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The inflation rate doesn’t directly affect mortgage rates, but the two tend to move in tandem. Rising inflation shrinks purchasing power as prices of goods and services increase. Higher prices can then influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, affecting the cost of borrowing for lending products like mortgages. Then, as inflation cools, mortgage interest rates can be expected to ease as well.

Inflation Rate vs Interest Rates

Several factors may cause inflation, an increase in the overall price of goods and services over time.

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, tracks inflation rates and trends using several key metrics, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to determine how to direct monetary policy. A target inflation rate of 2% is considered ideal for maintaining a stable economic environment over the long run, and many borrowers have been relieved in recent months to see the inflation rate, which trended upward in 2022, begin to ebb, coming closer to the target goal.

Lenders charge interest to borrowers who take out loans and lines of credit as a premium for the right to use the lender’s money.

Higher rates can make borrowing more expensive while also providing more interest to savers. People borrowing less and saving more can have a cooling effect on the economy.

When the economy is slowing down too much, on the other hand, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending.


💡 Quick Tip: SoFi’s Lock and Look ⁺ feature allows you to lock in a low mortgage financing rate for 90 days while you search for the perfect place to call home.

What Affects Mortgage Rates?

Inflation rates don’t have a direct impact on mortgage rates, but there can be indirect effects because of how inflation influences the economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. Instead, the central bank sets the federal funds rate target, the interest rate that banks lend money to one another overnight. A Fed increase in this short-term interest rate often pushes up long-term interest rates for U.S. Treasuries.

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, which are government-issued bonds that mature in a decade. When the 10-year Treasury yield increases, the 30-year mortgage rate tends to do the same.

So in terms of what affects fixed-rate mortgage rates, movement in the 10-year Treasury yield is the short answer. Higher yields can mean higher rates, while lower yields can lead to lower rates. But overall, inflation rates, interest rates, and the economic environment can work together to sway mortgage rates at any given time.

If you track the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate and the average annual inflation rate, you’ll see that the percentages often move more or less in concert. Here’s a look at the past 22 years and some key dramatic years before that.

^*In October 1981 the rate hit a historical peak of 18.45%

Sources: Consumer Price Index and Freddie Mac

Inflation Trends for 2024

In September 2022, the U.S. inflation rate hit 8.2%, well beyond the Federal Reserve’s 2% target inflation rate. While prices for consumer goods and services were up almost across the board, the most significant increases were in the energy category. Many consumers noticed inflation because of increased food prices: In the year ending August 2022, prices for food at home increased 13.5%, the largest 12-month percentage increase since the year ending March 1979. Prices for food away from home increased 8%.

Rising inflation rates in 2021 and 2022 are thought to have been driven by a combination of increased demand for goods and services, shortages on the supply side, and higher commodity prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates — 11 times between March 2022 and October 2023. Mortgage interest rates also trended north to 7%. But the Fed’s measures appear to have had the desired result, putting the brakes on inflation, although it remained above the target. By early 2024, inflation seemed to be moderating when compared to recent years.

Recommended: Understanding the Different Types of Mortgage Loans

Is Now a Good Time for a Mortgage or Refi?

There’s a link between inflation rates and mortgage rates. But what does all of this mean for homebuyers or homeowners? Despite increases, mortgage rates are still below average when viewed through a historical lens. In fact, mortgage-servicing costs are nearly half the size that they were in 2006-2008. As the Fed continues to pursue interest rate bumps, it could make sense to buy or refi sooner rather than later.

Buying a home now could help you lock in a deal on a loan and get a reasonable mortgage rate.

The same is true if you own a home and are considering refinancing your existing mortgage. However, when refinancing a mortgage, the math gets a bit trickier. You might need to determine your break-even point — when the money you save on interest payments matches what you’ll spend on closing costs for a refinance.

To find the break-even point on a refi, divide the closing costs by the monthly savings. If refinancing fees total $3,000 and you’ll save $250 a month, that’s 3,000 divided by 250, or 12. That means it’ll take 12 months to recoup the cost of refinancing.

