How Does Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Affect the Markets?

Nonfarm Payroll: What It Is and Its Effect On the Markets

The nonfarm payroll report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the United States. The report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), usually on the first Friday of every month, and is closely watched by economists, market analysts, and traders. The nonfarm payroll report can have a significant impact on financial markets. A strong or weak jobs report may lead to stock market volatility, as investors feel confident or pessimistic about the direction of the economy.

The nonfarm payroll report is just one of many economic indicators that investors can use to gauge the economy’s strength. However, market participants often pay attention because it provides a monthly snapshot of the U.S. economy’s health.

What Are Nonfarm Payrolls?

Nonfarm payrolls are a key economic indicator that measures the number of Americans employed in the United States, excluding farm workers and some other U.S. workers, including certain government employees, private household employees, and non-profit organization workers.

Also known as simply “the jobs report,” the nonfarm payrolls report looks at the jobs gained and lost during the previous month. This monthly data release provides investors with a snapshot of the health of the labor market, and the economy as a whole.

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The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Report, Explained

The nonfarm payroll report is one of two surveys conducted by the BLS that tracks U.S. employment in a data release known as the Employment Situation report. These two surveys are:

•   The Establishment Survey. This survey provides details on nonfarm payroll employment, tracking the number of job additions by industry, the average number of hours worked, and average hourly earnings. This survey is the basis for the reported total nonfarm payrolls added each month.

•   The Household Survey. This survey breaks down the employment numbers on a demographic basis, studying the jobs rate by race, gender, education, and age. This survey is the basis for the monthly unemployment rate reported each month.

When Is the NFP Released?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually releases the nonfarm payrolls report on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 am ET. The BLS releases the Establishment Survey and Household Survey together as the Employment Situation report, which covers the labor market of the previous month.

4 Figures From the NFP Report to Pay Attention To

Investors may look at several specific figures within the jobs report to help inform their investment decisions:

1. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is critical in assessing the economic health of the U.S., and it’s a factor in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the nation’s labor market and the potential for a future recession. A rising unemployment rate could result in economic policy adjustments – like changes in interest rates that impact stocks, both domestically and globally.

Higher-than-expected unemployment could push investors away from stocks and toward assets that they consider more safe, such as Treasuries, potentially triggering a decline in the stock market.

2. Employment Sector Activity

The nonfarm payroll report also examines employment activity in specific business sectors like construction, manufacturing, or healthcare. Any significant rise or fall in sector employment can impact financial market investment decisions on a sector-by-sector basis.

3. Average Hourly Wages

Investors may consider average hourly pay a barometer of overall U.S. economic health. Rising wages may indicate stronger consumer confidence and a more robust economy. That scenario could lead to a rising stock market. However, increased average hourly wages may also signify future inflation, which could cause investors to sell stocks as they anticipate interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

4. Revisions in the Nonfarm Payroll Report

Nonfarm payroll figures, like most economic data, are dynamic in nature and change all the time. Thus, investors watch any revisions to previous nonfarm payroll reports to reevaluate their own portfolios based on changing employment numbers.

How Does NFP Affect the Markets?

Nonfarm payrolls can affect the markets in a few ways, depending on the state of the economy and financial markets.

NFP and Stock Prices

If nonfarm payrolls are unexpectedly high or low, it can give insight into the economy’s future direction. A strong jobs report may signal that the economy is improving and that companies will have increased profits, leading to higher stock prices. Conversely, a weak jobs report may signal that the economy is slowing down and that company profits may decline, resulting in lower stock prices as investors sell their positions.

NFP and Interest Rates

Moreover, nonfarm payrolls can also affect stock prices by influencing the interest rate environment. A strong jobs report may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to prevent an overheated labor market or curb inflation, leading to a decline in stock prices. Conversely, a weak jobs report may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged or even lower them, creating a loose monetary policy environment that can boost stock prices.

