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Financial markets are notoriously fickle. Trying to time the market is a difficult task that few non-professional investors do with repeatable success. Still, there are some ways to make more educated investment picks based on publicly available data.

Once an investor selects which securities to buy, how do they decide a good price to enter into a trade at? One of the simpler ways to make a more informed decision regarding when to buy or sell a stock involves using trend indicators.

Trend indicators give investors a sense about which direction the market has moved and for how long it has been heading that way. Trend analyses aim to anticipate futures based on previous patterns in buying, selling, and pricing over time.

Understanding Trend Indicators

Trend indicators are an aspect of technical analysis. Technical analysis uses either computer-generated mathematical information (indicators) or looking for visible patterns in the charts of stock prices.

This investment approach isn’t guaranteed and doesn’t always boost investors’ returns. But, trend analysis can provide investors with one way to try to appraise the market’s next move.

Although technical analysis involves the use of objective data rooted in mathematics and historical price movements, this kind of analysis also relies on human interpretation of that data.

So, it can be said that using indicators and patterns involves aspects of both art (aka interpretation and intuition) and science (aka data and math).

Commonly Used Trend Indicators

Here’s an overview of five commonly used trend indicators that investors may want to look into:

1. Moving Averages

A “moving average” (aka MA) is defined as the mean of time series data. In finance, this technical trading term means the average price of a security (aka a monetary instrument, like stocks, with monetary value)—as calculated over a certain timeframe.

When prices begin trading above a moving average, this can sometimes be seen as a bullish signal, but doesn’t always produce reliable returns over time. A much stronger signal comes when two moving averages of different time lengths cross paths.

When a shorter-time-frame moving average crosses above a longer-time-frame moving average, the move is referred to as a “golden cross.” The general consensus among traders is that the most significant golden cross involves the 50-day MA moving above the 200-day MA. Put another way, it’s when a security’s short-term average is heading above it’s long-term valuation average.

While a single moving average can convey some important information, MAs can be much more useful when used in conjunction with additional MAs of different lengths or with other trend-following indicators.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (aka RSI) provides insight into whether a security might be overvalued or undervalued. This indicator oscillates between extremes, which is a fancy way of saying that it moves up and down.

The RSI is as straightforward as they come. It’s represented by a single line plotted on a graph with values that range from 0 to 100.

The higher the Relative Strength Index value, the more overbought a security is thought to be. In contrast, lower values are generally thought to indicate oversold conditions. So, for some investors, a low reading on the RSI could signal a potential buying opportunity.

Just how low should this indicator drop before it can be considered a buy signal? The answer to this question might depend on who you ask.

Fortunately, there is an easy way to estimate when the RSI becomes overextended in either direction. Between 30 and 70 is a shaded area sometimes called “the paint.” When the line breaches this zone, it’s thought that trading momentum in a given security has begun to reach its limits, and a trend reversal could be in the cards soon.

In other words:

•  an RSI reading of below 30 is generally thought to indicate oversold conditions, meaning prices could be getting ready to move higher sometime soon.
•  An RSI above 70 is generally thought to indicate overbought conditions, meaning a move downward could be coming soon.

As with most other trend following indicators, the RSI works best when used in conjunction with other metrics of a stock’s overall trading sentiment.

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (aka MACD) illustrates the relationship between two moving averages. While the Relative Strength Index (aka RSI) noted above tracks changes in pricing in a single stock or asset (typically represented as a fluctuating line graph), the MACD shows two lines in addition to a histogram that indicates trend strength.

This indicator is used in a similar way as the RSI, although there is a little more information contained in the MACD. Both indicators are known as momentum indicators because they try to gauge the strength of a trend.

Whereas the RSI oscillates between 0 and 100 based on average price gains and losses over a set period, the MACD measures the relationship between two exponential moving averages.

Subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA is how the MACD is calculated. This calculation results in the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, which is often referred to as the “signal line,” is shown on top of the MACD line. The lines are plotted atop a histogram meant to give traders an idea of momentum strength.

