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Understanding Market Sentiment

Market sentiment concerns a complicated blend of thoughts, feelings, and actions, all of which have an effect on stock prices and markets. Flip on the cable news and the vibe might have you believe that political statements, economic data points, natural disasters, or global unrest have some sort of predictable or unilateral effect on investing behavior.

And they might! But in a slightly more roundabout way. These events may well change how investors feel about owning certain investments, which leads them to buy or sell those investments. And it is the forces of supply and demand that push asset prices higher or lower. Said another way, investor sentiment, also known as market sentiment, can cause price volatility.

Market Sentiment Defined

The collection of all investor feelings — and actions — amounts to what is called market sentiment. It is a powerful force in the markets and is the subject of much study (and cable news discourse).

Market sentiment is affected by millions of factors daily. That’s because there are at least as many participants in popular marketplaces, like the stock market.

While one investor may be selling stocks because of poor corporate earnings, others might simply sell because they woke up on the wrong side of the bed. It is overly simplified to assume only one cause of changes to asset prices.

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Collective Mood Swings

Market sentiment is the phrase used to describe the overall spirit of investors in a market. (The stock market was used in the example above, but market sentiment exists in all investment markets.) Think of market sentiment as a giant mood ring for a particular market at a particular time.

The collective psychology of the market has the power to move stock prices. (How much “we” demand something gives it its value.)

When prices go up, the overall tone of the market is said to be positive, or bullish. When prices move downward, it generally means that investor sentiment is negative, or bearish. Investor attitudes about investments are realized in the price of those investments.

And anyone who watches the market knows that investors can be quite emotional at times. It’s human nature. It’s best that investors accept this reality.

In fact, investors should find it freeing that humans aren’t always rational and that sometimes asset prices can have major swings along with global moods. It is not up to the investor to control the swings of the stock market, but instead to weather them calmly.

While company earnings are the engine that drives stock market returns over time, it is the act of buying and selling that, in the shorter term, can cause the stock market to wiggle.

The stock market is of particular interest when looking at market sentiment. It’s a popular, global market, for one. Second, volatility can be dramatic, unlike markets for bonds. Third, it is easy to witness changes happening in real time.

The stock marketplace is like few marketplaces in the world, where prices are updated constantly in direct relation to the buying and selling of items in question. (Imagine how wild that would be if it happened at a grocery store.)

Market sentiment is considered an important tool for market analysis. It is used to make decisions about the very market the sentiment applies to.

Market Sentiment as an Indicator

When analyzing markets in an effort to predict them, indicators are used. An indicator is a sign or trigger that may hold some sort of valuable information. Market sentiment is one such indicator.

Compare market sentiment as an indicator with fundamental analysis, which largely relates to business performance, projected business performance, and the prevailing conditions for business performance.

Imagine a new tax law that’s expected to have a strong impact on the profitability of businesses in a certain industry. This would be considered a fundamental indicator.

Sometimes sentiment indicators and fundamental indicators can be at odds with each other. Fundamental indicators appear to point in one direction, but investor emotion may say otherwise.

For example, a business could have poor business fundamentals, and investors may still feel exuberant about that company and pile into its stock, which pushes the price of that stock higher.

Examples of Market Sentiment as an Indicator

There are many ways in which market sentiment is used as a market indicator. Then there are even more interpretations for what that data could mean.

It’s important to realize that no market indicators should be taken alone as fact. Why? Market indicators are in the business of predicting the future, which, in the stock market and otherwise, is a difficult thing to do.

In forecasting the general trajectory of the stock market, investor sentiment is sometimes used as a contrary indicator.

As the old adage goes, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” In a broad sense, when market sentiment is poor, it could indicate that it’s a good time to invest. When market sentiment is hot, it could be a bad time to invest.

When do people feel the worst about investing? At market bottoms, when prices are low. When do investors feel best? After the market has done well, which could indicate that prices are too high.

This is a characteristic of market bubbles, where investor mania causes prices to soar beyond their fundamental value. (Exhibit A was the dot com bubble, which saw investors piling into internet stocks, some of which never had so much as a quarter of positive earnings.)

Another instance in which sentiment might be used to assess an investment is through a strategy called value investing. With this method, investors attempt to uncover underpriced stocks — stocks whose price is lower than the believed value.