Investors create a strategy based on how they think markets will behave in the future, so they attempt to factor their projections for jobs report numbers into the price of different types of investments. An unexpected jobs report, however, could prompt them to change their strategy. Surprise numbers can create potentially significant market movements in critical sectors like stocks, bonds, gold, and the U.S. dollar, depending on the monthly release numbers.

How to Trade the Nonfarm Payroll Report

While long-term investors typically do not need to pay attention to any single jobs report, those who take a more active investing approach may want to adjust their strategy based on new data about the economy. If you fall into the latter camp, you’ll typically want to make sure that the report is a factor you consider, though not the only factor.

You might want to look at other economic statistics and the technical and fundamental profiles of individual securities you’re planning to buy or sell. Then, you’ll want to devise a strategy that you’ll execute based on your research, your expectations about the jobs report, and whether you believe it indicates a bull or a bear market ahead.

For example, suppose you expect the nonfarm payroll report to be positive, with robust job growth. In that case, you might consider adding stocks to your portfolio, as share prices tend to rise more than other investment classes after good economic news. If you believe the nonfarm payroll report will be negative, you may consider more conservative investments like bonds or bond funds, which tend to perform better when the economy slows down.

Or, you might take a more long-term approach, taking the opportunity tobuy stocks at a discount and invest while the market is down.

The Takeaway

The jobs report can be used as one of many economic indicators that investors take into account when weighing their next investment moves. The report offers a snapshot of the health of the labor market, and the economy at large. But it’s important to keep in mind that it’s only one indicator.

Markets move after nonfarm payroll reports, but long-term investors don’t have to change their portfolio after every new government data release. That said, active investors may use the jobs report as one factor in creating their investment strategy.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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What Is the SWIFT Banking System?

What Is the SWIFT Banking System?

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) provides a secure communication network to financial institutions in order to communicate and facilitate cross-border transactions and payments.

The SWIFT system is a critical piece of infrastructure for the international banking system because it allows financial institutions to talk to one another securely. Without access to the SWIFT messaging network, banks are essentially shut out of the global financial system because they cannot speak to banks in other countries to agree to transaction and payment terms.

🛈 Currently, SoFi does not support international money transfers, and therefore does not support IBAN, BIC, or SWIFT codes.

What Is SWIFT?

SWIFT doesn’t hold assets or move money around. Instead, it is a messaging system for banks and other financial institutions. When banks need to conduct business across borders with other financial companies, the SWIFT system allows them to communicate to one another in a secure and standardized manner to ensure reliable transaction terms.

The SWIFT messaging system relies on a standardized system of codes to transmit information and payment instructions. These codes are interchangeably called Bank Identifier Codes (BIC), SWIFT codes, SWIFT IDs, or ISO 9362 codes. Each member of the SWIFT network is assigned a BIC/SWIFT code, providing an efficient transfer of information during transactions.

The SWIFT codes are used so banks and financial institutions can communicate reliably. For example, a bank in the United States wants to make sure it is messaging the right bank in France to set up payment instructions before sending money.

Since SWIFT doesn’t send money, it requires banks to take additional steps to send money globally after communicating with their counterparty. This makes the whole process relatively slow and adds costs to the transfers. The advent of blockchain technology may alleviate these time lags and additional costs as the technology is adopted more broadly.

Format of BIC/SWIFT Code

These codes are unique and have 8 or 11 characters, identifying the bank, country, city, and branch.

•   Bank code (0-9 or A-Z): 4 characters representing the bank.

•   Country code (A-Z): 2 letters representing the country of the bank.

•   Location code (0-9 or A-Z): 2 characters of letters or numbers for the location of the bank.

•   Branch Code (0-9 or A-Z): 3 digits specifying a particular branch. This branch code is optional.

For example, Wells Fargo, with a branch in Philadelphia, has the 11-character SWIFT code PNBPUS33PHL. The first four characters reflect the institute code (PNBP for Wells Fargo), the next two are the country code (US), the following two characters specify the location/city code (33), and the last three characters indicate the individual branch (PHL). The last three characters are optional; if the bank is the head office, the code ends with XXX.

