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Dec

2024

Business Cycle Investing

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Investors often pay attention to the ups and downs of economic activity — fluctuations known as the business cycle — and readjust their investments accordingly. With this business cycle investing strategy, investors typically adjust their exposure to various sectors with stocks or bonds in their portfolios. Some industries outperform during economic expansions, while others do better during contractions.

Business cycle investing is not an exact science, and past performance isn’t indicative of future returns. But historically, specific industries have prospered during each stage of the business cycle. Here’s a rundown of the different business cycle stages and which industries have been more favorable to invest in during each phase.

Key Points

• Business cycle investing involves adjusting investments based on economic fluctuations, with different industries performing better during various stages of the cycle.

• The business cycle includes expansion, peak, contraction, and trough phases, each affecting investment strategies differently.

• During expansions, consumer-oriented sectors and industries benefiting from business investment tend to thrive.

• Recessions see industries like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities performing well due to consistent demand.

• Business cycle investing requires understanding economic indicators and market trends, but it can be challenging due to unpredictability.

What Is a Business Cycle?

A business cycle refers to the periodic expansion and contraction of a nation’s economy. Also known as an economic cycle, it tracks the different stages of growth and decline in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity.

Worker productivity, population growth, and technological innovations are all factors that can contribute to whether an economy is going through a period of boom or bust. Such elements play a role in how many goods and services a nation’s businesses produce and how much its consumers purchase.

Other factors, such as wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and political instability, can also influence the economy. These can cause a recession to happen sooner or otherwise shift the economic environment of a nation or the world.

In the U.S., the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces whether the economy is in a recession or a new iteration of the business cycle. Policymakers attempt to manage the business cycle by adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, such as taxes, stimulus packages, or interest rates.

Some people refer to business cycles and market cycles interchangeably. However, the business cycle measures the entire economy, while market cycles refer to the ups and downs of the stock market. Although the two can be correlated, they aren’t the same.

How Does the Business Cycle Work?

The business cycle works by alternating between periods of economic growth and decline. During the expansion phase, economic activity grows, and the economy is relatively healthy. A period of economic expansion is typically characterized by low unemployment, rising wages, and increasing consumer and business confidence.

Eventually, the economy will reach its peak and start to contract. This is typically characterized by slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and declining consumer and business confidence. As businesses see a decline in demand, they may lay off workers or reduce production, leading to a downward spiral of declining economic activity.

The trough phase is the lowest point in the business cycle. Economic activity is at its weakest, and unemployment is at its highest. This phase is also known as the recession bottom. From here, the economy begins to recover, and the business cycle starts over again.

How Reliable Is the Business Cycle?

The business cycle is a reliable pattern of economic activity observed over time, but it is not always predictable. Business cycles tend to follow a similar pattern, with periods of expansion followed by periods of contraction, but each phase’s timing, length, and severity can vary significantly.

Stages of the Business Life Cycle

There are four stages of the business cycle, which fall into two phases: a growth phase of expansion and a declining phase of contraction. A business cycle can last anywhere from one year to 10 or more years. Since 1945, there have been 12 business cycles.

Stage 1: Recession

The recession phase is the lowest point in the business cycle. Also known as the contraction phase, a weak economy and high unemployment define this period.

GDP, profits, sales, and economic activity decline during this stage. Credit is tight for both consumers and businesses due to the policies set during the last business cycle. It’s a vicious cycle of falling production, incomes, employment, and GDP.

The intensity of a recession is measured by looking at the three Ds:

• Depth: The measure of peak-to-trough decline in sales, income, employment, and output. The trough is the lowest point the GDP reaches during a cycle. Before World War II, recessions used to be much deeper than they are now.

• Diffusion: How far the recession spreads across industries, regions, and activities.

• Duration: The amount of time between the peak and the trough.

A severe recession is called a depression. Depressions have deeper troughs and last longer than recessions. The only depression that has happened thus far was the Great Depression, which lasted 3.5 years, beginning in 1929.

Recessions generally lead to shifts in monetary policy and government spending that lead to a recovery phase.

Stage 2: Early Cycle

Following a recession, the economy enters an expansion phase, where there tends to be a sharp recovery as growth begins to accelerate. The stock market tends to rise the most during this stage, which generally lasts about one year. Because of loose monetary policy by the central bank, interest rates are low, so businesses and consumers can borrow more money for growth and investment. GDP begins to increase.

Just as a recession is a vicious cycle, recovery is a virtuous cycle of rising income, employment, GDP, and production. And similar to the three D’s, a recovery period, which includes Stages 2-4, is measured using three P’s: how pronounced, pervasive, and persistent the expansion is.

Stage 3: Mid-Cycle

The mid-cycle phase is generally the longest phase of the business cycle, with moderate growth throughout. On average, the mid-cycle phase lasts three years. Monetary policies shift toward a neutral state: interest rates are higher, credit is strong, and companies are profitable.

Stage 4: Late Cycle

At this stage, economic activity reaches its highest point, and while growth continues, its pace decelerates. Monetary policies become tight due to rising inflation and low unemployment, making it harder for people to borrow money. The GDP rate begins to plateau or slow.

Companies may be engaging in reckless expansions, and investors are overconfident, which increases the price of assets beyond their actual value. Late cycles last a year and a half on average.

What Industries Do Well During Each Stage?

Historically different industries have prospered during each stage of the business cycle, depending on whether they are cyclical or non-cyclical stocks.

When money is tight and people are concerned about the economy, they cut back on certain purchases, such as vacations and pricey clothes. Also, when people anticipate a recession, they tend to sell stocks and move into less-risky assets, causing the market to decline.

