What Is Earnings Season?

What Is Earnings Season?

Earnings season is the period of time when publicly-traded companies release their quarterly earnings reports, as required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Earnings season is important for investors because it provides insight into a company’s financial health and performance.

The financial results reported during an earnings season can help investors and analysts understand a company’s prospects, how a specific industry is performing, or the state of the overall economy. Knowing when earnings season is can help investors stay up to date on this information and make better investment decisions.

When Is Earnings Season?

Earnings season, again, is a period during which public companies release quarterly earnings reports, and it occurs four times a year – generally starting within a few weeks after the close of each quarter and lasting for about six weeks. For example, the earnings season for the first quarter, which ends on March 31, would typically begin in the second week of April and wrap up at the end of May.

Earnings season normally follows this timeline:

•   First quarter: Mid-April through the end of May

•   Second quarter: Mid-July through the end of August

•   Third quarter: Mid-October through the end of November

•   Fourth quarter: Mid-January through the end of February

Note, however, that not all companies report earnings on this schedule. Companies with a fiscal year that doesn’t follow the traditional calendar year may release their earnings on a different schedule.

Many retail companies, for instance, have fiscal years that end on January 31 rather than December 31, so they can capture the results from the holiday shopping season into their annual reports. Thus, these firms may report their earnings toward the end of earnings season, or even after the typical earnings reporting period.

Investors interested in knowing when companies will report earnings can check each companies’ investor relations page, or other websites to see the earnings calendars.

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Why Is Earnings Season Important for Investors?

Earnings season is an important time for investors to track a company’s or industry’s performance and better understand its financial health.

During earnings season, companies release their quarterly earnings reports, which are financial statements that lay out the revenue, expenses, and profits. This information gives investors a better understanding of how a company is operating.

Moreover, earnings season is also when companies provide guidance for the upcoming quarters, sometimes during the company’s quarterly earnings call. This guidance can give investors an idea of what to expect from a company in the future and help them make more informed investment decisions, especially if investors use fundamental analysis to choose stocks.

💡 Recommended: The Ultimate List of Financial Ratios

The following are some additional effects of earnings season:

Volatility

You may notice fluctuations in your portfolio during earnings seasons because of stock volatility. The release of earnings reports can significantly impact a company’s stock price. If a company reports better or worse than expected earnings, for example, it may result in a spike or dip in share price.

And even if a company surpasses expectations for a given quarter, its forward-looking outlook may disappoint investors, causing them to sell and drive down its price. For this reason, earnings season is often a period of high volatility for the stock market as a whole.

Investment Opportunities

Many investors closely watch earnings reports to make investment decisions, especially traders with a short-term focus who hope to take advantage of price fluctuations before or after a company’s earnings report.

And investors with a long-term focus may pay attention to earnings season because it can give clues about a company’s future prospects. For example, if a company’s earnings are consistently increasing, it may be a suitable medium- to long-term investment. On the other hand, if a company’s earnings are decreasing quarter after quarter, it may mean that it is a stock investors want to avoid.

State of the Economy

Earnings season can help investors and analysts get a better picture of the overall economy. If most earnings reports are coming in below expectations or companies are revising their financial outlooks because they see trouble in the economy, it could be a predictor of an economic downturn or a recession.

And even if the overall economy is not at risk of a downturn, earnings season can help investors see trouble in a specific sector or industry if companies in a given industry report weaker than expected earnings.

Earnings season may give investors a holistic view of the state of the stock market and economy and help them make better investment decisions than focusing on specific stocks alone.

The Takeaway

Earnings season provides investors with valuable insights into the performance and outlook of specific companies, the stock market, and the economy as a whole. However, for most investors with a long-term focus, each earnings season shouldn’t be something that causes you too much stress.

Even if some of your holdings spike or plummet because of an earnings report during earnings season, it doesn’t mean you want to make a rash investment decision based on a single quarter’s results. You still want to keep long-term performance in mind.

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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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What Is Portfolio Margin?

What Is Portfolio Margin?

Portfolio margin is a way of calculating the margin requirements for derivatives traders using a composite view of their portfolio. Portfolio margin accounts offset investors’ positive and losing positions to calculate their real-time margin requirements. Portfolio margining may provide investors with lower margin requirements, allowing them to use more of their capital in trades.

