Bear Markets Explained

What Is a Bear Market? Characteristics and Causes, Explained

A bear market is defined as a broad market decline of 20% or more from recent highs, which lasts for at least two months. Although bear markets make for dramatic headlines, the truth is that bull markets tend to last much longer — the average bear market typically ends within a year.

While most investors might know the difference between a bull and a bear market, it’s important to know some of the characteristics of bear markets in order to understand how different market conditions may impact your portfolio and your investment choices.

What Is a Bear Market?

Investors and market watchers generally define a bear market as a drop of 20% or more from market highs. So, when investors refer to a bear market, it usually means that multiple broad market indexes, such as the Standard & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and others, fell by 20% or more over at least two months.

Note, though, that 20% is a somewhat arbitrary barometer, but it’s a common enough standard throughout the financial world.

The term bear market can also be used to describe a specific security. For example, when a particular stock drops 20% in a short time, it can be said that the stock has entered a bear market. Bear markets are the opposite of bull markets, the latter of which is when the market is seeing a broad increase in asset values.

Bear markets are often associated with economic recessions, although this isn’t always the case. As economic activity slows, people lose jobs, consumer spending falls, and business earnings decline. As a result, many companies may see their share prices tumble or stagnate as investors pull back.


💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Why Is It Called a Bear Market?

There are a variety of explanations for why “bear” and “bull” have come to describe specific market conditions. Some say a market slump is like a bear going into hibernation, versus a bull market that keeps charging upward.

The origins of the term bear market may also have come from the so-called bearskin market in the 18th century or earlier. There was a proverb that said it is unwise to sell a bear’s skin before one has caught the bear. Over time the term bearskin, and then bear, became used to describe the selling of assets.

Characteristics of a Bear Market

There are two different types of bear markets:

•   Regular bear market or cyclical bear market: The market declines and takes a few months to a year to recover.

•   Secular bear market: This type of bear market lasts longer and is driven more by long-term market trends than short-term consumer sentiment. A cyclical bear market can happen within a secular bear market.

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History of Bear Markets

The most recent U.S. bear market began in June 2022, largely sparked by rising interest rates and inflation. The bear market officially ended on June 8, 2023, lasting about 248 trading days, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and resulting in a market drop of around 25%.

Including the most recent bear market, the S&P 500 Index posted 13 declines of more than 20% since World War II. The table below shows the S&P 500’s returns from the highest point to the lowest point in a downturn. Bear markets average a decline of 32.4%, and generally last around 355 days.

Bear markets have occurred as close together as two years and as far apart as nearly 12 years. A secular bear market refers to a longer period of lower-than-average returns; this could last 10 years or more. A secular bear market may include minor rallies, but these don’t take hold.

A cyclical bear market is more likely to last a few weeks to a few months and is more a function of market volatility.

Peak (Start) Trough (End) Return Length (in days)
May 29, 1946 May 17, 1947 -28.78% 353
June 15, 1948 June 13, 1949 -20.57% 363
August 2, 1956 October 22, 1957 -21.63% 446
December 12, 1961 June 26, 1962 -27.97% 196
February 9, 1966 October 7, 1966 -22.18% 240
November 29, 1968 May 26, 1970 -36.06% 543
January 11, 1973 October 3, 1974 -48.20% 630
November 28, 1980 August 12, 1982 -27.11% 622
August 25, 1987 December 4, 1987 -33.51% 101
March 27, 2000 Sept. 21, 2001 -36.77% 545
Jan. 4, 2002 Oct. 9, 2002 -33.75% 278
October 9, 2007 Nov. 10, 2008 -51.93% 408
Jan. 6, 2009 March 9, 2009 -27.62% 62
February 19, 2020 March 23, 2020 -34% 33
June 2022 June 8, 2023 -25% 248
Average -34% 401

Source: Seeking Alpha/Dow Jones Market Data as of June 8, 2023.

What Causes a Bear Market?

Usually bear markets are caused by a loss of consumer, investor, and business confidence. Various factors can contribute to the loss of consumer confidence, such as changes to interest rates, global events, falling housing prices, or changes in the economy.

When the market reaches a high, people may feel that certain assets are overvalued. In that instance, people are less likely to buy those assets and more likely to start selling them, which can make prices fall.

When other investors see that prices are falling, they may anticipate that the market has reached a peak and will start declining, so they may also sell off their assets to try and profit on them before the decline. In some cases panic can set in, leading to a mass sell-off and a stock market crash (but this is rare).

Is a Recession the Same as a Bear Market?

No. Bear market conditions can lead to or preempt recessions if the market slump lasts long enough. But this isn’t always the case.

What Is a Bear Market Rally

Things can get tricky if there is a bear market rally. This happens when the market goes back up for a number of days or weeks, but the rise is only temporary. Investors may think that the market decline has ended and start buying, but it may in fact continue to decline after the rally. Sometimes the market does recover and go back into a bull market, but this is hard to predict.

If the bear market continues on long enough then it becomes a recession, which can go on for months or years. That said, it’s not always the case that a bear market means there will be a recession.

Once asset prices have decreased as much as they possibly can, consumer confidence begins to rise again, and people start buying. This reverses the bear market trend into a bull market, and the market starts to recover and grow again.

Example of a Bear Market

The most recent bear market occurred in June of 2022, when the S&P 500 closed 21.8% lower than its high on Jan. 3, 2022.

While the Nasdaq and the Dow showed a similar pattern in early 2022, the decline of those markets didn’t cross the 20% mark that signals official bear market territory.

Bear Market vs Bull Market

A bull market is essentially the opposite of a bear market. As consumer confidence increases, money goes into the markets and they go up.