Industries do better or worse depending on supply and demand, and the need for specific products shifts throughout the business cycle. In general, the following sectors perform well during each stage of the business cycle:

Recession

During the recession phase, the lowest point in the business cycle, economic activity is at its weakest, and unemployment is at its highest. Many industries may struggle during this phase, especially those dependent on consumer spending or business investment.

However, certain industries are able to weather the storm during a recession because they offer products and services that people need no matter how the economy is performing. These industries include healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities.

Recommended: How to Invest During a Recession

Early Cycle

During the early cycle expansion phase, when economic activity is growing and the economy is healthy, many industries tend to do well. These can include consumer-oriented sectors, such as retail and leisure, as well as industries that benefit from increased business investment, such as construction and manufacturing. Other sectors that benefit from increased borrowing due to low interest rates include financial services, real estate, and household durables.

Mid-Cycle

During the mid-cycle phase, when the economy is operating near full capacity, some industries may start to see slowing growth or declining profits. These can include industries sensitive to changes in consumer demand or highly competitive, such as technology and media. However, some industries perform well during the mid-cycle, like information technology and energy, because companies in these areas deploy capital that helps them grow.

Late Cycle

During the late cycle, economic activity slows down and the labor market shows signs of weakness. Additionally, the economy may face inflationary pressures due to the previous period of economic growth and low unemployment. While this inflationary pressure and economic slowdown negatively impact many industries, utilities and energy companies may do well during this period. Additionally, investors could research stocks that do well during volatility.

Who Should Invest With the Business Cycle?

Business cycle investing involves trying to anticipate changes in the business cycle and buying or selling assets based on the expected performance of those assets during different phases of the business cycle. For example, an investor following a business cycle investing strategy might buy stocks when the economy is expanding and sell them before the peak in anticipation of a downturn.

However, this active online investing strategy is not suited for everyone. Investing and rebalancing a portfolio with the business cycle is difficult because timing the market is easier said than none. Business cycle investing is best for investors who have the time to stay up to date with the latest economic indicators and stock market news while also having the risk tolerance to time the market.

In contrast, some investors prefer a long-term buy and hold strategy, in which they don’t try to time the market and make few changes to their portfolio. For many investors, that may actually be a wiser strategy, though it’ll depend on the individual investor’s preferences, strategy, and goals.

Pros and Cons of Business Cycle Investing

Business cycle investing involves trying to anticipate and profit from changes in the business cycle. The goal is to buy assets likely to do well during certain business cycle phases and sell them before the next phase begins.

However, investors should note that the business cycle is not always predictable, and there are no guarantees that a business cycle investing strategy will be successful. Thus, it’s good to consider the pros and cons of business cycle investing.

Pros

The advantages of using a business cycle investing approach include the following:

• The ability to potentially profit from changes in the business cycle: By anticipating and acting on changes in the business cycle, investors may profit from the upswing of a recovery or the downtrend of a recession.

• A framework for decision-making: The business cycle provides a framework for analyzing economic trends and making investment decisions. This can help investors make more informed decisions about buying or selling assets.

• Diversification: Business cycle investing can help investors diversify their portfolio by adding assets likely to do well in different phases of the business cycle.

Cons

The disadvantages of using a business cycle investing approach include the following:

• Difficulty in predicting the business cycle: The business cycle is not always predictable, and it can be difficult to anticipate changes in the economic environment. This can make it challenging for investors to implement a business cycle investing strategy successfully.

• Market volatility: Business cycle investing can involve buying and selling assets at different points in the business cycle, exposing investors to stock volatility.

• Opportunity cost: By focusing on the business cycle, investors may fail to take advantage of opportunities to invest in assets that are not correlated to the business cycle but may still provide strong returns.

The Takeaway

No business cycle is identical, but history shows there can be a rough pattern to which industries do better as the economy expands and contracts. Investors can take cues from which stage of the business cycle the economy is in order to allocate money to different sectors.

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FAQ

What is an investment cycle exactly?

An investment cycle is a pattern of investment activity that occurs over time, usually in conjunction with the business cycle. It is typically characterized by periods of rising prices followed by periods of declining prices. The length and severity of the investment cycle can vary, and various factors, including economic conditions, market trends, and investor sentiment, can influence it.

How long are investment cycles?

The length of investment cycles can vary significantly, depending on economic activity and investor sentiment. Some investment cycles may last only a few months, while others may last several years or more.

What are the 4 stages of investment cycles?

The four stages of an investment cycle are expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.

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Dec

2024

Understanding Low-Float Stocks

By Ashley Kilroy | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Table of Contents

Stock Float: Quick Recap
What Are Low-Float Stocks?
Floating Stock Example Calculation
Understanding Shares Outstanding
Benefits of Trading Low-Float Stocks
Importance of Low-Float Stocks
6 Reasons for Low-Floating Shares
Evaluating Low-Float Stocks
How to Trade Low-Float Stocks
FAQ

Low-float stocks are companies with a relatively small number of shares available for public trading. It doesn’t mean the company has very few shares in total.

A company’s float, or floating shares, are those available after subtracting closely held and restricted shares from all outstanding shares. In some cases, a company has a lower float, meaning there are relatively few shares for the public to trade.

low-float stocks are considered more volatile and have higher spreads. But a company’s float can change owing to various conditions.

Key Points

• Low-float stocks refer to shares with limited availability for public trading, resulting in increased volatility and potential price swings based on market demand changes.

• The float of a stock is calculated by subtracting closely held and restricted shares from the total number of outstanding shares, revealing the shares accessible for trading.

