invest Archives

Sep

2024

How Midterm Elections Can Influence the Stock Market

By Michael Flannelly | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Midterm elections can introduce uncertainty and turmoil to the stock market. A change in power in Congress could lead to policy and regulatory changes that could impact the economy and corporate profits. As such, investors will be watching to see which party wins control of Congress and the implications for the stock market.

Historically, the stock market has underperformed leading up to midterm elections and bounced back in the year following the elections. Many investors use this historical precedent to predict how midterms will affect the stock market in the future. However, past performance is not indicative of future results. The midterm elections may be less important on the stock market than other economic factors, like high interest rates, inflation, and rising energy costs.

What are the Midterm Elections?

As the name suggests, midterm elections occur in the middle of a presidential term, as opposed to a general election. Midterm elections are when voters elect every member of the House of Representatives, and about one-third of the members of the Senate. The results of the midterm elections often determine which political party controls the House and Senate, which could determine the future of economic policy that may affect the stock market, and investors’ plans for buying and selling stocks or other securities.

History of Midterm Elections Results

Historically, the president’s party loses ground in Congress during the midterm elections. Of the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. The president’s party gained seats in both the House and the Senate only twice over this period.

The flip in power during the midterm elections occurs, in part, because the president’s approval rating usually declines during the first two years in office, which can influence voters to vote against the party in power or not show up to the polls. Additionally, voters of the party not in control are often more motivated to vote during these elections, boosting voter turnout that can help the opposition party outperform the president’s party.

During the most recent midterm election cycle, in 2022, the Republican party won the House of Representatives with a 222-213 seat majority. The Democratic Party maintained a majority in the Senate, with a 51-seat majority.

Stock Market Performance During Year of Midterm Elections

Leading up to the midterm elections, the stock market tends to underperform. Since 1962, the average annual return of the S&P 500 Index in the 12 months before midterm elections is 0.3%. In contrast, the historical average return of the S&P 500 is an 8.1% gain.

This underperformance during the midterm year follows the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, which implies that the first two years of a president’s term tend to be the weakest for the stocks.

However, it’s unclear whether this downbeat performance and stock volatility in the year preceding the midterms is a function of investors’ views of potential election outcomes and subsequent policy changes.

Some analysts say that the underperformance occurs due to uncertainty about the election’s outcome and impact, and investors don’t like uncertainty. But others say that the more critical impact on the stock market is the state of the economy; factors like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, energy prices, inflation, and the state of the labor market are more important to the stock market.

Recommended: How Do Interest Rates Impact Stocks?

Stock Market Performance Following Midterm Elections

Even though the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has historically underperformed leading up to the midterm elections, stocks have tended to overperform in the post-election environment. Between 1962 and 2022, the 12 months after midterm elections, the S&P 500 had an average return of 16.3%.

The gains in stocks following the midterm elections have occurred due to no single factor. One reason may be that investors prefer the certainty of knowing the makeup of the federal government and potential policy changes.

Moreover, some believe that because the president’s party typically loses ground in the midterm elections, it reduces the likelihood of policy changes that could have a negative impact on the economy. This, in turn, can provide a tailwind for stocks. The potential for gridlock, rather than sweeping policy and regulatory changes, is usually welcomed by investors.

How Did the 2022 Midterm Elections Affect the Stock Market?

It is always difficult to say how any midterm election cycle will affect the stock market. But we can look at the most recent midterm election, in 2022, to get a sense. Immediately following the election, on November 8, 2022, the S&P 500 did see an increase – but in December, the market later fell before gaining steam again in January.

So, it’s difficult to say how much the elections weighed on the markets, aside from other factors. During that time, for instance, rising inflation and interest rates may have been playing a larger role in the market’s performance than other variables.

But broadly and historically, again, the most obvious way the midterm elections could impact the markets is that if one party or the other gains control of Congress, that could influence economic policy and the country’s direction. This could lead to tax policy, regulation, and spending changes that could impact businesses and the stock market.
Another potential impact of the midterm elections is that if there is a change in control of Congress, that could lead to more investigations and subpoenas of businesses and individuals, which could create uncertainty that investors and the markets may not like.

