a risk-neutral manner because firms have the means to hedge their risks away. They can do this by purchasing insurance, buying financial derivatives, or transferring their risk to other parties. This allows them to focus on expected outcomes rather than the risk-related costs of those decisions.

Conceptually, shareholders also want firms to make decisions in a risk-neutral manner, as individual investors can hedge risk exposure themselves by buying the shares of any number of other firms to diversify and offset these risk factors.

What is an example of risk neutral?

An example of risk neutral would be an individual who’s indifferent between 1) a 100% chance of receiving $1,000, versus 2) a 50% chance of receiving $2,000, and a 50% chance of receiving nothing.

In both cases, the expected value would be $1,000, after calculating for both probability and return. This expected value would be what risk-neutral investors would focus on. By contrast, a risk-averse individual would choose option 1, as the outcome has more certainty (and less risk).

Photo credit: iStock/Szepy

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
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Mar
14
2023
401(k) Blackout Periods: All You Need to Know

401(k) Blackout Periods: All You Need to Know

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on 401(k) Blackout Periods: All You Need to Know

A 401(k) blackout period is a hiatus during which plan participants may not make certain changes to their 401(k) accounts. Employers who offer 401(k) plans typically impose blackouts when they need to update or alter aspects of their plans. A blackout period may last anywhere from a few days to several weeks.

A blackout period doesn’t mean that the account is frozen. Employees in a payroll deduction plan can often continue making scheduled contributions to their 401(k) accounts during a blackout period, and assets held in 401(k) accounts remain invested in the market.

What Is a 401(k) Blackout Period?

As noted above, a 401(k) blackout period is a temporary suspension of employees’ ability to access their 401(k) accounts for actions such as withdrawals or portfolio adjustments. Companies use blackout periods to update or change their 401(k) retirement savings plans. Unfortunately, these blackout periods may sometimes be inconvenient for employees.

When Is a 401(k) Blackout Period Necessary?

There are several situations that might call for an employer to implement a 401(k) blackout period. Some common reasons include:

•   Changes to the plan. Employers may need to implement a blackout period to allow for changes to their 401(k) plans, such as adding or eliminating investment alternatives or modifying the terms of the plan.

•   New management. If an employer’s 401(k) plan is managed by a third party, the employer might decide to change sponsors or financial managers. A blackout period would give the employer time to transfer the assets and records.

•   Mergers and acquisitions. Acquisition of a new firm or a merger with another company could require a blackout period while the two companies integrate their 401(k) plans.

•   Issues with compliance. If an employer finds that the terms of their 401(k) plan violate federal laws, they may need to impose a blackout period while they conduct audits and bring the plan into compliance.

How Long Can a 401(k) Blackout Period Last?

A 401(k) blackout period can last for a few days or for a few weeks, but the typical duration is 10 days. The length often depends on the reason for the blackout and how much time it will take to implement the scheduled fixes. There is no legal maximum blackout period for 401(k) plans.

Will I Be Given a 401(k) Blackout Notice?

Employers are required to notify employees in advance of a blackout period. For blackout periods expected to last more than three days, employers must give at least 30 days’ (and not more than 60 days’) notice, according to the federal Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA). If the period’s beginning or ending date changes, employers are expected to provide an updated blackout notice as soon as reasonably possible.

Employers must provide this notice in writing, either by mail or email. The notice should include the reason for the blackout.

What Should I Do Before the Blackout Starts?

If a 401(k) blackout period is approaching, there are some steps you can take to prepare. Here are a few things to consider doing before the blackout starts:

•   Review the account. Once you get your blackout notice, take some time to review your 401(k) plan, including your current contributions, investment options, and overall balance. This overview can help you zero in on anything that may need correction before the blackout begins.

•   Make any appropriate changes. If you need to fine-tune how you’re investing in your 401(k), such as by adjusting contribution amounts or reallocating investments, try to do so before the blackout period. This will help ensure that your changes take effect as soon as possible.

•   Communicate with your employer. For questions about the blackout period or requests for additional information, your employer is likely to be the best resource. They should be able to provide more details and address account-related concerns.

Starting Out With a New 401(k)

People starting a new job that offers a 401(k) plan have some decisions to make. Plan details to consider before committing to a new 401(k) account may include:

•   Contribution limits. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) sets limits on annual 401(k) contributions. In 2023, the contribution limit is $22,500 for those under age 50 and $30,000 for those 50 and older. If you want to max out your 401(k), knowing these limits can help you schedule your contributions appropriately.

•   Investment options. Most 401(k) plans offer a range of investment vehicles, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and individual stocks. As you’re preparing for retirement, researching various asset types will help you see which ones align with your investment goals and risk tolerance.

•   Fees. Some 401(k) plans charge fees for services such as plan administration or investment management. Understanding how the plan’s fees may impact your overall returns is crucial.