This could mean looking for a stock that has a strong fundamental foundation but that has yet to catch fire with investors, or a stock that is being punished (perhaps unnecessarily) by investors. Finding the proverbial diamond in the rough requires both an understanding of a company’s fundamentals and the market sentiment surrounding it.

Day trading, which is the practice of making bets on the price movement of a security during the trading day, relies on what are called technical indicators. And because of the power of investor attitudes to move prices, factors of sentiment can play an important role in short-term market changes.

For example, technical traders may look at a security’s historical price movement, called moving averages, in an attempt to surmise what will happen going forward. It is common to look at both 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages in an attempt to predict what happens next.

Other examples of sentiment indices are the High-Low Index, the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the “fear” index, and the Bullish Percent Index.

The BPI measures the number of stocks with bullish and bearish patterns according to point and figure charts, ultimately producing a read on the sentiment of the overall market. An output of 50% is neutral, while reads above 80% are bullish and below 20%, bearish.

Some investors might argue that the above technical indicators have a serious limitation: They are using data from the past to project into the future and that the future is more or less unknown.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

Building an Investment Strategy

Market sentiment concerns the overall thoughts, feelings, and actions of market participants, and has an effect on what happens in the stock market. Negative sentiment can drive stock values down, while positive sentiment can lead to market euphoria and higher values.

It can be difficult to keep up with market sentiment, or to even read it accurately. But knowing what sentiment is, and how it can affect the markets, can be important when making investment decisions.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Black Swan Events and Investing, Explained

Black Swan Events and Investing, Explained

The term “black swan event” is widely used in finance today to describe an unanticipated event that severely impacts the financial markets.

The name stems from the discovery of avian black swans by Dutch explorer De Vlamingh while exploring Australia in the late 1600s. Historians credit de Vlamingh with separating the “expected” (i.e., a white swan, which were plentiful) with the “unexpected” (i.e., a black swan, which was a rare sighting).

Writer, professor and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the financial theory of “black swan” events in his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

“A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences,” Taleb wrote in his book. “Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.”

Taleb described the occasional — but highly problematic — arrival of black swans on the investment landscape, and outlined what, in his opinion, economists and investors could do to better understand those events and protect assets when they occur.

What Is a Black Swan Event?

According to Taleb, a black swan event is identifiable due to its extreme rarity and to its catastrophic potential damage to life and health, and to economies and markets. Taleb also notes in the book that once a black swan landed and devastated everything in its path, it was obvious in hindsight to recognize the event occurred.

It can be a difficult concept for investors. Who, after all, throughout the history of the stock market, would leave their finances unprotected from a black swan onslaught if they knew the event was imminent? By definition, predicting the arrival of a black swan is largely outside the realm of probability. All anyone needs to know, Taleb maintains, is that black swans occur and investors should not be surprised when they do happen.

Taleb outlines three indicators that signal the arrival of a black swan event. Each is meaningful in truly understanding a black swan scenario.

1.    Black swan events are outliers. No similar and prior event could predict the arrival of a particular black swan.

2.    Black swan events are severe, and they inflict widespread damage. That damage also has a severe impact on economies, cultures, institutions, and on families and communities.

3.    They’re usually seen in the rear view mirror. When black swans occur and eventually dissipate, recriminations take its place. While the specific black swan event wasn’t predicted, observers say the event could have and should have been prevented.

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Black Swan Event Examples

It’s become common for politicians and investors to call any negative event a “black swan” event, whether or not it meets Tasam’s definition. However, history has no shortage of true black swan events, which led to large, unpredictable market corrections.

The following events are considered some of the most infamous among economists and historians.

The Soviet Union’s Historic Collapse

Economists consider the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 a major black swan. Only 10 years earlier, the Russian empire was considered a major global economic and military threat. A decade later, the Soviet Union was no more, significantly shifting the global geopolitical and economic stage.

The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

In hindsight, the United States might have seen the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. coming. International terrorism had long been a big risk management issue for the U.S. government, but the severity of the attack left the world stunned – and plunged the U.S. into a serious economic decline. Stocks lost $1.4 trillion in value the week after the attacks.

The Dot-com Bubble

In the late 1990s, investors were indulging in irrational exuberance and nowhere was that more clear than with the nation’s stock market — particularly with white-hot technology stocks. With an army of Internet stocks in the IPO pipeline, overvalued tech stocks plummeted, taking the entire stock market down in the process. The damage was staggering, with the Nasdaq Index losing 78% of its value between March 2000 and October 2002.