A bull market is defined as a 20% rise from the low that the market hit in a bear market. However, the parameters of a bull market are not as clearly defined as they are for a bear market. Once the bottom of the bear market has been reached, people generally feel that a bull market has started.

Investing Tips During a Bear Market

There are a few different bear market investing strategies one can use to both prepare for a bear market and navigate through one.

1. Reduce Higher-Risk Investments

When preparing for a bear market, it’s a good idea to reduce higher-risk holdings such as growth stocks and speculative assets. One can move money into cash, gold, bonds, or other less risky investments to try and reduce the risk of losses if the market goes down.

These safe investments tend to perform better than stocks during a bear market. Types of stocks that tend to weather bear markets well include consumer staples and healthcare companies.

2. Diversify

Another investing strategy is diversification. Rather than having all of one’s money in stocks, distribute your investments across asset classes, e.g. precious metals, bonds, crypto, real estate, or other types of investments.

This way, if one type of asset goes down a lot, the others might not go down as much. Similarly, one asset may increase a lot in value, but it’s hard to predict which one, so diversifying increases the chances that one will be exposed to the upward trend, and you’ll see a gain.

3. Save Capital and Reduce Losses

During a bear market, a common strategy is to shift from growing capital into saving it and reducing losses. It may be tempting to try and pick where the market has hit the bottom and start buying growth assets again, but this is very hard to do. It’s safer to invest small amounts of money over time using a dollar-cost averaging strategy so that one’s investments all average out, rather than trying to predict market highs and lows.

4. Find Opportunities for Future Growth

However, in a broad sense if the market is at a high and assets are clearly overvalued, this may not be the best time to buy. And vice versa if assets are clearly undervalued it may be a good time to buy and grow one’s portfolio. A bear market can be a good time to identify assets that might grow in the next bull market and start investing in them.

5. Short Selling

A very risky strategy that some investors take is short selling in anticipation of a bear market. This involves borrowing shares and selling them, then hoping to buy them back at a lower price. It’s risky because there is no guarantee that the price of the shares will fall, and since the shares are borrowed, typically using a margin account, they may end up owing the broker money if their trade doesn’t work out as they hope.

Overall, it’s best to create a long-term investing strategy rather than focusing on short-term trends and making reactive decisions to market changes. It can be scary to watch one’s portfolio go down, especially if it happens fast, but selling off assets because the market is crashing generally doesn’t turn out well for investors.

The Takeaway

Bear markets can be scary times for investors, but even a prolonged drop of 20% or more isn’t likely to last more than a few months, according to historical data. In some cases, bear markets present opportunities to buy stocks at a discount (meaning, when prices are low), in the hope they might rise.

Also there are strategies you can use to reduce losses and prepare for the next bull market, including different types of asset allocation. The point is that whether the markets are considered bearish or bullish, any time can be a good time to invest.

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FAQ

How long do bear markets last?

Bear markets may last a few months to a year or more, but most bear markets end within a year’s time. If they go on longer than that they typically become recessions. And while a bear market can end in a few months, it can take longer for the market to regain lost ground.

When was the last bear market?

The most recent bear market started in June of 2022, when the S&P 500 fell from record highs in January for more than two months.


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How Midterm Elections Can Influence the Stock Market

How Midterm Elections Can Influence the Stock Market

Midterm elections can introduce uncertainty and turmoil to the stock market. A change in power in Congress could lead to policy and regulatory changes that could impact the economy and corporate profits. As such, investors will be watching to see which party wins control of Congress and the implications for the stock market.

Historically, the stock market has underperformed leading up to midterm elections and bounced back in the year following the elections. Many investors use this historical precedent to predict how midterms will affect the stock market in the future. However, past performance is not indicative of future results. The midterm elections may be less important on the stock market than other economic factors, like high interest rates, inflation, and rising energy costs.

What are the Midterm Elections?

As the name suggests, midterm elections occur in the middle of a presidential term, as opposed to a general election. Midterm elections are when voters elect every member of the House of Representatives, and about one-third of the members of the Senate. The results of the midterm elections often determine which political party controls the House and Senate, which could determine the future of economic policy that may affect the stock market, and investors’ plans for buying and selling stocks or other securities.

History of Midterm Elections Results

Historically, the president’s party loses ground in Congress during the midterm elections. Of the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. The president’s party gained seats in both the House and the Senate only twice over this period.

The flip in power during the midterm elections occurs, in part, because the president’s approval rating usually declines during the first two years in office, which can influence voters to vote against the party in power or not show up to the polls. Additionally, voters of the party not in control are often more motivated to vote during these elections, boosting voter turnout that can help the opposition party outperform the president’s party.

During the most recent midterm election cycle, in 2022, the Republican party won the House of Representatives with a 222-213 seat majority. The Democratic Party maintained a majority in the Senate, with a 51-seat majority.

Stock Market Performance During Year of Midterm Elections

Leading up to the midterm elections, the stock market tends to underperform. Since 1962, the average annual return of the S&P 500 Index in the 12 months before midterm elections is 0.3%. In contrast, the historical average return of the S&P 500 is an 8.1% gain.

This underperformance during the midterm year follows the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, which implies that the first two years of a president’s term tend to be the weakest for the stocks.

However, it’s unclear whether this downbeat performance and stock volatility in the year preceding the midterms is a function of investors’ views of potential election outcomes and subsequent policy changes.

Some analysts say that the underperformance occurs due to uncertainty about the election’s outcome and impact, and investors don’t like uncertainty. But others say that the more critical impact on the stock market is the state of the economy; factors like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, energy prices, inflation, and the state of the labor market are more important to the stock market.