•   Employer match. Many employers offer a matching contribution to employee 401(k) accounts. This means that the employer will kick in an additional percentage to augment an employee’s contributions. An employer match is a way of boosting your retirement savings, which may lead to bigger investment gains over time.

The Takeaway

Employees with 401(k) retirement accounts occasionally experience blackout periods. People may not access or alter their accounts during these breaks, which occur when employers and 401(k) plan sponsors need time to update or retool their retirement benefit plan. Blackout periods typically last for a few days or weeks. By law, participants must be notified at least 30 days ahead of a scheduled blackout period. This enables them to make any desired investment changes beforehand.

One convenient way of investing for retirement is through SoFi individual retirement accounts. You can open an online IRA account from your phone and start saving right away. If you have questions, SoFi has a team of professional advisors available to help.

Help grow your nest egg with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

What is a retirement-fund blackout period?

A 401(k) blackout period is a multi-day pause during which the employer or the plan administrator typically update or maintain the plan. During this time, employees can’t alter their 401(k) retirement accounts. Making withdrawals or changing asset allocations may be prohibited. Though a blackout period is temporary, it can last several weeks or more.

Can you contribute to your 401(k) during the blackout period?

This depends on the specific terms of the employer’s 401(k) plan and the blackout period. Some plans may allow employees to keep setting aside money in their 401(k) accounts during a blackout; others may not. Your employer or plan administrator will have information on your plan’s rules for contributions.

How do I get my 401(k) out of the blackout period?

In most cases, there is nothing you can do to avoid or shorten your 401(k) blackout period. A blackout period generally comes to an end once the employer or plan administrator has completed the necessary plan updates. If you have additional questions about the duration of the blackout period or how to access your account again, your employer should be able to answer them.

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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by email customer service at https://sofi.app.link/investchat. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.
Shares of ETFs must be bought and sold at market price, which can vary significantly from the Fund’s net asset value (NAV). Investment returns are subject to market volatility and shares may be worth more or less their original value when redeemed. The diversification of an ETF will not protect against loss. An ETF may not achieve its stated investment objective. Rebalancing and other activities within the fund may be subject to tax consequences.
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Mar
14
2023
Understanding Highly Compensated Employees (HCEs)

Understanding Highly Compensated Employees (HCEs)

By | invest, Investing, Preparing for Retirement | Comments Off on Understanding Highly Compensated Employees (HCEs)

Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rules require companies with 401(k) retirement plans to identify highly compensated employees (HCEs). An HCE, according to the IRS, passes either an ownership test or a compensation test. Someone owning more than 5% of the company would qualify as an HCE, as would someone who was compensated more than $135,000 for the 2022 tax year.

The IRS uses this information to help all employees receive fair treatment when participating in their 401(k). As a result, your HCE status can affect the amount you can contribute to your 401(k).

What Does It Mean to Be an HCE?

A highly compensated employee’s 401(k) contributions will be subject to additional scrutiny by the IRS. Again, you’re identified as an HCE if you either:

•   Owned more than 5% of the business this year or last year, regardless of how much compensation you earned or received, or

•   Received at least $135,000 in compensation for the 2022 tax year ($150,000 for 2023) and, if your employer so chooses, you were in the top 20% of employees ranked by compensation.

If you meet either of these criteria, you’re considered an HCE, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that you earn a higher salary.

For example, someone could own 6% of a business while also drawing a salary of less than $100,000 a year. Because they meet the ownership test, they would still be classified as an HCE.

It’s also possible for you to be on the higher end of your company’s salary range and yet not qualify as an HCE. This can happen if your company chooses to rank employees by pay. If your income is above the IRS’s HCE threshold but you still earn less than the highest-paid 20% of employees (while not owning 5% of the company), you don’t meet the definition of an HCE.

Highly Compensated Employee vs Key Employee

Highly compensated employees may or may not also be key employees. Under IRS rules, a key employee meets one of the following criteria:

•   An officer making over $200,000 for 2022 ($215,000 for 2023)

•   Someone who owns more than 5% of the business

•   A person who owns more than 1% of the business and also makes more than $150,000 a year

•   Someone who meets none of these conditions is a non-key employee.

In order for a highly compensated employee to be a key employee, they must pass the ownership or officer tests. For IRS purposes, ownership is determined on an aggregate basis. For example, if you and your spouse work for the same company and each own a 2.51% share, then you’d collectively pass the ownership test.

Benefits of Being a Highly Compensated Employee

Being a highly compensated employee can offer certain advantages. Here are some of the chief benefits of being an HCE:

•   Having an ownership stake in the company you work for may entail additional employee benefits or privileges, such as bonuses or the potential to purchase company stock at a discount.

•   Even with a high salary, you can still contribute to your 401(k) retirement plan, possibly with matching contributions from your employer.

