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Student loan debt is at an all-time high, with more students graduating with debt than ever before. Consider this: Almost 44 million borrowers have federal student loan debt and they owe, on average, $37,338. As recent graduates begin their careers, it can be overwhelming to figure out how to make monthly student loan payments.

Ignoring your payments may seem like an easy way out, but student loan default can have extreme consequences. If you’re struggling with student loan payments or are already in default, there are ways to recover. For instance, you could consolidate defaulted student loans. Refinancing defaulted student loans may also be an option. This guide will help you figure out your best option.

What Is Student Loan Default?

If your student loan is in default, it means you have failed to make payments on your student loans for several months in a row. However, there are a few steps that occur before defaulting on student loans.

Federal student loans are considered delinquent once you miss a student loan payment. After 90 days of delinquency, your loan servicer can report the missed payments to the three major credit bureaus. Generally, after 270 days of nonpayment, your loan will go into default.

If you have private student loans, they can go into default even sooner. Typically, after you miss three payments or 120 days, your private student loans go into default. Different lenders have different terms when it comes to default, however, so be sure to check with yours to get the specifics.


💡 Quick Tip: Get flexible terms and competitive rates when you refinance your student loan with SoFi.

How Common Is Defaulting on Student Loans?

Defaulting on student loans is fairly common. The latest data from EducationData.org finds that one in 10 student loan borrowers has defaulted on a loan. In fact, roughly 4 million student loans go into default every year, and about 7% of loans are in default at any given time. As of 2021, the median loan balance among delinquent and defaulted borrowers was $15,307.

What Are the Consequences of Student Loan Default?

Defaulting on your student loans can have some steep consequences. For starters, the entire balance of your student loans could become due in full.

If you default on your student loans, your lender may eventually turn your debt over to a collection agency who will usually start calling, emailing, and even texting you to try and collect on your debt. You may even have to pay collection fees on top of everything else.

If you default, you may lose eligibility for programs that could help you manage your debt, such as deferment, forbearance, or Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

Once your student loans are in default, your loan servicer or collection agency will report your default to the three major credit bureaus, which will negatively impact your credit score.

And if your servicer can’t collect the money you owe on your federal student loans, they can ask the federal government to garnish a portion of your wages or your tax refund.

How Can You Recover From Student Loan Default?

If you failed to make payments on your student loans and they’ve gone into default, you don’t have to let it ruin your financial future. Here are some steps you can take to get back on track.

Loan Rehabilitation

One option for getting out of student loan default is student loan rehabilitation. To rehabilitate your loan, you work with your loan servicer and agree in writing to make nine reasonable and affordable monthly payments over a period of 10 months.

In order to rehabilitate a Direct Loan or FFEL program loan, your monthly payments must be no more than 20 days late. Your loan servicer will determine the new monthly payment, which is 15% of your discretionary income.

When you have successfully rehabilitated your loan, the default may be wiped from your credit history. Note that any late payments reported to the credit bureaus before the loan went into default will remain on your credit reports.

Private student loans are not eligible for rehabilitation.

Consumer Credit Counseling Services (CCCS)

Credit Consumer Counseling Services (CCCS) are typically nonprofit organizations that offer free or low-cost counseling, education, and debt repayment services to help people regain control of their finances and make a plan to get out of debt.

If you’ve defaulted on your student loans, a credit counselor can help by analyzing your financial situation and student debt, laying out all the options for student loan debt relief, and helping you choose the best path forward.

CCCS agencies can also help you set up a budget and manage other debts. In some cases, they will work with your creditors to come up with payment plans where creditors agree that they will not pursue collection efforts or charge late fees while on the plan.

One word of caution: Credit counseling agencies are not the same thing as debt settlement companies, which are profit-driven businesses that often charge steep fees for results that are rarely guaranteed. Even if they are successful in reducing your debt, their fees (plus the unpaid interest and late payment charges on the debt) can add to what you initially owed, reducing your actual savings.

To ensure you find a reputable credit counselor, you might start your search using the U.S. Department of Justice’s list of approved credit counseling agencies.