The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

After a series of high-risk derivative bets by major banks, mounting losses in the U.S. mortgage market, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. economy teetered on the edge of disaster — a scenario it would take almost a decade to correct. The unemployment rate doubled to more than 10%, domestic product declined 4.3%, and at its worst point, the S&P 500 plummeted 57%, creating a bear market.

It’s worth noting that although some people have referred to the Covid-19 pandemic as a black swan event, Taleb does not consider it to be one since he feels there was enough historical precedence to foresee it.

Why Do Black Swan Events Happen?

Since black swan events are virtually impossible to predict, there is no concrete answer as to why they happen. The world is complicated, with many different factors — political, financial, environmental, and social, among others — impacting one another and setting off chains of events that could potentially become black swan events in scope and magnitude.

💡 Quick Tip: Distributing your money across a range of assets — also known as diversification — can be beneficial for long-term investors. When you put your eggs in many baskets, it may be beneficial if a single asset class goes down.

Can You Predict a Black Swan Event?

By its very definition, it’s nearly impossible to predict a specific black swan event. This makes it hard to prepare for black swans as you would for other investment risks.

Instead, investors may want to focus on making sure they’re prepared, generally, for the unknown. Here’s how to help do that:

•   Be pragmatic. Investors are better off knowing unanticipated negative events do exist and could arrive on their doorstep at any time. Keep in mind the possibility of black swans and consider building an expectation of stock volatility into your overall portfolio-management strategy.

•   Don’t get bogged down by long-term forecasts. Don’t rely solely on expert predictions or far-off investment outlooks, since unexpected events, including black swans can happen at any time and it’s normal for markets to fluctuate. Instead, consider building a more conservative element into your investment portfolio, one that relies more on protecting your assets, so you’re not tempted to make rash moves during a black swan event. Have a candid conversation with your financial advisor, or educate yourself if you don’t have a financial advisor, about how proper diversification may help build a portfolio that balances the need for performance with the need for protection.

•   Don’t panic when a black swan event happens. As tempting as it might be to try to get out of a market during a black swan event and get back in when it fades away, resist the urge to engage in market timing.

•   Look for opportunities. Putting money into the markets during a black swan event can be difficult and potentially risky, but investing in a down market may yield positive returns over the long-term.

Rather than trying to time the market, consider using a dollar-cost averaging strategy, in which you make regular purchases — even during a black swan event.

The Takeaway

For long-term investors, the prudent stance on black swan events is to acknowledge their existence, build some protection into your investment portfolio to help mitigate potential damage, and be ready to take full advantage of a market upturn once the black swan flies away.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


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FAQ

What is a black swan event in recent years?

One of the most recent black swan events was the 2008-2009 financial crisis known as the Great Recession. That’s when a series of high-risk derivative bets by major banks, mounting losses in the U.S. mortgage market, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the biggest U.S. bankruptcy ever, pushed the U.S. economy to the edge of disaster.

What was the biggest black swan event?

The Great Depression of 1929 was probably the most infamous black swan event. It started with the U.S. stock market crash in October 1929 and led to a worldwide drop in stock prices. The U.S. economy shrank by 36% between 1929 and 1933, many banks failed, and the U.S. unemployment rate skyrocketed to more than 25%. It was the longest and most severe economic recession in modern history.

What are the attributes that identify a black swan event?

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who popularized the black swan theory, the attributes that identify a black swan event are: 1) black swan events are rare and no similar or prior event could predict them, 2) black swan events are severe and inflict widespread damage, and 3) after the fact, observers say the black swan event could have and should have been prevented.


Photo credit: iStock/by Martin Nancekievill

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
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Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement. IPOs offered through SoFi Securities are not a recommendation and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.

New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For SoFi’s allocation procedures please refer to IPO Allocation Procedures.

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What is the Greenshoe Option? Definition & How it Works

What is the Greenshoe Option? Definition & How it Works

The greenshoe option allows underwriters involved with IPOs to sell more shares than initially agreed upon: usually up to 15% more. That can occur if there is enough investor demand to purchase the shares.

Because IPO share prices can be volatile, the greenshoe option is an important tool that can help underwriters stabilize the price of a newly listed stock to protect both the company and investors.

