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Homeownership continues to be a key part of the American dream. But exactly how much money do you need to make if living the dream means taking on a $175,000 mortgage? While the specific income figures required vary depending on other financial factors, a $175,000 mortgage will likely require an income in the neighborhood of $60,000.

There are several rules of thumb you can follow to get an estimate of how much mortgage you can afford. Let’s take a closer look.

Income Needed for a $175,000 Mortgage

Unfortunately there is not a simple answer to the question of how much income you need to qualify for a mortgage. That’s because mortgage qualification involves a complex calculation that factors in other finance figures like your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, how much money you have for a down payment, your credit score, and even your location.

However, there are generally accepted formulas that can help us get a ballpark income estimate, all other things being equal.

How Much Do You Need to Make to Get a $175K Mortgage?

That formula we were talking about states your housing payment should be about 30% of your gross income — that is, the amount you earn each month before taking out taxes and deductions. From here, we can do some reverse engineering. Using an online mortgage calculator, you can estimate the monthly payment on a $175,000 mortgage. (Along with the property’s total value and your projected down payment, you’ll also need to put in an estimated interest rate. Keep in mind that the rate you qualify for will depend on your credit score, and that baseline interest rates change regularly as the market fluctuates.)

Say you’re buying a $200,000 house with a $25,000 down payment, leading to your $175,000 mortgage. At an estimated 7% interest rate, your monthly mortgage loan payment would be around $1,170. When you add taxes, insurance, and private mortgage insurance (PMI), your total monthly payment will be around $1,600. For simplicity’s sake, we can multiply that total by three to find out an approximate minimum monthly gross income at which such a mortgage is affordable. When we do, we get $4,800, or about $58,000 in annual income.

Still, keep in mind that a home affordability calculator can provide only an estimate. Many other factors play into your actual monthly mortgage payment, including property taxes in your area, and your DTI ratio.

This last piece is a big enough deal in the world of home-lending that it’s worth taking some time to explore, so let’s do that now.

What Is a Good Debt-to-Income Ratio?

Your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio is the amount of debt you owe each month versus your available income. It’s calculated by dividing your monthly debt payments by your gross monthly income. For instance, if you earn $3,500 per month and pay $500 toward your car payment and $350 toward student loans, your DTI ratio would be calculated like so:

(500+350)/3,500 = 0.24, or a DTI of 24%

While each lender has its own specific qualifying criteria, generally speaking, a lower DTI is better. Most lenders will begin to disapprove applicants whose DTI hits 36% or so, though you may be able to get approved with a DTI of up to 50% in some cases. (Still, even if you can get approved, a higher DTI ratio likely means your housing payment will be more difficult to make each month.)

What Determines How Much House You Can Afford?

As we’ve seen already, there are lots of different factors that determine how much house you can afford. A few of those include:

•   Your income

•   Your DTI ratio

•   Your credit score

•   Your down payment

•   The cost of living in your location

What Mortgage Lenders Look For

While, again, each specific mortgage lender has its own qualifying criteria (and these may also shift depending on what kind of mortgage you’re applying for), some of the primary factors lenders look as an applicant goes through the mortgage preapproval process include:

•   Reliable and sufficient income

•   Favorable credit history and credit score

•   Sufficient existing assets, such as cash and investments

•   Reasonable levels of existing debt (DTI ratio)

$175,000 Mortgage Breakdown Examples

A little-understood characteristic of mortgages: Although each monthly payment is identical (in the case of a fixed-rate mortgage, at least), the proportional amount of each payment that goes toward interest varies over the life of the loan. Toward the beginning of your loan, the bulk of your monthly payment is going toward interest rather than principal, which helps ensure the lender gets paid for its services. This breakdown is known as the amortization of the loan, and it’s well worth looking up ahead of time so you understand exactly how much of your money is going where.