Repaying Your Loan in Full

Another option to get out from under the shadow of student loan default is to repay your loans in full. Of course, if you had the funds to do so, you probably wouldn’t have defaulted in the first place. That said, you could look into ways to cover the balance due, such as borrowing from a family member or close friend.

Options for Private Student Loans

If you have private student loans that are in default, you can contact your lender and see what possibilities are available. Some lenders may have hardship options similar to the federal programs. As mentioned, the time it will take for your unpaid private loan to go into default depends on the lender — but the timeframe could be relatively short, even just 120 days.

However, if you’ve only recently missed a payment, you can start making payments again (and repay the missed payment) to try to prevent your loan from going into default.

Is Refinancing an Option for Defaulted Student Loans?

If your student loans are currently in default, refinancing your loans can be difficult. When you refinance your student loans, you take out a new loan with a private lender to pay off the existing loans. When you apply for a refinancing loan, lenders will use your credit score and financial history, among a few other factors, to determine if you qualify.

If your loan is already in default, your credit score has likely decreased significantly and will likely impact your ability to get approved for a new loan. If you have a family member or friend who is willing to cosign the loan, however, you may be able to refinance your student loans that way.

Another possibility for refinancing your student loans would be to rehabilitate your loans first. A lot of lenders might turn you down for having a defaulted loan on your credit history, but others might be willing to look past that and onto your education and income potential to approve you for a loan.

💡 Quick Tip: When refinancing a student loan, you may shorten or extend the loan term. Shortening your loan term may result in higher monthly payments but significantly less total interest paid. A longer loan term typically results in lower monthly payments but more total interest paid.

Can you Consolidate Defaulted Student Loans?

Another way to recover from student loan default is to consolidate your student loans in default. If you have federal loans, you can pursue defaulted student loan consolidation with the Direct Consolidation Loan program. This program allows you to combine one or more federal loans into a new consolidation loan.

To be eligible, you must either make three full, on-time, and consecutive payments on the defaulted loan or agree to make payments on an income-driven repayment plan.

Private student loans aren’t eligible for Direct Consolidation Loans. However, you can consolidate these loans with a private lender by refinancing.

Tips for Consolidating Defaulted Student Loans

Wondering how to consolidate defaulted student loans? To consolidate federal student loans, first gather all the documents you need. This includes your personal information such as your name, address, email, Social Security number, and FSA ID; financial information such as your income; and details about your loans, including amounts, account numbers, and loan servicers.

Next, go to studentaid.gov to fill out the Direct Consolidation Loan application. You’ll need your FSA ID to log in. Specify the loans you want to consolidate.

Then, choose one of the income-driven repayment plans if that’s the option you prefer. Review the plans in advance to determine which one is the best option for you.

Filling out the application typically takes less than 30 minutes.

Pros and Cons of Student Loan Consolidation

Choosing to consolidate defaulted student loans has advantages and disadvantages you’ll want to weigh before you move forward.

Advantages include:

•   One loan and one monthly bill. This means there will be less for you to keep track of.

•   Lower payments. When you consolidate, you can choose an income-driven repayment plan or to lengthen the term of your loan, which could lower your monthly payments. (Note: You may pay more interest over the life of the loan if you refinance with an extended term.)

•   Fixed interest rate. You’ll get a fixed interest rate for the life of your loans with Direct Loan Consolidation. The new rate is a weighted average of all your federal loan rates, rounded to the nearest eighth of a percent.

•   Access to forgiveness programs. With a Direct Consolidation Loan, you might be able to get access to programs you weren’t eligible for previously, such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

Disadvantages include:

•   Longer repayment period. You could end up repaying your loans for an extra year or two, which will cost you more overall.

•   Pay more in interest over the life of the loan. With consolidation, the outstanding interest on your loans is added to the principal balance, and interest may accrue on that higher balance.

•   Possible loss of benefits. Consolidating loans other than Direct loans could mean giving up perks you have with those loans, such as rebates or interest rate discounts.