•   You may be able to supplement 401(k) contributions with contributions to an individual retirement account (IRA) or health savings account (HSA).

There are, however, some downsides to consider if you’re under the HCE umbrella.

Disadvantages of Being a Highly Compensated Employee

Highly compensated employees are subject to additional oversight when making 401(k) contributions. If you’re an HCE, here are a few disadvantages to be aware of:

•   You may not be able to max out your 401(k) contributions each year.

•   Lower contribution rates could potentially result in a shortfall in your retirement savings goal.

•   Earning a higher income could make you ineligible to contribute to a Roth IRA for retirement.

•   Any excess contributions that get refunded to you will count as taxable income when you file your return.

Benefits

 Disadvantages
HCEs may get certain perks or bonuses. 401(k) contributions may be limited.
Can still contribute to a company retirement plan. Limits may make it more difficult to reach retirement goals.
Can still contribute to an IRA. High earnings may make you ineligible to contribute to a Roth IRA.
Refunds of excess contributions could raise employee’s taxable income.

Recommended: Rollover IRA vs. Regular IRA: What’s the Difference?

Nondiscrimination Regulatory Testing

The IRS requires employers to conduct 401(k) plan nondiscrimination compliance testing each year. The purpose of this testing is to ensure that highly compensated employees and non-highly compensated employees have a more level playing field when it comes to 401(k) contributions.

Employers calculate the average contributions of non-highly compensated employees when testing for nondiscrimination. Depending on the findings, highly compensated employees may have their contributions restricted in certain ways. If you aren’t sure, it’s best to ask someone in your HR department, or the plan sponsor.

If an employer reviews the plan and finds that it’s overweighted in favor of HCEs, the employer must take steps to correct the error. The IRS allows companies to do that by either making additional contributions to the plans of non-HCEs or refunding excess contributions back to HCEs.

401(k) Contribution Limits for HCEs

In theory, highly compensated employees’ 401(k) limits are the same as retirement contribution limits for other employees. For 2022, the limit is $20,500; it’s $22,500 for 2023. Employees age 50 and older can make an additional $6,500 in catch-up contributions for 2022, and $7,500 for 2023.

But, as noted above, these plans may be restricted for HCEs, so it’s wise to know the terms before you begin contributing.

Other Retirement Plan Considerations

For example, one thing to watch out for if you’re a highly compensated employee is the possibility of overfunding your 401(k). If your employer determines that you, as an HCE, have contributed more than the rules allow, the employer may need to refund some of that money back to you.

As mentioned earlier, refunded money would be treated as taxable income. Depending on the refunded amount, you could find yourself in a higher tax bracket and facing a larger tax bill. So it’s important to keep track of your contributions throughout the year so the money doesn’t have to be refunded to you.

Recommended: Should You Retire at 62?

401(k) vs IRAs for HCEs

A highly compensated employee might consider opening an IRA account, traditional or Roth IRA, to supplement their 401(k) savings. Either kind of IRA lets you contribute money up to the annual limit and make qualified withdrawals after age 59 ½ without penalty.

However, income-related rules could constrain highly compensated employees in terms of funding both a 401(k) and a traditional or Roth IRA.

•   An HCE’s contributions to a traditional IRA may not be fully tax-deductible if they or their spouse are covered by a workplace retirement plan. Phaseouts depend on income and filing status.

•   Highly compensated employees may be barred from contributing to a Roth IRA. Eligibility phases out as income rises. For the 2023 tax year, people become ineligible when their MAGI exceeds $153,000 (if single) or $228,000 (if married, filing jointly).

The Takeaway

A highly compensated employee is generally someone who owns more than 5% of the company that employs them, or who received compensation of more than $135,000 in 2022 ($150,000 in 2023).

Being an HCE can restrict how much you’re able to save in your company’s 401(k); under certain circumstances the IRS may require the employer to refund some of your contributions, with potential tax consequences for you. Even so, HCEs may still be able to save and invest through other retirement accounts.

SoFi offers traditional and Roth IRAs to help you grow your retirement savings. You can open an account online in minutes and build a diversified portfolio that suits your goals. It’s a hassle-free way to work toward a secure financial future.

Help grow your nest egg with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

Does HCE income include bonuses?

The IRS treats bonuses as compensation for determining which employees are highly compensated. Overtime, commissions, and salary deferrals to a 401(k) account are also counted as compensation.

What is the difference between a key employee and a highly compensated employee?

A highly compensated employee is someone who passes the IRS’s ownership test or compensation test. A key employee is someone who is an officer or meets ownership criteria. Highly compensated employees can also be key employees.

Can you be a key employee and not an HCE?

It is possible to be a key employee and not a highly compensated employee in certain situations. For example, you might own 1.5% of the business and make between $150,000 and $200,000 per year, while not ranking in the top 20% of employees by compensation.

Photo credit: iStock/nensuria

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

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