Key Points

•   Portfolio margin calculates margin requirements using a risk-based approach, potentially lowering requirements and freeing up capital.

•   It assesses a portfolio’s risk, considering market volatility and theoretical price changes.

•   Traders must maintain a $100,000 net liquidating value and get approval for margin trading.

•   The Chicago Board of Options Exchange sets rules, and brokers use the TIMS model for daily risk assessment.

•   Margin trading is risky and not recommended for beginners, but it can increase buying power for experienced investors.

Portfolio Margin, Defined

Portfolio margin is a type of risk-based margin used with qualified derivative accounts. It calculates a trader’s real-time portfolio margin requirements based on a risk assessment of their portfolio or marginable securities.

If a trader has a well-hedged portfolio they will have a lower margin trading requirement, allowing them to utilize more of their cash for trades and take advantage of more leverage. Of course the more margin a trader uses, the higher their risk of loss.

How Does Portfolio Margin Work?

Investors with qualified accounts where they trade derivatives including options, swaps, and futures contracts must maintain a certain composite-margin. Portfolio margin is a policy with a set of requirements that aim to reduce risk for the lender.

To determine portfolio margin, the lender consolidates the long and short positions held in different derivatives against one another. This works by calculating the overall risk of an investor’s portfolio and adjusting margin requirements accordingly.

The portfolio margin policy requirement must equal the amount of liability that remains once all the investor’s offsetting (long and short) positions have been netted against one another. Usually portfolio margin requirements are lower for hedged positions than they are with other policy requirements.

For example, the liability of a losing position in an investor’s portfolio could be offset if they hold a large enough net positive position in another derivative.

Margin vs Portfolio Margin

Here’s a closer look at how margin vs. portfolio margin compare when online investing, or investing with a broker.

Margin

Margin is the amount of cash, or collateral, that investors must deposit when they enter into a margin trade. Margin accounts work by allowing a trader to borrow money from their broker or exchange. By borrowing cash to cover part of the trade, an investor can enter into much larger positions than they could if they only used cash on hand.

Borrowing money, however, poses a risk to the lender. For this reason, the lender requires that traders hold a certain amount of liquid cash in their account to remain in margin trades. If a trader loses money on a position, the broker can then claim cash from the trader’s account to cover the loss.

Traditional margin loans under Regulation T require investors to put up a certain percentage of cash for margin trades based on the amount of the trade.

Portfolio Margin

Portfolio margin, on the other hand, calculates the required deposit amount based on the risk level of the investor’s overall portfolio. It looks at the net exposure of all the investor’s positive and losing positions. If a derivative investor has a well-hedged portfolio, their margin requirement can be much lower than it would be with traditional margin policies.

This chart spells out the differences:

Regulation T Margin

Portfolio Margin

Maintenance margin = 50% of initial margin Initial and maintenance margin is the same
Traders can’t use margin on long options, and long options have a 100% requirement Traders can use margin on long options, and they can use long options as collateral for other marginable trades
Margin requirements are fixed percentages Trader’s overall portfolio is evaluated by offsetting positions against one another
Margin equity = stock + (+/- cash balance) Buying power (maintenance excess) = net liquidation value – margin requirements
Less flexibility on margin requirements Broad-based indices allow for more leverage
Margin requirement is a fixed percentage of trade amounts Stock volatility and hypothetical future scenarios are part of portfolio margin calculation

Portfolio Margin and Volatility

Portfolio margin calculations take into account investing in volatile markets by factoring in the outcome of various scenarios.

Portfolio Margin Calculation

Calculating portfolio margin is a multi-step process. The calculation includes hypothetical market volatility and theoretical price changes.

The steps are:

1.    Create a set of theoretical price changes across the trader’s margin account. These ranges may be different when trading options, stocks, and indices.

2.    Divide the range and calculate the gain or loss on the overall position for each theoretical scenario.

3.    Incorporate implied volatility into the calculated risk array.

4.    Calculate the largest possible loss that could occur with each theoretical scenario. That amount is the margin requirement.