• Various factors contribute to a company’s low float, including control by insiders, family ownership, stock buybacks, and stock-based compensation, each affecting liquidity and volatility.

• Day traders often favor low-float stocks due to their potential for significant short-term gains, but the high volatility also presents substantial risks that require careful evaluation.

• Monitoring news catalysts and technical indicators is essential for trading low-float stocks, as these factors can lead to dramatic price movements and influence trading strategies.

Stock Float: Quick Recap

The float of a stock measures the number of shares of a particular stock. It indicates the number of shares of stock available for trading. The measure doesn’t include closely held shares, those owned by controlling investors, employees, or company owners.

Calculating floating stock requires looking at a company’s balance sheet and taking the total number of shares of a company and subtracting any restricted and closely held shares.

Stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, often use floating stock as the basis for figuring out the market cap (the total value of outstanding shares in dollars) of a company.

Recommended: Investing 101 Guide

What Are Low-Float Stocks?

A company’s float is the total number of shares outstanding, minus closely held and restricted shares.

Some larger corporations have very high floats in the billions, and investors typically consider a float of 10 to 20 million shares as a low-float. But there are companies with floats of less than one million, and you can find even lower-float stock trading on over-the-counter exchanges (OTC).

Companies with a low-float frequently have a large portion of their equity held by controlling investors such as directors and employees, which leaves only a small percentage of the stock available for public trading. That limited supply can cause dramatic price swings if demand changes quickly.

Because low-float stocks have fewer shares available, investors may have difficulty finding a buyer or seller for them. This may make the stocks more volatile, which appeals to day traders. The bid/ask spread of low-float stocks tends to be high as well.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

Floating Stock Example Calculation

If a trader looks at a company’s balance sheet, they can see how many outstanding shares the company has under the heading “Capital Stock.”

Looking at fictional Company A, the company’s balance sheet shows outstanding shares and floating stock shares:

• 50 million shares outstanding

• 45 million float shares

This is a high-float stock, with 90% of the stock available for trade. By contrast, Company B has:

• 2 million shares outstanding

• 475,000 float shares

This is a 23.75% float, and could serve as a signal for day traders to look at other factors to determine whether they want to invest in the stock.

Understanding Shares Outstanding

Another stock market term that helps explain low-float stocks is shares outstanding. Shares outstanding refers to the total number of shares issued by a company, including those that can’t be traded.

The float is the number of shares that’s the percentage of the shares outstanding available for public trade. This is known as the float percentage. Companies might have numerous shares outstanding, but only a small percentage of floating stock.

The amount of floating stock a company has typically changes over time, as companies might sell more stock to raise money, or company stakeholders might sell their holdings. If a stock goes through a stock split or reverse split, this will also increase or decrease floating shares.

Benefits of Trading Low-Float Stocks

Essentially, low-float stocks primarily benefit day traders who are interested in earning large profits in a short time.

By their nature, low-float stocks are volatile. There are relatively few low-float stocks in the marketplace, and their prices tend to go up and down easily and quickly. Moreover, every trade of a low-float stock issue can have a larger impact on the value of the stock than it would on a security with a higher float.

For example, when good news hits a security with a limited supply, it doesn’t take much for it to have a huge impact on the share price. A low-float stock can see big gains when demand skyrockets. Conversely, if bad news comes to the same security, its price can nosedive rapidly.

The dramatic volatility in investing in low-float companies, can lead to a greater level of risk. But an experienced and highly skilled day trader might be delighted to take on this volatility challenge in exchange for potential continuous gains in a short trading session.

Importance of Low-Float Stocks

If you’re interested in investing in a particular company, it’s important to understand its stock float. You don’t want to overlook this detail while performing your due diligence on an issuing company.

The size of a stock float can change over time, which would affect the stock’s liquidity and volatility. Stock buybacks, secondary share offerings, insider buying or selling shares, and stock splits (or reverse splits) can cause the number of shares outstanding to change, and thus the float.

6 Reasons for Low-Floating Shares

Low-float stocks tend to have higher spreads and higher volatility than a comparable higher-float stock. You may find it hard to enter or exit positions in stocks that have a low float. What are some specific instances that could account for low-floating shares?

1. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs)

Certain shares may be trading at a low float because the company that’s issuing the stock is part of a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). A SPAC is a corporation formed for the sole purpose of raising investment capital through an initial public offering (IPO).

Typically, experienced business executives in the same industry as the SPAC’s target acquisition become the founders of a SPAC. A SPAC could take as long as a number of years to complete. And, even when the new company does go public, there may be fewer shares available for public purchase because they’re held by founders of the SPAC or other officers and insiders close to the deal.

2. The Company Is Family Operated

Another reason for low-float shares could be that the company is family owned. In these cases, a family likely would own a significant share of the company’s shares and would influence important decisions, like electing a chairman and CEO. In particular, if a family-operated company is small to midsize, there may be few shares left for the public to buy.

In fact, family-owned or operated businesses are all around us — including well-known names like BMW, Samsung, and Wal-Mart Stores. About 35% of all companies in the S&P 500 index are family controlled, and 118 of the top family-owned companies in the world are based in the U.S., according to the 2023 Global Family Business Index.

3. Stock Buybacks

If a company buys back some of its shares, that may affect its float by reducing the number of shares available for trading; there’s even a name for it: float shrink.

Regular share buybacks, along with dividend payments, are two ways that a company may reward shareholders. Another reason for a share buyback could be for a company to gain better control of its strategic initiatives without needing to consult its shareholders.