If you refinance to a shorter-term mortgage, your savings can multiply beyond the break-even point.

Keep in mind that the actual rate you’ll pay for a purchase loan or refinance loan will depend on things like your credit score, income, and debt-to-income ratio.


💡 Quick Tip: Lowering your monthly payments with a mortgage refinance from SoFi can help you find money to pay down other debt, build your rainy-day fund, or put more into your 401(k).

The Takeaway

Inflation appears to be ebbing but homebuyers can likely expect continued variations in interest rates in 2024. It’s true that buying a home or refinancing when mortgage rates are lower could mean substantial savings over the life of your loan. But if you’re ready to buy and your finances are in good shape, it doesn’t make sense to wait for slight changes in interest rates — if you’re ready to own your own home, the time is right for you.

Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.

Photo credit: iStock/Max Zolotukhin

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*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.

⁺Lock and Look program: Terms and conditions apply. Applies to conventional purchase loans only. Rate will lock for 91 calendar days at the time of preapproval. An executed purchase contract is required within 60 days of your initial rate lock. If current market pricing improves by 0.25 percentage points or more from the original locked rate, you may request your loan officer to review your loan application to determine if you qualify for a one-time float down. SoFi reserves the right to change or terminate this offer at any time with or without notice to you.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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Investing can feel like a steep learning curve. In addition to having a clear grasp of types of investment vehicles available and the role investments play in overall financial strategy, it’s a good idea to understand how taxes may affect your investments. Knowing tax implications of various investment vehicles and investment decisions may help an investor tailor their strategy and end up with fewer headaches at tax time.

What Is Investment Income?

Tax requirements for investments can be complicated, and it may be helpful for investors to work with a professional to see how taxes might impact a return on their investment. Doing so might also help ensure that investors aren’t overlooking anything important when it comes to their investments and taxes.

That said, it’s beneficial to enter into any discussion with some solid background information on when and how investments are taxed. Typically, investments are taxed at one or more of these three times:

•   When you sell an asset for a profit. This profit is called capital gains—the difference between what you bought an investment for and what you sold it for. Capital gains taxes are typically only triggered when you sell an asset; otherwise, any gain is an “unrealized gain” and is not taxed.

•   When you receive money from your investments. This may be in the form of dividends or interest.

•   When you have investment income that includes such things as royalties, income from rental properties, certain annuities, or from an estate or trust. This may incur a tax called the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT).

In the following sections, we delve deeper into each of these situations that can lead to taxes on investments.

💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.

Tax Rules for Different Investment Income Types

Capital Gains Taxes on Assets Sold

Capital gains are the profits an investor makes from the purchase price to the sale price of an asset. Capital gains taxes are triggered when an asset is sold (or in the case of qualified dividends, which is explained further in the next section). Any growth or loss before a sale is called an unrealized gain or loss, and is not taxed.

The opposite of a capital gain is a capital loss. This occurs when an investor sells an asset at a lower price than purchased. Why would this happen? That depends on the investor. Sometimes, an investor needs to sell an asset at a suboptimal time because they need the cash, for instance.

At other times, an investor may sell “losing” assets at the same time they sell assets that have gained as a way to minimize their overall tax bill, by using a strategy called tax-loss harvesting. This strategy allows investors to “balance” any gains by selling profits at a loss, which, according to IRS rules, may be carried over through subsequent tax years.

There are two types of capital gains, depending on how long you have held an asset:

•  Short-term capital gains. This is a tax on assets held less than a year, taxed at the investor’s ordinary income tax rate.
•  Long-term capital gains. This is a tax on assets held longer than a year, taxed at the capital-gains tax rate. This rate is lower than ordinary income tax. For the 2023 tax year, the long-term capital gains tax is $0 for individuals married and filing jointly with taxable income less than $89,250, and no more than 15% for those with taxable income up to $553,850. The long-term capital gains tax rate is 20% for those whose taxable income is more than that.

