Paying down debt can be an important financial priority, but should you use your savings in order to do so? While it can be tempting to throw your full efforts into paying off debt, maintaining a healthy savings account for emergencies and saving for retirement are also important financial goals.
Continue reading for more information on why it may not always make sense to use savings to pay off debt and ideas and strategies to help you expedite your debt repayment without sacrificing your savings account.
Emptying your savings account to pay off debt could cause you to rely on credit cards to cover necessary expenses, which has the potential to create a cycle of debt. Think of it this way — it can be much harder to get yourself out of debt if you keep using credit cards to cover unexpected costs.
Consider creating a plan to pay off high-interest debt while maintaining or building your emergency fund. This way, you’ll be better prepared to deal with unexpected expenses — like a trip to the emergency room.
How to Start Paying Off Debt Without Dipping Into Your Savings
First off, if you do not have an established emergency fund, consider crafting a budget that will allow you to build one while you simultaneously focus on paying down debt. The exact size of your emergency fund will depend on your personal expenses and income. A general rule of thumb suggests saving between three and six months worth of living expenses in an emergency savings account. Having this available to you can help you avoid taking on additional debt if you encounter unforeseen expenses.
Make a Budget
Now’s a good time to update or make a budget from scratch. Understanding your spending vs. income is essential to help you pay off your debt and avoid going into further debt. You’ll want to review all of your expenses and sources of income and figure out how to allocate your income across debt payments, while still allowing you to save for your future.
Establish a Debt Payoff Strategy
To start, you’ll need to review each of your debts, making note of the amount owed and interest rates. This is important to create a full picture for how much you owe. Next, you’ll need to pick a debt pay-off strategy that will work for you. Here’s a look at some popular debt-reduction plans.
• The snowball method: With this approach, you list debts from smallest balance to largest — ignoring the interest rates. You then put extra money towards the debt with the smallest balance, while making minimum payments on all the other debts. When that debt is paid off, you move to the next largest debt, and so on until all debts are paid off. With this method, early wins can help keep you motivated to continue tackling your debt.
• The avalanche method: Here, you’ll list your debts in order of interest rate, from highest to lowest. You then put extra money towards the debt with the highest interest rate, while paying the minimum on the rest. When that debt is paid off, you move on to the debt with the next-highest rate, and so on. This strategy helps minimize the amount of interest you pay, which can help you save money in the long term.
• The fireball method: With this hybrid strategy, you categorize all debt into either “good” or “bad” debt. “Good” debt is debt that has the potential to increase your net worth, such as student loans, business loans, or mortgages. “Bad” debt is generally high-interest debt incurred for a depreciating asset, like credit card debt and car loans. Next, you’ll list bad debts from smallest to largest based on balance. You then funnel extra money to the smallest of the bad debts, while making minimum payments on the others. When that balance is paid off, you go on to the next-smallest debt on the bad-debt list, and so on. Once all the bad debt is paid off, you can simply keep paying off good debt on the normal schedule. You then put money you were paying on your bad debt towards savings.
Different people may prefer one strategy over another, the key is to select something that works best with your debts, income, and financial personality.
Consider Debt Consolidation
If you have debt with a variety of lenders, one option is to consider consolidating your debt with a personal loan. Instead of making multiple payments across lenders, you’ll instead have just one payment for your personal loan. Consolidating credit card debt is a common use for a personal loan because personal loans typically have lower interest rates than credit cards. Using a personal loan to pay off your credit card balances not only streamlines repayment but can potentially help you save on interest and pay off your debt faster.
Most personal loans are unsecured (no collateral required), which means you’ll qualify for the loan solely based on your creditworthiness. Personal loans for debt consolidation typically have fixed interest rates, so your payments remain the same for the term of the loan. To find the best personal loan for you, it’s a good idea to shop around and review the options available at a few different lenders, including banks, credit unions, and online lenders.
Reducing your spending can make more room in your budget for debt payments. Making overpayments can help speed up debt payoff, but it can be challenging to amend your spending habits. To lower your spending, you’ll want to take an honest look at your current expenses and spending habits.