The Takeaway

The history of midterm elections is one of cycles: the party in power typically loses ground during midterm elections, and the opposition party typically gains ground. And these cycles are also evident in the performance of the stock market, with muted stock gains in the year of a midterm election and substantial gains the year following the elections.

But despite these historical trends, no one can say for sure how the midterm elections will impact the stock market. And investors shouldn’t necessarily rely on these trends when making investing decisions. Instead, investors might want to try and maintain a long-term view to reach financial goals, avoiding the short-term noise and uncertainty of elections and politics. Investors should continue to focus on asset allocation, risk tolerance, and the time horizon of a diversified portfolio to achieve financial goals.

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Photo credit: iStock/Drazen_

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SOIN-Q324-028

Sep

2024

Guide to Block Trades

By Colin Dodds | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Block trades are big under-the-radar trades, generally carried out in private. Because of their size, block trades have the potential to move the markets. For that reason they’re conducted by special groups known as block houses. And while they’re considered legal, block trades are not regulated by the SEC.

As a retail investor, you likely won’t have anything to do with block trades, but it’s a good idea to know what they are, how they work, and how they can affect the overall market.

Key Points

• Block trades are large-volume purchases or sales of financial assets, often conducted by institutional investors.

• Block trades can move the market for a security and are executed through block trade facilities, dark pools, or block houses.

• Block trades are used to avoid market disruption and can be broken down into smaller trades to conceal their size.

• Retail investors may find it difficult to detect block trades, but they can provide insights into short-term market movements and sentiment.

• Block trades are legal and not regulated by the SEC, but they can be perceived as unfair by retail investors.

What Are Block Trades?

A block trade is a single purchase or sale of a large volume of financial assets. A block, as defined by the New York Stock Exchange’s Rule 127.10, is a minimum of 10,000 shares of stock. For bonds, a block trade usually involves at least $200,000 worth of a given fixed-income security.

Though 10,000 shares is the operative figure, the number of shares involved in most block trades is far higher. Individuals typically don’t execute block trades. Rather, they most often come from institutional investors, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, or other large-scale investors.

Why Do Block Trades Exist?

Block trades are often so large that they can move the market for a given security. If a pension fund manager, for example, plans to sell one million shares of a particular stock without sparking a broader market selloff, selling all those shares on a public market will take some time.

During that process, the value of the shares the manager is selling will likely go down — the market sees a drop in demand, and values decrease accordingly. Sometimes, the manager will sell even more slowly. But that creates the risk that other traders will identify the institution or the fund behind the sale. Then, those investors might short the stock to take advantage.

Those same risks exist for a fund manager who is buying large blocks of a given security on a public market. The purchase itself can drive up the price, again, as the market sees an increase in demand. And if the trade attracts attention, other traders may front-run the manager’s purchases.

How Block Trades Are Executed

Many large institutions conduct their block trades through block trade facilities, dark pools, or block houses, in an effort to avoid influencing the market. Most of those institutions typically have expertise in both initiating and executing very large trades, without having a major — and costly — effect on the price of a given security.

Every one of these non-public exchange services operates according to its own rules when it comes to block trades, but what they have in common is relationships with hedge funds and others that can buy and sell large blocks of securities. By connecting these large buyers and sellers, blockhouses and dark pools offer the ability to make often enormous trades without roiling the markets.

Investment banks and large brokerages often have a division known as a block house. These block houses run dark pools, which are called such because the public can’t see the trades they’re making until at least a day after they’ve been executed.

Dark pools have been growing in popularity. In 2020, there were more than 50 dark pools registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States. At the end of 2023, dark pools executed about 15% of all U.S. equity trades.

Smaller Trades Are Used to Hide Block Trades

To help institutional traders conceal their block trades and keep the market from shifting, blockhouses may use a series of maneuvers to conceal the size of the trade being executed. At their most basic, these strategies involve breaking up the block into smaller trades. But they can be quite sophisticated, such as “iceberg orders,” in which the block house will break block orders into a large number of limit orders.

By using an automated program to make the smaller limit orders, they can hide the actual number of orders at any given time. That’s where the “iceberg” in the name comes from — the limit orders that other traders can see are just the tip of the iceberg.