Recommended: Calculating Margin for Trading

Key Considerations

Portfolio margin can be a great tool for experienced investors who want to invest more of their available cash. However, there are some important things to keep in mind:

•   Margin trading tends to be risky and is not recommended for beginning traders

•   Traders must keep $100,000 net liquidating value in their portfolio margin account (this is not the same as a client’s margin account). If the account goes below this, they may lose their active trading positions and the ability to trade on margin.

•   Traders must get approval to enable margin trading on a brokerage account before they can utilize the portfolio margin rules.

If an investor’s margin balance falls below the margin requirement, they could face a margin call, which would require them to either deposit more cash or sell securities in order to increase their balance to the required amount.

Portfolio Margin Requirements

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) sets the rules for portfolio margin. In 2006 it expanded margin requirements, with the goal of better connecting requirements to portfolio risk exposure. Reducing the amount of portfolio margin required for lower risk investment accounts frees up more capital for leveraged trades, benefitting both the trader and the broker.

Brokers must use the approved portfolio margin calculation model provided by The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), which is the Theoretical Intermarket Margining System (TIMS). TIMS calculates the margin requirements based on the risk of the portfolio on a daily basis.

To remain qualified for portfolio margin, investors must maintain a minimum of $100,000 net liquid value in their account.

There are additional requirements derivatives traders should keep in mind if they use leverage to trade. Regulation T is a set of regulations for margin trading accounts overseen by the Federal Reserve Bank.

Brokers must evaluate potential margin traders before allowing them to start margin trading, and they must maintain a minimum equity requirement for their trading customers. In addition, brokers must inform traders of changes to margin requirements and of the risks involved with margin trading.

The Takeaway

Margin trading may be very profitable and is a tool for investors, but it comes with a lot of risk and isn’t recommended for most traders. If you use margin trading for derivatives, however, portfolio margin may free up more capital for trading.

If you’re an experienced trader and have the risk tolerance to try out trading on margin, consider enabling a SoFi margin account. With a SoFi margin account, experienced investors can take advantage of more investment opportunities, and potentially increase returns. That said, margin trading is a high-risk endeavor, and using margin loans can amplify losses as well as gains.

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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

*Borrow at 11%. Utilizing a margin loan is generally considered more appropriate for experienced investors as there are additional costs and risks associated. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment when using margin. Please see SoFi.com/wealth/assets/documents/brokerage-margin-disclosure-statement.pdf for detailed disclosure information.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Guide to Retirement Account Garnishment

There isn’t a simple yes or no answer as to whether your retirement accounts can be garnished. The Employment Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) protects certain retirement accounts from garnishment if you’re sued by a creditor. The Act does not extend to non-qualified accounts like IRAs. However, those accounts do enjoy certain protections in bankruptcy.

The IRS may be able to garnish or take your 401(k) funds, however, if you owe back taxes. The IRS can also dip into your IRA or any self-employed retirement accounts you own to collect on a past due tax bill. If you’re worried about being sued by a creditor or running afoul of the IRS, it’s important to know when retirement accounts may be subject to garnishment.

Key Points

•   Barring certain exceptions, ERISA protects qualified retirement plans from garnishment; however, non-qualified plans like IRAs may lack these safeguards.

•   Retirement accounts — including qualified retirement plans like 401(k)s — can be garnished for unpaid taxes or court-ordered restitution.

•   Qualified retirement accounts may also be garnished if an individual owes child support or alimony.

•   Individuals may be able to avoid garnishment for unpaid taxes by setting up a payment plan, negotiating an Offer In Compromise, or making a claim for financial hardship.

•   To prevent garnishment, timely tax payments, responding to IRS notices, and maintaining domestic support payments are essential.

What Does Garnishment Mean?

Garnishment is a legal process in which one entity takes money from another under the authority of federal or state law to satisfy a debt. Both wages and bank accounts can be subject to garnishment in connection with debt collection lawsuits. A court order may be necessary to enforce a garnishment agreement.

Federal law can limit which wages or bank account deposits are exempt from garnishment and under what conditions. For example, if you receive Social Security benefits, they may be exempt if you’re sued for unpaid credit card debt. Those benefits are not bulletproof, however. And ignoring how your funds could be imperiled could be a critical retirement mistake.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) can withhold some of your benefits if your state presents a garnishment order for unpaid alimony, child support, or restitution. The Treasury Department can also withhold some of your benefits to offset unpaid tax debts. Generally, a garnishment order cannot be lifted until the debt in question is satisfied.