You can start by reviewing your credit card and bank statements to see where your money is going. Next, divide your spending into “needs” vs. “wants” and look for places where you can cut back in the “wants” category. For example, you might decide to cook dinner a few more times a week and get less takeout, cancel a streaming service you rarely watch, and/or quit the gym and start working out at home
You may also be able to reduce some of your so-called “fixed” expenses like your cell phone and internet service by shopping around for a more competitive offer or switching to a less expensive plan.
If you’ve already got a tight budget, the alternative is to increase your revenue stream. Consider a side hustle to boost your income and funnel that additional money toward debt payments. You may even be able to find a side gig that allows you to make money from home.
Paying Off Debt the Smart Way
It can be tempting to throw your savings at debt to avoid racking up expensive interest charges. But draining your savings account — or failing to save at all — in favor of debt payoff might not be a smart strategy.
With little or no savings, you’ll be less prepared for any emergency expenses in the future, which could lead to even more debt. Consider building your savings while paying off debt by creating a budget, cutting your expenses or boosting your income, and finding (and sticking to) a debt repayment strategy.
If you have high-interest credit card debt, you might consider using a personal loan to consolidate your debt. If the loan has a lower interest rate than you’re paying on your credit card balances, doing this could potentially help you save money and pay off your debt faster.
With low fixed interest rates on loans of $5K to $100K, a SoFi personal loan for credit card debt can substantially decrease your monthly bills.
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When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; expected rate of return is calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.
Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.
Key Points
• The expected rate of return is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment based on historical rates of return and the probability of different outcomes.
• The formula for calculating the expected rate of return involves multiplying the potential returns by their probabilities and summing them.
• Historical data can be used to estimate the probability of different returns, but past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
• The expected rate of return does not consider the risk involved in an investment and should be used in conjunction with other factors when making investment decisions.
What Is the Expected Rate of Return?
The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.
Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.
This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.
However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.
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How To Calculate Expected Return
To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.
The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:
In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.
For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)
The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:
Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)
Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%
Expected Return = 12%
What Is Rate of Return?
The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.
A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).
Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100
Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.
In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10
A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.
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Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return
How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data
To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:
Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ
Year
Return
2011
16%
2012
22%
2013
1%
2014
-4%
2015
8%
2016
-11%
2017
31%
2018
7%
2019
13%
2020
22%
For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).
Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.
The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:
Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)
Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%
Expected return = 10%
Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.
However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.
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How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns
When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.
Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC
Scenario
Return
Probability
Outcome (Return * Probability)
1
14%
30%
4.2%
2
2%
10%
0.2%
3
22%
30%
6.6%
4
-18%
10%
-1.8%
5
-21%
10%
-2.1%
Total
100%
7.1%
Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.
Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel
Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel (or another spreadsheet software):
1. In the first row, enter column labels:
• A1: Investment
• B1: Gain A
• C1: Probability of Gain A
• D1: Gain B
• E1: Probability of Gain B
• F1: Expected Rate of Return
2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2
• Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%
3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)
4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2
If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.
If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.
Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula
Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.
Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.
In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.
Standard Deviation
To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.
Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.
Year
Annual Return of Investment A
Annual Return of Investment B
2011
16%
8%
2012
22%
4%
2013
1%
3%
2014
-6%
0%
2015
8%
6%
2016
-11%
-2%
2017
31%
9%
2018
7%
5%
2019
13%
15%
2020
22%
14%
Average Annual Return
10%
6%
Standard Deviation
13%
5%
Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.
All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.
Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes different types of bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.
In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.
Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return
Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.
What Is the Dividend Discount Model?
Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.
The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:
So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:
RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5
RRR = .10 + .05
RRR = .15, or 15%
What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?
The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.
In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.
The formula is:
RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)
For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:
RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)
RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)
RRR = .01 + .06
RRR = .07, or 7%
The Takeaway
There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.
There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.
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FAQ
How do you find the expected rate of return?