Taken together, these networks of traders who make block trades are often referred to as the Upstairs Market, because their trades occur off the trading floor.

Pros and Cons of Block Trades

As with most things in the investment field and markets, block trades have their pros and cons. Read on to see a rundown of each.

Pros of Block Trades

The most obvious advantage of block trades is that they allow for large trades to commence without warping the market. Again, since large trades can have an effect on market values, block trades, done under the radar, can avoid causing undue volatility.

Block trades can be used to conceal information, too, which can also be a “pro” in the eyes of the involved parties. If Company A stock is moving in a block trade for a specific reason, traders outside of the block trade wouldn’t know about it.

Block trades are also not regulated by the SEC, meaning there are fewer hoops to jump through.

Cons of Block Trades

While masking a large, market-changing trade may be a good thing for those involved with the trade, it isn’t necessarily a positive thing for everyone else in the market. As such, block trades can veil market movements which may be perceived as unfair by retail investors, who are trading none the wiser.

Block trades can be hard to detect, too, as mentioned. Since they’re designed to be obscure to the greater market, it can be difficult to tell when a block trade is actually occuring.

Block trades are also not regulated by the SEC — it’s a pro, and a con. The SEC doesn’t regulate them, but rather the individual stock exchanges. That may not sit well with some investors.

Block Trade Example

An example of a block trade could be as follows: A large investment bank wants to sell one million shares of Company A stock. If they were to do so all at once, Company A’s stock would drop — if they do it somewhat slowly, the rest of the market may see what’s going on, and sell their shares in Company A, too. That would cause the value of Company A stock to fall before the investment bank is able to sell all of its shares.

To avoid that, the investment bank uses a block house, which breaks the large trade up into smaller trades, which are then traded through different brokerages. The single large trade now appears to be many smaller ones, masking its original origin.

Are Block Trades Legal?

Block trades are legal, but within stock market history they exist in something of a gray area. As mentioned, “blocks” are defined by rules from the New York Stock Exchange. But regulators like the SEC have not issued a legal definition of their own.

Further, while they can move markets, block trades are not considered market manipulation. They’re simply a method used by large investors to adjust their asset allocation with the least market disruption and stock volatility possible.

How Block Trades Impact Individual Investors

Institutional investors wouldn’t go to such lengths to conceal their block trades unless the information offered by a block trade was valuable. A block trade can offer clues about the short-term future movement and liquidity of a given security. Or it can indicate that market sentiment is shifting.

For retail (aka individual) investors, it can also be hard to know what a block trade indicates. A large trade that looks like the turning of the tide for a popular stock may just be a giant mutual fund making a minor adjustment.

But it is possible for retail investors to find information about block trades. There are a host of digital tools, some offered by mainstream online brokerages, that function like block trade indicators. This might be useful for trading stocks online.

Many of these tools use Nasdaq Quotation Dissemination Service (NQDS), Level 2 data. This subscription service offers investors access to the NASDAQ order book in real time. Its data feed includes price quotes from the market makers who are registered to trade every NASDAQ and OTC Bulletin Board security, and is popular among investors who trade using market depth and market momentum.

Even access to tools like that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy to find block trades, though. Some blockhouses design their strategies, such as the aforementioned “iceberg orders,” to make them hard to detect on Level 2. But when combined with software filters, investors have a better chance of glimpsing these major trades before they show up later on the consolidated tape, which records all trades through blockhouses and dark pools — though often well after those trades have been fully executed.

These software tools vary widely in both sophistication and cost, but may be worth considering, depending on how serious of a trader you are. At the very least, using software to scan for block trades is a way to keep track of what large institutional investors and fund managers are buying and selling. Active traders may use the information to spot new trends.

The Takeaway

Block trades are large movements of securities, typically done under-the-radar, involving 10,000 or so shares, and around $200,000 in value. It can be difficult for individual investors to detect block trades — which, again, are giant position shifts by institutional investors — on their own.