4. Company Has Donated Shares to Its Charitable Foundation

If a company founder has donated a large percentage of its shares to an associated charitable foundation, this could result in a lower float, if the foundation has held onto the shares which are then excluded from the overall float count.

5. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

In another scenario, a company might be involved in an initial public offering (IPO), in which its shares are considered privately held until the IPO is complete. Once the new shares are made publicly available for trade, a stock could be considered low float because a high percentage of shares are still restricted for a period of time.

6. Stock-Based Compensation

Some companies have initiatives that reward their employees with company stock; either as part of an incentive program or combined with their regular pay. A company also could have an equity compensation program in place as a way of rewarding employees, executives, and directors of a company with equity in the business.

💡 Quick Tip: The best stock trading app? That’s a personal preference, of course. Generally speaking, though, a great app is one with an intuitive interface and powerful features to help make trades quickly and easily.

Evaluating Low-Float Stocks

Not every low-float stock represents a good buy, but it is a popular strategy for day traders. To evaluate a low-float stock, day traders often look at several other factors.

High Relative Volume

The relative volume shows a stock’s current volume in comparison to earlier periods in a company’s history. This is important to investors because it can affect a stock’s liquidity. If a stock has low liquidity, traders can potentially get stuck with shares they can’t sell.

They may also find themselves unable to take advantage of news catalysts with a significant buy or sell the move. If a stock’s price changes, but there isn’t a lot of trading volume, it may not be a good pick.

News Catalysts

Positive or negative news about a company frequently makes a low-float stock increase or decrease in a short amount of time.

Day traders keep a close eye on the stock market and corporate news to see which stocks likely would make moves. A news event can cause a low-float stock to move anywhere from 50% to 200% in a single day, as they are in low supply.

Float Percentage

This is the percentage of the total shares of stock available for trading. Each trader has their preferences, but most look for a percentage between 10% and 25%.

How to Trade Low-Float Stocks

When trading a low-float stock, a trader might buy and sell the same stock multiple times in a single day. Then, move on to a different low-float stock the next day in an extreme form of market timing.

Many traders will plan out their profit targets and support and resistance ahead of time and stop losses to reduce risk. As with any trade, traders can look at technical indicators like candlestick charts and moving averages to see whether a stock looks bullish or bearish.

A good strategy pays attention to technical analysis and rather than simply buying or selling based on rumors or news.

Finding low-float Stocks

Finding and evaluating stocks to trade requires some knowledge and experience. Several platforms offer the ability to trade low-float stocks. Some of these platforms allow traders to filter by criteria such as volume and float to find the best opportunities. Traders can look for stocks with a float of less than 50 million and a relatively high volume.

Penny stocks less than $5 are very popular with day traders. Traders can also look to watchlists for ideas about which low-float stocks to trade.

• Reuters’ Free Scanner: Free to register. Users can find low-float stocks by scanning with the filter “float.”

• Trade Ideas: This site has multiple low-float stocks lists for the U.S. market. It highlights stocks that are moving so that traders can capitalize on opportunities.

• Stock Screeners: There are many other stock-screening tools you can use to find low-float stocks — such as Benzinga Pro, which lets you “search and filter stocks by any attribute.”

Some Risks to Know

Every investment comes with risks, but low-float stocks present some particular challenges. Day trading is inherently very risky and can result in significant losses (as well as gains). So, other types of investments are often a better fit for those with a low appetite for risk.

Low-float stocks can have high volatility; their price can change within seconds or minutes. If an investor isn’t careful, knowledgeable, or always on top of it, this volatility could wipe out a large portion of their portfolio. Low-float stocks could also present substantial profit opportunities; traders might see gains of 50% to 200% in a single day.

Looking at both the news and technical indicators is crucial for trading success. Trading low-float stocks requires a daily look at market news, as the stocks that look like a promising trade one day may not be ideal the next.

The Takeaway

The term “low-float,” as it pertains to stocks, refers to the amount of shares available to trade in the public market after the appropriate number of shares are allocated to founders, officers of the company, and other inside investors.

It’s important for investors to be aware of the amount of a company’s low-floating stock, as it can reflect the stock’s liquidity. If a stock has relatively few available issues, it might be harder for traders to sell it.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

Is a low-float stock good?

When a company’s stock is considered low float, there are fewer shares available for public trading. That can increase volatility for some investors, while others (like day traders) may be able to leverage changes in the share price.

How important is a stock’s float?

Understanding why a company may have a higher or lower float is an important factor for investors to take into consideration, because it can reveal (or be tied to) other aspects of the company’s management or status.

Are low-float stocks good for day trading?

Low-float stocks can garner huge profits for day traders when a particular industry, sector, or company is in high demand. But when demand shifts, low-float stocks can be risky.

What’s the difference between high- and low-float stocks?

You can find a company’s float by taking the total number of shares outstanding and subtracting the number of shares that are closely held or restricted. If the remainder is a high percentage of the outstanding shares, that’s considered a high-float stock — which can indicate the stock has a certain amount of liquidity.

If the remainder is a small percentage of the outstanding shares, that indicates a low-float stock, which generally has a higher spread, lower liquidity, and may be more volatile.

About the author

Ashley Kilroy

Ashley Kilroy is a seasoned personal finance writer with 15 years of experience simplifying complex concepts for individuals seeking financial security. Her expertise has shined through in well-known publications like Rolling Stone, Forbes, SmartAsset, and Money Talks News. Read full bio.

You may also be interested in:

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Dec

2024

How To Know When to Buy a Stock

By Ashley Kilroy | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | No Comments

Table of Contents

The Best Time of Day to Buy Stocks
The Best Day of the Week to Buy Stocks
The Best Month to Buy Stocks
When Should You Buy Stocks
When Is the Worst Time to Buy Stocks?

