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While revolving credit provides borrowers with flexibility, too much revolving debt can be crippling. Even with falling interest rates, the most vulnerable credit card holders can use some help.

Let’s look at ways of dealing with mounting revolving debt. But first, here’s a primer on what revolving debt is and how it differs from installment debt.

A Closer Look at Revolving Debt

There are two main categories of debt: revolving and installment. Revolving credit lets you borrow money up to an approved limit, pay it back, and borrow again as needed. The two most common revolving accounts are credit cards and a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

HELOCs are offered to qualified homeowners who have sufficient equity in their homes. Most have a draw period of 10 years, followed by a repayment period. A less common type of revolving credit is a personal line of credit, usually obtained by an existing customer of a lending institution.

Then there are credit cards, which became part of the American fabric in the 1950s, starting with the cardboard Diners Club card. You can choose to make credit card minimum payments, pay off the entire balance each month, or pay some amount in between. If you don’t pay off the full balance when it’s due, your balance will accrue interest.

That’s one of the quiet dangers of revolving debt: If you haven’t reached your limit, you can continue to borrow while you owe money, which adds to your debt and to the amount of interest accruing on it.

Recommended: Credit Card Rules to Live By

Revolving Debt vs. Installment Debt

Now let’s take a look at installment debt. It differs from revolving debt in a few key ways — namely, how you borrow money, how you pay it back, and how interest is calculated.

Installment credit comes in the form of a loan that you pay back in installments every month until the loan is paid off. Think mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and student loans.

Installment loans can be secured with collateral, or they can be unsecured. Some loans could have fees, and the interest rate may fluctuate, depending on whether you have a fixed or variable rate loan. The loan amount is determined when you’re approved.

There are benefits and drawbacks to both types of debt. Let’s take a look.

Revolving Debt Pros and Cons

Pros:

•   Borrow only what you need

•   Can access credit quickly

•   May qualify for high borrowing limit

Cons:

•   Will have a credit limit

•   Can have high interest rates

•   Can be easy to run up a big balance

Installment Debt Pros and Cons

Pros:

•   Can cover large or small expenses

•   Payments are predicable

•   Can refinance to a lower rate

Cons:

•   Interest applies to the entire loan amount

•   Can’t add to the loan amount once it’s finalized

•   Long repayment terms are possible

Secured and Unsecured Debt

Now is a good time to touch on secured vs. unsecured debt (and why credit card debt is especially pernicious). Mortgages, HELOCs, home equity loans, and auto loans are secured by collateral: the home or car. If you stop making payments, the lender can take the asset.

An unsecured loan does not require the borrower to pledge any collateral. Most personal loans are unsecured. The vast majority of credit cards are unsecured. Student loans are unsecured, and personal lines of credit are usually unsecured.

That means lenders have no asset to seize if the borrower stops paying on unsecured debt. Because of the higher risk to lenders, unsecured credit typically has a higher interest rate than secured credit.

Which leads us to the common credit card trap: The average annual percentage rate (APR) for credit cards accruing interest was 22.63% in early 2024 … and rising. The APR on a credit card includes interest and fees.

Perhaps you can see how “revolvers” — borrowers who carry a balance month to month — can easily get caught in a trap. The average household of credit card revolvers owes $6,380 according to recent data from TransUnion. Some owe much more.

Recommended: Personal Loan vs Personal Line of Credit

Types of Revolving Credit

As we discussed earlier, common types of revolving credit accounts include HELOCs, credit cards, and personal lines of credit. Each type has features and benefits that are worth knowing.

A credit card, for instance, is convenient to use — especially for everyday purchases — and may come with extra benefits like rewards programs, airline miles, or cashback offers. Depending on the card, you might also have access to purchase protection, which reimburses you for damaged or stolen items.

With a HELOC, you leverage your home’s equity to get the funds you need, up to an approved limit, during a typical 10-year draw period. A HELOC can be a good option if you’re looking to pay for home improvements or ongoing expenses or to cover a financial emergency.

Have a less-than-predictable income or facing a major ongoing expense, like a home renovation? If you have good credit, a personal line of credit may be the right choice. It’s flexible, so you can withdraw money as you need it, though your lender may set a minimum draw amount.

How Revolving Debt Can Affect Your Credit Score

Both installment and revolving debt influence your score on the credit rating scale, which typically ranges from 300 to 850.

Your credit utilization ratio is a big factor. It’s the amount of revolving credit you’re using divided by the total amount of revolving credit you have available, expressed as a percentage.

Most lenders like to see a credit utilization rate of 30% or lower, which indicates that you live within your means and use credit cards responsibly.

