What Are Variation Margins? How Do They Work?

What Are Variation Margins? How Do They Work?

Margin variation is money needed to maintain margin level in a margin account. Variation margins serve as collateral or security against potential losses. Another way to think of it is as unrealized profit or loss in open derivative positions.

When a margin account balance drops below the brokerage’s specified limits, the brokerage can extend a margin call to request a futures variation margin payment. If a trader does not have the funds to meet the margin call, the brokerage may sell securities in their account to make up the difference.

What Is Variation Margin?

Variation margin is a collateral payment made by one party to a counterparty to cover any change in value of underlying assets used in futures contracts.

Traders may make these payments on a day-to-day or intraday basis as directed by the clearing house. Variation margin serves as a risk management tool for the clearing house. By collecting these payments, the clearing house can sustain its targeted risk level while allowing traders to have margin debt in their accounts.


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Margin Trading Basics

To understand variation margins, it’s helpful to review some of the basics of margin trading. When an investor trades on margin, it essentially means they’re trading using borrowed money. So, for example, an investor who wants to purchase futures contracts may invest 50% of their own money and borrow the remaining 50% from their brokerage.

In exchange, the brokerage requires investors to maintain an initial margin, maintenance margin, and variation margin amount in liquid funds. Each one represents a different balance threshold. Margin accounts require investors to meet the minimum requirements.

Recommended: How Does a Margin Account Work?

How Do Variation Margins Work?

Variation margin works by filling gaps in margin account balance levels. When trading futures, variation margin allows clearing houses to continue facilitating trades while managing risk. Understanding stock volatility can help with understanding how variation margin works.

Equity prices fluctuate as volatility ebbs and flows in the markets. Changing prices can directly affect investor profits or losses, and trading equity derivatives on margin can amplify those profits and losses.

Variation margins work by accounting for changes in the prices of financial securities being traded. Traders make these payments, typically in cash, from the party who lost value to the party that’s gained value in a margin transaction. The amount due depends on the type of security being traded, expected price movements for that security and overall market conditions. That’s why it’s called variation margin, as the amount may vary from transaction to transaction.

Variation Margin Example

Here’s a simple example of how variation margin works. Assume an investor purchases 100 shares of stock for $30 each. The initial margin for the purchase is set at 50%. This would mean the broker would need to have $1,500 in their account at all times in order to make trades (50% of 100 x $30). Meanwhile, the maintenance margin is $1,000.

If the stock’s share price were to fall to $20, then the brokerages would deduct $1,000 in losses from the initial margin balance. Now the initial margin balance is $500. The new initial margin amount required becomes $1,000 (50% of 100 shares x $20 per share). So the investor would have to add $500 to their account as a variation margin payment to meet the new initial margin requirement.

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Variation Margin Calculation

Calculating variation margin depends on the type of security being traded and its price movements. So it’s something that must be done on a transaction-by-transaction basis, since every security is different.

But there is a simple variation margin formula that can be used for calculations:

VM = Initial margin – Margin balance

So to calculate variation margin, an investor needs to know three things:

•   Initial margin requirement

•   Maintenance margin requirement

•   Current price of the underlying security

Finding variation margin means doing some math to determine how much the new initial margin requirement works out to when the price of the underlying security drops. But as the previous variation example illustrates, it’s not overly complicated.

Initial Margin vs Variation Margin

Initial margin and variation margin are often mentioned together when discussing margin trading but they’re not the same thing. Initial margin refers to the amount of money an investor can borrow inside a margin account.

Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board allows investors to borrow up to 50% of the purchase price of securities being traded on margin. Though some brokerages may require a larger deposit to satisfy initial margin requirements.

Initial Margin

Variation Margin

Money that must be paid upfront to purchase securities on margin Money that’s paid when a security being traded on margin loses value
Paid in cash prior to purchasing securities Paid daily or intraday, typically in cash
Federal regulations set at initial margin at a minimum of 50% of the security’s price, though brokerages may set the amount higher Amounts due for variation margin can depend on the type of security, its price movements, and market conditions.

Variation Margin and Maintenance Margin

Maintenance margin is another term often used in discussions of margin trading and it’s often used synonymously with variation margin. The maintenance margin represents the minimum amount of equity a trader must maintain in a margin account at all times. Equity is the difference between the value of securities held in the account and any amounts owed to the brokerage.

Under Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) rules, maintenance margin must be at least 25% of the total market value of margin securities being held. Brokerage firms set the bar higher, however, requiring investors to meet a 30% or 40% margin maintenance requirement.

The maintenance margin is not the same thing as minimum margin. Minimum margin is the minimum amount required to open a margin account. FINRA requires this amount to be $2,000 or 100% of the purchase price of margin securities, whichever is less.

The Takeaway

To recap, variation margin is a collateral payment made by one party to a counterparty to cover any change in value of underlying assets when discussing futures contracts. It’s a fairly high-level concept, and many investors may not need to worry much about it, or even encounter it if they stick to a relatively simple investment strategy.

With that said, margin trading can potentially yield significant returns for investors, though it has more risks than traditional trading. Understanding variation margin and margin requirements can help traders manage that risk.

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FAQ

Is variation margin a derivative?

Variation margin is not a derivative, but is a factor in derivatives markets. It’s one of the chief types of collateral that is required to protect investors or other parties in the market.

Is variation margin the same as mark to market?

Variation margin is a type of collateral, and is determined, in part, but the size of a party’s exposure in a trade – that, too, depends on mark-to-market value of the derivatives at play. As such, the two are not the same.

Can variation margin be negative?

It is possible for variation margin to be negative, and in that case, it would mean that there’s been a loss.

Is variation margin collateral?

Variation margin is a type of collateral, and is payment made by one party to a counterparty to cover any change in value of underlying assets used in futures contracts.

Why is variation margin important?

For investors or traders, variation margin is important as it informs them of the amount of funds that they need to solidify margin levels in order to trade.

Photo credit: iStock/Prostock-Studio


About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.