But these trades have some benefits for individual investors. The mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that most investors have in their brokerage accounts, IRAs, 401(k)s and 529 plans may take advantage of the lower trading costs and volatility-dampening benefits of block trades, and pass along those savings to their shareholders.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

Photo credit: iStock/marchmeena29

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SOIN-Q324-031

Sep

2024

A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Your 20s

By Michael Flannelly | Debt Payoff, invest, Terminology | No Comments

Deciding how to invest money in your 20s can seem overwhelming at first; many people have differing opinions or goals, and it’s hard to know where to start. But remember that you don’t need to have a lot of money upfront to be a successful and savvy investor.

Perhaps the most important thing is to start investing early, even if your initial investments are small. Here are a few different strategies for investing money in your 20s.

Think About Financial Goals

When determining your financial goals, you may want to break down short-, medium-, and long-term milestones. You want to ask yourself what you want from your money and figure out when you’ll need to use the money. For example, the money you save for a medium-term goal, like a down payment on your first home, should be treated differently than the retirement savings you won’t touch for 40 or more years.

So, you may want to start buying stocks right away, but you may also want to give some strategic thought as to how that may fit into your overall financial goals.

If you have not earmarked savings for a specific financial goal, take some time to think about what purpose you’d like to apply it to. A great first saving goal is to have three to six months of living expenses in an emergency fund. After that, it might be good to turn your attention toward savings and investing for longer-term goals, like retirement.

Decide Where to House Your Money

When deciding how to invest money in your 20s, it can help to think about immediate, mid-term, and long-term financial needs. Once you have outlined some money goals, you could consider setting up your accounts. The type of account you open often depends on when you need the money.

Where to Put Immediate Money

Food, bills, rent, and everything else you must pay for on a month-to-month basis are immediate needs. Often people keep this money — along with a cushion so as not to overdraft their account — in an online bank account. These types of accounts allow you to withdraw money instantaneously, generally without penalties, making them ideal for your immediate financial needs.

Where to Put Mid-term Money

Mid-term money is any money you might need in the next couple of years, such as a travel fund, wedding fund, or home down payment savings. It might make sense to keep this money in a high-yield savings account, which provides a better return on your money than traditional savings accounts.

High-yield savings accounts, along with other cash equivalents like certificates of deposits (CDs) and money market accounts, are usually considered to be lower-risk investments (though CDs are not helpful for emergency funds because of the early termination penalties).

Where to Put Mid- to Long-term Money

For money you’ll use in five to 20 years, you may be prepared to take slightly more risk than a high-yield savings account. You might choose to keep the money in your high-yield savings account or in CDs, or a online brokerage account where you can invest that money in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or other asset classes. You can also do a combination of the different types of accounts.

Longer-term savings options, like a tax-advantage 529 plan, can also be appropriate if you’d like to start planning for higher education needs for current or future children.

Where to Put Long-Term Money

Think of long-term money as cash you won’t need for several decades. A retirement account is a great example of an appropriate place to hold long-term money. Retirement plans like a Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, or a 401(k) account can offer significant tax benefits.

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Potential Assets to Invest in During Your 20s

One important thing to understand about investing in your 20s is the tradeoff between risk and reward when implementing your investing strategy. You cannot have one without the other. With this risk and reward calculation in mind, you need to determine what asset classes you might consider when investing in your 20s.

Stocks

A stock is a tiny piece of ownership in a publicly-traded company. When you invest in a stock, you could earn money through capital appreciation, dividends, or a combination of the two.

Stocks can be volatile because prices fluctuate according to supply and demand forces as they trade on an open exchange. Even though stocks can be volatile and experience losses, they tend to provide positive returns over time. The S&P 500 index has had an average annual growth rate of 10.3% from 1957 through the end of 2023.

Bonds

Although not risk-free, experts generally consider bonds less risky (though not risk-free) than stocks because they are a contract that comes with a stated rate of return. Bonds backed by the U.S. government, called treasury bonds, are the safest within the category of bonds because it is unlikely that the U.S. government will go bankrupt.

Bonds are debt investments, meaning investors fund the debt of some entity. The money you earn on that investment is the interest they pay you for borrowing your money. In addition to treasuries and corporate bonds, there are municipal bonds, which state and local governments issue, and mortgage- and asset-backed bonds, which are bundles of mortgages or other financial assets that pass through the interest paid on mortgages or assets.

Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds

Some investors might want to utilize mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gain exposure to certain asset classes.