The most important element of a FICO® Score is payment history. It accounts for 35% of your credit score, so even one late payment — a payment overdue by at least 30 days — will damage a credit score.

And unfortunately, late payments stay on a credit report for seven years.

Tips for Managing Revolving Debt

Ideally, we’d all avoid interest on credit cards by paying off the balance each month. But if you do carry a balance, you have plenty of company. Forty-six percent of Americans carry a balance on active credit card accounts, recent data from the American Bankers Association shows.

If your revolving credit card debt has become unwieldy, there are ways to try to get it under control.

Budget Strategies

The fastest ways to pay off debt call for creating a budget to plan how much you will spend and save each month.

With the avalanche method, for example, you pay off your accounts in the order of highest interest rate to lowest. The 50/30/20 budget works for some people: Those are the percentages of net pay allotted toward needs, wants, and savings.

Debt Consolidation

Do you have high-interest credit card balances? You may be able to transfer that debt to a credit card consolidation loan.

Consolidating high-interest credit card balances into a lower-rate personal loan will typically save you money. Most personal loans come with a fixed rate, which results in predictable payments, and just one a month.

Installment loans do not count toward credit utilization. So using a personal loan to pay off higher-interest revolving debt will lower your credit utilization ratio (a good thing) as long as you keep those credit card accounts open. (Yes, closing a credit card can hurt your credit score.)

Homeowners using a home equity loan or HELOC to consolidate high-interest credit card debt can substantially lower their monthly payments. However, their home will be on the line, and closing costs may come into play.

Another method, cash-out refinancing, is a good move only when a homeowner can get a better mortgage rate and plans to stay in the home beyond the break-even point on closing costs.

Balance Transfer

A balance transfer card is another way to deal with high-interest debt. Most balance transfer credit cards temporarily offer a lower or 0% interest rate. But they may charge a balance transfer fee of 3% to 5%, and they require vigilance.

Make one late payment on the new card, and you’ll usually forfeit the promotional APR and have to pay a sky-high penalty APR. You’ll need to keep track of the day when the promotional rate expires so any balance is not subject to the high rate.

Debt Settlement

A debt settlement company may be able to reduce a pile of unsecured debt. There are many drawbacks to this route, though.

You will usually stop paying creditors, so mounting interest and late fees will cause your balances to balloon. Instead, you’ll make payments to an escrow account held by the debt settlement company. Funding it could take up to four years.

What’s more, your credit scores will be damaged, there is no guarantee of a successful outcome, it can be very expensive, and if a portion of your debt is forgiven, it probably will be considered taxable income.

This and bankruptcy options are considered last resorts. If you do go with a debt settlement company, know that those affiliated with the American Fair Credit Council agree to abide by a code of conduct.

Credit Counseling

A credit counseling service might be able to help. The Federal Trade Commission advises looking for a nonprofit program, but it adds that “nonprofit” does not guarantee that services are free, affordable, or even legitimate.

Look into credit counseling organizations affiliated with the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, National Association of Certified Credit Counselors, or Financial Counseling Association of America.

The Department of Justice keeps a list of approved credit counseling agencies. Also check with state and local consumer agencies.

A credit card hardship program addresses temporary setbacks. However, not all card companies have one.

The Takeaway

Revolving credit offers flexibility, but if left unchecked can devolve into runaway revolving debt. Credit card debt is especially pernicious, thanks to high interest rates charged to revolving balances. Debt consolidation, one approach to tame mounting revolving debt and the stress that comes with it, aims to lower your monthly payments.

Another option to consider is a lower-interest loan. It will result in a smaller monthly payment amount and just one payment to keep track of each month. The personal loan tends to be funded fast, has a fixed rate, and usually comes with no fees required.

Think twice before turning to high-interest credit cards. Consider a SoFi personal loan instead. SoFi offers competitive fixed rates and same-day funding. Checking your rate takes just a minute.

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Investors often pay attention to the ups and downs of economic activity — fluctuations known as the business cycle — and readjust their investments accordingly. With this business cycle investing strategy, investors typically adjust their exposure to various sectors with stocks or bonds in their portfolios. Some industries outperform during economic expansions, while others do better during contractions.

Business cycle investing is not an exact science, and past performance isn’t indicative of future returns. But historically, specific industries have prospered during each stage of the business cycle. Here’s a rundown of the different business cycle stages and which industries have been more favorable to invest in during each phase.

What Is a Business Cycle?

A business cycle refers to the periodic expansion and contraction of a nation’s economy. Also known as an economic cycle, it tracks the different stages of growth and decline in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity.