As with most trend indicators, there are multiple ways to interpret the MACD. One of the most common interpretations involves the MACD crossing its signal line.

A cross above the signal line is considered to be a potential buy signal, while a cross below the signal line is considered to be a potential sell signal.

4. On Balance Volume (OBV)

On balance volume (OBV) is a measurement of the selling and buying pressure on a given security. Volume gets added on up days and subtracted on down days.

On a day when the security closes at a higher price than its previous closing price, all of that day’s volume is considered upward volume. When the security closes lower than its previous closing price, that day’s volume is considered downward volume.

The numerical value of the OBV isn’t really important – it’s the direction that counts. Declining volume tends to indicate declining momentum and price weakness, while increasing volume tends to indicate rising momentum and price strength.

While the RSI is an indicator that signals bullishness when weak, OBV works in the opposite way. One of the most striking signs of a potential pullback in price can be seen using OBV. This can happen when the price of a security continues making higher highs even as OBV stalls or begins declining.

When this happens, it’s referred to as a negative divergence, and may mean that fewer traders are pouring money into a trade—potentially indicating that prices could start falling.

Here are a few other quick notes about OBV:

•  When both OBV and price make higher highs and higher lows, there’s a higher likelihood that the upward trend may continue.
•  When both OBV and price make lower highs and lower lows, it’s likely the trend could continue.
•  When prices are confined to a tight range, and OBV is rising, this may signal a period of accumulation. An upward breakout could be on the horizon.
•  When prices are confined to a tight range, and OBV is falling, this may signal a period of distribution. A downward breakout could be on the horizon.

5. Average Directional Movement Index (ADX)

The ADX is another trend indicator that aims to measure trend strength. It works by averaging the differences in price range over time. So, if an asset’s price barely move from day-to-day, the ADX will show a lower reading—while a big change in price will show a higher reading.

The Average Directional Movement Index is represented by a simple line graph beneath a stock chart. This trend line is even easier to use than most. It’s thought that an ADX above 25 indicates a strong trend and an ADX below 20 indicates little to no trend.

Here are some notes about potential ways to interpret the ADX:

•  When the ADX nosedives from a high point, it could signal a coming trend reversal.
•  A downward trend in the ADX could suggest that trends are dissipating overall. And, so, using any trend-following indicators could prove less reliable.
•  If the ADX rises by 5 points or more after a long period of staying low, this could be interpreted as a trade signal (a time to potentially buy or sell, depending on the direction of price movement).
•  A rising ADK generally means the market is entering into a stronger trend. The slope of the ADX line will be steeper when prices change faster. Steady, gradual trends tend to lead to a flattening of the ADX.

Keeping Tabs on Market Trends

There’s an old saying among traders—“the trend is your friend.”

Simply put, trends tend to keep moving in a certain direction when they have enough momentum. That’s why traders try to take note of them by studying trend-following indicators.

Trend indicators are a key way that many traders try to discern things like:

•  Which way a trend is moving
•  How strong that momentum is
•  How long the trend is likely to continue.

Some traders even go as far as trying to pick the exact time when a trend will change, using advanced strategies like options and futures contracts to try and profit from market volatility.

For most novice investors, adopting this kind of exact-timed technical strategy could prove highly risky, and might not always be necessary to earn returns over time. Individual investors might find it easier to use trend indicators to try determine when to buy and sell orders.

Whether an investor is brand new to the markets or has been building a portfolio for years, SoFi Invest® lets users take care of their investment needs in one secure app – including, trading stocks, buying crypto, and automated investing.

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With Americans facing over $1.6 trillion in combined student loan balances, many borrowers are on the hunt for ways to ease their debt burden. One option you may have seen was called the Obama Student Loan Forgiveness Plan, which according to some websites, was a way for some borrowers to escape their debt for a small fee.

This offer might sound appealing, but there’s one problem: It’s fake. It’s just one example of real ads that scammers have used to target and bilk borrowers.

Fraudsters have used lines like this to lure in their marks, then charged them hefty fees to fill out forms they could’ve filled out themselves for free. In the worst cases, people end up paying for nonexistent services.