Since investors don’t have (functional) crystal balls, figuring out how to know when to buy a stock, in an effort to time the market and generate the biggest return, is difficult. While you shouldn’t necessarily try to time the market, if you are trading and incorporating some knowledge and tactics around when to buy a stock as a part of your larger financial plan, you’ll want to do what you can to fine-tune your strategy.

Trading stocks, of course, is fairly risky, and investors will want to keep that in mind. But with some practice and knowledge, you may be able to figure out the best time to buy stocks, and other variables, to help you try to boost your portfolio.

Key Points

• Timing the stock market is difficult, but understanding when to trade stocks can help your portfolio.

• The best time of day to buy stocks is usually in the morning, shortly after the market opens.

• Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile.

• Historically, April, October, and November have been the best months to buy stocks, while September has shown the worst performance.

• Knowing when to hold or sell stocks depends on personal strategies, research, and confidence in the stock’s potential for growth.

The Best Times to Buy Stocks

As noted, it’s generally not a good idea to try and time the market. But that’s not to say that there are larger market forces at work that result in certain trends. With that in mind, there can be good times of the day, days of the week, and even months to buy stocks that could generate bigger returns – though nothing is guaranteed.

The Best Time of Day to Buy Stocks

First and foremost, remember when the stock market is open and when trading is occurring. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, two of the largest and most active stock exchanges, are open 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET, Monday through Friday.

With that, the best time of the day, in terms of price action, is usually in the morning, in the hours immediately after the market opens up until around 11:30 a.m. ET, or so. That’s generally when most trading happens, leading to the biggest price fluctuations and chances for investors to take advantage.

The Best Day of the Week to Buy Stocks

If investors are aiming to trade during times of relative volatility, then they’ll want to utilize a trading strategy that aims to crowd their activity near the beginning and end of the week. Monday is probably the best day to trade stocks, since there is likely considerable volatility pent up over the weekend.

That said, Friday can also be a good day to trade, as investors make moves to prepare their portfolios for a couple of days off. The middle of the week tends to be the least volatile.

The Best Month to Buy Stocks

best month to buy stocks

When thinking about the best months to buy stocks, examining historic performance can be helpful. Data showing average monthly returns for the S&P 500 between 1950 and 2023 shows that broadly, November, July, April, and October tend to be the best months to buy. Conversely, September and February have tended to see weaker performances than the other months.

Again, these “best times to buy stocks” in terms of times, days, and months aren’t guarantees of anything, but are merely based on historical performance. That can be good to keep in mind.

When Should You Buy Stocks

factors to consider when buying stock

There’s a difference between “can” and “should” – and investors trying to discern when they should buy stocks should really consider their personal preferences, risk tolerance, and investment strategies. The right time to buy a stock is when an investor has done their research and feels confident that a stock price will rise in the short or long term, and that they’re willing to hold onto it until it does.

It helps to be informed when considering whether to buy stocks, and one way to do that is to learn about the company itself. Interested investors can find many company’s financial reports and earnings reports from government databases or private company research reports.

While ultimately it may be a good idea to buy stocks across different industries in order to diversify, it sometimes helps to start with a business or industry one is familiar with. Knowing about the company can help put the earnings reports into context.

Understanding the value of stocks is often, if not always tied to understanding the business those stocks represent a share in. Is the company a good investment? Does it have sound financials and growth potential? Here are helpful questions to consider when contemplating buying a stock:

What is the price range at which you’re willing to buy? If an investor has a company in mind, setting a price range at which they would want to buy stock in that company may help inform their decision. One can do this through analysts’ reports and consensus price targets, which average all analyst opinions.

Does the stock appear undervalued? There are different ways to determine value. The most common valuation metric is a price-earnings ratio (or P/E), which takes the price per share and divides it by earnings per share. The lower the number, the less the value. Generally for U.S. companies, a P/E below 15 is considered a good value and a P/E over 20 is considered a bad value. You can also compare the company’s P/E to others in the industry.

Another way to look at value is a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which takes projected cash values and discounts them back to the present. This ultimately gives an investor a theoretical price target; if the actual price is below the target, then in theory, it’s undervalued and a good buy.

💡 Quick Tip: Did you know that opening a brokerage account typically doesn’t come with any setup costs? Often, the only requirement to open a brokerage account — aside from providing personal details — is making an initial deposit.

When Is the Worst Time to Buy Stocks?

Just as there are the purported best times to buy stocks, there are also the worst times to buy stocks, too. Given that investors may be looking for relatively volatile times in the market to buy stocks, relatively calm periods during the trading day may be the worst times to buy. Those hours would be during the middle of the day, perhaps from 11:30 a.m. ET until 3 p.m. ET.

In terms of days of the week? Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays may be worse than Mondays or Fridays, barring any market-moving news or other volatility-inducing events. Finally, September, February, and May tend to be the weakest-performing months for the stock market, dating back nearly a century.

How Do You Know When to Hold Stocks?

Knowing when to hold a stock often comes down to one’s investment strategy. With a passive investment approach, investors invest in various stocks with the intention of holding them for an indefinite amount of time. This is also known as a buy and hold investment strategy.

With this type of investing, investors attempt to match a market index such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So, they select stocks in that market index coinciding with the same percentages in that index.

One benefit of the buy and hold strategy is that the tax rate on long-term capital gains (from stocks that an investor has owned for more than one year) are much lower than that of short-term capital gains.