Looking up the amortization schedule ahead of time can also reveal how much you’ll pay in interest over the entire lifetime of the loan, which depends on your interest rate and loan term. Here are two examples of how the same $175,000 loan breaks down differently depending on these factors:

10-year fixed rate loan at 7.00%
Monthly payment: $2,032
Total paid over the life of the loan: $243,828
Total interest paid: $68,828

30-year fixed rate loan at 7.00%
Monthly payment: $1,164
Total paid over the life of the loan: $419,140
Total interest paid: $244,140

Pros and Cons of a $175,000 Mortgage

Like any decision in life, financial or otherwise, there are both drawbacks and benefits to consider when you’re contemplating taking out a $175,000 mortgage. Here are a few of them at a glance:

Pros

•   A $175,000 mortgage is substantially lower than the median sale price of homes in the United States as per the first quarter of 2024 ($420,800).

•   Although there’s no guarantee, homes do tend to appreciate over time, which means the debt may be worth it in the long run, even with interest.

•   Owning your own home offers stability and can help build generational wealth.

•   The interest on your housing payment may be tax deductible.

•   If you pay your mortgage on time each month, your credit score may improve.

Cons

•   Interest means you’ll likely pay far more than the home is worth today over the lifetime of the loan.

•   If you fall behind on your mortgage payments, you’re at risk of having your home go into foreclosure.

•   As a homeowner, you’ll be responsible for any and all maintenance and repairs your home requires.

•   Along with your mortgage, you’ll also need to pay property taxes, homeowners insurance, and other related costs.

How Much Will You Need for a Down Payment?

While a well-known rule of thumb states that homebuyers should save up a 20% down payment before they make a purchase, these days you can put down far less than that. For example, many conventional mortgages allow first-time borrowers to put down as little as 3%, which, for a $200,000 home purchase, adds up to $6,000. (A 20% down payment would be $40,000.)

However, keep in mind that a lower down payment means you’ll likely need to pay for PMI. This cost can add a few hundred dollars to your monthly payment, which can make it harder for some borrowers to make ends meet each month.

Is a $175K Mortgage With No Down Payment a Good Idea?

There are some programs, such as VA loans (from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs), that allow borrowers to take out a mortgage with no down payment at all. However, even if you qualify for such a loan, it’s important to consider its potential drawbacks before you agree.

Because a low- or no-down-payment mortgage may be seen as a riskier prospect to the lender, it may come at a higher interest rate — which could drive up how much you pay in total over the lifetime of the loan. It also means you’ll start out your homeownership journey with no equity in your house, meaning the value of your share of the ownership will build more slowly over time.

Still, these programs can help some borrowers buy a house far sooner than they might otherwise be able to, while keeping some funds freed up for other costs (including potential home maintenance and repair). In short, only you can decide if a no-down-payment mortgage is a good move for you, but be sure you’re making the decision with knowledge on your side.

Can’t Afford a $175K Mortgage With No Down Payment?

If you’re having trouble qualifying for a $175,000 mortgage, even without a down payment, there are some steps you can take to help get your ducks in a row — and make your homeownership dreams possible in the not-too-distant future.

Pay Off Debt

Given how important DTI is when it comes to qualifying mortgage applicants, paying off existing debt can be a huge boon toward getting your application approved — and it’ll also make paying your monthly mortgage a lot easier.

Look Into First-Time Homebuyer Programs

There are many first-time homebuyer programs out there that are specifically designed to help people whose financial histories may be a little shorter or spottier. For instance, depending on your income, your local government may offer low-cost down payment assistance loans, and you can also look into an FHA mortgage, which is backed by the Federal Housing Administration and can help those with lower credit scores get qualified.

Build Up Credit

While it’s possible to qualify for a home loan with a lower credit score, if you build it up, it’s a whole lot easier — and you’ll likely get a better interest rate, which will lower your overall costs. Some reliable ways to build your credit include making on-time payments and lowering your overall revolving balance.