For the 2024 tax year, individuals may qualify for a 0% tax rate on long-term capital gains if their taxable income is $94,050 or less for those married and filing jointly, and no more than 15% if their taxable income is up to $583,750. Beyond that, the tax rate is 20%.

Dividend And Interest Taxes

Dividends are distributions that a corporation, S-corp, trust or other entity taxable as a corporation may pay to investors. Not all companies pay dividends, but those that do typically pay investors in cash, out of the corporation’s profits or earnings. In some cases, dividends are paid in stock or other assets.

Dividends that are part of tax-advantaged investment vehicles are not taxed. Generally, taxpayers will receive a form 1099-DIV from a corporation that paid dividends if they receive more than $10 in dividends over a tax year. All other dividends are either ordinary or qualified:

•  Ordinary dividends are taxed at the investor’s income tax rate.
•  Qualified dividends are taxed at the lower capital-gains rate.

In order for a dividend to be considered “qualified” and taxed at the capital gains rate, an investor must have held the stock for more than 60 days in the 121-day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date. (Additionally, said dividends must be paid by a U.S. corporation or qualified foreign corporation, and must be an ordinary dividend, as opposed to capital gains distributions or dividends from tax-exempt organizations.)

Both ordinary dividends and interest income on investments are taxed at the investors regular income rate. Interest may come from brokerage accounts, or assets such as mutual funds and bonds. There are exceptions to interest taxes based on type of asset. For example, municipal bonds may be exempt from taxes on interest if they come from the state in which you reside.

Total Investment Income and Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)

Net investment income tax (NIIT) is a flat 3.8% surtax levied on investment income for taxpayers above a certain income threshold. The NIIT is also called the “Medicare tax” and applies to all investment income including, but not limited to: interest, dividends, capital gains, rental and royalty income, non-qualified annuities, and income from businesses involved in trading of financial instruments or commodities.

NIIT applies to individuals with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) over $200,000 for single filers and $250,000 for married couples filing jointly. For taxpayers over the threshold, NIIT is applied to the lesser of the amount the taxpayer’s MAGI exceeds the threshold or their total net investment income.

For example, consider a couple filing jointly who makes $200,000 in wages and has a NIIT of $60,000 across all investments in a single tax year. This brings their MAGI to $260,000—$10,000 over the AGI threshold. This would mean the taxpayer would owe tax on $10,000. To calculate the exact amount of tax, the couple would take 3.8% of $10,000, or $380.

Cases of Investment Tax Exemption

Certain types of investments may be exempt from tax implications if the money is used for certain purposes. These investment vehicles are called “tax-sheltered” vehicles and apply to certain types of investments that are earmarked for certain uses, such as retirement or education.

There are two types of tax-sheltered accounts:

•  Tax-deferred accounts. These are accounts in which money is contributed pre-tax and grows tax-free, but taxes are taken out when money is withdrawn. For example, a 401(k) retirement account grows tax-free until you withdraw money, at which point it is taxed.
•  Tax-exempt accounts. These are accounts—such as a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA, or a 529 plan—in which money can be withdrawn tax-free if the funds are taken out according to qualifications. For example, money in a Roth account is not taxed upon withdrawal in retirement.

Beyond investing in tax-sheltered accounts, investors may also choose to research or speak with a professional about tax-efficient investing strategies. These are ways to calibrate a portfolio that might help minimize taxes, build wealth, and reach key portfolio goals—such as ample savings for retirement.

The Takeaway

Dividends, interest, and gains can add up, which is why it’s important for a taxpayer to be mindful of investment taxes not only at tax time, but throughout the year. Understanding the implications of sales and keeping capital gains taxes in mind when planning sales can help investors make tax-smart decisions.

Because there are so many different rules regarding taxes, some investors find it helpful to work with a tax professional. Tax law also varies by state, and a tax professional should be able to help an investor with those taxes as well.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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