Here are some answers to your burning questions on student loan forgiveness, so you can get a better idea of how the program works:

Does Any Student Loan Forgiveness Act Exist?

Yes. The Student Loan Forgiveness Act (SLFA) was a congressional bill introduced in 2012 intended to help borrowers with paying down their student debt.

In addition to capping interest rates for all federal loans, the proposed law would have introduced a repayment plan that allows borrowers to have their loans forgiven after 10 years if they made monthly payments equivalent to 10% of their adjusted gross income. The bill also would have made borrowers in public service jobs eligible for loan forgiveness after five years, instead of 10.

Sound too good to be true? It was. The bill never made it out of committee.

So, What is Obama’s New Student Loan Forgiveness Program?

Even though you may have heard about it, “Obama’s new student loan forgiveness program” doesn’t exist. During his tenure, President Obama did expand the reach of federal loan forgiveness programs. A bill he signed in 2010 allowed students who took out certain federal loans to have their balances forgiven in 20 years, rather than 25.

The same bill capped annual payments at 10% of adjusted gross income, rather than 15%. It also ushered in loan forgiveness after 10 years for borrowers working in qualified public service jobs.

Those changes preceded the introduction of the Student Loan Forgiveness Act (SLFA), and was never officially called “Obama’s Student Loan Forgiveness Program.” Likewise, there is no “new” student loan forgiveness program in Obama’s name, either, obviously.

Then Why Have I Read About Obama’s New Student Loan Forgiveness Program?

Because it’s a term that debt relief companies use to confuse student loan borrowers. The name seems convincing since President Obama did take action on federal student loans and legitimate federal loan forgiveness programs exist. That’s why some borrowers have been duped into paying high fees for pointless—or nonexistent—services. Don’t be fooled: The program isn’t real!

Debt relief companies advertising the “Student Loan Forgiveness Act” or “Obama’s New Student Loan Forgiveness Program” are bad news. Understanding which programs are real and which are fake can help you avoid being scammed—and find legitimate ways to actually have some of your student loans forgiven.

What Are Some Legitimate Options for Student Loan Forgiveness?

No, Obama’s Student Loan Forgiveness Act never passed. However, there are several real options for having federal student loans forgiven.

In fact, in response to the coronavirus epidemic, the CARES Act suspended federal student loan interest and payment suspension through September 2020. (Update: The pause on federal student loan repayment has been extended through Dec. 31, 2022)

The pending HEROES Act (narrowly passed by the House in mid-May, 2020) proposed $10,000 each of federal student loan AND private student loans forgiveness initially but may have more stringent eligibility requirements if passed by the Senate. While it’s definitely something to keep an eye on, here are some existing programs that may be helpful.

Income-Driven Repayment Plans

The government currently offers four income-driven repayment plans for federal student loans that can forgive borrowers’ balances after 20 or 25 years.

There are eligibility requirements, like making required monthly payments for a designated period of time, which are tied to a person’s income. The plans a borrower qualifies for will depend on the types of loans they have and when they took them out.

These student loan repayment plans are based on borrowers’ discretionary income, or the amount they earn after subtracting necessary expenses like taxes, shelter, and food. Here is a brief overview of each one:

•   Revised Pay As You Earn Repayment Plan (REPAYE): Borrowers’ monthly payment is typically 10% of their income. If all loans were taken out for undergraduate studies, they’ll make payments for 20 years; if they also took out loans for graduate or professional studies, they’ll make payments for 25 years. At the end of 20 or 25 years, the remaining amount will be forgiven.
•   Pay As You Earn Repayment Plan (PAYE): People pay up to 10% of their discretionary income each month, but they never pay more than they would under the 10-year Standard Repayment Plan. After 20 years, the remaining debt will be forgiven.
•   Income-Based Repayment Plan (IBR): People will pay 10% of their discretionary income for 20 years if they became a new borrower on or after July 1, 2014, and 15% for 25 years if they were a borrower before July 1, 2014. They will never pay more than they would under the 10-year Standard Repayment Plan. Borrowers’ debt will be forgiven after either 20 or 25 years.
•   Income-Contingent Repayment Plan (ICR): Borrowers choose whichever repayment plan is cheaper—20% of their discretionary income or what they would pay if they spread their payments out equally over 12 years. Any remaining balance will be forgiven after 25 years.