Can Retirement Accounts Be Garnished?

Retirement accounts can be garnished but there are specific rules that apply in determining which accounts are subject to garnishment. This is where it’s important to understand the different types of retirement plans.

As mentioned, certain retirement accounts are protected by ERISA. They’re usually referred to as qualified retirement plans. Examples of ERISA plans include:

•   Profit-sharing plans

•   401(k) plans

•   Money purchase plans

•   Stock bonus plans

•   Employee stock ownership plans

•   Defined benefit plans, including pensions

Generally speaking, money held in ERISA plans are protected from garnishment by creditors. The amount you can protect is unlimited, so whether you’ve saved $1,000 or $1 million in an ERISA plan, it’s safely out of reach of creditors.

There is an exception made in cases where the account owner is ordered by a court to pay restitution to the victim of a crime. In that instance, a federal ruling has deemed it acceptable to allow garnishment of ERISA plans to make restitution payments.

Non-qualified plans are not covered by ERISA protections. Non-qualified plans can include deferred compensation plans and executive bonus plans, but traditional and Roth IRAs can also fall under this umbrella.

The good news is that state law can include provisions to protect IRAs from garnishment. So if you’re sued for a $20,000 credit card debt, your creditor might not be able to touch any money you’ve stashed in a traditional or Roth IRA. Federal law also protects your online IRA or other type of IRA from garnishments relating to unpaid debts if you file for bankruptcy protection.

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Reasons Your 401(k) May Be Garnished

It’s not common for a 401(k) to be garnished, thanks to ERISA. But there are some scenarios where it can happen. Here are some of the reasons why a 401(k) can be garnished.

You Have a Solo 401(k)

A solo 401(k) or one-participant 401(k) is a type of 401(k) plan that’s designed for people who are self-employed or run a business and have just one employee who is their spouse. These plans are not subject to ERISA rules, so they could be vulnerable to creditors which may include garnishment for unpaid debt.

Even though a solo 401(k) isn’t protected at the federal level, your assets could still be safe under state law. As mentioned, many states exempt retirement accounts from creditor garnishments. The exemption limit may vary from state to state, though some states protect 100% of retirement assets.

You Owe Child Support or Alimony

If you’re ordered to pay child support or alimony and fail to do so, the court could order you to turn over some of your 401(k) assets to make those payments. If you’re getting divorced, then your spouse may be able to claim part of those assets as part of the settlement.

They’ll generally need a Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO) to do so. This document directs the plan administrator on how to divide 401(k) assets between spouses, according to the terms set by the divorce agreement.

You Owe Restitution

As mentioned, retirement accounts can be garnished in cases where you’re ordered by a court to pay restitution to someone. For example, say that you were negligent and injured someone in a car accident. The court might order you to pay restitution to the injured person.

If you don’t arrange another form of payment, the court might greenlight garnishment of your 401(k). The amount that can be garnished must reflect the amount of restitution you were ordered to pay.

Can the Government Take My 401(k) or IRA?

The federal government, specifically the IRS, can garnish your retirement accounts. So when can the IRS take your 401(k) or IRA? Simply, if you owe unpaid tax debt and have made no attempt to pay it. Garnishment and property liens are usually options of last resort, as the IRS might give you an opportunity to set up an Installment Agreement or make an Offer In Compromise to satisfy the debt.

Before the IRS can garnish your retirement accounts for unpaid taxes, it has to provide you with adequate notice. That means sending a written letter that specifies how much you owe. If you don’t respond to this notice, the IRS will send out a final notice giving you an additional opportunity to pay your taxes or schedule a hearing.

Should you still do nothing, that opens the door for the government to garnish your 401(k), IRA, and other retirement accounts. Note that the IRS can also garnish your Social Security retirement benefits but not Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits.

State tax agencies can seek a judgment against you for unpaid debt. While they can obtain a court order requesting payment, they cannot force you to withdraw money from a retirement account to pay. You could, however, still be subject to wage garnishments or bank account levies.

What Happens When Your Retirement Account Is Garnished?