A fund is essentially a basket of investments — stocks, bonds, another investment type, or a combination thereof. Funds are helpful because they provide immediate diversification: safety against the risk of having too much money invested in one stock, sector, or any other single asset.

Funds are either actively or passively managed. A fund that is passively managed is attempting to track a specific index. An actively managed fund is maintained with a hands-on approach to determine investments in a portfolio. ETFs tend to be passively managed, but there are many actively managed ETFs funds on the market. Mutual funds can be either passively or actively managed.

Tips for Investing In Your 20s

Once you’ve become familiar with the basics of investing, it’s time to put that knowledge into action. These tips can help you shape a strategy for how to invest money in your 20s and beyond.

Gauge Your Personal Risk Tolerance

One of the key things to remember about investing in your 20s is that time is on your side. You have a significant time horizon window to allow your portfolio to recover from bouts of inevitable stock market volatility. Because of this, you could take more risks with your investments to try and achieve higher rewards.

Getting to know your personal risk preferences can help you decide where and how to invest in your 20s to achieve your investment goals. It’s also important to understand how risk tolerance matches your risk capacity and appetite.

Risk tolerance means the level of risk you’re comfortable taking. Risk capacity is the level of risk you prefer to take to reach your investment goals, while risk appetite is the level of risk you need to hit those milestones. When you’re younger, playing it too safe with your portfolio might mean missing out on significant investment returns.

Know the Difference Between Asset Allocation and Asset Location

asset allocation when investing in your 20s

People often invest in a combination of stocks and bonds, which is easy to do using mutual funds and ETFs. One strategy for investing in your 20s is to invest a higher allocation of your long-term investments in stocks and less in bonds, slowly moving into more bond funds the closer you get to retirement. This big picture decision is called asset allocation.

But asset allocation is only part of the picture. One might also consider asset location: the types of accounts where you’re putting your money, like savings accounts, an online brokerage account, a 401k, or an IRA.

Asset location matters when it comes to investing money in your 20s because it can maximize tax advantages if you’re utilizing a 401k or IRA. But these retirement accounts also have restrictions and penalties for withdrawing money. So if you want to be able to access your investments quickly, an online brokerage may be a complimentary investing account.

Take Advantage of Free Money

One of the simplest ways to start investing in your 20s is to enroll in your workplace retirement plan like a 401k.

Once you’ve enrolled in a plan, consider contributing at least enough to get the full company match if your employer offers one. If you don’t, you could be leaving money on the table.

And if you can’t make the full contribution to get the match right away, you can still work your way up to it by gradually increasing your salary deferral percentage. For example, you could raise your contribution rate by 1% each year until you reach the maximum deferral amount.

Don’t Be Afraid of Investment Alternatives

Stocks, bonds, and mutual funds can all be good places to start investing in your 20s. But don’t count out other alternative investments outside these markets.

Real estate is one example of an alternative investment that can be attractive to some investors. Investing in real estate in your 20s doesn’t necessarily mean you have to own a rental property, though that’s one option. You could also invest in fix-and-flip properties, real estate investment trusts (REITs), or crowdfunded real estate investments.

Adding alternative investments such as real estate, cryptocurrency, and commodities to your portfolio may improve diversification and could create some insulation against risk.

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The Takeaway

Learning how to invest money in your 20s doesn’t happen overnight. And you may still be fuzzy on how certain parts of the market work as you enter your 30s or 40s. But by continually educating yourself about different investments and investing strategies, you can gain the knowledge needed to guide your portfolio toward your financial goals.

One thing to know about investing in your 20s is that consistency can pay off in the long run. Even if you’re only able to invest a little money at a time through 401k contributions or by purchasing partial or fractional shares of stock, those amounts can add up as the years and decades pass.

If you’re ready to start saving and investing for your financial goals, the SoFi investment app can help. With SoFi Invest®, you can begin building a portfolio of stocks, and ETFs for as little as $5 to meet all the critical financial goals and milestones in your life.

Find out how SoFi Invest® can help you take a big step towards reaching your financial goals.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Sep

2024

ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing Strategies: How Are They Different?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Impact investing is a broad category that includes a wide range of strategies; among them are two that are focused on the environment as well as social and governance issues: ESG (for environmental, social, and governance issues) and SRI (for socially responsible investing).