These four plans are designed to help borrowers make monthly payments they can actually afford. Some people may assume that an income-driven repayment plan that results in forgiveness is best for them, when in reality, this might not be the case.

Note that if the remaining balance of your loan is forgiven, you may be responsible for paying income taxes on that amount.

A repayment calculator can be a useful tool to help determine enrolling in an income-based forgiveness program that would be beneficial. After a borrower plugs in their information, they could discover that they would pay less, in the long run, should they enroll in, say, the government’s Standard Repayment Plan.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness

Borrowers can have their loans forgiven in 10 years under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program. To potentially qualify, they must work full-time for a qualified government organization, nonprofit, or certain public-interest employers, such as a public interest law firm, public library, or public health provider.

Over those 10 years, borrowers must make 120 qualifying monthly payments, and the payment amount is based on their income. Those 120 payments don’t necessarily have to be consecutive. For example, let’s say a borrower works for the local government for three years, then switches to the private sector for a year.

If they decide to go back into public service after that year, they can pick up where they left off with payments rather than start all over.

The PSLF program can be difficult to qualify for, but some people have successfully enrolled. As of March 2020, 145,758 borrowers had applied for the program. Only 3,174 applications were accepted. 171,321 applications had been rejected, and the remaining applications were still processing.

Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program

Qualifying teachers can also get up to $17,500 of their federal loans forgiven after five years teaching full-time under the Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program. The American Federation of Teachers has a searchable database of state and local loan forgiveness programs.

To qualify for the full amount, teachers must either teach math or science at the secondary level, or teach special education at the elementary or secondary level. Otherwise, borrowers can have up to $5,000 forgiven if they are a full-time teacher at the elementary or secondary level.

NURSE Corps Loan Repayment Program

Health professionals have access to other loan assistance programs. The federal government’s NURSE Corps Loan Repayment Program pays up to 85% of eligible nurses’ unpaid debt for nursing school.

To receive loan forgiveness, borrowers must serve for two years in a Critical Shortage Facility or work as nurse faculty in an accredited school of nursing.

After two years, 60% of their nursing loans will be forgiven. If a borrower applies and is accepted for a third year, an additional 25% of their original loan amount will be forgiven, coming to a total of 85%.

Borrowers interested in the NURSE Corps Loan Repayment Program can read about what qualifies as a Critical Shortage Facility or an eligible school of nursing before applying.

Indian Health Services’ Loan Repayment Program

The Indian Health Services’ Loan Repayment Program will repay up to $40,000 in qualifying loans for doctors, nurses, psychologists, dentists, and other professionals who spend two years working in health facilities serving American Indian or Alaska Native communities.

Once a borrower completes their initial two years, they may choose to extend their contract each year until their student loans are completely forgiven.

In 2019, the Indian Health Service’s budget allows for up to 384 new awards for two-year contracts, and around 392 awards for one-year contract extensions. The average award for a one-year extension is $24,840 in 2019.

Even those who aren’t typical medical professionals, like doctors or nurses, may still qualify. The IHS has also provided awards to people in other fields, such as social work, dietetics, and environmental engineering.

The National Health Service Corps

The National Health Service Corps offers up to $50,000 for loan repayment to medical, dental, and mental health practitioners who spend two years working in underserved areas.

Loan forgiveness programs are generally available for federal loans, as opposed to private ones. In rare cases, such as school closure while a student is enrolled or soon after, they could qualify to have their loan discharged or canceled.

Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) include facilities such as correctional facilities, state mental hospitals, federally qualified health centers, and Indian health facilities, just to name a few. Each HPSA receives a score depending on how great the site’s need is.

Scores range from 0 to 25 for primary care and mental health, and 0 to 26 for dental care. The higher the score, the greater the need.