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Brokered Certificates of Deposit (CDs): What Are They and How They Work

Brokered Certificates of Deposit (CDs): What They Are and How They Work

A brokered CD is a CD that’s sold by a brokerage firm or a deposit broker (an individual that can place financial deposits in an institution on behalf of a third party), rather than a bank. Brokered CDs may offer higher rates than traditional CDs sold at a bank, but they may also entail greater risk for investors.

Before investing in brokered CDs, it’s important to understand how they work, how they differ from traditional CDs, and the potential pros and cons of these accounts.

What Is a Brokered Certificate of Deposit?

A certificate of deposit is a type of savings account that allows you to deposit money and earn interest over a set time period called the term, which is usually a few months to five years. When a traditional CD reaches maturity, you can withdraw the principal plus interest, or roll it over to another CD. Traditional CDs are generally FDIC insured.

A brokered CD is a CD that’s offered by a broker or brokerage firm that’s authorized to act as a deposit broker on behalf of an issuing bank. These CDs often function more like bonds and they may be sold on the secondary market. Brokered CDs tend to be FDIC insured — as long as the CD was bought by the broker from a federally-insured bank.

What is a brokered CD in simpler terms? It’s a CD you buy from a brokerage. A deposit broker buys the CDs from a bank, then resells them to investors. Brokered CDs are held in a brokerage account. They can earn interest, but instead of only being static investments that you hold until maturity like traditional CDs, you can trade brokered CDs like bonds or other securities on the secondary market.

Compared to a standard CD, a brokered CD may require a higher minimum deposit than for a traditional bank CD. The trade-off, however, is that brokered CDs may potentially offer higher returns than you could get with a regular CD.

How Brokered CDs Work

To buy a brokered certificate of deposit, you first need to find a deposit broker that offers them. Banks can issue CDs specifically for the customers of brokerage firms. These CDs may be issued in large denominations, say several million dollars. The brokerage would then break that large CD into smaller CDs to offer to its customers.

You could buy a brokered CD, depositing the minimum amount required or more. The brokered CD then earns interest, with the APY typically corresponding to the length of the maturity term. While longer terms typically earn higher interest rates, currently, short term CDs are offering higher rates because banks believe the Federal Reserve may cut the interest rate in the future. For example, you might be offered a 12-month brokered CD earning 5.40% or a 24-month brokered CD that yields 5.25%.

Ordinarily, you’d have to keep the money in your CD until the CD matures (if you withdraw the funds before the CD matures, you could face an early-withdrawal penalty). You could then roll the original deposit and interest into a new CD or withdraw the total amount.

With brokered CDs, on the other hand, you have the option to sell the CD on the secondary market before it matures.

Examples of Brokered CDs

Many online brokerages offer brokered CDs, including Fidelity, Vanguard and Charles Schwab, to name just a few. Here are the rates on some brokered CDs, as of late May 2024.

Vanguard: Up to 5.50% APY for a 10- to 12-month brokered CD

Fidelity: Up to 5.40% APY for a 6-month brokered CD

Charles Schawb: Up to 5.51% APY for a 3-month brokered CD

Advantages of a Brokered CD

Brokered CDs can offer several advantages, though they may not be the best option for every investor. Here are some of the potential benefits of a brokered certificate of deposit.

More Flexibility Than Traditional CDs

Brokered CDs can offer more flexibility than investing in bank CDs in the sense that they can have a variety of maturity terms, so you can choose ones that fit your needs and goals. You might select a 90-day brokered CD, for example, if you’re looking for a short-term investment or choose one with a 2-year maturity if you’d prefer something with a longer term. It’s also possible to purchase multiple brokered CDs issued by different banks and hold them all in the same brokerage account for added convenience.

Easier to Get Money Out Early on the Secondary Market

With a standard CD, you’re more or less locked in to the account until it matures. (While you could take money out early if your bank allows it, it’s likely you’ll pay an early withdrawal penalty to do so. This penalty can reduce the amount of interest earned.) Brokered CDs don’t have those restrictions; if you need to get money fast then you could sell them on the secondary market, effectively cashing out your principal and interest gains — without a penalty.

Higher Yields Than Standard Bank CDs

Deposit brokers that offer brokered certificates of deposit can use the promise of higher interest rates to attract investors. Rather than earning 1.00% on a CD as you might at a bank, you could potentially earn 5.00% or more with a brokered CD. If you’re seeking higher returns in your portfolio with investments that offer greater liquidity, brokered CDs could hit the mark.

You may also get a higher yield from a brokered CD versus a bond, with greater liquidity to boot.

Potential to Make Profit Once It Reaches Maturity Even If Interest Rates Fall

Interest rates for brokered CDs are locked until maturity. So even if rates fall during the maturity period, you could still profit when you sell the brokered CD later. As a general rule, shorter-term brokered CDs are less susceptible to interest rate risk than ones with longer terms.

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Disadvantages of a Brokered CD

Brokered CDs can have some drawbacks that investors need to know about.

Long-Term Brokered CDs Expose Investors to Interest Rate Risk

As mentioned, the longer the CD term the more exposure you have to interest rate risk. Brokered CD prices are subject to fluctuations on the secondary market. If interest rates rise, this usually has an inverse effect on the market price of existing brokered CDs. That means if you were to sell those CDs before maturity, you run the risk of getting less than what you paid for them.

Different Risk When Interest Rates Fall

You can also run into a different type of risk when rates are dropping if your brokered CDs are callable. A callable CD means the issuing bank can terminate or call the CD prior to maturity, similar to a callable bond. Callable brokered CDs can be problematic when rates drop because you’re forced to cash in your investment. In doing so, you’ll miss out on the full amount of interest you could have earned if you’d been able to hold the CD to maturity.

Temptation to Sell May Be Costly

The early withdrawal penalty associated with bank CDs actually serves an important purpose: It keeps you from taking money out of your CD early. Since brokered CDs don’t have this penalty, there’s nothing stopping you from selling your CDs on the secondary market whenever you like. That means it’s easier to cash out your investment, rather than sticking with it, which could cost you interest earnings.