For many, if not most investors, if you’re going to buy a stock, it may be a good strategy to hold onto it for a while. When an investor buys an undervalued stock, it could take a few years for it to reach its “correct” valuation. And of course, there’s always a risk it will never reach what the investor has determined is the correct valuation.

Not everyone holds onto their stocks for a long time, but there are risks to day trading that may inspire some to become buy-and-holders.

How Do You Know When to Sell a Stock?

Just like how a decision to hold a stock largely depends on an individual investor’s specific strategy, so does the choice as to whether or not to sell.

Some investors rely on a rule of thumb that states that the stock market reaches a high point in May or June and then goes down over the summer until September or October. While that can sometimes be observed in overall market behavior — partially because traders (just like lots of people) go on vacation in the summer and partially because it’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy — it doesn’t mean an individual stock will definitely go down over the summer.

Taking this advice, however, — and other, similar types of advice – should be taken with a grain of salt. Again, the choice of whether to sell a stock is up to you, and the research you’ve put into making the decision.

Recommended: When to Sell Stock

The Takeaway

Knowing when to buy, sell, and hold stocks can be less confusing when an investor does the research into company health, overall market conditions, and their own financial needs as relates to personal short-term and long-term goals.

One of the easiest ways to buy and sell stocks or manage any investment portfolio is to open an online taxable brokerage account. This is often appealing to investors who want to take more of an active investing approach and buy and sell stocks. Investors would typically pay fees based on the account and the number of trades they make.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

Is it best to buy stocks when they are down?

The best time to buy a stock is when an investor has done their research and due diligence, and decided that the investment fits their overall strategy. With that in mind, buying a stock when it is down may be a good idea – and better than buying a stock when it is high. But there are always risks to take into consideration.

Should I buy stocks at night?

Investors can engage in after-hours trading, but there are unique risks to doing so, and orders won’t execute until the market opens. Interested investors may want to try after-hours trading to get a feel for it before fully incorporating it into their strategy.

What are the worst months for the stock market?

Based on past performance, the worst months for the stock market tend to be in the early fall and summer. September is usually the worst, but October, June, and August can be bad as well.

About the author

Ashley Kilroy

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Dec

2024

Is a Reverse Stock Split Good or Bad?

By Rebecca Lake | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

A stock split allows companies to increase the number of shares offered to investors, without changing shareholder equity. Rather than issuing new shares, companies may split stock to reduce prices. A reverse stock split can be used to condense and combine stock shares. This type of stock split is often done to increase share prices.

While a reverse stock split can improve a stock’s price in the near term, it could be a sign that a company is struggling financially. Large fluctuations in stock pricing associated with a reverse stock split could also cause investors to lose money. For investors who are concerned about managing risk inside their investment portfolio, it’s important to understand how a reverse stock split works, along with the pros and cons.

Key Points

• A reverse stock split reduces the number of shares on the market and can be used to boost share prices in the short-term.

• Companies may execute a reverse stock split to attract new investors, or meet minimum bid price requirements.

• Investors don’t usually lose money on a stock split, but the value of their shares and dividend payments may change.

• Whether a reverse stock split is good or bad depends on the company’s financial situation and goals.

• A reverse stock split may create opportunities for growth or result in losses if the new price doesn’t hold.

What Is a Reverse Stock Split?

A stock split increases the number of shares available to trade without affecting an investor’s equity stake in those shares. For example, if you own 100 shares of XYZ stock and the company initiates a two-for-one split, you’d own 200 shares of stock once it’s completed. At the same time, the stock’s price would be cut in half. So if your shares were worth $100 before, they’d be worth $50 each afterward.

A reverse stock split moves in the opposite direction. Companies can use different ratios for executing reverse stock splits. For example, a company could decide to initiate a reverse split that converts every 10 shares of stock into a single share. So if you owned 100 shares before the reverse split, you’d own 10 shares afterward.

The stock’s price would also change proportionately. So if each share of stock was valued at $10 before the split, those shares would be worth $100 afterward. Your overall investment would still be valued at $1,000; the only thing that changes is the number of shares you own.

Why Do Companies Execute Reverse Stock Splits?

There are different reasons why a company may choose to execute a reverse stock split. Most often, it’s used as a tool for increasing the share prices of stock.

Raising stock prices is a tactic that can be used to attract new investors if the company believes the current trading price is too low. A higher share price could send a signal to the market that the company is worth investing in. Companies may also choose to reverse split stocks to meet minimum bid price requirements in order to stay listed on a major stock exchange.

Reverse stock splits don’t affect a company’s market capitalization, which represents the total number of a company’s outstanding shares multiplied by its current market price per share. But by consolidating existing shares into fewer shares, those shares can become more valuable.

Do Investors Lose Money on a Stock Split?

Investors don’t usually lose money on a stock split. Avoiding losses is part of investing strategically, and it makes sense if investors wonder how a forward stock split or a reverse stock split could impact them financially.

A stock split itself doesn’t cause an investor to lose money, because the total value of their investment doesn’t change. What changes is the number of shares they own and the value of each of those shares.

For example, if you have $1,000 invested before a forward stock split or a reverse stock split, you would still have $1,000 afterward. But depending on which way the stock split moves, you may own more or fewer shares and the price of those shares would change correspondingly.

If you own a stock that pays stock dividends, those dividend payments would also adjust accordingly. For instance, in a forward two-for-one split of a stock that’s currently paying $2 per share in dividends, the new payout would be $1 per share. If you own a stock that pays $1 per share in dividends, then undergoes a reverse stock split that combines five shares into one, your new dividend payout would be $5 per share.

Are Reverse Stock Splits Good or Bad?