More SWIFT Code Examples
Bank Name Barclays Bank Plc Toronto-Dominion Bank MUFG Bank, Ltd.
SWIFT Code BARCGB22 TDOMCATTTOR BOTKJPJT
Bank Code BARC TDOM BOTK
Country Code GB (United Kingdom) CA (Canada) JP (Japan)
Location Code 22 (London) TT (Toronto) JT (Tokyo)
Branch Code XXX or not assigned (indicates head office) TOR XXX or not assigned (indicates head office)

History of SWIFT

Telex was an early electronic communications system used in the post-World War II period, allowing businesses to send written messages across the globe. Before SWIFT, financial institutions used Telex to communicate with one another to ensure the successful transfer of international payments. However, Telex was slow, lacked security, and was prone to human error because it didn’t run on a standardized system.

To alleviate the problems of Telex, 239 banks from 15 countries joined forces in 1973 to develop a communications network that would provide safe, secure, and standardized messaging for cross-border payments. These banks formed the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication and went live with the SWIFT messaging service in 1977. Soon, SWIFT was widely adopted and became the gold standard for cross-border messaging in the global financial system.

More than 11,000 financial institutions in over 200 countries use the SWIFT system to communicate. It processes tens of millions of messages per day, too. 

Who Controls SWIFT?

Based in Belgium, SWIFT is a member-owned cooperative, meaning that member institutions have stakes in SWIFT and the right to nominate directors to its governing board. This governing board is made up of 25 people from across the globe and overseen by the G-10 country central banks (Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank, Banque de France, Banca d’Italia, Bank of Japan, De Nederlandsche Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, USA Federal Reserve System), the European Central Bank, and the National Bank of Belgium.

Traditionally, SWIFT acts as a neutral party, so it doesn’t make any decisions on sanctions. However, because it operates under Belgian law and European Union regulations, SWIFT will adhere to sanctions imposed by the EU if necessary. This resulted in banks from Iran being kicked off the SWIFT system in 2012 because of the country’s nuclear weapon program. Additionally, in early 2022, several Russian institutions were kicked off of SWIFT after the country invaded Ukraine.

The Future of SWIFT

Because of SWIFT’s significant role in the global financial system, some believe that blockchain technology could circumvent the need to use the SWIFT network. Proponents of decentralized finance believe that these new technologies could increase global payments’ speed, security, and transparency. Just as SWIFT replaced Telex as the standard for messaging in the global financial system, some think that blockchain technology could do the same.

The Takeaway

SWIFT is a critical part of the global financial system. Without the secure messaging services of SWIFT, banks and other financial institutions would struggle to complete transactions and make payments in overseas business. However, the SWIFT system is relatively slow and costly for financial institutions. Even with the safe and secure messaging of SWIFT, cross-border payments and transfers between financial institutions can still take several days to complete. 

In a world that desires high-speed money transfers, this lag in transaction time can be burdensome to banks and other financial institutions. As new challengers in the global financial system, like blockchain technology, breakthrough and become a more mainstream part of the financial payments system, they could put pressure on the ubiquity of the SWIFT system and the overall global payments system.


Photo credit: iStock/Evgeniy Skripnichenko

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How Does a Stock Exchange Work?

How Does a Stock Exchange Work?

Stock exchanges are platforms that allow investors to buy and sell stocks in a venue that is regulated and transparent. These exchanges enable investors of all stripes to trade stocks and other securities, potentially benefiting from a stock’s share price appreciation and dividend payments.

Stock exchanges help the stock market work, and are a big part of the overall economy. Understanding stock exchanges and how they work may help you how they affect you and your investments.

What Is a Stock Exchange?

A stock exchange is a marketplace where the shares of publicly-traded companies are bought and sold between investors.

Exchanges are generally organized by an institution or association that hosts the market, like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. These organizations and government regulators – like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S. – set up the rules and regulations of what companies investors can trade on a stock exchange.