Worker productivity, population growth, and technological innovations are all factors that can contribute to whether an economy is going through a period of boom or bust. Such elements play a role in how many goods and services a nation’s businesses produce and how much its consumers purchase.

Other factors, such as wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and political instability, can also influence the economy. These can cause a recession to happen sooner or otherwise shift the economic environment of a nation or the world.

In the U.S., the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces whether the economy is in a recession or a new iteration of the business cycle. Policymakers attempt to manage the business cycle by adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, such as taxes, stimulus packages, or interest rates.

Some people refer to business cycles and market cycles interchangeably. However, the business cycle measures the entire economy, while market cycles refer to the ups and downs of the stock market. Although the two can be correlated, they aren’t the same.

How Does the Business Cycle Work?

The business cycle works by alternating between periods of economic growth and decline. During the expansion phase, economic activity grows, and the economy is relatively healthy. A period of economic expansion is typically characterized by low unemployment, rising wages, and increasing consumer and business confidence.

Eventually, the economy will reach its peak and start to contract. This is typically characterized by slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and declining consumer and business confidence. As businesses see a decline in demand, they may lay off workers or reduce production, leading to a downward spiral of declining economic activity.

The trough phase is the lowest point in the business cycle. Economic activity is at its weakest, and unemployment is at its highest. This phase is also known as the recession bottom. From here, the economy begins to recover, and the business cycle starts over again.

How Reliable Is the Business Cycle?

The business cycle is a reliable pattern of economic activity observed over time, but it is not always predictable. Business cycles tend to follow a similar pattern, with periods of expansion followed by periods of contraction, but each phase’s timing, length, and severity can vary significantly.

Stages of the Business Life Cycle

There are four stages of the business cycle, which fall into two phases: a growth phase of expansion and a declining phase of contraction. A business cycle can last anywhere from one year to 10 or more years. Since 1945, there have been 12 business cycles.

Stage 1: Recession

The recession phase is the lowest point in the business cycle. Also known as the contraction phase, a weak economy and high unemployment define this period.

GDP, profits, sales, and economic activity decline during this stage. Credit is tight for both consumers and businesses due to the policies set during the last business cycle. It’s a vicious cycle of falling production, incomes, employment, and GDP.

The intensity of a recession is measured by looking at the three Ds:

•   Depth: The measure of peak-to-trough decline in sales, income, employment, and output. The trough is the lowest point the GDP reaches during a cycle. Before World War II, recessions used to be much deeper than they are now.

•   Diffusion: How far the recession spreads across industries, regions, and activities.

•   Duration: The amount of time between the peak and the trough.

A severe recession is called a depression. Depressions have deeper troughs and last longer than recessions. The only depression that has happened thus far was the Great Depression, which lasted 3.5 years, beginning in 1929.

Recessions generally lead to shifts in monetary policy and government spending that lead to a recovery phase.

Stage 2: Early Cycle

Following a recession, the economy enters an expansion phase, where there tends to be a sharp recovery as growth begins to accelerate. The stock market tends to rise the most during this stage, which generally lasts about one year. Because of loose monetary policy by the central bank, interest rates are low, so businesses and consumers can borrow more money for growth and investment. GDP begins to increase.

Just as a recession is a vicious cycle, recovery is a virtuous cycle of rising income, employment, GDP, and production. And similar to the three D’s, a recovery period, which includes Stages 2-4, is measured using three P’s: how pronounced, pervasive, and persistent the expansion is.

Stage 3: Mid-Cycle

The mid-cycle phase is generally the longest phase of the business cycle, with moderate growth throughout. On average, the mid-cycle phase lasts three years. Monetary policies shift toward a neutral state: interest rates are higher, credit is strong, and companies are profitable.

Stage 4: Late Cycle

At this stage, economic activity reaches its highest point, and while growth continues, its pace decelerates. Monetary policies become tight due to rising inflation and low unemployment, making it harder for people to borrow money. The GDP rate begins to plateau or slow.

Companies may be engaging in reckless expansions, and investors are overconfident, which increases the price of assets beyond their actual value. Late cycles last a year and a half on average.

What Industries Do Well During Each Stage?

Historically different industries have prospered during each stage of the business cycle, depending on whether they are cyclical or non-cyclical stocks.

When money is tight and people are concerned about the economy, they cut back on certain purchases, such as vacations and pricey clothes. Also, when people anticipate a recession, they tend to sell stocks and move into less-risky assets, causing the market to decline.