An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.
How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?
The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.
What is a good rate of return?
A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.
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A term deposit, also known as a certificate of deposit (CD) or time deposit, is a low-risk, interest-bearing savings account. In most cases, term deposit holders place their funds into an account with a bank or financial institution and agree not to withdraw the funds until the maturity date (the end of the term). The funds can earn interest calculated based on the amount deposited and the term.
This guide explains what a term deposit is in more detail, including the pros and cons of term accounts.
What Is a Term Deposit or Time Deposit?
Time deposit, term deposit, or certificate of deposit (CD) are all words that refer to a particular kind of deposit account. It’s an amount of money paid into a savings account with a bank or other financial institution. The principal can earn interest over a period that can vary from a month to years. There is usually a minimum amount for the deposit, and the earned interest and principal are paid when the term ends.
One factor to consider is that the account holder usually agrees not to withdraw the funds before the term is over. However, if they do, the bank will likely charge a penalty. Yes, that’s a downside, but consider the overall picture: Term deposits typically offer higher interest rates than other savings accounts where the account holder can withdraw money at any time without penalties.
Compared to stocks and other alternative investments, term deposits are considered low-risk (they’re typically insured by the FDIC or NCUA) for up to $250,000 per account holder, per account ownership category (say, single, joint, or trust), per insured institution. For these reasons, the returns tend to be conservative vs. higher risk ways to grow your funds.
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How Does a Bank Use Term Deposits?
Banks and financial institutions can make money through financing. For example, they likely earn a profit by issuing home, car, and personal loans and charging interest on those financial products. Thus, banks are often in need of capital to fund the loans. Term deposits can provide locked-in capital for lending institutions.
Here’s how many bank accounts work:
• When a customer places funds in a term deposit, it’s similar to a loan to the bank. The bank will hold the funds for a set time and can use them to invest elsewhere to make a return.
• Say the bank gives the initial depositor a return of 2.00% for the use of funds in a term deposit. The bank can then use the money on deposit for a loan to a customer, charging a 6.00% interest rate for a net margin of 4.00%. Term deposits can help keep their financial operation running.
Banks want to maximize their net interest margin (net return) by offering lower interest for term deposits and charging high interest rates for loans. However, borrowers may choose a lender with the lowest interest rate, while CD account holders probably seek the highest rate of return. This dynamic keeps banks competitive.
Term deposits and saving accounts in general tend to be popular when interest rates are high. That’s because account holders can earn a high return just by stashing their money with a financial institution. When market interest rates are low, though, people are more inclined to borrow money and spend on items like homes and cars. They may know they’ll pay less interest on loans, keeping their monthly costs in check. This can stimulate the economy.
When interest rates are low (as checking account interest rates typically are), the demand for term deposits usually decreases because there are alternative investments that pay a higher return. For example, stocks, real estate, or precious metals might seem more appealing, although these are also higher risk.
The interest rate paid on a term deposit usually depends on the amount deposited and the time until maturity. A larger deposit may earn higher interest, and a deposit for a longer period of time (says, a few years vs. a few months) may also reap higher rewards.
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Types of Term Deposits
There are two main types of term deposits: fixed deposits and recurring deposits. Here’s a closer look.
Fixed Deposits
Fixed deposits are a one-time deposit into a savings account. The funds cannot be accessed until the maturity date, and interest is paid only on maturity.
Recurring Deposits
With a recurring deposit, the account holder deposits a set amount in regular intervals until the maturity date. For example, the account holder might deposit $100 monthly for five months. Each deposit will earn less interest than the previous installment because the bank holds it for a shorter period.
In addition to these two types, you may see banks promoting different kinds of CDs, whether they vary by term length or by features (such as a penalty-free CD, meaning you aren’t charged if you withdraw funds early).
Opening a Term Deposit
To open a term deposit account, search online for the best interest rates, keeping in mind how much you want to deposit, how often, and for how long. Most banks will ask you to fill in an online application. Make sure you read and agree to the terms of the agreement. For example, check the penalties that apply if you decide to withdraw your funds early as well as the minimum amount required to earn a certain interest rate.