Understanding the Greenshoe Option

Also called the over-allotment option, the greenshoe provision is part of an underwriting agreement between an underwriter and a company issuing stock as part of an IPO, or initial public offering. The greenshoe option is the only type of price stabilization allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC allows this because it increases competitiveness and efficiency of IPO fundraising. It gives underwriters the ability to stabilize security prices by increasing the available supply. It is the responsibility of an underwriter to help sell shares, build a market for a new stock, and use the tools at their disposal to launch a successful initial public offering.

The greenshoe option got its name when the Green Shoe Manufacturing Company was issued the first over-allotment options in 1919.

💡 Quick Tip: Access to IPO shares before they trade on public exchanges has usually been available only to large institutional investors. That’s changing now, and some brokerages offer pre-listing IPO investing to qualified investors.

How Does a Greenshoe Option Work?

During the IPO process, stock issuers set limits on how many shares they will sell to investors during an IPO. With a greenshoe option, the IPO underwriter can sell up to 15% more shares than the set amount.

IPO underwriters want to sell as many shares as they can because they earn on commission as a percentage of IPO sales.

All of the details about an IPO sale and underwriter abilities appear in the prospectus filed by the issuing company before the sale. Not every company allows their investment banker to use the greenshoe option. For instance, if they only want to raise a specific amount of capital, they wouldn’t want to sell any more shares than necessary to raise that money.

There are two ways an underwriter can over allot sales:

At the IPO Price

If the IPO they are underwriting is doing well, investors are buying IPO shares and the price is going up, the underwriter can use the greenshoe option to purchase up to 15% more stock from the issuing company at the IPO price and sell that stock to investors at the higher market price for a profit.

A Break Issue

Conversely, if an IPO isn’t doing well, the underwriter can take a short position on up to 15% of the issued stock and buy back shares from the market to stabilize the price and cover their position.

The underwriter then returns those additional shares to the issuing company. This is known as a “break issue.” When an IPO isn’t performing well, this can reduce consumer confidence in the stock, and result in investors either selling their shares or refraining from buying them.

The greenshoe option helps the underwriter stabilize the stock price and reduce stock volatility.

Types of Greenshoe Options

There are three types of greenshoe options an underwriter might choose to use depending on what happens after an IPO launches. These options are:

Full Greenshoe

If the underwriter can’t buy back any shares before the stock price increases, this is known as a full greenshoe. In this case, the underwriter buys shares at the current offering price.

Partial Greenshoe

In a partial greenshoe scenario, the underwriter only buys back some of the stock inventory they started with in order to increase the share price.

Reverse Greenshoe

The third option for underwriters is to purchase shares from market investors and sell them back to the stock issuer if the share price has dipped below the original offering price. This is similar to a put option in stock trading.

Recommended: How Are IPO Prices Set?

Greenshoe Option Examples

Here’s an example of how a greenshoe option might work in real life.

Once the IPO company owners, underwriter, and clients determine the offering or initial price of the newly issued shares, they’re ready to be traded on the public market. Ideally, the share price will rise above offering, but if the shares fall below the offering price the underwriter can exercise the greenshoe option (assuming the company had approved it in the prospectus).

To control the price, the underwrite can short up to 15% more shares than were part of the original IPO offering.

Let’s say a company’s initial public offering is going to be 10 million shares. The underwriters can sell up to 15% over that amount, or 1.5 million more shares, thus giving underwriters the ability to increase or decrease the supply as needed — adding to liquidity and helping to control price stability.

💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.

What the Greenshoe Option Means for IPO Investors

The greenshoe option is an important tool for underwriters that can help with the success of an IPO and bring additional funds to the issuing company. It reduces risk for the issuing company as well as investors. It can maintain IPO investor confidence in a newly issued stock which helps to build a long-term group of shareholders.

Although buying IPO stocks can be very profitable, stock prices don’t always increase and sometimes they can be volatile. It’s important for investors to research a company, look at the IPO prospectus, understand what the stock lock-up period and greenshoe options are before deciding to buy.

The Takeaway

Buying shares in IPOs can be a great way to invest in companies right when they go public. Although IPO investing comes with some risks, and IPO stock can be volatile, investment banks and companies going public use tools such as the greenshoe option to minimize volatility.

Whether you’re curious about exploring IPOs, or interested in traditional stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can get started by opening an account on the SoFi Invest® brokerage platform. On SoFi Invest, eligible SoFi members have the opportunity to trade IPO shares, and there are no account minimums for those with an Active Investing account. As with any investment, it's wise to consider your overall portfolio goals in order to assess whether IPO investing is right for you, given the risks of volatility and loss.