Industries do better or worse depending on supply and demand, and the need for specific products shifts throughout the business cycle. In general, the following sectors perform well during each stage of the business cycle:

Recession

During the recession phase, the lowest point in the business cycle, economic activity is at its weakest, and unemployment is at its highest. Many industries may struggle during this phase, especially those dependent on consumer spending or business investment.

However, certain industries are able to weather the storm during a recession because they offer products and services that people need no matter how the economy is performing. These industries include healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities.

Recommended: How to Invest During a Recession

Early Cycle

During the early cycle expansion phase, when economic activity is growing and the economy is healthy, many industries tend to do well. These can include consumer-oriented sectors, such as retail and leisure, as well as industries that benefit from increased business investment, such as construction and manufacturing. Other sectors that benefit from increased borrowing due to low interest rates include financial services, real estate, and household durables.

Mid-Cycle

During the mid-cycle phase, when the economy is operating near full capacity, some industries may start to see slowing growth or declining profits. These can include industries sensitive to changes in consumer demand or highly competitive, such as technology and media. However, some industries perform well during the mid-cycle, like information technology and energy, because companies in these areas deploy capital that helps them grow.

Late Cycle

During the late cycle, economic activity slows down and the labor market shows signs of weakness. Additionally, the economy may face inflationary pressures due to the previous period of economic growth and low unemployment. While this inflationary pressure and economic slowdown negatively impact many industries, utilities and energy companies may do well during this period. Additionally, investors could research stocks that do well during volatility.

Who Should Invest With the Business Cycle?

Business cycle investing involves trying to anticipate changes in the business cycle and buying or selling assets based on the expected performance of those assets during different phases of the business cycle. For example, an investor following a business cycle investing strategy might buy stocks when the economy is expanding and sell them before the peak in anticipation of a downturn.

However, this active online investing strategy is not suited for everyone. Investing and rebalancing a portfolio with the business cycle is difficult because timing the market is easier said than none. Business cycle investing is best for investors who have the time to stay up to date with the latest economic indicators and stock market news while also having the risk tolerance to time the market.

In contrast, some investors prefer a long-term buy and hold strategy, in which they don’t try to time the market and make few changes to their portfolio. For many investors, that may actually be a wiser strategy, though it’ll depend on the individual investor’s preferences, strategy, and goals.

Recommended: Is Stock Market Timing a Smart Investment Strategy?

Pros and Cons of Business Cycle Investing

Business cycle investing involves trying to anticipate and profit from changes in the business cycle. The goal is to buy assets likely to do well during certain business cycle phases and sell them before the next phase begins.

However, investors should note that the business cycle is not always predictable, and there are no guarantees that a business cycle investing strategy will be successful. Thus, it’s good to consider the pros and cons of business cycle investing.

Pros

The advantages of using a business cycle investing approach include the following:

•   The ability to potentially profit from changes in the business cycle: By anticipating and acting on changes in the business cycle, investors may profit from the upswing of a recovery or the downtrend of a recession.

•   A framework for decision-making: The business cycle provides a framework for analyzing economic trends and making investment decisions. This can help investors make more informed decisions about buying or selling assets.

•   Diversification: Business cycle investing can help investors diversify their portfolio by adding assets likely to do well in different phases of the business cycle.

Cons

The disadvantages of using a business cycle investing approach include the following:

•   Difficulty in predicting the business cycle: The business cycle is not always predictable, and it can be difficult to anticipate changes in the economic environment. This can make it challenging for investors to implement a business cycle investing strategy successfully.

•   Market volatility: Business cycle investing can involve buying and selling assets at different points in the business cycle, exposing investors to stock volatility.

•   Opportunity cost: By focusing on the business cycle, investors may fail to take advantage of opportunities to invest in assets that are not correlated to the business cycle but may still provide strong returns.

The Takeaway

No business cycle is identical, but history shows there can be a rough pattern to which industries do better as the economy expands and contracts. Investors can take cues from which stage of the business cycle the economy is in order to allocate money to different sectors.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

FAQ

What is an investment cycle exactly?

An investment cycle is a pattern of investment activity that occurs over time, usually in conjunction with the business cycle. It is typically characterized by periods of rising prices followed by periods of declining prices. The length and severity of the investment cycle can vary, and various factors, including economic conditions, market trends, and investor sentiment, can influence it.

How long are investment cycles?

The length of investment cycles can vary significantly, depending on economic activity and investor sentiment. Some investment cycles may last only a few months, while others may last several years or more.

What are the 4 stages of investment cycles?

The four stages of an investment cycle are expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.

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