Start Budgeting

Budgeting is the best way to meet just about any financial goal — because when you do, you’ve got a blueprint for where your money is going. If you’ve yet to create a budget, do so, and look for areas where you might be able to make cuts that could go toward your new-home savings fund.

Alternatives to Conventional Mortgage Loans

While conventional mortgages are available from many different lenders, they’re not the only ones on the market — or necessarily the best for all borrowers. You may also qualify for different types of mortgage loans, such as:

•   FHA loans, which are designed specifically for first-time home buyers

•   VA loans, which are for service members, veterans, and qualifying surviving family members

•   U.S. Department of Agriculture loans, which help households under certain income thresholds purchase homes in eligible rural areas

Mortgage Tips

No matter which mortgage program you go with, the best tip is to shop around. Different lenders may be able to qualify you for different rates, and as we’ve seen above, interest can really add up. Even a fraction of a percentage difference could translate to thousands of dollars over a 30-year loan! Remember that if you can’t qualify for the lowest rate initially, you may find that you can do a mortgage refinance in the future.

The Takeaway

As we’ve seen, there’s no one simple answer to the question, “How much money do I need to make to take out a $175,000 mortgage?” Rather, the mortgage qualification process is a more complex and holistic process that involves your debt level, income, credit history, and many other factors. However, with the many different programs available for first-time homebuyers, there’s a good chance you may be able to find a way to qualify.

Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.

SoFi Mortgages: simple, smart, and so affordable.

FAQ

How much mortgage can I afford with a $175,000 income?

If you’re earning $175,000 per year, that’s about $14,500 per month. Your housing payment should be no more than 30% of your monthly gross income — which calculates to $4,350 per month. With an income like this, you can probably afford a mortgage around $550,000 depending on your other debts and how much you have available for a down payment.

How much is a $175,000 mortgage per month?

Your exact mortgage payment will depend on many factors, including your interest rate. Borrow $175,000 with a 7% interest rate and a 30-year term, and the monthly payment will be around $1,164, excluding taxes and insurance.

Is $2,000 a lot for a mortgage?

Whether $2,000 per month is a lot to pay on a mortgage depends on how much you’re earning and how much of a squeeze you feel when you make that monthly payment. Most people would need to be earning about $6,000 per month or $72,000 per year — with little to no other debts — for a $2,000 mortgage payment to feel comfortable.

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SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.

SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information.

*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

^¹FHA loans are subject to unique terms and conditions established by FHA and SoFi. Ask your SoFi loan officer for details about eligibility, documentation, and other requirements. FHA loans require an Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium (UFMIP), which may be financed or paid at closing, in addition to monthly Mortgage Insurance Premiums (MIP). Maximum loan amounts vary by county. The minimum FHA mortgage down payment is 3.5% for those who qualify financially for a primary purchase. SoFi is not affiliated with any government agency.
^†Veterans, Service members, and members of the National Guard or Reserve may be eligible for a loan guaranteed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. VA loans are subject to unique terms and conditions established by VA and SoFi. Ask your SoFi loan officer for details about eligibility, documentation, and other requirements. VA loans typically require a one-time funding fee except as may be exempted by VA guidelines. The fee may be financed or paid at closing. The amount of the fee depends on the type of loan, the total amount of the loan, and, depending on loan type, prior use of VA eligibility and down payment amount. The VA funding fee is typically non-refundable. SoFi is not affiliated with any government agency.

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Paying down debt can be an important financial priority, but should you use your savings in order to do so? While it can be tempting to throw your full efforts into paying off debt, maintaining a healthy savings account for emergencies and saving for retirement are also important financial goals.

Continue reading for more information on why it may not always make sense to use savings to pay off debt and ideas and strategies to help you expedite your debt repayment without sacrificing your savings account.

The Case Against Using Savings to Pay Off Debt

Emptying your savings account to pay off debt could cause you to rely on credit cards to cover necessary expenses, which has the potential to create a cycle of debt. Think of it this way — it can be much harder to get yourself out of debt if you keep using credit cards to cover unexpected costs.