This comparison chart of the pros and cons of student loan consolidation can be helpful as you consider the question of should you refinance or consolidate your loans.

How to Manage Student Loans Without Going Into Default

If you’re struggling to make student loan payments but haven’t yet defaulted on your loan, taking action now could help prevent financial issues in the future. Here are some options that could help you take control of your student loan debt and avoid going into default.

Take Advantage of the Temporary Grace Period

Federal student loan payments and interest accrual has been paused since March 2022 in order to alleviate some of the financial challenges created by the coronavirus pandemic. However, the latest debt ceiling bill officially ended the payment pause, requiring interest to begin accruing again on Sept. 1. and payments to resume on October 1.

The Department of Education understands that restarting student loan payments after such a long pause will put many borrowers in a difficult financial position. So to prevent struggling borrowers from facing the harsh penalties of defaulting on their loans, there will be a 12-month ramp-up period to help borrowers adjust to repayment.

During this period, which takes place from Oct. 1, 2023 to Sept. 30, 2024, federal student loan borrowers who don’t make their payments on time and in full will not be reported to the credit bureaus, have their loans placed in default, or be referred to debt collectors.

Forbearance or Deferment

If you’re unable to make payments on your student loans due to a sudden and temporary economic change, you might consider applying for student loan deferment or forbearance. Both allow you to temporarily pause your loan payments.

If your loans are in forbearance, which is granted for 12 months at a time, you will be responsible for paying accrued interest during the forbearance period. If your loans are placed in deferment, which can last up to three years, you may not be responsible for accrued interest during the deferment period, depending on the type of loan you hold.

While your loans are in deferment or forbearance, you do have the option to make interest-only payments on the loan. If you choose not to, the accrued interest on most loans will be capitalized, or added to the principal balance. You’ll then be charged interest based on the larger loan amount.

Applying for Income-Driven Repayment (IDR)

Another option to help manage your student loans is income-driven repayment. There are four income-driven repayment plans available to federal student loan borrowers. Depending on the type of plan you qualify for, your monthly payments will be anywhere from 10% to 20% of your discretionary income. (Beginning in July 2024, the new SAVE plan will adjust payments to 5% of discretionary income.)

Income-driven repayment plans also stretch out the repayment term of the loan to either 20 or 25 years, depending on the specific plan. This means that while you could pay less per month, income-driven repayment could cost you more in interest over the life of the loan. The good news is that if you have any remaining debt at the end of the term, it will be forgiven (but you may need to pay income taxes on the canceled amount).

Consolidating Your Loans

Even if you’re not in default, you can consolidate your federal loans through the Direct Loan Consolidation program. As mentioned, the new interest rate will be the weighted average of the existing loans, rounded to the nearest eighth of a percent. So you won’t lower your effective interest rate, but you’ll only have to keep track of one monthly payment.

Refinancing Your Loans

If your monthly student loan payments are difficult for you to manage, you could consider refinancing with a private lender. If you have a combination of private and federal student loans, you could refinance both types into a single, private loan.

Refinancing can give you an opportunity to qualify for a lower interest rate or lower monthly payments, and you’ll only have to worry about tracking one payment each month. You may also be able to customize your repayment term — either lengthening or shortening the term.

By lengthening the term, you could reduce your monthly payments, but you may end up spending more money in interest over the life of the loan. To see how refinancing could impact your student loans, plug your numbers into this student loan refinance calculator.

It’s important to note that if you’re thinking of taking advantage of any federal programs such as income-driven repayment or Public Service Loan Forgiveness, refinancing may not be a good idea, as you’ll lose your eligibility for these programs.

Looking to lower your monthly student loan payment? Refinancing may be one way to do it — by extending your loan term, getting a lower interest rate than what you currently have, or both. (Please note that refinancing federal loans makes them ineligible for federal forgiveness and protections. Also, lengthening your loan term may mean paying more in interest over the life of the loan.) SoFi student loan refinancing offers flexible terms that fit your budget.

FAQ

Does consolidating student loans remove default?