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement. IPOs offered through SoFi Securities are not a recommendation and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.

New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For SoFi’s allocation procedures please refer to IPO Allocation Procedures.



Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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What is a Glide Path?

Guide to Glide Paths for 401(k)

Asset managers use a “glide path” to determine how the asset allocation of a target-date retirement fund will change based on the number of years until the fund’s target date. Each target-date fund has its own glide path, though they typically begin with a more aggressive allocation that gets more conservative over time.

The idea behind most target date fund glide paths is that investors with a longer-term time horizon should have a higher percentage of their portfolio in riskier assets, like stocks, since they have time to recover from short-term volatility. As their retirement date approaches (or once they’ve started retirement), investors likely will benefit from a more conservative portfolio that protects the assets they’ve already accumulated.

What Is a Glide Path?

The glide path is the formula that asset managers choose when they put together a target-date mutual fund that determines how and when that portfolio will adjust its asset allocation over time.

Target-date funds (and their glide paths) are common investment choices in 401(k) accounts, as well as in other types or retirement accounts, such as a Roth or traditional IRA set up through a brokerage account.

A key component to saving for retirement is having a suitable mix of investments that allow for portfolio diversification. Early on, most glide paths focus on stocks that typically offer the greatest potential to grow in value over time and then shift to bonds and other fixed-income investments according to the investor’s risk tolerance to manage volatile price swings as they grow older.

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Understanding Glide Path

The glide paths within target-date funds aim to create a set-it-and-forget-it investing option for retirement savers, who may get diversification based on their time horizon within a single fund. Investors who are younger and have 20 to 30 years until retirement typically need to maximize their portfolio growth, which requires a much higher allocation toward stocks.

By comparison, someone who is nearing retirement or has already retired, may need to scale back on their portfolio risk. Glide path investing automatically reallocates the latter investor’s portfolio toward bonds which are typically lower risk investments with lower returns compared to stocks but provide portfolio stability. That also generally means that younger investors in a target-date fund will typically have higher 401(k) returns than older investors.

Types of Glide Paths for Retirement Investing

There are different glide path strategies depending on an investor’s risk tolerance and when they plan to retire. Typically, target-date funds have a declining glide path, although the rate at which it declines (and the investments within its allocation vary depending on the fund).

Declining Glide Path

A declining glide path reduces the amount of risk that a target-date fund takes over time. In general, it makes sense for retirees or those approaching retirement to reduce their investment risk with a more conservative portfolio as they age. A decreasing glide path is the more common approach used. It involves a higher equity risk allocation that steadily declines as retirement approaches.

Static Glide Path

Some target-date funds may have a static glide path during some years. During this time, the investment mix would remain at a set allocation, such as 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Managers maintaining portfolios that have a static glide path rebalance them regularly to maintain this allocation.

Rising Glide Path

Some specialists believe that the glide path should begin to rise again once an investor reaches retirement age, taking on more risk over time. This argument takes the position that increasing risk in a retiree’s portfolio could reduce volatility in the early stages of retirement when the portfolio is at risk of losing the most wealth in the event of a stock market decline.

An increasing glide path may be an option to consider for retirees with pension benefits or higher withdrawal rates or those who are working in retirement. If a retiree understands the risk involved and is comfortable taking it on, this strategy might make sense, however, generally speaking, the rising glide path is the least utilized method for retirement planning.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

Choosing the Right Glide Path

If you’re saving for retirement in a 401(k), there may only be one target-date option available to you based on your target-retirement age. However, if you have choices within your 401(k) or you’re choosing a target-date fund within an individual retirement account or another investment vehicle, you’ll want to look for a target-date fund with a strategy that aligns with your investment view.

One rule of thumb uses the “rule of 100,” which subtracts the investor’s age from 100 to determine the percentage of your portfolio that should be in stocks. However, some managers use glide paths that decline more or less quickly than that.

Some target-date funds also incorporate alternative assets, such as private equity or real estate, in addition to traditional stocks and bonds.

”To” or “Through” Retirement

When glide paths reach retirement date, they can take one of two approaches, either a “To” or “Through” approach. A “To” retirement glide path is a target-date fund strategy that reaches its most conservative asset allocation when retirement starts. This strategy generally holds lower exposure to risk assets during the working phase and at the target retirement date. This means, at retirement, it reduces exposure to riskier assets, like equities, and moves into more conservative assets, like bonds.