Recommended: How Do Interest Rates Impact Stocks?

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Stock Market Performance Following Midterm Elections

Even though the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has historically underperformed leading up to the midterm elections, stocks have tended to overperform in the post-election environment. Between 1962 and 2022, the 12 months after midterm elections, the S&P 500 had an average return of 16.3%.

The gains in stocks following the midterm elections have occurred due to no single factor. One reason may be that investors prefer the certainty of knowing the makeup of the federal government and potential policy changes.

Moreover, some believe that because the president’s party typically loses ground in the midterm elections, it reduces the likelihood of policy changes that could have a negative impact on the economy. This, in turn, can provide a tailwind for stocks. The potential for gridlock, rather than sweeping policy and regulatory changes, is usually welcomed by investors.

How Did the 2022 Midterm Elections Affect the Stock Market?

It is always difficult to say how any midterm election cycle will affect the stock market. But we can look at the most recent midterm election, in 2022, to get a sense. Immediately following the election, on November 8, 2022, the S&P 500 did see an increase – but in December, the market later fell before gaining steam again in January.

So, it’s difficult to say how much the elections weighed on the markets, aside from other factors. During that time, for instance, rising inflation and interest rates may have been playing a larger role in the market’s performance than other variables.

But broadly and historically, again, the most obvious way the midterm elections could impact the markets is that if one party or the other gains control of Congress, that could influence economic policy and the country’s direction. This could lead to tax policy, regulation, and spending changes that could impact businesses and the stock market.
Another potential impact of the midterm elections is that if there is a change in control of Congress, that could lead to more investigations and subpoenas of businesses and individuals, which could create uncertainty that investors and the markets may not like.

The Takeaway

The history of midterm elections is one of cycles: the party in power typically loses ground during midterm elections, and the opposition party typically gains ground. And these cycles are also evident in the performance of the stock market, with muted stock gains in the year of a midterm election and substantial gains the year following the elections.

But despite these historical trends, no one can say for sure how the midterm elections will impact the stock market. And investors shouldn’t necessarily rely on these trends when making investing decisions. Instead, investors might want to try and maintain a long-term view to reach financial goals, avoiding the short-term noise and uncertainty of elections and politics. Investors should continue to focus on asset allocation, risk tolerance, and the time horizon of a diversified portfolio to achieve financial goals.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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How to Invest During a Recession

When the economy contracts and enters a recession, it’s often accompanied by rising unemployment and a declining stock market. For that reason, some investors are caught on their heels, unsure of what to do. But some simple strategies may help investors invest during a recession – and there can be some surprising benefits to doing so.

It may be a good idea to try and keep in mind that because your investments may be trending downward, you shouldn’t let fear or your emotions override your strategy. That’s not easy, of course, but may be helpful to keep in mind.

What You Need to Know About Investing in a Recession

Investors looking to buy and sell stocks or other securities during a time of economic upheaval need to keep many things in mind.

A recession describes a contraction in economic activity, often, though not officially defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of decline in the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially declares recessions, takes a broader view — including indicators like wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, employment, and real income.

The point is that the markets tend to price in those indicators, so much so that you may see the prices of stocks start to drop (and bond prices start to rise) even before a recession is officially declared. For example, the S&P 500 Index declined significantly from October 9, 2007, through March 9, 2009, a bear market that started two months before the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009.

From those lows in March 2009, the S&P 500 delivered a return of 400% through February 2020, surpassing the previous peak in April 2013. Those that stayed in the market despite unprecedented economic declines were still able to experience a positive return.

But that stock volatility can give investors the jitters — and that emotional state that can be contagious.

Behavioral finance experts have dubbed this tendency “herd mentality,” which means you’re more likely to behave similarly to a larger group than you realize. Combine that behavioral bias with another common one — loss aversion — and you can see how emotions can lead some investors to make impulsive choices in a moment of panic or doubt.

However, there is some good news: history shows that most recessions don’t last as long as you might think — about 17 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). So while an economic downturn can be scary while it lasts, it’s likely that time is on your side.

By staying the course and sticking with your investment strategy (and not yielding to emotion), the market recovery could help you recoup any losses and possibly see some gains — especially if you buy the dip (when prices are low). Though, remember, that nothing is guaranteed.

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Investing Strategies for a Recession

The following are a few investment strategies that may help investors weather a recession:

Dollar-Cost Averaging

While it’s critical for investors to stay true to their long-term strategy during a recession, what about investing new money? This is where the concept of dollar-cost averaging is important for investors to keep in mind.

Dollar-cost averaging, simply put, is a systematic way of investing a fixed amount of money regularly. It’s often used to describe the way most people invest, on a paycheck-by-paycheck basis, through workplace 401(k) and 403(b) plans.

This approach spreads the cost basis out over a long period of time and a wide range of prices. By doing so, it provides a degree of insulation against market fluctuations. During times of rapidly rising share prices, the investor will have a higher cost basis than they otherwise would have had. During times of collapsing stock prices, the investor will have a lower cost basis than they otherwise would have had.

Taken together, then, dollar-cost averaging can help you pay less for your investments on average over time and help to improve long-term returns.

Buy and Hold

Because most investors invest with a long-term time horizon, it may be best to employ a buy and hold investment strategy. This strategy can often be paired with a dollar-cost averaging strategy.

In short, a buy and hold strategy is a passive strategy in which investors buy stocks, exchange-traded funds, and other securities and hold on to them for a long time.

By buying and holding, investors believe that they are likely to earn long-term investment returns despite whatever short-term market volatility may come their way. They think an extended time horizon allows them to ride out short-term dips in the market.

This strategy can also help investors avoid emotional investing or trying to time the market.