No. When you consolidate your student loans, the record of the default will stay on your credit history. Another option is loan rehabilitation, which removes the default from your credit history.

Can you consolidate defaulted student loans?

Yes, you can consolidate defaulted student loans. If you have federal loans, you can consolidate them with Direct Loan Consolidation. To be eligible, you must either make three full, on-time, and consecutive payments on the defaulted loan or agree to make payments on an income-driven repayment plan. You can fill out an application at studentaid.gov. You can consolidate private student loans with a private lender.

Can you refinance student loans that are in default?

You can refinance student loans that are in default, but it may be difficult. That’s because your credit score has likely decreased, which may impact your ability to get approved for refinancing. If you have a family member or friend who is willing to cosign the loan, you may be able to refinance your student loans that way. Or, you could rehabilitate your loans first, which could help improve your odds of being approved for refinancing.

SoFi Student Loan Refinance
SoFi Student Loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891. (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). SoFi Student Loan Refinance Loans are private loans and do not have the same repayment options that the federal loan program offers, or may become available, such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness, Income-Based Repayment, Income-Contingent Repayment, PAYE or SAVE. Additional terms and conditions apply. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal.

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If you’re like many cardholders, you will likely want to take advantage of any opportunities to streamline your finances. A commonly used credit card feature that can make life more convenient is automated credit card payments, or credit card autopay. It’s a way to have your bill paid seamlessly on time so you don’t have to wonder, “Is my credit card payment due around now? Have I already paid it for this month?”

Understanding what autopay is and how it works can help you decide if enrolling in automatic payments is right for you. There are definite benefits to setting up autopay, but there are downsides to take into account as well. You’ll also need to consider how you’d like to configure credit card autopay, as there are a few different options.

In this guide, you’ll learn about all this topic and gain the insight you need to decide if autopay for your credit card is a good fit for you.

What Is an Automated Credit Card Payment and How Does It Work?

An automated credit card payment, or autopay, is a recurring payment that’s scheduled for the same day each month. The automatic payment is typically made on a date that’s either before or on the statement due date.

Autopay allows cardholders the convenience of making credit card payments on a periodic basis without having to manually set up payments. This also helps with avoiding late or missed payments.

When you enroll in automated credit card payments through your credit card issuer, you’re authorizing the issuer to request a certain payment amount on a specific date from your banking institution. When the autopay date arrives, your card issuer’s bank will send your bank an electronic request for the payment amount you’ve set up.

Your bank then will fulfill the payment request and send it to the merchant’s bank (i.e., your card issuer).

Credit Card Autopay Options

There are a few ways to approach automatic bill payments through your card issuer. Each has its benefits and caveats, so assess your own financial situation before choosing an autopay strategy for your credit card.

Paying the Minimum

One option is establishing automated credit card payments for the minimum amount that’s due on your billing statement. The minimum payment is the smaller amount due that’s shown on your statement or online account, and the amount varies based on your total charges at the close of your card’s billing cycle.

Selecting to pay the minimum can be useful if you don’t have enough money to repay the entire statement in one fell swoop. By paying the minimum, you’ll fulfill the issuer’s minimum requested payment and keep your account in good standing — which, in turn, helps keep your credit score in good standing.

However, this means you’ll roll over the remaining statement balance into the next billing period, which will lead to incurring interest charges. That’s one aspect of how credit cards work.

Recommended: What is a Charge Card?

Paying the Full Balance

You also can choose to pay the full balance as shown on the billing statement for each recurring payment. Paying the full balance is beneficial, because it allows you to avoid rolling a balance into the next billing cycle. This, in turn, means you can avoid interest on a credit card.

However, since your balance will likely vary month to month, you need to be sure you have enough cash in your bank account to cover it. Otherwise, you could wind up overdrafting.

Paying a Fixed Amount

Another option is to set up automated credit card payments for a specific, fixed amount. For example, if you exclusively use your card to pay your fixed monthly cell phone bill of $50, you can establish an autopay for $50 toward your account on a recurring schedule. You can also use this option if you’d like to make extra credit card payments throughout the month.