Consider creating a plan to pay off high-interest debt while maintaining or building your emergency fund. This way, you’ll be better prepared to deal with unexpected expenses — like a trip to the emergency room.

How to Start Paying Off Debt Without Dipping Into Your Savings

First off, if you do not have an established emergency fund, consider crafting a budget that will allow you to build one while you simultaneously focus on paying down debt. The exact size of your emergency fund will depend on your personal expenses and income. A general rule of thumb suggests saving between three and six months worth of living expenses in an emergency savings account. Having this available to you can help you avoid taking on additional debt if you encounter unforeseen expenses.

Make a Budget

Now’s a good time to update or make a budget from scratch. Understanding your spending vs. income is essential to help you pay off your debt and avoid going into further debt. You’ll want to review all of your expenses and sources of income and figure out how to allocate your income across debt payments, while still allowing you to save for your future.

Establish a Debt Payoff Strategy

To start, you’ll need to review each of your debts, making note of the amount owed and interest rates. This is important to create a full picture for how much you owe. Next, you’ll need to pick a debt pay-off strategy that will work for you. Here’s a look at some popular debt-reduction plans.

•   The snowball method: With this approach, you list debts from smallest balance to largest — ignoring the interest rates. You then put extra money towards the debt with the smallest balance, while making minimum payments on all the other debts. When that debt is paid off, you move to the next largest debt, and so on until all debts are paid off. With this method, early wins can help keep you motivated to continue tackling your debt.

•   The avalanche method: Here, you’ll list your debts in order of interest rate, from highest to lowest. You then put extra money towards the debt with the highest interest rate, while paying the minimum on the rest. When that debt is paid off, you move on to the debt with the next-highest rate, and so on. This strategy helps minimize the amount of interest you pay, which can help you save money in the long term.

•   The fireball method: With this hybrid strategy, you categorize all debt into either “good” or “bad” debt. “Good” debt is debt that has the potential to increase your net worth, such as student loans, business loans, or mortgages. “Bad” debt is generally high-interest debt incurred for a depreciating asset, like credit card debt and car loans. Next, you’ll list bad debts from smallest to largest based on balance. You then funnel extra money to the smallest of the bad debts, while making minimum payments on the others. When that balance is paid off, you go on to the next-smallest debt on the bad-debt list, and so on. Once all the bad debt is paid off, you can simply keep paying off good debt on the normal schedule. You then put money you were paying on your bad debt towards savings.

Different people may prefer one strategy over another, the key is to select something that works best with your debts, income, and financial personality.

Consider Debt Consolidation

If you have debt with a variety of lenders, one option is to consider consolidating your debt with a personal loan. Instead of making multiple payments across lenders, you’ll instead have just one payment for your personal loan. Consolidating credit card debt is a common use for a personal loan because personal loans typically have lower interest rates than credit cards. Using a personal loan to pay off your credit card balances not only streamlines repayment but can potentially help you save on interest and pay off your debt faster.

Most personal loans are unsecured (no collateral required), which means you’ll qualify for the loan solely based on your creditworthiness. Personal loans for debt consolidation typically have fixed interest rates, so your payments remain the same for the term of the loan. To find the best personal loan for you, it’s a good idea to shop around and review the options available at a few different lenders, including banks, credit unions, and online lenders.

Recommended: How to Use a Personal Loan for Loan Consolidation

How to Reduce Spending to Pay Off Debt Quicker

Reducing your spending can make more room in your budget for debt payments. Making overpayments can help speed up debt payoff, but it can be challenging to amend your spending habits. To lower your spending, you’ll want to take an honest look at your current expenses and spending habits.

You can start by reviewing your credit card and bank statements to see where your money is going. Next, divide your spending into “needs” vs. “wants” and look for places where you can cut back in the “wants” category. For example, you might decide to cook dinner a few more times a week and get less takeout, cancel a streaming service you rarely watch, and/or quit the gym and start working out at home

You may also be able to reduce some of your so-called “fixed” expenses like your cell phone and internet service by shopping around for a more competitive offer or switching to a less expensive plan.