Comparing Brokered CDs to Other CDs

When deciding whether or not to invest in a brokered CD, it can be helpful to compare them to other types of CDs to see how they stack up.

Brokered CD vs Bank CD

Bank CDs are typically purchased from a bank. They are purchased for a set period of time and must be held until maturity. If you want to cash out the CD early you will generally have to pay an early withdrawal penalty.

Brokered CDs are purchased from a deposit broker or brokerage house. They don’t have early withdrawal penalties so you can sell them on the secondary market if you choose to do so.

Brokered CD vs Bull CD

A bull CD is a CD that offers investors an interest rate that’s tied to an index or benchmark like the S&P 500 Index. Investors are also guaranteed a minimum rate of return. Bull CDs can also be referred to as equity-linked or market-linked CDs.

Brokered CDs earn interest but the rate is not tied to a market index. Instead, the rate is fixed for the maturity term.

Brokered CD vs Bear CD

Bear CDs are the opposite of bull CDs. With this type of CD, interest is earned based on declines in the underlying market index. So in other words, you make money when the market falls.

Again, brokered CDs don’t work this way. There is no index correlation; returns are based on the interest rate assigned at the time the CD is issued.

Brokered CD vs Yankee CD

Yankee CDs are CDs issued by foreign banks in the U.S. market. For example, a Canadian bank that has a branch in New York might offer Yankee CDs to its U.S. customers. Yankee CDs are typically suited to higher net worth investors, as they may require $100,000 or more to open. Unlike brokered CDs, which have fixed rates, a Yankee CD may offer a fixed or floating rate.

This chart offers an at-a-glance comparison of the CDs mentioned above and how they work.

Brokered CD

Bank CD

Bull CD

Bear CD

Yankee CD

Issued by a bank, sold by a brokerageIssued and sold by a bankIssued by a bank, sold by a brokerageIssued by a bank, sold by a brokerageIssued by a foreign bank and sold in the U.S.
Earns a fixed interest rateEarns a fixed interest rateEarns an interest rate that correlates to an underlying indexReturns are tied to an underlying market indexMay offer a fixed or floating rate
Maturity terms are fixed; however, brokered CDs can be sold on the secondary market before maturityMaturity terms are fixedInvestors are guaranteed a minimum rate of returnInterest is earned based on declines in the marketMaturity rates can be fixed or variable
May be FDIC-insured when issued by a qualifying bankFDIC-insuredNot FDIC-insuredNot FDIC-insuredNot FDIC-insured

How to Buy a Brokered CD

If you’d like to buy a brokered CD, you’ll first need to find a brokerage that offers them. You can then open a brokerage account, which typically requires filling out some paperwork and verifying your ID. Most brokerages let you do this online to save time.

Once your account is open, you should be able to review the selection of brokered CDs available to decide which ones you want to purchase. When comparing brokered CDs, pay attention to:

•   Minimum deposit requirements

•   Maturity terms

•   Interest rates

•   Fees

Also, consider whether the CD is callable or non-callable as that could potentially affect your returns.

Are Brokered CDs FDIC Insured?

Brokered CDs are generally FDIC-insured if the bank issuing them is an FDIC member. The standard FDIC coverage limits apply. Currently, the FDIC insures banking customers up to $250,000 per depositor, per account ownership type, per financial institution. You have to be listed as the CD’s owner in order for the FDIC protection to kick in.

There is an exception if brokered CDs function more like an investment account. In that case, you would have no FDIC protection. The FDIC does not consider money held in securities to be deposits and encourages consumers to understand where they’re putting their money so they know if they’re covered or not.

However, it’s possible that you may be covered by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) if a member brokerage or bank brokerage subsidiary you have accounts with fails.

Are Brokered CDs Better Than Bank CDs?

Brokered CDs do offer some advantages over bank CDs, in terms of flexibility, liquidity, and returns. You’re also free from withdrawal penalties with brokered certificates of deposit. You could, however, avoid this with a no-penalty CD.

What is a no-penalty CD? Simply put, it’s a CD that allows you to withdraw money before maturity without an early withdrawal fee. Some banks offer no-penalty CDs, along with Raise Your Rate CDs and Add-On CDs to savers who want more than just a standard certificate of deposit account.

Here’s something else to keep in mind. You’ll typically need more money to invest in brokered CDs vs. bank CDs. And you’re taking more risk with your money, since brokered CDs are more susceptible to market risk and interest rate risk.

Bank CDs, by comparison, are generally lower-risk investments.

When to Consider Brokered CDs Over Bank CDs

You might choose a brokered CD over bank CDs if brokered certificates of deposit are offering competitive rates and you plan to hold the CD until maturity. Even if rates were to rise during the maturity period, you could still realize a gain when it’s time to cash the CD out.

Paying attention to interest rates can help you decide on the right time to invest in a brokered certificate of deposit. Also, consider the minimum investment and any fees you might pay to purchase the CD.

When to Consider Bank CDs Over Brokered CDs

You might consider bank CDs over brokered CDs if you’d prefer to take less risk with your money. CDs are designed so that you get back the money you put into them, along with the interest earned. Typically, the only time you might lose money from a bank CD is if you cash it out early and have to pay an early withdrawal penalty.

Bank CDs may also be more attractive if you don’t want to tie up your money in a single brokered CD. For example, instead of putting $10,000 into a single brokered certificate of deposit you might spread that out across five or six bank CDs with different maturity dates instead.

This is called CD laddering. Creating a CD ladder can provide some flexibility, since it may be easier to avoid early withdrawal fees if a maturity date is always on the horizon. You could also use a CD ladder to capitalize on rising rates by rolling CDs over once they mature.

Finally, keep in mind that buying CDs is not the only way to save money and potentially help it grow. For instance, if you’re committed to saving, and you want to earn more interest than you’d get with the standard savings account, you might also want to consider opening a high-yield savings account. Taking some time to explore your options can help you determine the best savings vehicles for your needs.