Benefits of Automatic Credit Card Payments

Choosing a credit card that allows autopay can be helpful for various reasons. These are a few of the major upsides to enrolling in automated credit card payments:

•   You won’t risk forgetting about a credit card payment due date.

•   You’ll avoid penalty fees and penalty annual percentage rates (APRs) for making a late payment.

•   Your positive payment history is maintained.

Drawbacks of Automatic Credit Card Payments

There are also some caveats to consider before you set up autopay. This includes the following:

•   You might face other fees if you have insufficient funds when using autopay.

•   You might slack on reviewing your monthly credit card statement for red flags.

•   You might inadvertently overspend on your card because you feel as if you’ve got the payment covered.

Factors to Consider Before Setting up Automatic Credit Card Payments

Before setting up automated credit card payments, honestly assess your finances and habits. Verify that you have sufficient deposits into your checking or savings account to cover the autopay amount you’ve set up.

And if you do set up automatic credit card payments, make sure you continue to check your monthly billing statements. Confirm that all transactions are yours and are accurate, and that your total spending is still manageable.

Setting up Automatic Credit Card Payments

The exact process for how to set up automatic credit card payments can vary somewhat from issuer to issuer, but in general, it’s pretty easy to do.

•   You will need to first log on to your credit card account either online or through the mobile app. It’s also possible to call the number listed on the back of your card to have someone talk you through it.

•   Pull up the section labeled payments, and you should then be able to find an option to manage or set up autopay. You’ll need to connect a bank account where the payments will get pulled from and select the date and frequency at which you’d like the payment to occur.

•   You should also be able to select which payment option you’d like (minimum due, the full balance, or another amount).

💡 Quick Tip: When using your credit card, make sure you’re spending within your means. Ideally, you won’t charge more to your card in any given month than you can afford to pay off that month.

Tips for Stopping Automatic Payments on Credit Card

What if you have credit card autopay activated on your account but need to halt automated payments moving forward? Federal law protects your right to rescind authorization for automatic payments. Here are a few ways to go about it:

•   Turn off autopay through your card issuer. Many credit card issuers give cardholders the ability to turn autopay on or off through the app or via their online account’s payment settings. Just make sure you do so before the next automated payment is processed.

•   Revoke authorization from your card issuer. Call your credit card issuer to revoke authorization for autopay. Then follow up the call with a written letter revoking authorization, and requesting a stop to automatic payments on your account.

•   Request a stop payment order from your bank. You can also contact your bank to place a stop payment order on any automated payment transactions requested by the card issuer.

Regardless of how you stop automated payments from occurring, continue reviewing your monthly statement and account activity to ensure that the autopay has ceased.

What Happens if You Overpay Your Credit Card Balance?

Let’s say you inadvertently set up autopay to higher than the balance — what could you do then? Typically, credit card overpayments are processed as a negative balance. A credit for the overpaid amount should be reflected on the next billing statement, assuming your new transactions bring your account above a zero balance.

However, you do have the right to request a refund from the card issuer, instead of having it applied as a credit. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has in place regulatory credit card rules for card issuers when it comes to an overpayment on your card account. It states that upon receipt of a consumer’s written refund request for an overpayment, an issuer must provide the refund within seven business days.

The Takeaway

Automated credit card payments are a convenient option and can mean one less thing to remember. In addition to helping you keep your card account in good standing, autopay can provide peace of mind. By automating payments, you’ll more easily avoid credit card late payments, penalty fees, and penalty APRs for late payments.

Whether you're looking to build credit, apply for a new credit card, or save money with the cards you have, it's important to understand the options that are best for you. Learn more about credit cards by exploring this credit card guide.

FAQ

Is it a good idea to automate monthly credit card payments?

Whether enrolling in automated credit card payments is a good idea depends on your current financial situation. You must reliably have the payment amount in your checking or savings account each month and not be at risk of overdrawing or having insufficient funds. Also consider your other financial responsibilities and personal money management habits to decide if automated payments are right for you.

Do automatic payments affect your credit score?