When a retirement account is garnished, money is withdrawn and handed over to the recipient, which may be a creditor or the government. At that point, there may be nothing you can do to get that money back.

You should receive notification of the garnishment before it happens. That can give you time to make alternate arrangements to pay the debt. You could try to do that after the garnishment moves ahead, though it might be difficult to retrieve the money.

For example, if your 401(k) is garnished to pay back taxes you could contact the IRS to see if you might be able to reverse it by paying the tax debt, setting up a payment plan, or negotiating an Offer In Compromise. You could also attempt to make a claim for financial hardship which may help you to get the garnishment reversed.

Tips for Avoiding 401(k) Garnishment

Having your retirement accounts garnished can be unpleasant to say the least and it’s best avoided if possible. If you’re concerned about your 401(k) or other retirement accounts being garnished, here are some things you can do to try and prevent that from happening.

Pay Your Taxes on Time

One of the simplest ways to avoid a garnishment is to pay your federal taxes on time. If you’ve filed your return but you don’t have the money to pay what’s owed in full, you can potentially work out a payment agreement with the IRS, take out a loan, or charge it to a credit card.

You could also borrow from your 401(k) to satisfy unpaid tax debts. Using your 401(k) to pay down debt is usually not advised, since it can shrink your overall wealth and you might face tax penalties. However, you may prefer it to having the money taken from your account by the IRS.

Don’t Ignore IRS Notices

If the IRS sends you a letter requesting payment for unpaid taxes, don’t ignore it. Doing so could lead to a garnishment if the government makes additional attempts to get you to pay with no success. If you’re questioning whether the amount is accurate you may want to contact the IRS for verification or consult with a tax attorney.

Keep Up With Domestic Support Payments

When you’re ordered by a judge to pay child support or alimony, it’s important that you make those payments in a timely manner. As with back taxes, failing to pay could result in your 401(k) being garnished to satisfy the terms of the order in keeping with the divorce agreement or decree.

The Takeaway

There are certain retirement mistakes that are best avoided and having your savings garnished is one of them. Knowing when retirement accounts can be garnished can help you to preserve your assets.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

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FAQ

Can the government legally take your 401(k)?

The federal government can garnish your 401(k) if you owe unpaid tax debts and all other attempts at collection have been unsuccessful. The IRS can also place levies against your property, including homes, vehicles, and other assets to force you to pay what’s owed.

Can a 401(k) be garnished by the IRS?

Yes, the IRS can garnish your 401(k) if you don’t pay federal taxes. Generally, the IRS will give you sufficient notice beforehand so that you have time to either pay the taxes owed or make alternate arrangements for handling your tax bill.

How do I protect my 401(k) from the IRS?

The simplest way to protect a 401(k) from the IRS is to pay your federal taxes on time and not disregard any notices or requests for payment you receive from the government. If you can’t pay in full, you might be able to set up a payment plan or an Offer In Compromise to avoid 401(k) garnishment.


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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

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Implied Volatility vs Historical Volatility

Implied Volatility vs Historical Volatility

Whether you are a new investor or a seasoned trader, it’s common to hear the word “volatility” when discussing the movements of a stock price or index. More volatile stocks tend to have larger swings in value, both up and down.

There are two forms of volatility, however. Historical volatility, which measures past price movements, and implied volatility, which estimates future price fluctuations based on options pricing. It’s crucial for participants in these markets to understand the difference between implied vs historical volatility.

Key Points

•   Historical volatility measures the range of returns on a market index or security over a given time period.

•   Traders use historical volatility to set stop-loss levels and analyze riskiness.

•   Historical volatility is different from implied volatility, which is forward-looking.

•   Implied volatility measures expected future volatility based on options prices, reflecting market expectations.

•   Higher implied volatility tends to lead to higher options premiums since the price is more likely to jump to a trader’s advantage (or disadvantage).

Historical Volatility Definition

As the name suggests, historical volatility measures a stock’s price as compared to its average, or mean. The most popular way to calculate a stock’s historical volatility is by calculating the standard deviation of its price movements during a period of time.

Investors use historical volatility to get an idea of how likely the stock is to make large movements in price. A stock with higher volatility may indicate elevated risk, because there is a higher potential that the stock’s price could rise or drop significantly.