If you’ve already got a tight budget, the alternative is to increase your revenue stream. Consider a side hustle to boost your income and funnel that additional money toward debt payments. You may even be able to find a side gig that allows you to make money from home.

Paying Off Debt the Smart Way

It can be tempting to throw your savings at debt to avoid racking up expensive interest charges. But draining your savings account — or failing to save at all — in favor of debt payoff might not be a smart strategy.

With little or no savings, you’ll be less prepared for any emergency expenses in the future, which could lead to even more debt. Consider building your savings while paying off debt by creating a budget, cutting your expenses or boosting your income, and finding (and sticking to) a debt repayment strategy.

If you have high-interest credit card debt, you might consider using a personal loan to consolidate your debt. If the loan has a lower interest rate than you’re paying on your credit card balances, doing this could potentially help you save money and pay off your debt faster.

With low fixed interest rates on loans of $5K to $100K, a SoFi personal loan for credit card debt can substantially decrease your monthly bills.

SoFi’s Personal Loan was named NerdWallet’s 2024 winner for Best Personal Loan overall.

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SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.

Non affiliation: SoFi isn’t affiliated with any of the companies highlighted in this article.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; expected rate of return is calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.

Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.

What Is the Expected Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.

Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.

This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.

However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

How To Calculate Expected Return

To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.

The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:

Expected Return = (R1 * P1) + (R2 * P2) + … + (Rn * Pn)

In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.

For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)

The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:

Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)

Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%

Expected Return = 12%

What Is Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.

A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).

Recommended: What Is the Average Stock Market Return?

How to Calculate Rate of Return

The formula to calculate the rate of return is:

Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100

Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.

In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10

A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.

Recommended: What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?

Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data

To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:

Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ
Year	Return
2011	16%
2012	22%
2013	1%
2014	-4%
2015	8%
2016	-11%
2017	31%
2018	7%
2019	13%
2020	22%

For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).

Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.

The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:

Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)

Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%

Expected return = 10%

Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.

However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.

💡 Quick Tip: The best stock trading app? That’s a personal preference, of course. Generally speaking, though, a great app is one with an intuitive interface and powerful features to help make trades quickly and easily.

How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns

When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.

Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC
Scenario	Return	Probability	Outcome (Return * Probability)
1	14%	30%	4.2%
2	2%	10%	0.2%
3	22%	30%	6.6%
4	-18%	10%	-1.8%
5	-21%	10%	-2.1%
Total		100%	7.1%

Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.

Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel

Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel (or another spreadsheet software):

1. In the first row, enter column labels:

•   A1: Investment

•   B1: Gain A

•   C1: Probability of Gain A

•   D1: Gain B

•   E1: Probability of Gain B

•   F1: Expected Rate of Return

2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2

•   Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%

3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)

4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2

If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.

If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.

Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula

Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.

Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.

In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.

Standard Deviation

To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.

Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.

Year	Annual Return of Investment A	Annual Return of Investment B
2011	16%	8%
2012	22%	4%
2013	1%	3%
2014	-6%	0%
2015	8%	6%
2016	-11%	-2%
2017	31%	9%
2018	7%	5%
2019	13%	15%
2020	22%	14%
Average Annual Return	10%	6%
Standard Deviation	13%	5%

Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.

Recommended: A Guide to Historical Volatility

Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.

Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes different types of bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.

In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.

Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return

Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.

What Is the Dividend Discount Model?

Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.

The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:

RRR = (Expected dividend payment / Share price) + Projected dividend growth rate

So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:

RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5

RRR = .10 + .05

RRR = .15, or 15%

What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.

In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.

The formula is:

RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)

For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)

RRR = .01 + .06

RRR = .07, or 7%

The Takeaway

There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.

There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.

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FAQ

How do you find the expected rate of return?

An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.

How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?

The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.

What is a good rate of return?

A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.

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