Closing a Term Deposit
A term deposit may close for two reasons — either the account reaches maturity or the account holder decides to end the term early. Each bank or financial institution will have different policies regarding the penalties imposed for breaking a term deposit. Read the fine print or ask a bank representative for full details.
When time deposit accounts mature, some banks automatically renew them (you may hear this worded as “rolled over” into a new account) at the current interest rate. It would be your choice to let that move ahead or indicate to the bank that you prefer to withdraw your money.
If you want to close a term deposit before the maturity date, contact your bank, and find out what you need to do and the penalties. The penalty will depend on the amount saved, the interest rate, and the term. The fee may involve the loss of some or all of interest earned. In very rare cases, your CD could lose value in this way.
Term Deposits and Inflation
Term deposits may not keep up with inflation. That is, if you lock into an account and interest rates rise over time, your money won’t earn more. You will likely still earn the same amount promised when you funded the account. Also, once tax is deducted from the interest income, returns on a fixed deposit may fall below the rate of inflation. So, while term deposits are safe investments, the interest earned can wind up being negligible. You might investigate whether high-yield accounts or stocks, for instance, are a better option.
Term Deposit Pros
What are the advantages of a term deposit versus regular high-yield savings account and other investments? Here are some important benefits:
• Term deposit accounts are low-risk.
• CDs or time deposits usually pay a fixed rate of return higher than regular savings accounts.
• The funds in a CD or deposit account are typically FDIC-insured.
• Opening several accounts with different maturity dates can allow the account holder to withdraw funds at intervals over time, accessing money without paying any penalties. This system is called laddering.
• Minimum deposit amounts are often low.
Term Deposit Cons
There are a few important disadvantages of term deposit accounts to note, including:
• Term deposits can offer lower returns than other, riskier investments.
• Term deposits and CDs usually have fixed interest rates that do not keep up with inflation.
• Account holders likely do not have access to funds for the length of the term.
• Account holders will usually pay a penalty to access funds before the maturity date.
• A term deposit could be locked in at a low interest rate at a time when interest rates are rising.
Examples of Bank Term Deposits
Here’s an example of how time deposits can shape up. Currently, Bank of America offers a Featured CD account: A 13-month Featured CD with a deposit of more than $1,000 but less than $10,000 pays 4.75% APY.
At Chase, a 9-month CD with a deposit of more than $1,000 but less than $10,000 pays 4.25% APY. If you have $100,000 or more to deposit, the APY rises to 4.75%.
Term deposits, time deposits, or CDs are conservative ways to save. Account holders place a minimum amount of money into a bank account for a set term at a fixed interest rate. The principal and interest earned can be withdrawn at maturity or rolled over into another account. If funds are withdrawn early, however, a penalty will likely be assessed.
While these accounts typically have a low interest rate, they may earn more than standard bank accounts. What’s more, their low-risk status can help some people reach their financial goals.
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FAQ
Can you lose money in a term deposit?
Most term deposits or CDs are FDIC-insured, which means your money is safe should the bank fail. However, if you withdraw funds early, you may have to pay a penalty. In a worst-case scenario, this could mean that you receive less money than you originally invested.
Are term deposits and fixed deposits the same?
There is usually no difference between a term deposit and a fixed deposit. They both describe low-risk, interest-bearing savings accounts with maturity dates.
Do you pay tax on term deposits?
With the exception of CDs put in an IRA, any earnings on term deposits or CDs are usually subject to federal and state income taxes. The percentage depends on your overall income and tax bracket. If penalties are paid due to early withdrawal of funds, these can probably be deducted from taxes if the CD or term deposit was purchased through a tax-advantaged individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k).
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A down stock market could create an opportunity for investors to “buy the dip,” which, in simple terms, this strategy involves making an investment when stock prices are lower than they were at a previous time. The price has “dipped,” in other words.