If a company is “listed” on an exchange, it means that the company can be traded on that exchange. Not all companies are listed because each exchange regulates which companies meet their requirements. Companies not listed on the exchange are traded over-the-counter, or OTC for short.

Investors who want to buy or sell stocks commonly trade through an investment broker, a person or entity licensed to trade on the exchanges. Brokers aim to buy or sell stock at the best price for the investor making the trade, usually earning a commission for the service. Most investors will now use online brokerage firms for this service, paying little to no commissions for trades.

Historically, stock exchanges were physical locations where investors came together on a trading floor to frantically buy and sell stocks, like what you may have seen in the movies or on TV. However, these days, more often than not, stock exchanges operate through an electronic trading platform.

Major Stock Exchanges

10 Largest Stock Exchanges by Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
Exchange Location Market capitalization (in trillions)*
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) U.S. $28.8
Nasdaq U.S. $25.43
Euronext Europe $7.15
Shanghai Stock Exchange China $6.52
Tokyo Stock Exchange Japan $6.25
London Stock Exchange U.K. $5.63
Shenzhen Stock Exchange China $4.29
National Stock Exchange of India India $4.53
Hong Kong Exchanges Hong Kong $3.97
Saudi Stock Exchange Saudi Arabia $2.86
*As of August 2024

Why Do We Have Stock Exchanges?

Stock exchanges exist because they provide a place for buyers and sellers to come together and trade stocks. Stock exchanges are also important because they provide a way for businesses to raise money. When companies issue stock to raise capital, investors will then trade the company’s shares on the stock exchange in which it is listed.

The individual stock exchanges set the rules for how stocks are traded. Stock exchanges are also regulated markets, which means that a government agency oversees the activity on the exchange. These rules and regulations provide a level of safety for investors and help to ensure that the market is fair, transparent, and liquid.

💡 Not sure what a stock is? Here we explain what stocks are and how they work.

What Is the Stock Market?

The stock market is made up of a network of different stock exchanges, including OTC markets, and the companies that are traded on these exchanges.

When you hear mentions of the stock market and its performance, it is usually in reference to a particular stock market index, like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, the stock market is more than the specific companies that make up these stock market indices.

Generally, stock markets facilitate the buying and selling of shares between companies and institutional investors through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the primary market. Once a company has an IPO, the company’s shares are traded in secondary markets, like stock exchanges.

Stock Market Volatility

Volatility in the stock market occurs when there are big swings in share prices. Share prices can change for various reasons, like a new product launch or the most recent earnings report. And while volatility in the stock market usually describes significant declines in share prices, volatility can also happen to the upside.

Pros of the Stock Market

As mentioned above, the stock market allows companies to raise capital by issuing shares to investors. Raising money was one of the main reasons why stock issuances and trading began. It allows businesses to raise money to expand a business without taking out a loan or issuing bonds.

And because investors can own shares of companies, they can benefit from the growth and earnings of a business. Investors can profit from a company’s dividend payments, realize a return when the stock’s price appreciates, or benefit from both. This helps investors build wealth.

The relationship between stock markets, companies, and investors has arguably led to more economic efficiency, allowing money to be allocated in more productive ways.

Cons of the Stock Market

For companies, issuing shares on the stock market may be onerous and expensive due to rules and regulations from the stock exchanges and government regulators. Because of these difficulties, companies may be wary of going through the IPO process. Instead, they are more comfortable raising money in the private markets.

There are several potential risks associated with investing in the stock market. For example, the stock market is subject to market volatility, resulting in losses. Investors must be willing to take on the risks of losing money for the possibility of gains in the future.

Additionally, there is the potential for stock market fraud and manipulation by companies and investors, which harms individual investors, companies, and the economy.

💡 Recommended: How Many Companies IPO Per Year?

The Takeaway

A stock exchange is a marketplace where investors can buy and sell stocks or other securities, and where companies can list shares to try and raise capital. There are numerous stock exchanges, but the biggest in the U.S. are the New York Stock Exchange, and the Nasdaq.