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FAQ

Can you lose money on a brokered CD?

It’s possible to lose money on a brokered CD if you sell it prior to maturity after interest rates have risen. Higher rates can cause the market price of brokered CDs to decline, meaning you could end up selling them for less than what you paid.

Are brokered CDs a good idea?

While it depends on your specific situation, a brokered CD might be a good idea if you understand the risks involved. Brokered certificates of deposit can offer the potential to earn higher interest rates than regular CDs. But it’s also possible to lose money with this type of CD. Be sure to weigh the pros and cons.

What is the difference between a brokered CD and a bank CD?

A brokered CD is issued by a bank and sold by a brokerage. Bank CDs are issued by banks and offered directly to their customers. Brokered CDs may have higher minimum deposit requirements and offer higher interest rates. They are also typically more flexible than bank CDs because you can sell them on the secondary market, while you are required to hold onto bank CDs for the full term or risk paying an early withdrawal penalty.


About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.



Photo credit: iStock/Anchiy

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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Although we do our best to recognize all Eligible Direct Deposits, a small number of employers, payroll providers, benefits providers, or government agencies do not designate payments as direct deposit. To ensure you're earning the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit, we encourage you to check your APY Details page the day after your Eligible Direct Deposit posts to your SoFi account. If your APY is not showing as the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit, contact us at 855-456-7634 with the details of your Eligible Direct Deposit. As long as SoFi Bank can validate those details, you will start earning the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit from the date you contact SoFi for the next 31 calendar days. You will also be eligible for the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit on future Eligible Direct Deposits, as long as SoFi Bank can validate them.

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What Are Discount Brokers? What to Look For in a Broker

What Are Discount Brokers? What to Look for in a Broker

Discount brokers make it possible for investors to buy and sell securities, without paying the higher fees associated with a full-service brokerage. Using a discount brokerage could make sense for investors who are comfortable making trading decisions without the help of an investment professional.

The rise of discount brokerage firms has made investing more accessible for a wider variety of people. Discount stockbrokers can offer both tax-advantaged and taxable investment accounts. It’s possible to build a portfolio with a discount broker that includes different types of investments, including stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other securities.

What Is a Discount Broker?

Discount brokers offer investors access to lower-cost securities trading. Many discount brokerage firms operate online or via mobile investment apps. They’re often geared to the DIY investor who’s interested in self-directed trading.

Some of the characteristics of discount brokers can include:

•   Investment selection that can include stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, bonds

•   Low or zero commission fees to trade stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

•   Fractional share trading

•   Low minimum investment thresholds

•   Investor-guided trading

While discount brokers offer a flexible way to invest they’re still subject to government regulation. Discount brokerage firms must register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). They must also belong to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and the Securities Investor Protection Corp (SIPC).


💡 Quick Tip: Look for an online brokerage with low trading commissions as well as no account minimum. Higher fees can cut into investment returns over time.

History of Discount Brokers

Discount brokerages have grown in popularity in recent years but online trading has its roots in the 1980s.

In 1984, Charles Schwab introduced The Equalizer, the first DOS-based portfolio management and trading tool. Shortly after, competitors entered the market, including TeleBroker, the first phone-based keypad trading application, and StreetSmart, a PC-based trading software program.

In 1992, E-Trade became the first online brokerage service provider. By 1995, E-Trade generated 80% of its revenues from trading commissions and the number of new discount brokerages joining the fray continued to grow. Larger firms, such as Charles Schwab and Fidelity began offering discount broker services. Over the last decade or so, they’ve been joined by newer startups.

Along with the introduction of new online trading platforms and expanded investment options, the discount broker industry has evolved from a pricing perspective. Many, if not most brokerages now offer commission-free trades, for instance.

How Do Discount Brokerages Work?

Discount stock brokerages put the investor in the driver’s seat. You decide which type of account to open with a discount broker. This may be a tax-advantaged account, such as a traditional or Roth Individual Retirement Account (IRA). Or you may choose to open a taxable brokerage account instead.

Once you open your account, you can then decide how to allocate it and how much to invest.

Recommended: Active vs Passive Investing: What You Should Know

With a discount brokerage, you decide how much to invest in each fund or stock. You also have control over how long you hold those investments and when you decide to sell. When you’re ready to execute trades, you may pay low or no commission fees to do so.

Discount brokerages can also open the door to new investment opportunities, beyond stocks or ETFs. For instance, you may be interested in investing in IPO stocks. With a discount brokerage account, you may have tools on hand to help you understand how the IPO process works and how companies set an IPO price. You can then compare IPOs and decide whether you want to invest, based on your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Discount brokers work well for newer investors and more advanced investors alike. They’re not as well suited for venture capitalists or investors with large portfolios who might be interested in crowdfunding options for investing or investors who want access to things like hedge funds and private equity.

Full-Service Brokers vs Discount Brokers: Key Differences

Brokerage firms help investors to execute trades of stocks and other securities. There are two main types of brokers to choose from: full-service and discount brokers.

Full-service Brokerages

Full-service brokerages assist clients with making trades. But they can also provide other services, including offering investment advice. For instance, a broker might recommend specific stocks or mutual funds to invest in. In exchange for this advice, investors pay fees on top of the commissions they may pay to complete trades.

Discount Brokerages

A discount brokerage differs in the scope of services provided and the fees investors pay. With discount stockbrokers, investors receive little to no direct personalized financial advice or analysis from investment professionals. Instead, it’s up to the investor to decide which securities to buy or sell.

Discount brokerage firms are effectively a link between investors and the market, as they help to carry out trade transactions. But they don’t have the higher fees associated with full-service brokerage firms.

Pros and Cons of Working With a Discount Stock Broker

Choosing a discount broker in place of a full-service broker can offer both advantages and disadvantages. While full-service brokers have a longer track record, discount brokers are making it easier for a broader group of investors to gain entry to the market.