Buying the dip is a way to capitalize on bargain pricing and potentially benefit from price increases down the line. But like any other investing strategy, buying the dip involves some risk — as it’s often a matter of market timing. Knowing when to buy the dip (or when not to) matters for building a solid portfolio while managing risk.
What Does It Mean to Buy the Dip?
As noted, to buy the dip means to invest when the stock market is down, anticipating that values will go back up. A dip occurs when stock prices drop below where they’ve previously been trading, but there’s an indication or expectation that they’ll begin to rise again at some point. This second part is crucial; if there’s no expectation that the stock’s price will bounce back down the line then there’s little incentive to buy in.
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Why Do Stock Dips Happen?
Stock market dips can happen for various reasons, including a macroeconomic downturn, unexpected geopolitical events, or general stock market volatility that causes stock prices to tumble temporarily on a broad scale.
For example, in early 2022, the stock market fell from all-time highs due to several developments, like high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and the economic fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, the S&P 500 Index fell nearly 20% from early January 2022 through mid-May, 2022, flirting with bear market territory.
Stock pricing dips can also be connected directly to a particular company rather than overall market trends. If a company announces a merger or posts a quarterly earnings report that falls below expectations, those could trigger a short-term drop in its share price.
What’s the Benefit of Buying the Dip?
Many investors buy the dip because it may help increase their returns. But again, it’s not without risks.
Buying the dip is, effectively, a form of buying low and selling high – if, that is, everything shakes out in the investor’s favor. When you buy into a stock below its normal price, there is a potential – but not a guarantee – to reap significant profits by selling it later if prices rebound. It’s really as simple as that.
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Example of Buying the Dip
A hypothetical example of buying the dip could play out like this: Company A releases a quarterly earnings report that does not live up to expectations. As a result, its share price falls 5% on the day that report is released. But some investors have a hunch that Company A’s stock price will increase in the coming days, and buy shares at a reduced price.
Low and behold, share prices do rebound, increasing 10% over the next few days. Investors who bought at the dip sell, and reap a return.
As for a real-world example, the market experienced a larger dip and recovery during the spring of 2020 connected to economic fears surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. The S&P 500 Index declined about 34% in a little over a month, from February 19, 2020, to Mar. 23, 2020. The index then experienced a gradual rise, recouping its losses by August 2020 and increasing 114% through January 2022 from the March 2020 low.
If an investor bought at the lower end of the stock market crash, they would have seen substantial gains in the subsequent rally.
On an individual stock level, and as another hypothetical, say you’ve been tracking a stock that’s been trading at $50 a share. Then the company’s CEO abruptly announces they’re resigning — which sends the stock price tumbling to $30 per share as overall investor confidence wavers. So, you decide to buy 100 shares at the $30 price.
Six months later, a new CEO has been installed who’s managed to slash costs while boosting profits. Now that same stock is trading at $70 per share. Because you bought the dip when prices were low, you now stand to pick up a profit of $40 per share if you sell. The potential to earn big gains is what makes buying the dip a popular investment strategy for some people.
Risks of Buying the Dip
For any investor, it’s important to understand what kind of risk you’re taking when buying the dip. Timing the market is something even the most advanced investors may struggle with — as it’s impossible to perfectly predict which way stocks will move on any given day. Understanding technical indicators and what they can tell you about the market may help, but it isn’t foolproof.
For these reasons, knowing when to buy the dip is an inexact science. If you buy into a stock low and then are able to sell it high later, then your play has paid off. On the other hand, you could lose money if you mistime the dip or you mistake a stock that’s in freefall for one that’s experiencing a dip.
In the former scenario, it’s possible that a stock’s price could drop even further before it starts to rebound. If you buy in before the dip hits bottom, that can shrink the amount of profits you’re able to realize when you sell.
In the latter case, you may think a stock has the potential to recover but be disappointed when it doesn’t. You’ve purchased the stock at a bargain but the profit you’re able to walk away with, if anything, may be much smaller than you anticipated.