“Through” glide paths tend to maintain a higher allocation toward riskier assets as investors accumulate savings at their target retirement date and years into retirement. This means exposure to equities in retirement tends to be higher, at least in the first few years of retirement.

In choosing which path is best suited to you, you must determine your risk tolerance and how aggressive or conservative you are able to be. This includes deciding how much exposure to equities you can afford to have. Decreasing exposure to stocks means investors may not have to worry as much about a portfolio that fluctuates in value, whereas an increased exposure to equities may mean a portfolio with more volatility that could have potential for greater gains over time.

The Takeaway

Glide paths are formulas that investment managers create to determine the level of risk in a target-date fund. The idea is that a portfolio automatically adjusts itself based on risk tolerance that changes as the investor ages, allowing for a more hands-off approach.

Glide paths are common investment choices in retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs. As you’re determining your retirement savings strategy, carefully consider whether they may make sense for you.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

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FAQ

What does glide path approach mean?

A glide path refers to a formula that asset managers use to determine the allocation mix of assets in a target-date retirement portfolio and how it changes over time. A target-date retirement portfolio tends to become more conservative as the investor ages, but there are multiple glide paths to take account to a retiree’s risk tolerance.

What is a retirement glide path?

A retirement glide path is the approach within a target-date fund that includes a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Retirement glide paths typically start out with a more aggressive mix of investments and get more conservative over time.

Which type of mutual fund follows a glide path?

Target-date retirement funds are the most common type of mutual fund that follows a glide path. However managers may also use glide paths for other time-focused, long-term investments, such as 529 retirement accounts.

What is an example of a glide path?

Here is one example of a glide path: Say an investor plans to retire in 2050 and buys a target-date 2050 fund. If the investor is using a declining glide path strategy, it will automatically reduce the amount of risk that the target-date fund takes over time. So, for instance, the target-date fund might have 70% stocks and 30% bonds at the beginning, but over time, the amount allocated to stocks will steadily decline, and the amount allocated to bonds will steadily increase —making the portfolio more conservative as the investor approaches retirement.

What are the benefits of a glide path?

Benefits of a glide path may include making investing easier because the process of changing asset allocation is automatic, and allowing for an essentially hands-off approach since glide paths are professionally managed. However, there are drawbacks to consider as well, including possibly higher management fees for some target-date funds.


Photo credit: iStock/akinbostanci

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.


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Alternative investments, including funds that invest in alternative investments, are risky and may not be suitable for all investors. Alternative investments often employ leveraging and other speculative practices that increase an investor's risk of loss to include complete loss of investment, often charge high fees, and can be highly illiquid and volatile. Alternative investments may lack diversification, involve complex tax structures and have delays in reporting important tax information. Registered and unregistered alternative investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds.
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What Is 401(k) Plan Benchmarking?

Benchmarking a 401(k) retirement plan refers to how a company assesses their plan’s design, fees, and services to ensure they meet industry and ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act) standards.

Benchmarking 401(k) plans is important for a few reasons. First, the company offering the plan needs to be confident that they are acting in the best interests of employees who participate in the 401(k) plan. And because acting in the best interests of plan participants is part of an employer’s fiduciary duty, benchmarking can help reduce an employer’s liability if fiduciary standards aren’t met.

If a company’s plan isn’t meeting industry benchmarks, it may be wise for an employer to change plan providers. Learn more about how benchmarking works and why it’s important.

How 401(k) Benchmarking Works

While a 401(k) is a convenient and popular way for participants to invest for retirement, the company offering the plan has many responsibilities to make sure that its plan is competitive. That is where 401(k) benchmarking comes into play.

An annual checkup is typically performed whereby a company assesses its plan’s design, evaluates fees, and reviews all the services offered by the plan provider. The 401(k) plan benchmarking process helps ensure that the retirement plan reduces the risk of violating ERISA rules. For the firm, a yearly review can help reduce an employer’s liability and it can save the firm money.

ERISA, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, requires that the plan sponsor verifies that the 401(k) plan has reasonable fees. ERISA is a federal law that mandates minimum standards that retirement plans must meet. It helps protect plan participants and beneficiaries.

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1Terms and conditions apply. Roll over a minimum of $20K to receive the 1% match offer. Matches on contributions are made up to the annual limits.