Highly volatile investments purchased with leveraged accounts can create additional risk. On the other hand, a stock with higher historical volatility could also be potentially more rewarding, since there is also a possibility that the stock’s price could make a big jump upward (or downward). Stocks may become more volatile during times of recession or uncertainty.

Investors measure a stock’s historical volatility as a percentage of the stock’s price, and not as an absolute number. That makes it easier to compare historical volatility between stocks — even if they have very different values — while assessing investment opportunities. When comparing the volatility of stocks, it’s important to look at them during the same time period.

Implied Volatility Definition

Implied volatility measures a stock’s expected future price fluctuations, derived from options prices, and is commonly used by traders to assess market uncertainty. While historical volatility is backward-looking, implied volatility attempts to quantify a stock’s volatility going forward.

Implied volatility reflects the prices of the options contracts associated with a particular stock. Options traders often assess implied volatility using metrics like Vega, one of the Greeks in options trading, which measures how sensitive an option’s price is to changes in implied volatility.

A stock with a higher implied volatility generally has options contracts with higher premiums. This is because there is more uncertainty around the direction of the underlying stock.

Recommended: Understanding the Greeks in Options Trading

Historical vs Implied Volatility

Although both implied volatility and historical volatility measure the volatility of stocks, they measure it in different ways. Historical volatility reflects the past price movements of a particular stock or index, while implied volatility gauges future expectations of price movements based on the prices of options contracts. Traders use implied volatility when they are determining the extrinsic value of an option.

When to Use Historical vs Implied Volatility

Historical volatility is used for assessing a stock’s past price movements. It demonstrates a stock’s value fluctuation over a specific period, and may provide an idea of the risk associated with it. Investors use historical volatility to gauge the potential for future price swings based on historical data.

Implied volatility may help an investor evaluate options pricing or forecast potential future price movements. This figure reflects the market’s expectations for future volatility, based on the prices of options contracts. Traders often use implied volatility to determine whether options are overpriced or underpriced relative to expected price movements.

For example, a trader could look at options with implied volatility that differs from its historical volatility. If an option’s implied volatility is lower than the historical volatility of the underlying stock, that may be a signal of an undervalued option premium.

Comparing Implied and Historical Volatility

Here is a quick summary of the differences between historical and implied volatility:

Historical Volatility:

Historical volatility is used to analyze a stock’s past price movements, regardless of whether the investor is purchasing the stock itself or trading its options. It can help assess the stock’s risk or potential for large price swings, which is valuable for both stock investors and options traders.

Implied Volatility:

Implied volatility is specific to options because it’s derived from options prices, reflecting the market’s expectations of future volatility. Implied volatility isn’t just for options traders, however. It can also be useful for stock traders as an indicator of market sentiment about the stock’s future price movements.

Historical Volatility

Implied Volatility

Calculated using the historical prices of a stock or index Determined indirectly based on the prices of options contracts
Used by investors as well as traders to analyze a stock’s movements Used primarily for options and based on options prices, which are based on market expectations of volatility
Measures past performance based on historical data Projects future performance, representing an indicator of future volatility

How to Use Implied and Historical Volatility Together

Because implied volatility and historical volatility measure different things, it can be useful to employ them both. The historical volatility of a given stock or index will measure how much the price has historically moved up and down. If you’re interested in investing in options for a stock, you can look at how its historical volatility compares to the implied volatility denoted by the prices of its options contracts.

One way you can incorporate some of these ideas into your trading strategies is through a volatility skew. A volatility skew depends on the difference in implied volatility between options contracts that are in the money, at the money, and out of the money.

Another relevant concept when it comes to implied volatility is a volatility smile, a graphic representation of the strike prices and the implied volatility of options with the same underlying asset and expiration date.


💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

The Takeaway

Options traders often look at both historical and implied volatility when determining their options trading strategy. You may also use these tools while investing, or you might look at other factors to evaluate potential investments.

Investors who are ready to try their hand at options trading despite the risks involved, might consider checking out SoFi’s options trading platform offered through SoFi Securities, LLC. The platform’s user-friendly design allows investors to buy put and call options through the mobile app or web platform, and get important metrics like breakeven percentage, maximum profit/loss, and more with the click of a button.