Whether using a discount broker makes sense depends on what you need from a brokerage and what you’re willing or able to pay to build a portfolio. Here’s an overview of the main pros and cons to consider when comparing discount stockbrokers against a full-service option.

Pros of Using a Discount Broker

•   Cost. Arguably, the best reason to consider discount brokers in lieu of full-service brokers is cost. Discount brokers charge lower commission fees to trade, and you’re not paying additional costs for their professional investment research or advice since you’re responsible for making investment decisions.

•   Convenience. Discount stock brokerages make it easy to invest from virtually anywhere, since you can execute trades online or via mobile apps. If you come across a buying opportunity, for example, you can log in and complete the transaction in minutes without having to connect with a human broker first.

•   Variety. Another advantage of using a discount stock broker is the selection of investments to which you have access. That may include not only stocks, mutual funds, ETFs and bonds but you may also be able to buy IPO stock, commodities, or options. Discount brokers make it easier to build a diversified portfolio in one place, with minimal costs.

•   Self-directed trading. If you prefer making investment decisions yourself, a discount brokerage account allows you to do so. You can choose when to buy or sell and how much of your portfolio to allocate to one security versus another.

Cons of Using a Discount Broker

•   No access to professional advice. While discount stockbrokers can be cost-friendly, they’re typically missing one big thing: professional advisors to guide you through the investment process and discuss potential investment risks. Whether this is a con for you depends on how comfortable you are charting your own course with investing.

•   Customer support. Every discount brokerage is different in terms of the level of customer service and support they provide. Some may be more helpful than others, which is something to consider when choosing a discount broker.

•   Not fee-free. While many discount brokers charge $0 commissions to trade U.S. stocks and ETFs, that doesn’t mean there are no fees for trading. You may pay fees to trade mutual funds, for example. Or the brokerage may charge an extra fee if you need to complete a trade by phone.

•   Some limits: While discount brokerages give investors access to many types of investments, they don’t typically offer access to some riskier investments, such as hedge funds or crowdfunding.

What to Look for When Choosing a Discount Brokerage to Work With

If you’re interested in opening a brokerage account, researching your options is the first step. While picking the right brokerage won’t guarantee returns, it can make it easier for you to manage your portfolio and focus on your investments. When comparing discount brokers, here are some of the most important things to keep in mind.

•   Cost. First, consider what you’ll pay to trade stocks and other securities at a particular brokerage. Also, be sure to check the full fee schedule to see what additional trading or account fees may apply.

•   Investment selection. Next, consider what investments you can add to your portfolio with a particular discount stock broker. Some discount brokers may not offer certain options.

•   Minimum investment. Depending on where you are on your investing journey, you may have a lot of money or a little to start trading. So consider the minimum investment required to open an account at different discount brokerage firms.

•   User experience. If you’re going to be making trades online or via a mobile device, it’s important that the platform you use be easy to navigate. Check out websites and mobile apps for different discount brokers to see how they compare in terms of features and ease of use.

•   Research tools. Discount stock brokerages may offer research and analysis tools to help you construct your portfolio. Consider what types of tools, (i.e. tickers, stock simulators, etc.) may be available to help with your investment decision-making.

•   Customer support. Look at what type of customer support is available to help investors with a particular discount broker. The more ways you can communicate, such as email, by phone or live chat, the easier it may be to get help managing your account when you need it.

•   Reputation. Finally, consider how well a discount broker stands out compared to the competition. Does it have a great reputation for low-cost trading, for example? Has it won any major industry awards? What are investors saying about the brokerage? Looking at a discount stockbroker’s overall reputation and track record can help decide if it’s a good fit.



💡 Quick Tip: Did you know that opening a brokerage account typically doesn’t come with any setup costs? Often, the only requirement to open a brokerage account — aside from providing personal details — is making an initial deposit.

Discount Brokers Make Investing Affordable

Opening an account with a discount broker can be a first step toward growing wealth. Because they’re generally a low-cost way to invest, you’re able to preserve more of your investment returns over time. These days, most brokers have had to adjust to account for discount brokers in the market, which is generally a good thing for investors.

But remember that discount brokers have their pros and cons, and that investors would do well to do some research before picking a broker. Each broker won’t be the right fit for each investor, so again, take the time to look into potential options before taking the plunge.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.



INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


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What Is a Dead Cat Bounce and How Can You Spot It?

A dead cat bounce refers to an unexpected price jump that occurs after a long, slow decline — and typically just before another price drop. In other words, the price jump isn’t “live” and typically doesn’t last.

The danger can be that the apparent rebound might create a false sense of value, momentum, or optimism. That said, some investors may be able to take advantage of a dead cat bounce to create a short position. Unfortunately, it’s usually hard to identify a dead cat bounce until after the fact.

Nonetheless, investors may want to know some of the signs of this price pattern, as it can help them gauge certain market movements.

Key Points

•   A dead cat bounce refers to a temporary price jump after a decline, often followed by another drop.

•   It is difficult to identify a dead cat bounce in real-time, making it challenging for investors to take advantage of it.

•   Dead cat bounces can occur in individual stocks, bonds, or market sectors.

•   Investors should be cautious when interpreting price movements and consider other factors before making investment decisions.

•   Active investors may use technical analysis and market indicators to help identify potential dead cat bounces.

What Is a Dead Cat Bounce?

The phrase “dead cat bounce” comes from a saying among traders that even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a height that’s high enough.

Thus, when a security or market experiences a steady decline and then appears to bounce back — only to decline again — it’s often dubbed a dead cat bounce.

What can be puzzling for investors is that the bounce, or “recovery”, doesn’t have a rhyme or reason; it’s merely part of a short-term market variation, perhaps driven by market sentiment or other economic factors.

Knowing the Specifics

If you’re learning how to invest in stocks or invest online, bear in mind that a dead cat bounce is not used to describe the ups and downs of a typical trading day — it refers to a longer-term drop, rebound, and continued drop. The term wouldn’t apply to a security that’s continuing to grow in value. The spike must be brief, before the price continues to fall.