Borrowers have the option to enroll in either a full-time or part-time position, but people working in private practice must work full-time. Full-time health professionals may receive awards up to $50,000 if they work at a site with a score of at least 14, and up to $30,000 if the site’s score is 13 or below. Half-time employees will receive up to $25,000 if their site’s score is at least 14, and up to $15,000 if the score is 13 or lower.

Interested in learning more about your options for student loan repayment? Check out SoFi’s student loan help center to get the answers you need about your student debt. The help center explains student loan jargon in terms people can understand, provides loan calculators, and even offers student loan refinancing to hopefully land borrowers lower rates.

Refinancing student loans through a private lender can disqualify people from enrolling in federal loan forgiveness programs and loan forgiveness programs, and disqualifies them from CARES Act forbearance and interest rate benefits.

SoFi Student Loan Refinance
SoFi Student Loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891. (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). SoFi Student Loan Refinance Loans are private loans and do not have the same repayment options that the federal loan program offers, or may become available, such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness, Income-Based Repayment, Income-Contingent Repayment, PAYE or SAVE. Additional terms and conditions apply. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal.

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Student loans can have a way of making you feel like a hamster in a wheel—spinning like crazy but getting nowhere fast. And while knowing that around 44 million Americans carry student loan debt might offer some comfort in a “misery loves company” kind of way, the magical loan-forgiveness fairy is still—as far as we know—a myth.

In the meantime, though, there’s a bit of good news—you may have more control than you think. We are here to help illuminate some options available to student loan holders, so they can make decisions that fit best with their financial goals.

Have you been considering one of those options—choosing whether to consolidate or refinance student loans?

But what is consolidation, what is refinancing, and how do you know which one (if either) may be right for you?

This could be a somewhat complicated question, especially since these terms are sometimes used interchangeably. For example, consolidation simply means combining multiple student loans into one loan, but you have different options and can end up with different results by consolidating with the federal government vs. consolidating with a private lender.

Student loan refinancing is when you receive a loan with new terms and use that loan to pay off one or more existing student loans.

Consolidate vs. Refinance. Let’s break it down.

Here’s a simple overview of the different types of student loan consolidation, how they differ from student loan refinancing, and some tips for evaluating whether one of these options might work for you.

Federal Student Loan Consolidation

Federal student loan consolidation is offered by the government and is available for most types of federal student loans—no private loans allowed. When you consolidate with the government, your existing federal loans are combined into one new loan with a new rate, which is a weighted average of your old loans’ rates (rounded up to the nearest eighth of a percent).

This option may not save you any money, but there are still a few potential benefits:

1. Fewer bills and payments to keep track of each month.

2. The ability to switch out older, variable rate federal loans for one, new, fixed rate loan, which could protect you from having to pay higher rates in the future if interest rates go up. (Note: the last variable rate federal student loans were disbursed in 2006. Since then, all federal student loans have been fixed-rate.)

3. Lower monthly payments. But beware—this is usually the result of lengthening your repayment term, which means you might pay more interest over the life of the loan.

Private Loan Consolidation

Like federal consolidation, a private consolidation loan allows you to combine multiple loans into one, and offers some of the same potential benefits listed above. However, the interest rate on your new, consolidated loan is not a weighted average of your old loans’ rates.

Instead, a private lender will look at your track record of managing credit and other personal financial information when deciding whether to give you a new (ideally lower) interest rate on your new consolidation loan.

Bottom line: when you consolidate student loans with a private lender, you are also in fact refinancing those loans. When federal student loans are consolidated or paid off using a private loan, however, it’s important to know you will lose access to certain benefits such as income-driven repayment plans, forbearance and deferment options, and Public Service Loan Forgiveness (among others).

Student Loan Refinancing

As noted above, student loan refinancing is when a new loan from a private lender is used to pay off one or more existing student loans. If your financial situation has improved since you first signed on the dotted line for your original student loans(s), you may be able to refinance student loans at a lower interest rate and/or a different loan term, which could potentially allow you to do one or more of the following:

1. Lower your monthly payments.

2. Shorten your loan term to pay off debt sooner.

3. Reduce the money you spend in interest over the life of the loan.

4. Choose a variable interest rate loan, which can be a cost-saving option for those who plan to pay off their loan relatively quickly.