Plus, SoFi offers educational resources — including a step-by-step in-app guide — to help you learn more about options trading. Trading options involves high-risk strategies, and should be undertaken by experienced investors. Currently, investors can not sell options on SoFi Active Invest®.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.

FAQ

How is implied volatility calculated from historical volatility?

The historical volatility of a stock or index reflects the changes in historical stock prices. It is often, but not always, calculated as the standard deviation of a stock’s price movements. Implied volatility is not calculated directly from historical data. Rather, it is derived from the market prices of options contracts for the underlying stock.

Is there a difference between implied and realized volatility?

Realized volatility is another name for the historical volatility of a stock. So while implied and realized volatility both measure how volatile a stock is, they have different definitions, and investors use them in different ways.


Photo credit: iStock/kupicoo
SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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What Is Historical Volatility & How Do You Use It?

A Guide to Historical Volatility


Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Historical volatility (HV) measures the range of returns on a market index or security over a given time period. When an asset’s historical volatility is going up, that means its price is moving further away from its average (in either direction) more quickly than usual.

A stock’s historical volatility is commonly expressed as one standard deviation using daily returns, and it’s one factor that investors often look at to gauge the risk of a potential investment. An asset’s historical volatility is different from its implied volatility. Read on to learn what historical volatility is, how historical volatility works, and how to calculate historical volatility.

Key Points

•   Historical volatility measures deviations from a stock’s average price over a period of time.

•   The historical volatility of a stock is typically calculated using the standard deviation of daily returns.

•   Historical volatility is expressed as a percentage, but differs from forward-looking implied volatility.

•   High historical volatility suggests larger price swings, while low volatility indicates smaller movements.

•   Traders may use historical volatility alongside implied volatility — which indicates the expected future volatility of an option’s underlying asset — to inform their trading strategy or assess a security’s riskiness.

What Is Historical Volatility?

Historical volatility measures how much the price of a stock or index goes up and down over a certain period. Investors calculate historical volatility by measuring how much an asset’s price deviates from its average price during a certain time period. Historical volatility typically looks at daily returns, but some investors use it to look at intraday price changes.

Analysts can use any number of trading days when calculating historical volatility, but options traders typically focus on a time period between 10 and 180 days to balance capturing short-term fluctuations with longer-term trends. Options traders may use historical volatility and implied volatility when analyzing trading ideas.

Historical volatility is typically expressed as a percentage that reflects the standard deviation from the average price, based on past price behavior. But there are also other methods they can use to determine an asset’s historical volatility. For example, unstable daily price changes often result in high historical volatility readings.

How Historical Volatility Works

Historical volatility, expressed as a percentage, tracks how much a stock’s price fluctuates in relation to its average price during a certain period. This is usually calculated using the standard deviation of past price returns, which is then demonstrated as an annualized figure.

When a stock sees large daily price swings compared to its history, it will typically have a historical volatility reading. Historical volatility does not measure direction; it simply indicates the deviation from an average.

When a stock’s historical volatility is rising or above average, it means daily price changes are larger than normal. When it is lower than average, a stock or index has been relatively calm.

How Historical Volatility is Calculated

The historical volatility formula is typically a standard deviation measurement. It typically takes a stock’s daily price changes and averages them over a period. There are several steps to calculating historical volatility:

1.    Collect historical prices.

2.    Calculate the average price over the chosen period.

3.    Find the difference between each day’s price change and the average price.

4.    Square those differences.

5.    Find the sum of those squared differences (this finds the squared deviations).

6.    Divide the sum by the total number of prices (this finds the variance).

7.    Calculate the square root of the variance.

You can then calculate the annualized volatility of a stock in two ways:

•   Daily returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 252 (the approximate number of trading days per year)

•   Monthly returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 12 (the number of months per year)

Working through the historical volatility formula can be a lengthy process, but most brokerage platforms will automatically calculate it for you. Many brokers even offer historical volatility charts. With a historical volatility chart, you can easily compare changes through time.

For example, if a stock reacted sharply to an earnings release, its historical volatility charts may show a jump right after the earnings date, while implied volatility might drop sharply as the market makes adjustments to its expectations following the earnings results. Implied volatility measures market expectations of price fluctuations for a certain asset in the future, which is reflected in how its options are priced.