It’s also important to point out that this financial phenomenon can pertain to individual securities such as stocks or bonds, to stock trading as a whole, or to a market.

Why It Helps to Identify This Pattern

Even for experienced traders or short-term investors using sophisticated technical analysis, it can be difficult to identify a dead cat bounce. Sometimes a rally is actually a rally; sometimes a drop indicates a bottom.

The point of trying to distinguish whether the rise in price will continue or reverse is because it can influence your strategy. If you have a short position, and you anticipate that a rally in stock price will end in a reversal, you may want to hold steady.

But if you think the rally will continue, you may want to exit a short position.

Example of a Dead Cat Bounce

To illustrate a dead cat bounce, let’s suppose company ABC trades for $70 on June 5, then drops in value to $50 per share over the next four months. Between Oct. 7 and Oct. 14, the price suddenly rises to $65 per share — but then starts to rapidly decline again on Oct. 15. Finally, ABC’s stock price settles at $30 per share on Oct. 16.

This pattern is how a dead cat bounce might appear in a real-life trading situation. The security quickly paused the decline for a swift revival, but the price recovery was temporary before it started falling again and eventually steadied at an even lower price.

Recommended: How to Invest in Stocks

Historical Dead Cat Bounce Pattern

There are countless examples of the dead cat bounce pattern in stocks and other securities, as well as whole markets. One of the most recent affected the entire stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.S. stock market lost about 12% during one week in February 2020, and appeared to revive the following week with a 2% gain. But it turned out to be a false recovery, and the market dipped back down again until later in the summer.

What Causes a Dead Cat Bounce?

A dead cat bounce is often the result of investors believing the market or security in question has hit its low point and they try to buy in to ride the turnaround. It can also occur as a result of investors closing out short positions.

Since these trends aren’t driven by technical factors, that’s why the bounce is typically short-lived — usually lasting a couple of days, or maybe a couple of months.

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*Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $50 within 45 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.026%. See full terms and conditions.

4 Signs of a Dead Cat Bounce

Although a dead cat bounce is typically not reflective of a stock’s intrinsic value, the dramatic price increase may tempt investors to jump on an investment opportunity before it makes sense to do so.

The following typical sequence of events may help an investor correctly identify a dead cat bounce as it might occur with a specific stock.

1. There is a gap down.

Typically the stock opens lower than the previous close, usually a significant amount like 5% (or perhaps 3% if the stock isn’t prone to volatility).

2. The security’s price steadily declines.

In a true dead-cat-bounce scenario, that initial gap down will be followed by a sustained decline.

3. The price sees a monetary gain for a short time.

At some point during the price drop, there will be a turnaround as the price appears to bounce back, close to its previous high.

4. A security’s price begins to regress again.

The rally is short, however, and the stock completes its dead cat bounce pattern with a final decline in price.

Dead Cat Bounce vs. Other Patterns

How do you know whether the pattern you’re seeing is really a classic dead cat bounce versus other types of movements? Here are some clues.

Dead Cat Bounce or Rally?

One way to assess a dead cat bounce with a particular stock is to consider whether the now-rising stock is still as weak as it was when its price was falling. If there’s no market indicator as to why the stock is rebounding, you might suspect a dead cat bounce.

Dead Cat Bounce or Lowest Price?

Since investors are looking for opportunities to profit, they try to find investment opportunities that allow them to buy low and sell high.

Therefore, when assessing investment opportunities, a successful investor might try to recognize emerging companies, and buy shares of a stock while the price is low, and before other investors get wind of a potential opportunity.

Since companies go through business cycles where stock prices fluctuate, pinpointing the lowest price point might be hard. There’s no way to know if a dead cat bounce is really happening until the prices have resumed their descent.

Dead Cat Bounce or Bear Market Bottom?

Investors may also confuse a dead cat bounce for the actual bottom of a bear market. It’s not uncommon for stocks to significantly rebound after the bear market hits bottom.

History shows that the S&P 500 often sees substantial gains within the first few months of hitting bottom after a bear market. But these rallies have been sustained, and thus are not a dead cat bounce.

Investing Strategies to Avoid a Dead Cat Bounce

For investors who want a more hands-on investing approach — meaning active investing vs. passive — it’s generally better to use investing fundamentals to evaluate a security instead of attempting to time the market (and risk mistaking a dead cat bounce for an opportunity).

Investors who are just starting may want to consider building a portfolio of a dozen or so securities. Picking a few stocks allows investors to monitor performance while giving their portfolio a little diversification. This means the investor distributes their money across several different types of securities instead of investing all of their money in one security, which in turn can help to minimize risk.

Active investors could also consider selecting stocks across varying sectors to give their portfolio even more diversification instead of sticking to one niche.

Investors with restricted funds might consider investing in just a few stocks while offsetting risk by investing in mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For investors who would prefer not to execute an active investing strategy alone, they can speak with a professional manager. Working with a professional manager may help the investors better navigate the intricacies of various market cycles.

Limitations in Identifying a Dead Cat Bounce

As noted several times here, a dead cat bounce can’t really be identified with 100% certainty until after the fact. While some traders may believe they can predict a dead cat bounce by using certain fundamental or technical analysis tools, it’s impossible to do so every single time.

If there were a way to accurately predict market movements or different patterns, people would always try to time the market. But there are no crystal balls in investing, as they say.

The Takeaway

With 20-20 hindsight, investors and analysts can clearly see that an individual security or market has experienced a steady drop in value, a brief rebound, and then a further drop — a phenomenon known as a dead cat bounce.

Unfortunately, though, it can be too hard for most investors to distinguish between a dead cat bounce and a bona fide rally, or the bottom of a given market or security’s price. Still, knowing what to look for may help investors make more informed choices, especially when it comes to making a choice around keeping or closing out a short position.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


About the author

Ashley Kilroy

Ashley Kilroy

Ashley Kilroy is a seasoned personal finance writer with 15 years of experience simplifying complex concepts for individuals seeking financial security. Her expertise has shined through in well-known publications like Rolling Stone, Forbes, SmartAsset, and Money Talks News. Read full bio.



INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by emailing customer service at [email protected]. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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What Is a Recession?

A recession is a period of general economic contraction. Recessions are typically accompanied by falling stock markets, a rise in unemployment, a drop in income and consumer spending, and increased business failures.

Recessions tend to have a wide-ranging economic impact, affecting businesses, jobs, everyday individuals, and investment returns. But defining what, exactly, a recession is, and the long-term repercussions they may have on personal financial situations is tricky.

Different Recession Definitions

A recession is often defined as a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) — which represents the total value of goods and services produced in the country — for at least two quarters in a row. However, this is not an official definition of a recession, and instead, is just a shorthand that some economists and investors use when analyzing the economy.

Recessions are officially defined and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). So, when GDP dropped two straight quarters in 2022 (Q1 and Q2), the NBER didn’t declare a recession because other indicators, such as unemployment, didn’t necessarily align with a recessionary environment.

Consumers and workers may believe that the economy is in a recession when unemployment or inflation rises, even though economic output may still be growing. That can affect all sorts of things, including the stock market, and put a damper on investors’ hopes as they trade stocks and other securities.

Recommended: Recession Survival Guide and Help Center

NBER’s Definition

The NBER defines a recession as a significant and widespread decline in economic activity that lasts a few months. The economists at the NBER use a wide range of economic indicators to determine the peaks and troughs of economic activity. The NBER chooses to define a recession in terms of monthly indicators, including:

•   Employment. Job growth or job loss can be used to gauge the likelihood of a recession, and serve as a litmus test of sorts for which way the economy is moving.

•   Personal income. Personal income can play a direct role in influencing recessionary environments. When consumers have more personal income to spend, that can fuel a growing economy. But when personal income declines or purchasing power declines because of rising interest rates, that can be a recession indicator.

•   Industrial production. Industrial production is a measure of manufacturing activity. If manufacturing begins to slow down, that could suggest slumping demand in the economy and, in turn, a shrinking economy.

These indicators are then viewed against the backdrop of quarterly gross domestic product growth to determine if a recession is in progress. Therefore, the NBER doesn’t follow the commonly accepted rule of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as that alone isn’t considered a reliable indicator of recessionary movements in the economy.

Additionally, the NBER is a backward-looking organization, declaring a recession after one has already begun and announcing the trough of economic activity after it has already bottomed.

Julius Shiskin Definition

The shorthand of using two negative quarters of GDP growth can be traced back to a definition of a recession that first originated in the 1970s with Julius Shiskin, once commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shiskin defined recession as meaning:

•   Two consecutive quarters of negative gross national product (GNP) growth

•   1.5% decline in real GNP

•   15% decline in non-farm payroll employment

•   Unemployment reaching at least 6%

•   Six months or more of job losses in more than 75% of industries

•   Six months or more of decline in industrial production

It’s important to note that Shiskin’s recession definition used GNP, whereas modern definitions of recession use GDP instead. GNP, or gross national product, measures the value of goods and services produced by a country both domestically and internationally. Gross domestic product only measures the value of goods and services produced within the country itself.

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How Often Do Recessions Occur?

Economic recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. According to the NBER, the U.S. experienced 33 recessions prior to the coronavirus pandemic. The first documented recession occurred in 1857, and the most recent was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which started in February 2020 and ended in April 2020.

Since World War II, a recession has occurred, on average, every six years, though the actual timing can and has varied.

U.S. Recessions Since World War II

Start of Recession

End of Recession

Number of Months

November 1948 October 1949 11
July 1953 May 1954 10
August 1957 April 1958 8
April 1960 February 1961 10
December 1969 November 1970 11
November 1973 March 1975 16
January 1980 July 1980 6
July 1981 November 1982 16
July 1990 March 1991 8
March 2001 November 2001 8
December 2007 June 2009 18
February 2020 April 2020 2
Source: NBER

How Long Do Recessions Last?

According to the NBER, the shortest recession occurred following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and lasted two months, while the longest went from 1873 to 1879, lasting 65 months. The Great Recession lasted 18 months between December 2007 and June 2009 and was the longest recession since World War II.

If you consider the other 12 recessions following World War II, they have lasted, on average, about ten months.
Periods of economic expansion tend to last longer than periods of recession. From 1945 to 2020, the average expansion lasted 64 months, while the average recession lasted ten months.

Between the 1850s and World War II, economic expansions lasted an average of 26 months, while recessions lasted an average of 21 months.

The Great Recession between 2007 and 2009 was the most severe economic drawdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This recession was considered particularly damaging due to its duration, unemployment levels that peaked at around 10%, and the widespread impact on the housing market.

6 Common Causes of Recessions

The causes of recessions can vary greatly. Generally speaking, recessions happen when something causes a loss of confidence among businesses and consumers.

The mechanics behind a typical recession work like this: consumers lose confidence and stop spending, driving down demand for goods and services. As a result, the economy shifts from growth to contraction. This can, in turn, lead to job losses, a slowdown in borrowing, and a continued decline in consumer spending.

Here are some common characteristics of recessions:

1. High Interest Rates

High interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, limiting the amount of money available to spend and invest. In the past, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar or prevent the economy from overheating, which has, at times, resulted in a recession.

For example, the 1970s saw a period of stagnant growth and inflation that came to be known as “stagflation.” To fight it, the Fed raised interest rates throughout the decade, which created the recessions between 1980 and 1982.

2. Falling Housing Prices

If housing demand falls, so does the value of people’s homes. Homeowners may no longer be able to tap their house’s equity. As a result, homeowners may have less money in their pockets to spend, reducing consumption in the economy.