Rebalancing

Investors try to gauge how close or far they are from their goals because your time horizon determines how you invest. For instance, a younger investor may have a portfolio that’s heavier in growth stocks and lighter when it comes to bonds and cash.

For an investor nearing an important goal, like retirement, the priority may be safety and security or investments like high-quality (but lower-yielding) bonds. Over time, investors need to rebalance their portfolios, shifting the allocation of different asset classes. A younger investor may start with an allocation of 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash. But as they near retirement, that equity allocation might shift toward 50% stocks or even lower.

Tax-Loss Harvesting

A recession can also be a chance to sell out of a mix of investments, owing to tax considerations. Investors can take advantage of tax-loss harvesting by selling stocks or mutual funds that have appreciated alongside those that have lost value. This strategy allows investors to use investments that have declined in value to offset investment gains and potentially reduce their annual tax bill.

When an investor wants to reduce capital gains taxes they owe on investments they’ve sold, tax-loss harvesting can allow an investor to deduct $3,000 in losses per year. As such, the strategy can be the silver lining on investments that didn’t work out.

Potential Investments During a Recession

It’s worth remembering some investments tend to perform better than others during recessions. Recessions are generally bad news for highly leveraged, cyclical, and speculative companies. These companies may not have the resources to withstand a rocky market.

By contrast, the companies that have traditionally survived and even outperformed during a downturn are companies with very little debt and strong cash flow. If those companies are in traditionally recession-resistant sectors, like essential consumer goods, utilities, defense contractors, and discount retailers, they may deserve closer consideration.

Recommended: What Types of Stocks Do Well During Volatility?

Some investors might also seek out even more defensive positions during a recession by buying real estate, precious metals (e.g., gold), or investing in established, dividend-paying stocks.

Additionally, some investors may look to move some money out of riskier investments like stocks, bonds, or commodities and into cash and cash equivalents. For some investors, having adequate cash on hand or having money invested in certificates of deposit (CDs) and money market funds may be a good option for a portfolio during a recession.

Bear in mind that every recession impacts different sectors in different ways. During the Great Recession of 2008-09, financial companies suffered — because it was a financial crisis. In 2020, biotech companies tended to thrive, but investments in energy companies have been hit harder owing to fluctuating oil prices.

As an investor, you must do the math on where the risks and opportunities lie during a recession.

What to Avoid In a Recession

During a recession, it’s important to remember two key tenets that will help you stick to your investing strategy. The first is: While markets change, your financial goals don’t. The second is: Paper losses aren’t real until you cash out.

The first tenet refers to the fact that investors go into the market because they want to achieve certain financial goals. Those goals are often years or decades in the future. But as noted above, the typically shorter-term nature of a recession may not ultimately impact those longer-term financial plans. So, most investors want to avoid changing their financial goals and strategies on the fly just because the economy and financial markets are declining.

The second tenet is a caveat for the many investors who watch their investments — even their long-term ones — far too closely. While markets can decline and account balances can fall, those losses aren’t real until an investor sells their investments. If you wait, it’s possible you’ll see some of those paper losses regain their value.

So, investors should generally avoid panicking and making rash decisions to sell their investments in the face of down markets. Panicked and emotional selling may lead you into the trap of “buying high and selling low,” the opposite of what most investors are trying to do.

The Takeaway

Investing during a recession is really what you make of it. While market volatility can spark investor worries, it’s possible to manage your emotions, stay in control of your investment strategy, and possibly come out ahead. Sticking to some broad strategies may be able to help, such as dollar-cost averaging or a buy-and-hold approach. Of course, nothing will guarantee that you generate positive returns during a recession, but certain strategies may help buoy your portfolio during economic upheaval.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Understanding the Buy Low, Sell High Strategy

Buy Low, Sell High Strategy: An Investor’s Guide

When it comes to investing, there are certain rules of thumb that investors are often encouraged to follow. One of the most-repeated adages in investing is to try and “buy low, sell high.”

Buying low and selling high simply means purchasing securities at one price, then selling them later at a higher price. This bit of investing wisdom offers a relatively straightforward take on how to realize profits in the market. But figuring out how to buy low and sell high — and make this strategy work — is a bit more complicated. Timing the market is not a perfect science, and understanding that implementing a buy low, sell high strategy is more complicated than it sounds is critical to investor success.

Key Points

•   Buy low, sell high is an investment strategy that involves purchasing securities at a lower price and selling them later at a higher price.

•   Timing the market and implementing this strategy can be challenging, as market movements are unpredictable.

•   Understanding stock market cycles and trends can help determine when to buy low and sell high.

•   Technical indicators and moving averages can assist in identifying pricing trends and points of resistance.

•   Investor biases and herd mentality can impact decision-making, so it’s important to make rational choices based on research and analysis.

What Does It Mean to “Buy Low, Sell High”?

“Buy low, sell high” is an investment philosophy that advocates buying stocks or other securities at one price, and then selling them later when they’ve (hopefully) gained value. This is the opposite of buying high and selling low, which effectively results in investors selling stocks at a loss.

When investors buy low and sell high, they may do so to maximize profits. For example, a day trader may purchase shares of XYZ stock at $10 in the morning, then turn around and sell them for $30 per share in the afternoon if the stock’s price increases. The result is a $20 profit per share, less trading fees or commissions. Of course, a price increase of that magnitude within a single day is highly unlikely.

Likewise, a buy and hold investor may purchase stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or mutual funds and hold onto them for years or even decades. The payoff comes if they sell those securities later for more than what they paid for them.

Recommended: How to Know When to Sell a Stock

4 Tips on How to Buy Low and Sell High

The following tips may help investors develop a buy low, sell high strategy (or avoid the buy high, sell low trap).