The Importance of 401(k) Plan Benchmarking

It is important that an employer keep its 401(k) plan up to today’s standards. Making sure the plan is optimal compared to industry averages is a key piece of retirement benchmarking. It’s also imperative that your employees have a quality plan to help them save and invest for retirement. Most retirement plan sponsors conduct some form of benchmarking planning, and making that a regular event — such as annually — is important so that the employer continuously complies with ERISA guidelines.

Employers have a fiduciary responsibility to ensure that fees are reasonable for services provided. ERISA also states that the primary responsibility of the plan fiduciaries is to act in the best interest of their plan participants. 401(k) benchmarking facilitates the due diligence process and reduces a firm’s liability.

How to Benchmark Your 401(k) Plan: 3 Steps

So, as an employer, how exactly do you go about benchmarking 401(k) plans? There are three key steps that plan sponsors should take so that their liability is reduced, and the employees get the best service for their money. Moreover, 401(k) benchmarking can help improve your service provider to make your plan better.

1. Assess Your 401(k) Plan Design

It’s hard to know if your retirement plan’s design is optimal. Two gauges used to figure its quality are plan asset growth and the average account balance. If workers are continuously contributing and investments are performing adequately compared to market indexes, then those are signs that the plan is well designed.

Benchmarking can also help assess if a Roth 401(k) feature should be added. Another plan feature might be to adjust the company matching contribution or vesting schedule. Optimizing these pieces of the plan can help retain workers while meeting ERISA requirements.

2. Evaluate Your 401(k) Plan Fees

A 401(k) plan has investment, administrative, and transaction fees. Benchmarking 401k plan fees helps ensure total costs are reasonable. It can be useful to take an “all-in” approach when assessing plan fees. That method can better compare service providers since different providers might have different terms for various fees. But simply selecting the cheapest plan does not account for the quality and depth of services a plan renders. Additional benchmarking is needed to gauge a retirement plan’s quality. Here are the three primary types of 401(k) plan fees to assess:

•   Administrative: Fees related to customer service, recordkeeping, and any legal services.

•   Investment: Amounts charged to plan participants and expenses related to investment funds.

•   Transaction: Fees involved with money movements such as loans, withdrawals, and advisory costs.

3. Evaluate Your 401(k) Provider’s Services

There are many variables to analyze when it comes to 401(k) benchmarking of services. A lot can depend on what your employees prefer. Reviewing the sponsor’s service model, technology, and execution of duties is important.

Also, think about it from the point of view of the plan participants: Is there good customer service available? What about the quality of investment guidance? Evaluating services is a key piece of 401(k) plan benchmarking. A solid service offering helps employees make the most out of investing in a 401(k) account.

💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.

Investing for Retirement With SoFi

Investing for retirement is more important than ever as individuals live longer and pension plans are becoming a relic of the past. With today’s technology, and clear rules outlined by ERISA, it can be easier for workers to take advantage of high-quality 401(k) plans to help them save and invest for the long term.

For the company offering the plan, establishing a retirement benchmarking process is crucial to keeping pace with the best 401(k) plans. Reviewing a plan’s design, costs, and services helps workers have confidence that their employer is working in their best interests. Benchmarking can also protect employers.

If your company already has a 401(k) plan that you contribute to as an employee, you might also consider other individual retirement accounts to open. You can learn more about various options available, such as IRAs. There are different types of IRAs, including traditional and Roth IRAs. You may want to explore them to see which might be best to help you reach your retirement savings goals.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


Help grow your nest egg with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

How often should a 401(k) be benchmarked?

It’s considered a best practice to benchmark a 401(k) annually to make sure the plan complies with ERISA guidelines. Making sure that the plan’s fees are reasonable and acting in the best interests of plan participants is part of an employer’s fiduciary duty. Benchmarking facilitates the due diligence process and reduces an employer’s liability if fiduciary standards aren’t met.

How do I benchmark my 401(k) fees?

To benchmark your 401(k) fees, take an “all-in” approach by calculating the service provider fees plus the investment expenses for the plan. This helps you compare your plan’s fees to fees charged by other service providers. In addition, assess the plan’s quality by looking at administrative fees (fees related to customer service and recordkeeping, for instance), investment fees (expenses related to investment funds and amounts charged to participants in the plan), and transaction fees (fees related to moving money, such as withdrawals or loans).


Photo credit: iStock/MicroStockHub

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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