Thirty-five percent of your FICO® credit score calculation is based on your payment history. Automatic payments can help you make on-time payments for at least the minimum balance due so your payment history builds or remains positive. As long as the deposit account that automatic payment is drawn from has adequate funds, the credit card autopay transaction can be advantageous to your credit profile.

Do banks charge for automated credit card payments?

No, banks and credit card issuers don’t typically charge an additional fee to make automated credit card payments. Autopay is intended as a payment convenience for cardholders. But ultimately, it helps card issuers and banks better secure repayment from customers, thereby lessening the risk of a late payment or delinquent account.

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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Disclaimer: Many factors affect your credit scores and the interest rates you may receive. SoFi is not a Credit Repair Organization as defined under federal or state law, including the Credit Repair Organizations Act. SoFi does not provide “credit repair” services or advice or assistance regarding “rebuilding” or “improving” your credit record, credit history, or credit rating. For details, see the FTC’s website .

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The yield curve itself is a basic graph of the interest rates paid by bonds at different maturities (e.g., two-year, five-year, 10-year bonds). But many investors interpret the slope of the yield curve as a harbinger of what might lie ahead for the U.S. economy.

The yield curve can be an indicator of economic expectations, but not a reliable predictor of events. That said, analysis of historical data patterns shows that understanding the yield curve can be useful for investors.

4 Types of Yield Curves and What They Mean

The yield curve is published by the Treasury every trading day. It reflects the yield or interest rates paid by Treasury securities for one-month through 30-year maturities. The Treasury’s figures also help to set the rates for other debt securities on the market, as well as mortgages and other loan rates offered by banks.

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What is a yield curve, and what does it look like? Here are four common yield-curve patterns and what each might mean for investors.

1. Normal Yield Curve

Under ordinary conditions, longer-maturity bonds will offer a higher yield to maturity than shorter-term bonds. For that reason, the “normal” yield curve shape has an upward slope, with longer-maturity debt providing investors with higher interest rates.

For example, imagine that a two-year bond offers a yield of 0.5%, a five-year bond offers 1.0%, a 10-year offers 1.8%, and a 30-year offers a yield of 2.5%. When these points are connected on a graph, they exhibit a shape of a normal yield curve. It is the most common type of curve, and tends to indicate a positive economic outlook.

2. Steep Yield Curve

Just as a normal upward-sloping bond yield curve is associated with periods of economic expansion, a steep yield curve is seen by investors as an even stronger sign of economic growth on the horizon — as future yields rise higher to take possible inflation into account.

Another reason that a steep yield curve might indicate periods of stronger growth is that lenders are willing to make short-term loans for relatively low interest rates, which tends to stimulate economic activity and growth.

In late 2008, the yield curve became notably steeper, as the Federal Reserve eased the money supply in response to the financial crisis. A bull market followed that lasted over a decade, from 2009 to 2020.

3. Inverted Yield Curve

Bond yield curves aren’t always normal or upward-sloping. With an inverted yield curve, for instance, the yields for shorter-term debt are higher than the yields for longer-term debt. A quick look at an inverted yield curve will show it curving downward as bond maturities lengthen, which can be a sign of economic contraction.

Since 1955, an inverted yield curve has preceded most, if not all U.S. recessions that have occurred. Usually, the curve inverts about two years before a recession hits, so it can be an early warning sign.

The reason is that, historically, an inverted yield curve can reflect significant shifts in the economy or financial markets. The yield curve might invert because investors expect longer-maturity bonds to offer lower rates in the future, for example. One reason for those lower yields is that often during an economic downturn investors will seek out safe investments in the form of longer-duration bonds, which has the effect of bidding down the yields that those bonds offer.

Inverted yield curves are uncommon, and sometimes decades will pass between them. In October 2007, the yield curve flattened (which can precede an inverted yield curve) precipitating the global financial crisis.

4. Flat and Humped Yield Curves

There are also flat or humped bond yield curves, in which the yields of shorter- and longer-term bonds are very similar. While a flat yield curve is self-explanatory, a humped yield curve is one in which bonds with intermediate maturities may offer slightly higher yields. Those higher yields in the middle give the curve its hump.