1. Investing with the Business Cycle

Understanding stock market cycles and their correlation to the business cycle can help when determining how to buy low and sell high.

The business cycle is the rise and fall in economic activity that an economy experiences over time. If the business cycle is in an expansion phase and the economy is growing, for instance, then stock prices may be on the upswing as well. On the other hand, if it’s become apparent that economic growth has peaked, that could be a signal for stock price drops to come as an economy slows or enters into a recession.

But like most strategies that aim to buy low and sell high, investing with the business cycle can be challenging.

It’s also important to remember that security prices typically don’t move in a straight line up or down in lockstep with a specific phase of the business cycle. Instead, most securities experience a level of volatility, where prices move up or down (or both) in the short term before reverting to the mean.

2. Look at Stock Pricing Trends

Investors who want to buy low may find it helpful to pay attention to pricing trends or technical indicators. Tracking trends for individual securities, for a particular stock market sector, or the market as a whole can help investors get a sense of what kind of momentum is driving prices.

For instance, an investor wondering how low a stock price can go can look at technical indicator trends to identify significant pricing dips or rises in the stock’s history. This could, potentially, help determine when a stock or security has reached its bottom, opening the door for buying opportunities. Conversely, investors may also use trends to evaluate when a stock has likely reached its high point, indicating that it’s prime time to sell.

3. Use Moving Averages

Moving averages are a commonly used indicator for technical analysis. A moving average represents the average price of a security over a set time period. So to find a simple moving average, for example, an investor would choose a time period to measure. Then they’d add up the stock’s closing price each day for that time period and divide it by the number of days.

The moving average formula can help compare stock pricing and determine points of resistance. In other words, they can tell investors where stock prices have topped out or bottomed out over time. Moving averages can smooth out occasional pricing blips that temporarily push stock prices up or down.

Comparing one moving average to another, such as the 50-day moving average to the 200-day moving average, can also help investors to spot sustainable up or down pricing trends. All this can help when deciding when to buy low or sell high.

4. Beware of Investor Bias

An investor bias is a pattern of behavior that influences reactions to a changing market. For example, noise trading happens when an investor makes a trade without considering the state of the market or timing. The investor may follow pricing trends but make trades without considering whether the time is right to buy or sell.

Investors who give in to biases may find themselves following a herd mentality when it comes to making trades. If news of a pending interest rate hike sparks fear in the markets, investors may start panic selling in droves. This can, in turn, cause stock prices to drop. On the other hand, irrational exuberance for a specific stock or type of security can push prices up, causing an unsustainable market bubble.

Investors who can refrain from being influenced by the crowd stand a better chance of making rational decisions about when to buy or when to sell to either maximize profits or minimize losses.

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Pros and Cons of Buy Low, Sell High

A buy low, sell high strategy can work for investors, but while it’s a worthy goal, the implementation can be difficult. Investors who are too focused on timing the stock market can run into difficulties.

Benefits of Buy Low, Sell High

Buying low and selling high can yield these advantages to investors.

•   Potential bargain-buying opportunities. If investor sentiment is causing fear and panic to take over the market and push stock prices down, that could open a door for buy low, sell high investors as they buy the dip. Individuals who ignore market panic could purchase stocks and other securities at a discount, only to benefit later once the market rebounds and prices begin to rise again.

•   Potential for high returns. An investor skilled at spotting trendings and reading the market cycle could reap sizable profits using a buy low, sell high strategy. The wider the gap between a stock’s purchase and sale price, the higher the profit margin.

•   Beat the market. A buy low, sell high approach could also help investors to beat the market if their portfolio performs better than expected. This might be preferable for active traders who forgo a passive or indexing approach to investing.

Disadvantages of Buy Low, Sell High

Attempting to buy low and sell high also holds some risks for investors.

•   Timing the market is imperfect. There’s no way to time the market and which way stock prices will go at any given moment with 100% accuracy. So there’s still some risk for investors who jump the gun on when to buy or sell if stocks have yet to reach their respective lowest or highest points.

•   Being left out of the market. Investors who want to buy low and sell high would not want to buy securities when the market is up. That practice, however, could lead to substantial time out of the market entirely, especially during bull markets.

•   Biases can influence decision-making. Investment biases and herd mentality can wreak havoc in a portfolio if an investor allows it. Instead of buying low and selling at a profit later, investors may find themselves in a buy high, sell low cycle where they lose money on investments.

•   Pricing doesn’t tell the whole story. While tracking stock pricing trends and moving averages can be useful, they don’t offer a complete picture of what drives pricing changes. For that reason, it’s important for investors also to consider other factors, such as consumer sentiment, the possibility of a merger, or geopolitical events, influencing stock prices.

Alternatives to Buy Low, Sell High

Buying low and selling high is not a foolproof way to match or beat the market’s performance. It’s easy to make mistakes and lose money when attempting to time the market unless, of course, you possess a crystal ball or psychic abilities.

There are, however, other ways to invest without trying to time the market. Take dollar-cost averaging, for example. This strategy involves staying invested in the market continuously through its changing cycles. Instead of trying to time when to buy or sell, investors continue making new investments. Over time, the highs and lows in stock pricing tend to average out.

A dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) is another option. Investors who own dividend-paying stocks may have the opportunity to enroll in a DRIP. Instead of receiving dividend payouts as cash, they’re reinvesting into additional shares of the same stock. Similar to dollar-cost averaging, this approach could make it easier to ride out the ups and downs of the market over time and eliminate the stress of deciding when to buy or sell.