Investors who are interested in making an impact with their investing dollars may want to consider funds that embrace ESG or SRI strategies, but impact investing can include other goals as well (e.g., investing in or avoiding certain industries or sectors, or goals).

While there are ways in which these three strategies overlap, it’s important to understand the distinctions as they pertain to your own investing goals.

Key Points

• Impact investing refers to strategies that focus on having a measurable impact on certain companies, industries, or sectors.

• Impact investing is a broad category that can include a range of strategies, including ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and SRI (socially responsible investing), as well as others.

• As investor interest in ESG and SRI strategies has grown, so have inflows to funds that adhere to certain standards.

• Despite investor interest, standards and metrics vary widely when it comes to ESG, SRI, or any other type of impact investing.

Understanding ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

These days, numerous companies seek to meet certain ethical, social, environmental, or other standards. While some criteria have been inspired by the United Nations’ Principles for Responsible Investment, or the U.N.’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, investors need to bear in mind that the definition of ESG, SRI, and impact investing can vary from company to company, from country to country.

Nonetheless, investor interest in these strategies continues to grow. In fact, 67% of asset owners (e.g. institutional investors) say that over the last five years ESG standards have become even more critical to the investment process, according to a 2023 survey by Morningstar, the fund research and rating company.

As a result a number of companies have developed proprietary screening tools and scoring methods to help investors assess different investments, including stocks, bonds, ETFs, and more.

Defining ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

That being said, the lack of clearcut ESG and SRI standards dates back to the very beginnings of these strategies.

As early as the 18th century, religious groups like the Methodists would take a financial stand against certain societal problems (e.g., the slave trade or alcohol and tobacco manufacturing) by not investing in related organizations. This values-based approach became known over time as impact investing.

Today, ESG and SRI investing can be considered modern offshoots of that philosophy — but typically with a focus on investing proactively in certain companies or sectors with the goal of supporting specific changes or outcomes.

It’s still possible to invest in ESG and SRI strategies that explicitly avoid certain industries, companies, or types of products (e.g., avoiding companies known to use child labor).

Impact investing tends to be used interchangeably with the term values investing, as well as ESG and SRI investing, but again these strategies have different aims and standards.

Impact Investing

The goal of impact investing is for investments to have a positive, measurable impact in a given area. That might mean avoiding industries (e.g. alcohol or weapons), or investing directly in social, environmental, political, or other concerns.

Some mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may utilize impact investing strategies, but impact investing may also involve private funds, such as closed-end private equity and venture capital funds. This is partly because some public companies have to prioritize financial goals to meet shareholder expectations or earnings forecasts, and impact goals alone may not suffice (more on profitability below).

Following are some examples of impact investing categories:

Impact Category	Metrics
Environmental	• Trees planted • Solar panels installed • Greenhouse gas emissions limited or reduced
Women’s Empowerment	• Female founders supported • Number of female employees
Jobs and Education	• Jobs created • Income creation • Access and enrollment targets
Affordable Housing	• People housed • Number of units built
Essential Services	• Individuals in need of bank accounts • Patients served in medical facilities

ESG Investing

ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance factors. It’s a set of criteria that can help investors evaluate companies according to how well they uphold or meet relevant criteria, in addition to financial concerns.

ESG investing is considered a form of sustainable or impact investing, but companies that embrace this term theoretically must focus on positive results in those three areas.

When ESG strategies started gaining more attention in the 1960s, some investors assumed ESG investing was primarily about values and ethics. Over time investors come to realize that ESG strategies may also impact a company’s financials. For example, ESG reporting can help illuminate potential risks to company performance, not only progress toward sustainability goals.

Still, adoption of ESG reporting and analysis has been slow owing to a lack of consistency around standards and metrics for meeting these criteria. While the SEC adopted new rules in early 2024 to help “standardize climate-related disclosures by public companies and in public offerings,” it soon stayed those rules when a number of groups filed petitions for review in multiple courts of appeals.

Overall, there is still quite a bit of variance in these standards.