Whether a reverse stock split is good or bad can depend on why the company chose to initiate it and the impacts it has on the company’s overall financial situation.

At first glance, a reverse stock split can seem like a red flag. If a company is trying to boost its share price to try and attract new investors, that could be a sign that it’s desperate for cash. But there are other indicators that a company is struggling financially. A poor earnings call or report, or a diminishing dividend could also be clues that a company is underperforming.

In terms of outcomes, there are two broad paths that can open up following a reverse stock split.

A Reverse Stock Split Could Create Opportunities

One potential path creates new opportunities for the company to grow and strengthen financially, but this is usually dependent on taking other measures. For example, if a company is also taking steps to reduce its debt load or improve earnings, then a reverse stock split could yield long-term benefits with regard to pricing.

A Reverse Stock Split Could Result in Losses

On the other hand, a reverse stock split could result in losses to investors if the new price doesn’t stick. If stock prices fall after a reverse stock split, that means an investor’s new combined shares become less valuable. This scenario may be likely if the company isn’t making other efforts to improve its financial situation, or if the efforts they are making fail.

Should I Sell Before a Stock Split?

There are many factors that go into deciding when to sell a stock. Whether it makes sense to sell before a stock split or after can depend on what other signs the company is giving off with regard to its financial health and how an investor expects it to perform after the split.

Investors who have shares in a company that has a strong track record overall may choose to remain invested. Even though a split may result in a lower share price in the near term, their investments could grow in value if the price continues to climb after the split.

With a reverse stock split, a decision to sell (or not sell) may hinge on why the company is executing the split. If a reverse stock split is being done to raise prices and attract new investors, it’s important to consider what the company’s goals are for doing so.

Taking a look at the company’s finances and comparing things like price to earnings (P/E) ratio, earnings per share (EPS) and other key ratios that may be gleaned by reading the company’s earnings report, can give you a better idea of which direction things may be headed.

The Takeaway

A reverse stock split involves a company reducing the overall number of shares on the market, likely in an effort to boost share prices. A reverse stock split itself shouldn’t have an immediate or outsized impact on an investor — their overall investment value remains the same, even as stocks are consolidated at a higher price. But the reasons behind the reverse stock split are worth investigating, and the split itself has the potential to drive stock prices down.

Stock splits are something investors may encounter from time to time. Understanding what the implications of a forward or reverse stock split are and what they can tell you about a company can help an investor develop a strategy for managing them.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

About the author

Rebecca Lake

Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.

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Dec

2024

Setting Up a Retirement Account for Your Child

By Rebecca Lake | invest, Investing, Preparing for Retirement | Comments Off

Opening a tax-advantaged individual retirement account (IRA) for minors becomes possible once they start earning income. Even babysitting or lawn-mowing money counts.

A custodial IRA offers certain advantages: It can jump start a child’s interest in investing, and possibly help build their future nest egg. But there are annual contribution limits and other potential drawbacks to consider, such as the child’s eligibility for college financial aid.

🛈 Currently, SoFi does not offer custodial banking or investment products.

How to Open a Retirement Account for Your Child

Opening a retirement fund for a child means opening a custodial IRA. Generally speaking, a custodial account is one that’s owned by an adult — a parent, grandparent, or legal guardian — on behalf of a minor.

The adult does the investment planning for their child, and manages the money in the account until the child reaches the age of majority (it varies by state). At that point, all the money in the account belongs to the child.

Steps to Opening a Retirement Account for a Child

Here’s how opening a retirement account for minors typically works.

Step 1: Choose a Brokerage

Custodial IRAs are offered by many brokerages, so you’ll need to choose where to open yours. This could be the brokerage where you currently have your investment accounts or a different one.

When deciding on a custodial IRA, consider the range of investments offered, the fees you’re likely to pay, and how easy it is overall to open and manage new accounts. For example, some brokerages let you set up an IRA for a child online, while others require you to fill out and mail in the necessary paperwork.

Step 2: Complete the Application

On the application for a custodial IRA, the brokerage will typically ask for specific information, including:

• Contact information (e.g., your phone number, email address, and mailing address)

• Personal information about yourself, including your name, date of birth, and Social Security number

• Personal information about your minor child, including their name, date of birth, and Social Security number

• Employment information, if applicable

You’ll also need to share routing information and the account number for the bank account you plan to use to make contributions. If you’re moving money from another brokerage firm, you’ll be asked to provide the account number and type.

Step 3: Choose an IRA Type

Should you choose a traditional or a Roth IRA for your child? Both offer tax benefits and both have the same annual contribution limits for kids. For minors, a Roth IRA typically works better. One reason is that the child’s tax rate is typically quite low, and likely much lower than their tax rate will be upon retirement.

Step 4: Fund the Account and Choose Investments

Once you’ve opened a retirement account for a child, you can fund the account using your linked bank account and then make your investment selections. As the custodian, you choose how the money in the IRA is invested, though you might want to talk to your kids first to get their feedback. Generally, custodial IRAs can offer the same investment selections as IRAs for adults, which can mean stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bonds and other securities.

Different Types of IRAs for Children

As mentioned earlier, there are two main types of IRAs you can open for a minor child: traditional and Roth. The main difference lies in their tax treatment. The IRS regulates contributions to and withdrawals from each type of IRA.

Traditional IRA

A traditional IRA is funded with pre-tax dollars. The IRS allows eligible taxpayers to claim a deduction for contributions. When you take money out in retirement, you pay taxes on the earnings.

Traditional IRAs can make sense for people who can benefit from tax-deductible contributions. That might be less valuable to your child than the tax benefits that a Roth IRA could yield.