How to Manage Risk When Buying the Dip
For investors who are interested in buying the dip, there are a few things to keep in mind that may help with managing risk.
Understand Market Volatility
First, it’s important to understand how market volatility may impact some sectors or industries over others.
For example, take consumer staples versus consumer discretionary. Staples represent the things most people spend money on to maintain a basic standard of living, like food or personal hygiene products. Consumer discretionary refers to the “wants” people spend money on, like furniture or electronics.
In the event of a recession, people spend more on staples than discretionary expenses — so consumer staples stocks tend to fare better. But that may create a buying opportunity for discretionary stocks if they’ve taken a hit. That’s because as a recession begins to give way to a new cycle of economic growth, those stocks may start to pick back up again.
Consider the Reason for the Dip
Next, consider the reasons behind a dip and a company’s fundamentals. If you’ve got your eye on a particular stock and you notice the price is beginning to slide, ask yourself why that may be happening. When it’s specific to the company, rather than something general happening across the market, it’s important to analyze the stock and try to understand the underlying reasons for the dip — as well as how likely the stock’s price is to make a comeback later.
Buy the Dip vs Dollar-Cost Averaging
Buying the dip is more of a hands-on, active trading strategy, since it requires an investor to actively monitor the markets and read stock charts to evaluate when to buy the dip or when to sell. If an investor prefers to take a more passive approach or has a lower tolerance for risk, they might consider dollar-cost averaging instead.
Dollar-cost averaging is generally an investing rule worth keeping in mind. With dollar-cost averaging, an individual continues making new investments on a regular basis, regardless of what’s happening with stock prices. The idea here is that by investing consistently over time, one can generate returns in a way that smooths out the ups and downs of the market.
Example of Dollar-Cost Averaging
For example, you might invest $200 every month into an index mutual fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500. As time goes by and the S&P experiences good years and bad years, you keep investing that same $200 a month into the fund.
You’ll buy shares during the dips and during the high points as well but you don’t have to actively track what’s happening with stock prices. This may be a preferable strategy if you lean toward a buy and hold investing approach versus active trading or you’re a investing beginner learning the basics.
The Takeaway
Buying the dip refers to purchasing shares at a price that is lower than a previous price, with the anticipation that values will recover and potentially overtake the previous peak. It can help investors increase returns, but as a strategy, has risks.
Knowing when to buy the dip can be tricky – timing the market usually is – but there are times when it may pay off for some. If investors maintain an eye on stock market and economic trends, it may help in determining when to buy the dip and how likely a stock or the market will rebound. However, it’s still important to consider the downside risks of timing the market and buying the dip.
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Earnings calls and earnings reports recap a company’s quarter or fiscal year, giving investors critical information as to how a company is functioning and faring. Understanding what’s going on with stocks can be tricky for both new and seasoned investors. It’s not always clear where you can turn for accurate information that will help with investment decisions — that’s why earnings calls or reports may be helpful.
But an earnings report doesn’t tell the whole story. Therefore, companies will hold earnings calls to provide context and backstory behind the data in an earnings report to help investors make informed decisions.
What Is an Earnings Call?
An earnings call is a conference call between the management of a public company and any interested outside party — usually investors, analysts, and business reporters — to discuss the company’s financial results and future outlook. Earnings calls are generally held quarterly, in the form of a teleconference or webcast; anyone can listen to an earnings call.
The earnings call often comes on the heels of the release of an earnings report and covers a given reporting period, typically a fiscal quarter or fiscal year.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that public companies disclose certain financial information regularly and on an ongoing basis. Companies must file Form 10-Q quarterly reports during the first three fiscal quarters of the year. A 10-Q includes unaudited financial statements and provides the government and investors with a continuing account of the company’s financial position throughout the year.
For the fourth quarter of the year, a company will file a Form 10-K, an annual report that shares audited financial statements, a look at the company’s business overall, and financial conditions over the previous fiscal year. The financial information and metrics included on these reports, like earnings per share, is discussed during an earnings call.