However, the table below shows some common ways to assess a company’s adherence to ESG standards:

Environmental	Social	Governance
Energy consumption	Community engagement and support	Diversity in the board of directors
Waste and pollution	Human and labor rights	Management performance
Climate change mitigation and adaptation	Health and safety impacts on products, local areas, etc.	Executive compensation
Conservation and protection of biodiversity	Shareholder relations	Corruption
Resource management, such as water usage and sanitation	Employee relations	Disclosures and transparency

SRI

Socially responsible investing, or SRI, is another impact investing category that focuses on social and ethical issues. SRI mutual funds were among the first values-based investment products on the market.

While SRI is similar to ESG, it’s more broadly defined. Unlike ESG investing, which revolves around a set of standards, SRI doesn’t have clearly defined criteria, and investment strategies vary depending on the company.

SRI-focused investors might choose to avoid certain investments or industries, or choose companies that specifically work on or donate to certain causes. Investors may need to evaluate companies and funds based on their own criteria.
SRI investing strategies can include a focus on one or more of the following:

• Alternatives to fossil fuels (e.g., clean energy like wind or solar technologies)

• Avoiding so-called vice industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, gambling

• Investing in female or minority-led companies, or companies with a social justice mission

• Avoiding companies relating to arms manufacturing and the military

• Investing in companies that adhere to human rights standards

• Supporting specific environmental outcomes, e.g. mitigating air and water pollution, safer agricultural practices, and so on

Is Sustainable Investing Different from ESG, SRI, and Impact Strategies?

Sustainable investing strategies can encompass SRI as well as ESG strategies. And while some investors use sustainable investing and impact investing interchangeably, it’s important to remember that not all impact investing is sustainable in nature.

Can SRI or ESG Investing Be Profitable?

The performance of SRI and ESG strategies versus their conventional peers have long been subject to debate. Nonetheless, the value of assets allocated to ETFs with an ESG focus has grown steadily in the last two decades. As of November 2023, according to data from Statista, the value of global assets in ESG funds was $480 billion — a substantial jump from $5 billion in 2006.

Investors interested in SRI and ESG strategies may want to examine the FTSE4Good Index Series: a compilation of stock indexes that track companies that seek to meet certain criteria or achieve certain environmental, social, or corporate governance goals. Morningstar has also developed a sustainability rating system, in use since 2016.

The Takeaway

Investors may want to bear in mind that, with the steady growth of ESG and SRI strategies in the last couple of decades, investment opportunities that focus on having an impact on the world are likely to expand.

In addition, the underlying goal of these strategies is to make a difference and potentially see a profit as well. That said, impact strategies overall don’t reduce investment risk factors; all types of impact investing, including ESG and SRI strategies, are subject to the same economic and market risk factors as conventional strategies.

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Sep

2024

Understanding the Presidential Election Cycle Theory

By Inyoung Hwang | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory suggests that the stock market follows a pattern that correlates with a U.S. president’s four-year term.

The first two years of a term tend to be the weakest for stocks, according to the theory, as the president focuses on fulfilling campaign promises, but the market improves in the latter half of a term as the president pumps up the economy ahead of a new election.

Some historical stock market data does tend to sync up with the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, but past performance is not indicative of future results.

And market researchers and investors tend to be doubtful of the strategy, chalking it up to statistical coincidence as opposed to a real sign of a U.S. president’s power over the market.

They argue that company earnings, global economic data, and Federal Reserve monetary policy tend to be bigger influences on stock prices.

What Is the Election Cycle Theory?

Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has data going back to 1833 in order to study the Presidential Election Cycle Theory. Below are the average stock market percentage gains in the four calendar years after a presidential election, according to the almanac’s 2020 edition.

Hirsch used the Dow Jones Industrial Average to track stock market performance after 1896 and other stock gauges for the years prior:

Postelection year: 3%
Midterm year: 4%
Preelection year: 10.2%
Election year: 6%

In a Wall Street Journal interview in November 2019, however, Jeffrey Hirsch, the son of Yale Hirsch, said that not all the historical data is relevant. Market observers have argued that going further back in history, U.S. presidents had even less sway over the stock market than in current times.

But according to Hirsch, the theory that the stock market is strongest in the third year of a presidential term has held up.