Roth IRA

You start a Roth IRA using after-tax dollars, so you get no tax deductions on your contributions. But they can offer something else: tax-free qualified distributions. This means no matter what tax bracket your child is in when they retire, they can withdraw their money from a Roth IRA tax-free.

Roth IRA withdrawal rules also allow contributions to be withdrawn at any time, tax- and penalty-free.

Funding a Child’s Retirement Account

Both traditional and Roth IRAs have annual contribution limits, and you have to contribute earned income. For 2023, the IRA contribution limit is $6,500. If you’re 50 or older, you can add another $1,000 to help you catch up for retirement.

The same rules apply to custodial IRAs. In 2023, kids can contribute an amount equal to their earnings for the year or the $6,500 limit, whichever is lower. So if your child makes $5,000 by babysitting and mowing lawns, the most they’d be able to add to their IRA is $5,000.

Again, it’s important to remember that kids need to have income (specifically, taxable compensation) to open and contribute to a traditional or Roth IRA. According to the IRS, that includes:

• Wages

• Salaries

• Commissions

• Tips

• Bonuses

• Net income from self-employment

Investment income, including interest and dividend income, doesn’t count as income that can be contributed to the child’s IRA, under IRS guidelines.

Can a Parent Contribute to a Child’s IRA?

A parent can contribute to a child’s IRA only if that child has earned income of their own for the year.

Again, contributions to a child’s IRA must not exceed their allowed limit for the year. Going back to the previous example, in which your child earned $5,000, they could technically put all of that money into their IRA. Or you could offer to split the difference and let them put in $2,500 while contributing the remaining $2,500 yourself.

Keeping careful records of your child’s earnings for the year can help you avoid contributing too much to their IRA. Also, offering to put in an equivalent amount (without breaching the limit) can be a good motivator for kids to invest in their IRA.

Benefits of a Child Opening a Retirement Account

Opening up a Roth IRA for a child can benefit them in several ways.

• Kids can get an early taste of what it means to invest money rather than saving it. The IRA can be a teaching tool to help a child learn how the market works and the importance of setting long-term financial goals.

• Kids who start saving for retirement at an early age have the ability to take full advantage of the power of compounding interest. A child who contributes $5,000 each year starting at age 14 and earns a 7% annual return, for example, could have $2.3 million saved for retirement by age 65. Running the numbers using a Roth IRA calculator can give you an idea of how much of a head start on growing wealth you might be able to give your child by opening a minor IRA.

• The money in a Roth IRA for a child is tax-free when they take qualified distributions. This can result in substantial tax savings if they’re in a higher tax bracket when they retire.

Cons of a Child Opening a Retirement Account

Before you open a traditional or Roth IRA for a child, there are some drawbacks to consider.

• While contributing to a Roth IRA may offer some long-term benefits, there are no guarantees, and the money is then locked up until your child turns 59 ½ (although early withdrawals are possible, and might incur a penalty).

• A Roth IRA might affect your college-bound child’s financial aid eligibility. Just having money in a Roth IRA won’t cause any snags if your child is applying for federal student aid. But if they withdraw contributions from their Roth IRA for any reason — including paying for college expenses — that money is counted as income, which may affect eligibility for need-based aid.

• Investments within a custodial IRA entail some level of risk, as with all investments.

Pros	Cons
An IRA can be a good way to teach kids about investing and the stock market.	Funds in an IRA are typically restricted (although Roth contributions can be withdrawn at any time, penalty-free).
Starting an IRA for a child at a young age means they have more time to benefit from compounding interest.	Withdrawal of contributions from a Roth IRA could affect a child’s financial aid eligibility.
Qualified distributions are tax-free in retirement.	Investments within a custodial IRA entail some level of risk.

The Takeaway

IRAs can be a valuable addition to a retirement savings strategy if you’re interested in investment planning for children or for yourself. If you haven’t started saving for the future yet or your child is starting to earn income of their own, there’s no time like the present to consider opening an IRA.

FAQ

How do I set up a retirement account for a minor?

To get started, find out which brokerages allow you to open custodial IRAs for minor children. Then you need to choose a brokerage and IRA type, fill out the appropriate paperwork, and make a deposit or transfer to fund the IRA.

How do I give my kids an IRA?

You can open an IRA for your child once they have earned income of their own. This would be a custodial account: You own it until the child reaches adulthood, at which point it belongs to them. The other way to give an IRA to your kids is to name them as your IRA beneficiary when you pass away. If the child is a minor when they inherit the IRA, they would need a custodian to manage it for them.

When can I start a 401(k) for my child?

You can’t start a 401(k) for a child, unless you run a business that offers a 401(k) to its employees and your child works for you. You can, however, open an IRA for a minor child who has earned income, and make contributions to it on their behalf, as long as the total contributions don’t surpass the amount earned by the child that year.

About the author

Rebecca Lake

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What Is a Business Cycle?

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Stages of the Business Life Cycle

Stage 1: Recession

Stage 2: Early Cycle

Stage 3: Mid-Cycle

Stage 4: Late Cycle

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Recession

Early Cycle

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The Takeaway

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Understanding Shares Outstanding

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Importance of Low-Float Stocks

6 Reasons for Low-Floating Shares

1. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs)

2. The Company Is Family Operated

3. Stock Buybacks

4. Company Has Donated Shares to Its Charitable Foundation

5. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

6. Stock-Based Compensation

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When Is the Worst Time to Buy Stocks?

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The Takeaway

FAQ

Is it best to buy stocks when they are down?

Should I buy stocks at night?

What are the worst months for the stock market?

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Why Do Companies Execute Reverse Stock Splits?

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