Knowing the ins and outs of stock exchanges and how they influence the broader stock market may help you become a better-informed investor. Further, by learning about stock exchanges, their different rules, and their advantages and disadvantages, you may better understand the stock market as a whole. This may allow you to invest confidently and prepare for future stock market volatility.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

FAQ

What is the stock market?

The stock market is a collection of markets where stocks are traded between investors. It usually refers to the exchanges where stocks and other securities are bought and sold.

What are the benefits of investing in the stock market?

Some benefits of investing in the stock market include the potential for earning income through dividend payments, experiencing share price appreciation, and diversifying one’s financial portfolio beyond cash. Note, however, that there are significant risks associated with investing in the stock market, too.


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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Understanding a Retirement Gap Analysis

Understanding a Retirement Gap Analysis

A retirement gap analysis helps individuals identify a potential shortfall between how much they have saved and what they will need in retirement.

Tallying all accounts, projecting ahead, then comparing that amount to how much a fully funded retirement costs, given your unique circumstances, can help people bridge the financial gap between the present and retirement. It’s a great way to visualize how you are tracking towards your retirement goals.

What Is a Retirement Analysis?

A retirement analysis is typically a report a financial advisor creates for individuals who want to know if they are on track for retirement. The analysis can also be done using online tools. Saving for retirement is an important process for those who are looking forward to a secure future with a steady stream of income.

Knowing the difference between what you have saved versus what you will need in order to retire on time is valuable information to determine if you are on track for retirement. If necessary, you can then take extra steps to boost your savings rate once you have a retirement gap analysis and risk assessment performed. This might include such actions as changing your investing strategy or considering annuities, for instance.

A retirement gap analysis considers a range of retirement assets. Your 401(k) through your employer, any individual retirement accounts you might own, annuities, individual taxable brokerage accounts, and even Social Security are common assets to tally in a retirement gap analysis. The sum of those assets is then compared to what you will need in the future, so that you can retire with confidence.

How Do You Conduct a Retirement Gap Analysis?

Conducting a retirement analysis can be done using online tools or by meeting with a financial advisor. It’s all about knowing when you can retire. Often, individuals will take action to improve their financial habits and retirement savings when they see what they must do.

What Goes Into a Retirement Gap Analysis?

For example, a retirement gap on a chart can be a powerful visual to inspire people to save more. Performing a retirement analysis requires careful input of all assets and some assumptions about future rates of return, as well as a person’s spending habits and goals in order to determine how long their savings and other assets may last.

Assets and liabilities are analyzed, and future cash flow is projected. Conducting a retirement analysis also includes estimating how long somebody might live. Longevity risk is a key consideration, and Social Security and annuities can help reduce the risk of running out of money. There are many facets to performing a retirement gap analysis. Seeking out the help of an experienced fiduciary advisor may be helpful so that you are confident in your retirement plan.

How Does Communication Come Into Play?

A critical factor of a retirement analysis is the communication aspect. This is where a financial planner could potentially show their skills.

Simply looking over investment accounts and seeing numbers on a spreadsheet might not cause people to change course on their journey to retirement. Communicating a retirement gap in the right context can help drive home the message that saving more today will lead to a better tomorrow.

How Does a 401(k) Plan Factor Into the Analysis?

A high-level retirement gap analysis should be mixed in with detailed cash flow planning.

Your 401(k) plan is a major account that is assessed during a retirement analysis. An employer-sponsored retirement account is a large part of many workers’ overall retirement plan. A 401(k) gap can be found by analyzing the value of a participant’s pre-tax and Roth accounts versus what they will need to retire.

A 401(k) account often features an employer matching contribution, which is almost like free money so long as you meet the plan’s matching contribution requirements. Many plans will match, say, 50% of the employee’s contribution up to 6%. For a $100,000 salary, that means $3,000 per year of employer contributions, in addition to $6,000 from the employee. That’s $9,000 per year.