5. Enjoy the benefits of consolidation, including one simplified monthly bill.

Unlike federal loan consolidation, student loan refinancing is only available from private lenders. However, SoFi will refinance both private student loans and federal student loans, so well-qualified borrowers can consolidate all of their loans into one with loans and/or terms that work better for them.

Things to Consider

While there are advantages to both consolidation and refinancing, sometimes the answer—depending on timing, your budget, or other outside factors—could be to leave well enough alone. As you research your options, consider asking yourself these questions:

What kind of student loans do you have?

Refinancing federal student loans through a private lender might result in a lower interest rate, but you will also lose access to the benefits that come with federal loans, such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF), flexible repayment plans, the ability to pause payments, and an interest rate that’s determined by Congress—not your credit score.

If your loans are private, they were issued based on creditworthiness to begin with, so a refinanced loan will follow similar qualifications, and each private lender will have its own underwriting criteria.

What is the loan payoff amount?

While the amount of a monthly payment is important, especially if a refinance could reduce it, it’s wise to read through all the terms of the loan to understand the big picture.

Are the monthly payments lower because the loan is now on a 20-year term instead of a 10-year term? Are there loan origination fees rolled into the payment? Knowing the full, total repayment amount can help ensure that short-term gains don’t bite you in the long run.

What’s the goal?

Consider your reasons for a refinance or consolidation—lowering monthly payments, keeping better track of due dates, or paying off debt as quickly as possible will likely lead to different strategies.

Your monthly budget and what you can (and can’t) afford to put toward your loan repayment will also play a factor here. One way to help ensure the right decision for you is to play with your budget a bit to see which loan options might benefit you most.

What factors do lenders review?

This isn’t typically an issue when it comes to consolidating loans through the federal government. But people interested in refinancing student loans with a private lender will likely need to meet various lender requirements, much like they would for a mortgage or personal loan.

Lenders generally review information like the borrower’s credit history, income, debt-to-income ratio, and other factors to determine what type of interest rate and loan terms they may qualify for.

You may not be able to change the fact that you have student loans, but you can make smart decisions about them. And that’s what ultimately gives you power over your debt. For more information about student loans, you can explore SoFi’s student loan help center to find guidance and gain knowledge to help point you in the right direction.

$500 Student Loan Refinancing Bonus Offer: Terms and conditions apply. Offer is subject to lender approval, and not available to residents of Ohio. The offer is only open to new Student Loan Refinance borrowers. To receive the offer you must: (1) register and apply through the unique link provided by 11:59pm ET 11/30/2021; (2) complete and fund a student loan refinance application with SoFi before 11/14/2021; (3) have or apply for a SoFi Money account within 60 days of starting your Student Loan Refinance application to receive the bonus; and (4) meet SoFi’s underwriting criteria. Once conditions are met and the loan has been disbursed, your welcome bonus will be deposited into your SoFi Money account within 30 calendar days. If you do not qualify for the SoFi Money account, SoFi will offer other payment options. Bonuses that are not redeemed within 180 calendar days of the date they were made available to the recipient may be subject to forfeit. Bonus amounts of $600 or greater in a single calendar year may be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as miscellaneous income to the recipient on Form 1099-MISC in the year received as required by applicable law. Recipient is responsible for any applicable federal, state, or local taxes associated with receiving the bonus offer; consult your tax advisor to determine applicable tax consequences. SoFi reserves the right to change or terminate the offer at any time with or without notice.

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SoFi Student Loan Refinance
SoFi Student Loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891. (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). SoFi Student Loan Refinance Loans are private loans and do not have the same repayment options that the federal loan program offers, or may become available, such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness, Income-Based Repayment, Income-Contingent Repayment, PAYE or SAVE. Additional terms and conditions apply. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal.

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