3. Stock Market Crash

A stock market crash occurs when a stock market index drops severely. If it falls by at least 20%, it enters what is known as a “bear market.” Stock market crashes can result in a recession since individual investors’ net worth declines, causing them to reduce spending because of a negative wealth effect. It can also cut into confidence among businesses, causing them to spend and hire less.

As stock prices drop, businesses may also face less access to capital and may produce less. They may have to lay off workers, whose ability to spend is curtailed. As this pattern continues, the economy may contract into recession.

4. Reduction in Real Wages

Real wages describe how much income an individual makes when adjusted for inflation. In other words, it represents how far consumer income can go in terms of the goods and services it can purchase.

When real wages shrink, a recession can begin. Consumers can lose confidence when they realize their income isn’t keeping up with inflation, leading to less spending and economic slowdown.

5. Bursting Bubbles

Asset bubbles are to blame for some of the most significant recessions in U.S. history, including the stock market bubble in the 1920s, the tech bubble in the 1990s, and the housing bubble in the 2000s.

An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate, quickly rises without actual value in the asset to justify the rise.

As prices rise, new investors jump in, hoping to take advantage of the rapidly growing market. Yet, when the bubble bursts — for example, if demand runs out — the market can collapse, eventually leading to recession.

6. Deflation

Deflation is a widespread drop in prices, which an oversupply of goods and services can cause. This oversupply can result in consumers and businesses saving money rather than spending it. This is because consumers and businesses would rather wait to purchase goods and services that may be lower in price in the future. As demand falls and people spend less, a recession can follow due to the contraction in consumption and economic activity.

How Do Recessions Affect You?

Businesses may have fewer customers when the economy begins to slow down because consumers have less real income to spend. So they institute layoffs as a cost-cutting measure, which means unemployment rates rise.

As more people lose their jobs, they have less to spend on discretionary items, which means fewer sales and lower revenue for businesses. Individuals who can keep their jobs may choose to save their money rather than spend it, leading to less revenue for businesses.

Investors may see the value of their portfolios shrink if a recession triggers stock market volatility. Homeowners may also see a decline in their home’s equity if home values drop because of a recession.

When consumer spending declines, corporate earnings start to shrink. If a business doesn’t have enough resources to weather the storm, it may have to file for bankruptcy.

Recommended: How to Invest During a Recession

Governments and central banks will often do what they can to head off recession through monetary or fiscal stimulus to boost employment and spending.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, can provide monetary policy stimulus. The Fed can lower interest rates, which reduces the cost of borrowing. As more people borrow, there’s more money in circulation and more incentive to spend and invest.

Fiscal stimulus can come from tax breaks or incentives that increase outputs and incomes in the short term. Governments may put together stimulus packages to boost economic growth, as the U.S. government did in 2009 and in 2020.

For example, stock market volatility increased wildly amid fears of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout. To ward off recession, the U.S. government put together trillions in Covid-19 stimulus packages that included direct payments to citizens, suspended student loan payments, a boost to unemployment benefits, and a lending program for businesses and state and local governments.

Recessions vs Depressions and Bear Markets

Though recessions, depressions, and bear markets may all feel or seem similar, there are some differences investors should be aware of.

Recessions vs Depressions

When a recession occurs, it could stir up uneasy feelings that perhaps the economy will enter a depression. However, there are significant differences between recessions and depression. While recessions are a normal part of the business cycle that last less than a year, depressions are a severe decline in economic output that can last for years. Consider that the Great Recession lasted 18 months, while the Great Depression lasted about ten years.

Recessions vs Bear Markets

A recession is also different from a bear market, even though many think the two events go hand-in-hand.

A bear market begins when the stock market drops 20% from its recent high. If you look at the benchmark S&P 500 index, there have been 14 bear markets since 1945.

Yet, not all bear markets result in recession. During 1987’s infamous Black Monday stock market crash, the S&P 500 lost 34%, and the resulting bear market lasted four months. However, the economy did not dissolve into recession.
That’s happened three other times since 1947. Bear markets have lasted 14 months on average since World War II, and the most significant decline since then was the bear market of 2007–2009.

That’s why it’s important to keep in mind that the stock market is not the same as the economy, though they are related. Investors react to changes in economic conditions because what’s happening in the economy can affect the companies in which investors own stock.

So, if investors think the economy is growing, they may be more willing to put money in the stock market. They will likely pull money out of the stock market if they believe it is contracting. These reactions can function as a sort of prediction of recession.

Recommended: Bear Market Investing Strategies

Is It Possible to Predict a Recession?

Economists and investors try to predict recession, but it’s difficult to do, and they often end up wrong. Economists usually frame the possibility of a recession as a probability. For example, they may say there’s a 35% chance of a recession in the next year.

There are several methods economists use to try to predict recessions. Some of the most common include analyzing economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, as well as consumer and business confidence surveys. Economists build models with these economic indicators as inputs, hoping the data will help them determine the path of economic growth. While these methods can indicate whether a recession might be on the horizon, they are far from perfect.

One issue in predicting a recession is that a lot of data analysts use to forecast the economy are backward looking indicators. These data, like the unemployment rate or GDP, present a picture of the economy as it was a month or more prior. Using this data to paint a picture of the present economy becomes difficult and adds to the complexity of predicting a recession.

However, many analysts believe the yield curve is the best indicator to help predict a recession. When the yield curve inverts, meaning that the interest rate on short-term Treasuries is higher than on long-term Treasuries, it is a warning sign that the economy is heading to a recession. An inverted yield curve has occurred before all 10 U.S. recessions since 1955. Notably, however, the yield curve inverted in 2022, and a recession did not subsequently occur (yet).

The Takeaway

Recessions are periods of economic contraction, and are usually accompanied by rising unemployment and a falling stock market – though that’s not always the case.

The possibility of a recession can be unsettling, causing you to think of economic hardships and spark fears of personal financial troubles. However, recessions are a regular part of the business cycle, so you should be prepared for one if and when it comes. When it comes to investing, this means building and maintaining a portfolio to meet long-term goals.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.



INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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