Investing with SoFi

A buy low, sell high investment strategy is fairly simple, in that it involves buying a security at one price, and selling it after, or if, it appreciates. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that any asset will appreciate, so it’s possible investors could lose money – but they could also see positive returns, too.

Further, the strategy can be challenging to implement. Executing a buy low, sell high plan successfully means researching and doing due diligence to understand how the market works.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

Is buying low and selling high a good strategy?

Buying low and selling high can generally be a good strategy as it allows you to take advantage of price movements in the market. However, there is no guarantee that this strategy will always be successful, and you may end up losing money if the market conditions are not favorable.

Is it illegal to buy low and sell high?

There is no law against buying low and selling high. Most investors make money by buying a security at a low price and then selling it later at a higher price.

Why do you sell high and buy low?

Many investors sell high and buy low because they want to take advantage of market conditions to realize a positive return. When the market is high, investors may sell an investment they purchased at a lower price to make a profit.


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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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14 Reasons Why It’s So Hard to Save Money Today

There are many factors that make it hard to save money today, from the high price of groceries to the high interest rates on credit cards. Inflation. If you’re feeling a pinch, you’re not alone. It’s difficult to afford daily expenses and to save for financial goals, like having an emergency fund.

When it comes to covering a $400 unexpected expense, 37% of adults said they would have to borrow, sell something or not be able to cover the expense, according to a 2023 survey from the Federal Reserve. And emergencies can be more expensive than that $400 figure.

Beyond emergency funds, saving for other goals, like the down payment on a house or one’s retirement, are also feeling as if they are hard to achieve. These are worthwhile goals that build wealth. But how do you begin saving when everything is so expensive?

Read on to learn 14 reasons why you’re likely having trouble saving money, plus tips for how to start stashing away more cash.

Key Points

•   High inflation and rising costs for essentials groceries make saving more challenging.

•   Many adults struggle to cover unexpected expenses without resorting to credit.

•   Debt, especially from high-interest credit cards, significantly hinders the ability to save.

•   Lack of budgeting contributes to poor financial management and savings shortfalls.

•   Social pressures and lifestyle inflation can lead to increased spending, further impeding savings efforts.

Challenges of Saving Money in Today’s Economy

Here are some of the most common reasons why you may find it hard to save money.

1. Not Focusing on Paying Down Debt

Having debt is one of the reasons many people have difficulty saving money. The urge to pay it off vs. save is strong. That’s especially true if you’re carrying revolving debt, like debt from credit cards. Interest rates on these types of accounts can change, which may mean that you’re owing even more money in interest than you may have thought. Right now, the range of interest rates on credit cards is around 13% to 27%.

American household debt hit a record high of $17.69 trillion in early 2024, according to the Federal Reserve. This debt includes student loan debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt, and personal loan debt. Some of this debt can be low-interest, like many mortgages, which also help a person build equity.

The kind of debt that typically prevents a person from saving is high-interest credit card debt. Paying that down by consolidating debt with a low- or no-interest card or by taking out a lower-interest personal loan can be good solutions.

2. Budgeting is a Non-Factor

Budgeting can sound intimidating, but assigning a dollar to all aspects of your cash flow can ensure that you don’t lose track of money. Recently, the average household earned $74,580 before taxes, according to U.S. Census data. Of that money, necessary expenditures — housing, food, health insurance — ate up the majority of the money, leaving little in free cash flow.

This “free cash flow” isn’t free, of course. It’s money to be put toward paying down debt, building an emergency fund, as well as paying for extras, like vacations and nights out. Knowing exactly how much you have and tracking your spending can help you put some money into savings. Try one of the popular budgets, like the envelope system or the 50/30/20 rule (which has you put 50% of after-tax money toward needs, 30% toward wants, and 20% toward saving), to take control of your cash.

3. Trying to Impress Friends With Money

Maybe friends invite you to a pricier-than-expected restaurant and you go along, only to split the painfully expensive check. That’s an example of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) spending, which is an update on “Keeping up with the Joneses). Or perhaps you get a bonus and blow it on a status wristwatch to feel as if you fit in with your big-spender pals.

If you feel like you’re always spending money with friends, consider ways to potentially minimize that outflow of cash. Hikes, potlucks, and checking out local events can all be ways to cut down on these costs. They are relatively easy ways to save money. Or you might go back to that budget you created (see #1) and make sure you stick to it when it comes to splurge-y spending.

4. Not Earning Enough Money

It’s important that the money you earn be able to cover all your expenses. And sometimes, when your expenses increase unexpectedly, your paycheck doesn’t stretch as far as you need. Making and sticking to a budget can help you understand how much you’re spending each month, and can clue you into increases.

For example, say your rent renews 10% above what you were paying last year or your auto insurance increases. That money needs to come from somewhere. You might consider the benefits of a side hustle. Maybe you can sell the jewelry you make on Etsy, get a weekend job at a nearby cafe, or drive a ride-share from time to time.

5. Not Having an Emergency Fund

Saving for emergencies is important for many reasons, one of which is to have an emergency fund. An emergency fund is what it sounds like: Cash that can cover an emergency, which can be anything from a blown tire to a trip to the vet to covering expenses if you were unexpectedly let go from your job. Having an emergency fund relatively liquid and easy to access in a high-yield savings account (rather than in investments) means you can tap into it relatively quickly if you were to need it.

Most financial experts advise having three to six months’ worth of basic living expenses in an emergency fund. Set up regular transfers from your checking account to fund that; even $25 a week or a month is a start. Consider putting a windfall, like a tax refund, there as well.

Earn up to 4.30% APY with a high-yield savings account from SoFi.