A 401(k) account, among other retirement plans offered through work, is typically a major piece of someone’s retirement asset pie. The process to increase contributions to it is generally easy to do. Moreover, the auto-enrollment and auto-escalation features are tools that can help more people save more for retirement so that their 401(k) gap shrinks over time. A 401(k) analysis can be helpful for workers young and old.

Retirement Gap Analysis Example

Let’s run through a retirement gap analysis example to better show the steps involved.

Retirement Gap Analysis, Step-by-Step

Rationale

Retirement Income Assessment: Summing all retirement savings accounts to find a portfolio value. Identifies any potential shortfall between required monthly income and total projected income between Social Security, retirement plans, and other accounts.
Review liabilities and future spending habits. No retirement gap analysis is complete without a thorough assessment of what you owe and current and future spending.
Analyze changes to an individual’s retirement date. Can make arriving at retirement easier if more time is allowed to increase saving.
Strategize about Social Security options. Delaying benefits until age 70 will increase total payout; might reduce longevity risk.
Outlining steps to take to shore up retirement income. Increasing a 401(k) contribution rate can help narrow the retirement gap. Reducing spending and increasing your savings rate are other actions.

How to Calculate Retirement Income

Knowing if your 401(k) is enough is important, but so too is a broader look at your assets and liabilities along with what income to expect in retirement. No retirement gap analysis is complete without it.

Calculating retirement income can be done using various online calculators, but you might want to sit down with a financial planner to map out what income you, personally, will need in retirement. Variables like your spending habits, inflation, discounted cash flow rates, and possible risks all must be considered.

You can also leverage the Social Security Administration’s Retirement Estimator calculator to find out what you should expect to receive when you decide to retire. While the output is just an estimate, it can go a long way toward bridging your retirement gap if you have a gauge of what income you will have in retirement.

Another way to calculate retirement income is to sum up your retirement assets, assume a contribution rate between now and retirement along with a rate of return, then take that asset base as an amount from which to draw income during retirement.

Many planners use the “4% rule”, which states that a retiree can withdraw up to 4% of their retirement account value each year without a high risk of running out of money. This is just a rule of thumb, however, and it might not work as well today as it did decades ago.

Investing for Retirement With SoFi

Identifying where you are on your retirement journey is an important part of financial planning. Doing a retirement gap analysis is an essential part of that process. As time passes, our lives and lifestyles, our goals, and often our physical health can change. All these factors can impact how much we’ll need to spend in the future.

By conducting a retirement gap analysis to identify any shortfalls in savings, it’s possible to make adjustments, and course-correct to get savings goals on track.

Prepare for your retirement with an individual retirement account (IRA). It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. Whether you prefer a hands-on self-directed IRA through SoFi Securities or an automated robo IRA with SoFi Wealth, you can build a portfolio to help support your long-term goals while gaining access to tax-advantaged savings strategies.

Easily manage your retirement savings with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

What is a retirement gap?

A retirement gap is a difference in the amount you have saved for retirement versus how much you will need. A retirement gap analysis can be performed to help identify how much more you will need to save for retirement. Once you know the amount, you can then take steps to boost your savings and investment accounts so that you can retire on time.

How do I find out if I have a retirement account?

Many individuals have a 401(k) or another retirement plan through their employer. Check with your HR department to see if there is an account set up for you. You might also have retirement accounts established on your own through investment brokerage companies. Also consider that you can likely collect a monthly Social Security benefit in retirement. Be sure to check with the Social Security Administration.

Will my retirement account be enough for me?

This is a tough question, but an important one. Knowing how much you will need for retirement is crucial to developing a retirement savings strategy and living a confident retirement. You may want to meet with a financial advisor to develop a plan. You can also use online resources, tools, and calculators to help determine if your current portfolio is enough to fund your retirement.


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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Overweight Stock, Explained

When a financial analyst rates a stock as overweight, it means that the analyst believes an overweight stock will likely outperform other stocks in its industry over the next six to 12 months. Conversely, if they describe a stock as underweight, they believe that it will perform poorly in the future.