How to Use Historical Volatility

Traders may use historical volatility when analyzing a stock, fund, or index to get a sense of its riskiness. High or low historical volatility stocks are not inherently bullish or bearish. Day traders might seek high historical volatility stocks as candidates for high-profit trading opportunities (but they also come with high loss potential).

Traders sometimes use historical volatility to help set stop-loss levels, which are predetermined prices at which a trade will automatically close to limit losses. For example, a day trader might use three times a stock’s daily average range – a measure of historical volatility – to set a stop price. This is known as volatility ratio trading.

You can also use historical volatility to help determine whether a stock’s options are expensive to help determine an options trading strategy. If implied volatility is extremely high when compared to a stock’s historical volatility, traders may decide that options on the stock are undervalued and suitable as an investment.

Historical volatility can help traders understand the potential range of price movements, which may inform their risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points.

Recommended: Increase your buying power with a margin loan.

Historical vs Implied Volatility

Like historical volatility, implied volatility measures fluctuations in an underlying stock or index over a period of time, but there are key differences between the two indicators. Implied volatility is a forward-looking indicator of a stock’s future volatility.

The higher the historical volatility, the more risk-prone the security has been in the past. Implied volatility, on the other hand, uses option pricing to arrive at a calculation and estimate of future volatility. If implied volatility is significantly less than a stock’s historical volatility, traders typically anticipate a relatively stable period of trading, and vice versa.

Typically, when implied volatility is low, options tend to also be priced lower, which may make them more appealing to buyers who seek to capitalize on potential future price movements. Sometimes investors will use a graph to determine how an option’s implied volatility changes relative to its strike price, using a volatility smile.

Historical Volatility

Implied Volatility

Measures past price data to gauge volatility on a security. Uses forward-looking option-pricing data to gauge expected future volatility on a security.
Higher historical volatility often leads to higher options pricing and higher implied volatility. Imminent news, like a company earnings report or a key economic data point, may drive implied volatility higher on a stock or index.
May inform traders’ risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points. Traders may use implied volatility to find stocks expected to exhibit the biggest price swings.

The Takeaway

Historical volatility can be a useful indicator for both institutional and retail investors looking to monitor the level and frequency of a stock or index’s price fluctuations. It measures a security’s dispersion of returns over a defined period. Implied volatility is a similar tool, but it is forward-looking and uses option pricing to arrive at its output.

Investors who are ready to try their hand at options trading despite the risks involved, might consider checking out SoFi’s options trading platform offered through SoFi Securities, LLC. The platform’s user-friendly design allows investors to buy put and call options through the mobile app or web platform, and get important metrics like breakeven percentage, maximum profit/loss, and more with the click of a button.

Plus, SoFi offers educational resources — including a step-by-step in-app guide — to help you learn more about options trading. Trading options involves high-risk strategies, and should be undertaken by experienced investors. Currently, investors can not sell options on SoFi Active Invest®.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.

FAQ

What is considered a good number for historical volatility?

It depends. Although one stock might have a high historical volatility reading, perhaps above 100%, another steady stock might have a low figure around 20%. The key is to understand the securities you trade. Historical volatility can be an indicator of a stock’s volatility, but unforeseen risks can make future volatility drastically different than the historical trend.

What is a historical volatility ratio?

The historical volatility ratio compares short-term and long-term historical volatility as a percentage of the price of a financial asset. You can interpret the historical volatility ratio by looking at short versus long historical volatility. If short volatility on a stock drops below a threshold percentage of its long volatility, a trader might think there will be a jump in future volatility soon.

This is similar to analyzing volatility skew in options. It is important to remember that the interpretation and technical rules of historical volatility can be subjective by traders.

How is historical volatility calculated?

Historical volatility calculations require finding the average deviation from the average price of an asset over a particular time. An asset’s standard deviation is often used. Historical volatility is usually stated as one standard deviation of historical daily returns.

Many trading platforms automatically calculate historical volatility, so you may not have to do the calculations manually.


Photo credit: iStock/Eva-Katalin

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

SOIN-Q324-064

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