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6. Shopping Too Much

Shopping too much doesn’t mean always filling your online cart or always having packages at the doorstep. It could just mean that you’re not being strategic about how much you’re paying. For example, buying groceries every day at a nearby gourmet grocery could be much more expensive over time than doing a weekly or bi-weekly shopping trip to a warehouse club.

Making lists, tracking items over time, and making sure you get the best price by using coupons and cash back offers are all ways that can help you save money and even have fun while doing so.

7. Inflation in Housing, Education and More

Sky-high housing prices. Rising tuition costs. And interest rates that are increasing. Inflation can make everything more expensive. This can make it challenging to figure out how much to save, especially if you’re saving for a house or putting aside money for tuition. Inflation can also make smaller things, like grocery runs, more expensive too. Overall, rising prices can make it feel difficult to save money, let alone keep your checking account where you want it to be.

Take a deep breath and remind yourself of the cyclical nature of the economy. America has had recessions, a Great Depression, and plenty of inflation before. Persevere and be money motivated: Do your best to control spending and save, if possible, 10% of your take-home earnings towards your future goals.

8. Paying for Items We Don’t Use

How much stuff do you own? Probably way more than you regularly use. And it’s not only physical stuff. Unused digital subscriptions and wasted food…all of it adds up to spending money on things we don’t need.

One quick way to get that money back: Go through your last month of bank account payments and note any money you spent on subscriptions. Chances are, there are at least one or two you either don’t use or use so rarely you can let them go without missing them. For instance, check out how many streaming channels you are paying for. It could save you hundreds of dollars a year if you lose one or two.

9. Saving Money is Not Our Priority

If you wait until the end of the month to put aside whatever you have left, chances are there’s no money left. That’s why prioritizing saving is so important. Learning to save can be a skill, and employing smart strategies can help you make sure that you keep that skill strong.

For example, you can automatically transfer money from your paycheck into savings, so you don’t see it sitting there and aren’t tempted to spend it. Budgeting apps can also be helpful to curb spending so you have more money to save.

10. Cost of Living is Rising

We’ve touched on inflation hitting the large things we’re saving for, and the small things we buy every day. Inflation is notable across so many spending categories: The World Economic Forum found that food prices increased worldwide by nearly 10% from January to April 2022 — the largest 12-month rise since 1982. This past year, they rose just 1%, but rising less swiftly of course is very different from seeing costs move lower.

There are various ways to manage this. One way to get a quick cash infusion is to sell things you have but no longer need or use. This might be gently used clothing, a laptop that’s sitting unused, or that mountain bike that is gathering dust. You can try a garage sale, Nextdoor, Craigslist, or local Facebook groups, or (if it’s something small) eBay or Etsy.

11. Spending Too Money On Social Activities

All too often, hanging out comes with a price tag. After dinner, or a show, or drinks you’ve depleted your bank account. Setting up a budget for socializing can help you spend money wisely. You might check out the restaurant in your neighborhood you’ve been dying to try when they have a reasonably priced prix fixe menu; that way, you’d still have space to save. Thinking of cheap activities and researching free things going on in your community (music, fairs, and more) can help you go out without the steep price tag.

12. Lifestyle Creep

If you’re not familiar with the expression, lifestyle creep is when increased income leads to increased spending. As your pay goes up, you may feel justified in moving up to a rental home with more amenities. You may be more likely to go to more expensive hotels when traveling and join pricey gyms. Lifestyle creep can make it tough to pay down debt, boost savings, and build wealth.

Upgrading your leisure habits when you make more money isn’t a bad thing — but it can be something to be conscious of, especially if you feel like you aren’t saving enough. This may be a good moment to pick and choose your perks. If you are moving to a more expensive apartment, say, maybe you skip that quick vacation you were thinking of taking. Or you could come up with fun ways to save money, like monthly challenges. For instance, don’t buy any fancy lattes for a month and put the money in savings. You may be surprised by how much you save.

13. Not Thinking Ahead

One big reason it’s so hard to save money is that we are so rooted in the present. It’s a real challenge to imagine our toddler needing college tuition money or ourselves being old enough to retire. It can be easier just to put those thoughts to one side for a while.

But when that happens, the opportunity for compound interest is lost. For instance, if Person A were to save $1,000 a month from age 25 to 65, accruing 6% interest, they would have more than $2+ million in the bank at age 65. If Person B saved the same $1,000 a month from age 35 onward until they turned 65, they would have about $1,000,000, or half as much!

By budgeting, planning ahead, and saving, you can have financial discipline and enjoy these kinds of results. It’s important to remind yourself to take care of tomorrow as well as today.

14. Spending Money is Easy

Whether you’re out and about or scrolling through your phone, opportunities to spend money are everywhere. You see a delicious poke bowl while running errands, or you’re looking at your friend’s baby on Instagram, and there are those vitamins everyone is talking about. Ka-ching.

It’s definitely a challenge to grow your money mindset and be able to ignore all of these temptations and focus on longer-term financial goals. Namely, saving for “out of sight, out of mind” future needs. Here’s where your budget can once again be helpful. By having a small stash of cash for fun, on-the-fly expenditures, you can treat yourself (something we all need now and then) without blowing your budget. You will likely be a more mindful and careful consumer if you know, say, that you have $25 this week for a reward.

The Takeaway

Yes, it can be hard to save money due to rising costs, high interest rates, FOMO, lifestyle creep, and other forces. But if you focus on saving money, you’ll find more and more ways to maximize the money you do have. One of the ways to do so is to look for a banking partner with low (or no) fees and high interest rates.

Take a look at what SoFi offers.