Investors see flat or humped yield curves as a sign of a coming shift in the broader economy. They often occur at the end of a period of strong economic growth, as it begins to spur inflation and slow down. But these yield curves don’t always portend a downturn.

Sometimes a flat or humped bond yield curve may appear when the markets expect a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates. Flat and humped markets can also emerge during periods of extreme uncertainty, when investors and lenders want similar yields regardless of the duration of the debt.

What Is the Current Yield Curve?

When investors ask, What is the yield curve?, it’s important to remember that it’s not a fixed market factor, but one that changes daily.

Here’s an example: On October 5, 2021, the three-month Treasury bill paid an interest rate of 0.04%, while the two-year bond paid an interest rate of 0.28%, the five-year bond paid an interest rate of 0.98%, the 10-year bond paid an interest rate of 1.54%, and the 30-year bond paid an interest rate of 2.10%.

The yield curve on that day, with lower short-term yields that rise as the duration of the debt security grows longer, is a good example of a “normal” yield curve.

The difference between the 0.04% yield offered by the three-month T-bill and the 2.10% yield offered by the 30-year bond on Oct. 5, 2021, was 2.06%. At the beginning of August, the three-month Treasury bill paid an interest rate of 0.05%, while the 30-year Treasury bill paid an interest rate of 1.86%. The difference at that time was 1.81%. So it would be accurate to say that the yield curve is normal, and grew somewhat steeper over the course of about two months.

Recommended: What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills) and How Can You Buy Them?

How Investors Can Interpret the Yield Curve

The yield curve has value for investors as an indicator of a host of economic factors, including inflation, growth, and investor sentiment. While it can’t be used to make exact predictions, the yield curve can help investors anticipate potential economic changes, and weigh their financial choices in light of this. The yield curve can’t necessarily help investors choose individual stocks, but it can be of use when formulating broad investment strategies.

For example, if a flat or inverted yield curve indicates the possibility of an economic slowdown, then it might be a good time to purchase the stocks of companies that have historically done well during economic downturns, such as providers of consumer staples.

But if the yield curve is steep – indicating economic growth and higher interest rates – it may be worth considering adding more luxury-goods makers and entertainment companies to your portfolio.

The yield curve also has ramifications for real estate investors. A flat or inverted curve could warn of a slowdown and a drop for current real estate prices. But a steepening of the yield curve can mean just the opposite for real estate.

Changes to the yield curve have the most profound implications for fixed-income investors, however, as steep yield curves indicate that inflation is on the way. And inflation has the effect of eroding the yields on existing bonds, as the purchasing power of those yields goes down.


💡 Quick Tip: How do you decide if a certain trading platform or app is right for you? Ideally, the investment platform you choose offers the features that you need for your investment goals or strategy, e.g., an easy-to-use interface, data analysis, educational tools.


Fixed-income investors also face unique challenges in the rare event of a yield curve inversion. Many investors are accustomed to earning a higher yield in exchange for longer debt maturities, but in an inverted curve, they can no longer find that premium. As a result, many of these investors will opt for shorter-term debt instruments, which offer competitive rates, instead of getting locked into the low rates offered by longer-term bonds.

Recommended: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Investments

The Takeaway

The yield curve may be just a basic graph of the interest rates paid by bonds of different maturities, but historical data shows that the yield curve can also be a useful economic indicator for investors. You don’t want to take it too far and assume the yield curve can predict economic events, but since the yield curve is published every day by the U.S. Treasury, it can capture certain economic shifts in real time.

With a normal yield curve, short-term bond rates are lower than long-term bond rates, and the curve swoops upward — which is a positive economic indicator, suggesting steady economic growth and investor sentiment. When short- and longer-term bond rates are similar, and the yield curve flattens, that can indicate that some economic changes may be afoot. Historically, when the yield curve inverts and short-term bond rates are higher than long-term rates, that can signal a recession might be down the road.

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