It may be helpful to think of these terms as pointers: as if an industry specialist were saying, “You might want to overweight Stock X in your portfolio” or “maybe you should under-weight Stock Y.” These ratings are typically the result of factors in the news or pertaining to a specific company’s prospects. But the terms “overweight” and “underweight” also refer to a stock’s weighting in a relevant index or benchmark.

Key Points

•   An overweight stock rating indicates that analysts expect the stock to outperform its industry peers within the next six to twelve months.

•   The terms overweight and underweight also refer to a stock’s proportion in an investment portfolio, guiding investors on how much to hold.

•   Different market indexes apply unique weighting systems, influencing how stocks are rated as overweight or underweight based on market capitalization or stock price.

•   Investors should be cautious, as an overweight stock may not always lead to significant gains and could lead to portfolio imbalance if not managed properly.

•   The context of both the market and individual portfolios is crucial when interpreting overweight ratings, emphasizing the need for careful investment decisions.

What Is an Overweight Stock?

As noted, an overweight stock is one that analysts believe will outperform others in its sector or market segment in the near future. Similarly, overweight stock is a moniker that may also describe a specific security’s weighting in a portfolio, and one that analysts think investors should buy more of – so, its meaning can be contextual in certain situations.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Types of Ratings and Where They Came From

To understand stock ratings related to weight, it’s important to know that market indexes assign a weight to the investments they track to be sure that the index accurately reflects the performance of that market sector.

For example, the S&P 500® tracks 500 large-cap U.S. companies. The companies in the index — called the constituents — are weighted by market capitalization. A company’s market cap is calculated by multiplying the current share price by the total number of outstanding shares.

Companies in that index are weighted based on the proportion of the overall index their market cap represents. Other indexes may use a different weighting system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, tracks 30 blue chip companies and weights them based on stock price. Companies with a higher share price are given more weight than those with lower prices.

Because of these different weighting systems, it’s important to understand that an overweight to a particular stock with regards to one index may not be the same when it comes to another.

Overweight Stocks

When an analyst rates Stock X as overweight, it’s generally a positive sign. First, they believe Stock X is likely to outperform its benchmark index, or even the market as a whole, depending on market conditions, so investors should consider holding more of the stock.

Bear in mind that an “overweight stock” rating doesn’t necessarily mean that stock is a juggernaut. In a down market, being overweight could simply mean the company might not lose as much ground as its peers, or it might grow less slowly than its peers.

Underweight Stocks

When an analyst rates Stock Y as underweight, the analyst believes that Stock Y is likely to underperform its benchmark, and investors should consider holding less of this stock.

Equal Weight Stocks

When an analyst gives an equal weight rating to a stock, that simply means it’s in line with the overall benchmark. Again, when considering these ratings it’s important to keep in mind the overall context of the market, and what these ratings mean to analysts.

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Example of an Overweight Stock

A very simple example of an overweight stock could be when a stock, Stock X, is selling for $50, but experts and analysts think it’s undervalued and should trade for $75, it could be overweight.

Further, an overweight stock rating can be taken in two ways: First, that the stock will outperform its benchmark index and second that investors may want to take advantage of the increase in price.

When an analyst indicates their belief that a stock will appreciate, they may also state a potential time frame and price target for the stock. So, if Stock X is trading at $75 per share, and the company releases new earnings data that’s positive, an analyst might rate the stock as overweight, with a price target of $100 per share in the coming year.

The Downside of Weighting Stocks

One critique of this rating system is that no analyst, of course, can recommend how many shares investors should buy. It’s simply not possible for analysts to know whether Investor A’s portfolio might benefit from an additional 100 shares of Stock X, while Investor B might want to buy 1,000 shares of Stock X.

As a result, it’s incumbent on individual investor’s themselves to keep an eye on how relevant an overweight stock rating might be for their specific allocation. Buying more of Stock X could, in theory, create an imbalance and reduce a portfolio’s overall diversification. So while an overweight stock might be a good thing, an overweight portfolio usually is not.