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What Is the Importance of Earnings Calls?
An earnings call is important because it allows a company’s management to discuss pertinent financial information and a company’s outlook.
Publicly-traded companies are not required to hold earnings calls; they are only required to release the details of their financial performance in a Form 10-Q or Form 10-K. However, most public companies have quarterly conference calls to keep shareholders up to date with the latest financial developments and provide context beyond the earnings data.
Earnings calls are also important for investors, especially those practicing fundamental analysis. These calls help long-term investors decide whether or not to invest in or continue investing in a company. For short-term traders, earnings calls may be helpful to capitalize on short-term volatility in a stock’s price immediately following an earnings call.
A company will announce upcoming earnings calls several days or even several weeks before the event. The company will usually issue a press release containing dial-in or webcast access information for stakeholders interested in participating in the call.
Earnings calls are generally scheduled in the morning, before the stock market’s opening bell, or in the afternoon, following the end of the day’s trading. These calls occur shortly after an earnings report is made public.
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Safe Harbor Statement
When the call begins, a company representative will likely share a safe harbor statement, which is a disclaimer about some of the comments executives will make. Specifically, some statements might be “forward-looking” and discuss future revenue, margins, income, expenses, and overall business outlook. Because no company can predict the future, the SEC requires that each warns investors that forward-looking statements may differ from actual results and trends.
Overview of Financial Results
The earnings call is usually led by the CEO, CFO, or other senior executives. During the call, these executives will deliver prepared statements covering financial results and the company’s performance for the reporting period.
This section of the call allows company leaders to give a more in-depth look at the company from their own eyes beyond the data found in the earnings reports. Executives may discuss market trends or even unpredictable factors that could influence how the company moves forward. Management will also likely share risks and their plans to take them on.
Question and Answer Session
At the end of the call, there may be a chance for investors and analysts to ask questions about the financial results the company presents. However, not everyone will get to ask a question. The company’s management may answer these questions, or they may decline or defer answering until they have the correct information to make an accurate response.
Preparing for an Earnings Call as a Shareholder
Before listening in on an earnings call, it may help to research the company and its earnings history and listen to previous earnings calls. Here’s additional information to know how to listen to an earnings call.
Where to Find Earnings Call Info?
Companies will send out a press release announcing when they will give an earnings call. Investors can also check the investor relations section of a company’s website for scheduled earnings calls. Additionally, some financial news websites may keep calendars of expected upcoming earnings reports and calls investors can check to stay current.
Many companies will post audio from the call on their website, making it available to investors and analysts for a few weeks. Companies also frequently offer transcripts of the call to read. This is especially useful for investors who may have missed an earnings call.
Much of the information discussed in conference calls, including Forms 10-Q and 10-K, are part of the public record and searchable on the SEC’s website. To find a company’s public filings, the SEC has a searchable Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval system (EDGAR).
How Long is an Earnings Call?
An earnings call usually lasts for less than an hour. However, there are no requirements for how long an earnings call should be.
What to Listen For
Investors should treat earnings calls as valuable information on a company but know that it doesn’t typically paint the complete picture of its potential performance.
Some key things investors should listen for in an earnings call are:
• How the company performed compared to analysts’ expectations
• What the company attributes its financial performance to
• Any changes in guidance for the future
• Any significant challenges or headwinds the company is facing
• Questions from analysts and how management responds to them
Additionally, it may help to listen to the tone of the company’s executives when they are talking about the company’s performance. It isn’t quantifiable, but learning to pick up on the tone of management’s description of the company’s financials and the answers to analysts’ questions can help investors better understand the outlook for the company.
The Takeaway
Earnings calls provide investors with valuable insights into a company’s financial performance and outlook. These calls, paired with quarterly earnings reports, give investors a thorough understanding of the company, which helps with making investment decisions.
While earnings calls and earnings reports can be helpful to investors, keep in mind that they don’t tell the whole story. You’ll want to do your due diligence and further research to better inform your investment decisions, too.
Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).
For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.
SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below:
Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