The almanac states that since 1943, in the third year of the presidential election cycle, both the Dow and S&P 500 have been up 15% on average. Meanwhile, since 1971, the Nasdaq indices have climbed 28.8% on average in the third year.

That’s because “incumbent administrations shamelessly attempt to massage the economy so voters will keep them in power,” the almanac states.

Stimulative fiscal measures designed to increase disposable income and a sense of well-being in the voting public have included:

• Increases in federal budget deficits, government spending, and Social Security benefits

• Interest rate cuts on government loans

• Speedups of projected funding

Other points in the Presidential Election Cycle Theory:

• Wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to occur in first two years; prosperity and bull markets in the second two years

• The market performed better in election years when a sitting president is running. Since 1949, the Dow climbed 10.1% during election years when the incumbent is up for reelection vs. 5.3% in all election years and 1.6% in years with an open field

• Times when the stock market rose between August and October in a presidential election year, the incumbent political party has retained power 85% of the time since 1936

• Markets tend to be stronger when the incumbent party in power wins

Does History Back Up the Presidential Election Cycle Theory?

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory hasn’t held up well in recent presidential administrations. The S&P 500 posted a strong gain of 19% in 2017, the first year of President Donald Trump’s term. The market also surged 29% in 2019, Trump’s third year and the best annual performance of his administration.

In each of President Barack Obama’s two terms, the first year saw the best annual performance, with the S&P 500 rallying 23% in 2009 and 30% in 2013.

Separately, the stock market has tended to rise more than fall, making the case that charting patterns with the election cycle may have more to do with coincidence. Since 1833, equity prices have risen in 115 calendar years and fallen in 70, data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows.

Barron’s also noted in November 2019, citing data from Ned Davis Research, that the weakest time in a four-year presidential cycle has historically actually been September of the pre-election year to May of the election year. Once the winner is determined, the market tends to rally regardless of political party.

Other political factors could also be in play, such as midterm elections. Barron’s also wrote in 2018 that the stock market’s performance during midterm election years hasn’t been stellar. Since 1942, the S&P 500 has gained 6% on average in midterm years, compared with 9.1% during the average year, the article stated, citing Ned Davis Research.

What About This Time Around?

Election Day is November 5, 2024, and the new four-year presidential term will start on January 20, 2025.

In the past, uncertainty over the outcome of a presidential election has led to declines in the stock market. In 2000, confusion over hanging chads in the Florida ballot count meant the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore didn’t come to a swift conclusion.

Investor uncertainty over the outcome caused the stock market to plummet. Markets rebounded after the Supreme Court decision that ultimately resulted in a Bush win.

The conventional wisdom on Wall Street has been that a split government usually leads to strength in the stock market, as the division in power will lead to less ambitious policy changes.

So the potential outcome of a Democrat in the White House and both parties splitting Congress could lead to gains for the Dow and S&P 500. That said, business publications have reported that there is little evidence to back this idea up.

In the 45 years that the same party controlled Congress and the presidency, the S&P 500’s average return was 7.45%, the Wall Street Journal found. In the 46 years power was split, the average return was 7.26%. The index actually slightly outperformed when control of the presidency and Congress was unified under one party.

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What Does The Presidential Election Cycle Mean for Investors?

The history of U.S. presidential elections may not be a big enough sample set for making investment decisions.

An array of factors beyond presidential election cycles influences share prices. Investors typically monitor company earnings, global and U.S. economic data, events like natural disasters and pandemics, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Separately, periods of uncertainty—whether in monetary or fiscal policy—can also shape market performance.

Annual returns also don’t capture the stock volatility that could have happened during the year. For instance, the stock market rallied in 2020, but it also entered into a bear market, a drop of 20% or more, in the first half amid investor worries over the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the global economy.

The Takeaway

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory states that the stock market’s performance improves in the four-year terms of US presidents as they gear up for reelection. Some investors say, however, that other factors, like corporate earnings and central bank policy, are bigger influences on share prices.

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How Midterm Elections Can Influence the Stock Market

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Think About Financial Goals

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Understanding the Presidential Election Cycle Theory

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Does History Back Up the Presidential Election Cycle Theory?

What About This Time Around?

What Does The Presidential Election Cycle Mean for Investors?

The Takeaway

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