How Can Investors Interpret Overweight Stocks?

At first glance, the terms overweight and underweight may seem more or less synonymous with “buy” and “sell” — in that case, why don’t analysts use these more straightforward terms?

In fact, the terms overweight and underweight do have a slightly different connotation than simply to buy or sell a security. Rather, the terms suggest a recommendation that a portfolio hold more or less of a particular position than an index or other benchmarks would suggest.

It may mean acquiring more, or selling some, of a particular investment. But it wouldn’t necessarily mean buying something new or selling all of a position. For example, if your portfolio has an allocation to tech stocks, and an analyst recommends overweighting one of those stocks, you may want to buy more of that company. Or you may not need more growth in your tech holdings, so you might look for an overweight stock.

Also, analysts aren’t always comfortable giving specific directions to buy or sell certain securities. The terms overweight and underweight are more like offering guidance: “Here’s what I think of Stock X or Stock Y. I’ll let the investor take it from here.”

In many cases an overweight or underweight recommendation might not be very useful for investors. For example, if an analyst recommends an overweight to a certain commodity but an investor’s portfolio doesn’t hold any commodities, this information may not have much bearing on their situation.

Can a Portfolio Be Considered Overweight?

Overweight can refer to a portfolio that holds more of a stock or other investments than it theoretically should. For individual investors, this might mean that more of a portfolio is allocated to stock than the investor intended.

For example, say an investor has a portfolio allocation in which 70% of its allocation is held in stock and 30% is held in bonds. If the stock market goes up, the proportion of the portfolio held in stock may grow beyond the 70% mark. At that point, the portfolio may be described as overweight in stocks, and an investor may want to rebalance to bring it in line with their initial allocation plan.

It may come as no surprise that the opposite of an overweight allocation is an underweight allocation. For example, if the stock allocation in the portfolio above fell below 70%, that allocation could be described as underweight in stocks.

The term can also apply in a narrower sense. For example, a stock portfolio could hold too much stock in one company, sector, or geographical region. In each case the holding could be described as overweight.

Professional fund managers may also use overweight to describe portfolios they work with that are off track with their index, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and index funds. From time to time, a fund may get out of line with its benchmark index by holding more or less of an investment that index tracks.

For example, say an index fund is built to track the S&P 500. To track the index, fund managers will usually attempt to hold every stock in the index. Additionally, they will try to match the proportion of each individual company their fund holds to the index as well. So if stock A represents 5% of the original index, the fund will also hold 5% of stock A.

Some funds have a little bit of wiggle room in terms of how far they can stray from the index. Some might be allowed to hold more or less stocks if they think the stocks will outperform or underperform. When they hold more than the index, the managers are taking an overweight position. And when they hold less than the index, the managers are taking an underweight position.

The Takeaway

Overweight stocks are those that may be undervalued by the market. When an analyst gives a stock an overweight rating, broadly speaking it could be a good thing. If the analyst is correct, and the stock is indeed poised to perform better than its benchmark — maybe even better than the market as a whole — investors may want to buy that stock.

But the necessary caveat is that it all depends on context — the context of the market, and the context of an investor’s portfolio overall. You don’t want to buy a stock that could throw your allocation off, and make your portfolio overweight in a way that’s not ideal.

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FAQ

Is overweight stock good?

An overweight stock can be good for investors looking for a relative deal, but it may not be a good thing if the investor already owns shares of the stock.

What is the difference between overweight and outperform stocks?

Outperform stocks and overweight stocks are similar, and the terms are often used interchangeably. But generally, “outperform” may describe a stock that’s undervalued or expected to offer solid returns in the future, but perhaps perform not quite as well as an “overweight” stock.

What is the difference between buy and overweight?

On an analysts’ rating system, “buy” and “overweight” stocks are rated differently, with “buy” being a higher rating – though both ratings are positive.


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


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