Interested in opening an online bank account? When you sign up for a SoFi Checking and Savings account with direct deposit, you’ll get a competitive annual percentage yield (APY), pay zero account fees, and enjoy an array of rewards, such as access to the Allpoint Network of 55,000+ fee-free ATMs globally. Qualifying accounts can even access their paycheck up to two days early.


Better banking is here with SoFi, NerdWallet’s 2024 winner for Best Checking Account Overall.* Enjoy up to 4.30% APY on SoFi Checking and Savings.

FAQ

What are the challenges of saving money?

An increased cost of living, lack of a budget, and other factors can make it hard to save. Add in temptations to spend, social pressure, and the fact that a purchase can momentarily lift your spirits, and you have plenty of reasons why saving can be challenging. The good news: A few behavioral tweaks (such as finding a budget you can really follow) can help you save money and make the most of every dollar.

Do millionaires struggle to save money?

Yes. Studies and surveys have found that even high earners live paycheck to paycheck. Fortunately, there are always ways to save, regardless of the size of your bank account. The same rules of budgeting, setting up automatic transfers into savings, and being a smart consumer can help anyone.

How do you stay motivated when it’s so hard to save money?

Motivation varies. Some people find it motivating to see their credit card balance go down, other people like to see their retirement account balance grow, and still others like to mix it up and give themselves a different saving challenge each month. The trick is finding a strategy that works for you.


Photo credit: iStock/sorrapong
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SoFi members with direct deposit activity can earn 4.30% annual percentage yield (APY) on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% APY on checking balances. Direct Deposit means a recurring deposit of regular income to an account holder’s SoFi Checking or Savings account, including payroll, pension, or government benefit payments (e.g., Social Security), made by the account holder’s employer, payroll or benefits provider or government agency (“Direct Deposit”) via the Automated Clearing House (“ACH”) Network during a 30-day Evaluation Period (as defined below). Deposits that are not from an employer or government agency, including but not limited to check deposits, peer-to-peer transfers (e.g., transfers from PayPal, Venmo, etc.), merchant transactions (e.g., transactions from PayPal, Stripe, Square, etc.), and bank ACH funds transfers and wire transfers from external accounts, or are non-recurring in nature (e.g., IRS tax refunds), do not constitute Direct Deposit activity. There is no minimum Direct Deposit amount required to qualify for the stated interest rate. SoFi members with direct deposit are eligible for other SoFi Plus benefits.

As an alternative to direct deposit, SoFi members with Qualifying Deposits can earn 4.30% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% APY on checking balances. Qualifying Deposits means one or more deposits that, in the aggregate, are equal to or greater than $5,000 to an account holder’s SoFi Checking and Savings account (“Qualifying Deposits”) during a 30-day Evaluation Period (as defined below). Qualifying Deposits only include those deposits from the following eligible sources: (i) ACH transfers, (ii) inbound wire transfers, (iii) peer-to-peer transfers (i.e., external transfers from PayPal, Venmo, etc. and internal peer-to-peer transfers from a SoFi account belonging to another account holder), (iv) check deposits, (v) instant funding to your SoFi Bank Debit Card, (vi) push payments to your SoFi Bank Debit Card, and (vii) cash deposits. Qualifying Deposits do not include: (i) transfers between an account holder’s Checking account, Savings account, and/or Vaults; (ii) interest payments; (iii) bonuses issued by SoFi Bank or its affiliates; or (iv) credits, reversals, and refunds from SoFi Bank, N.A. (“SoFi Bank”) or from a merchant. SoFi members with Qualifying Deposits are not eligible for other SoFi Plus benefits.

SoFi Bank shall, in its sole discretion, assess each account holder’s Direct Deposit activity and Qualifying Deposits throughout each 30-Day Evaluation Period to determine the applicability of rates and may request additional documentation for verification of eligibility. The 30-Day Evaluation Period refers to the “Start Date” and “End Date” set forth on the APY Details page of your account, which comprises a period of 30 calendar days (the “30-Day Evaluation Period”). You can access the APY Details page at any time by logging into your SoFi account on the SoFi mobile app or SoFi website and selecting either (i) Banking > Savings > Current APY or (ii) Banking > Checking > Current APY. Upon receiving a Direct Deposit or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits to your account, you will begin earning 4.30% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% on checking balances on or before the following calendar day. You will continue to earn these APYs for (i) the remainder of the current 30-Day Evaluation Period and through the end of the subsequent 30-Day Evaluation Period and (ii) any following 30-day Evaluation Periods during which SoFi Bank determines you to have Direct Deposit activity or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits without interruption.

SoFi Bank reserves the right to grant a grace period to account holders following a change in Direct Deposit activity or Qualifying Deposits activity before adjusting rates. If SoFi Bank grants you a grace period, the dates for such grace period will be reflected on the APY Details page of your account. If SoFi Bank determines that you did not have Direct Deposit activity or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits during the current 30-day Evaluation Period and, if applicable, the grace period, then you will begin earning the rates earned by account holders without either Direct Deposit or Qualifying Deposits until you have Direct Deposit activity or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits in a subsequent 30-Day Evaluation Period. For the avoidance of doubt, an account holder with both Direct Deposit activity and Qualifying Deposits will earn the rates earned by account holders with Direct Deposit.

Members without either Direct Deposit activity or Qualifying Deposits, as determined by SoFi Bank, during a 30-Day Evaluation Period and, if applicable, the grace period, will earn 1.20% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% APY on checking balances.

Interest rates are variable and subject to change at any time. These rates are current as of 10/8/2024. There is no minimum balance requirement. Additional information can be found at https://www.sofi.com/legal/banking-rate-sheet.

*Awards or rankings from NerdWallet are not indicative of future success or results. This award and its ratings are independently determined and awarded by their respective publications.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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