The federal funds rate is a key interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, and likely the most closely watched indicator of where the U.S. economy may be headed next. Changes to the federal funds rate provide insight into the Fed’s position on monetary policy and how it plans to respond to economic factors, including inflation and employment levels.
In September, 2024, the Fed announced a rate cut of 50 basis points (a half percentage point), lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75% to 5%. This was the first rate cut made in four years, marking a pivotal shift from the Fed’s policy of holding higher interest rates in place to battle the persistent inflation that followed COVID-19 rate cuts.
The Fed also signaled rates could drop an additional 50 basis points by the end of 2024, with more to follow, as it drives toward a more neutral rate.
Changes to the federal funds rate almost invariably create a ripple effect of changes throughout the economy, impacting interest rates on loans, mortgages, and savings. Here’s a closer look at the Federal Reserve and how its economic outlook and policies can impact your accounts.
Learn more: SoFi’s Liz Young Thomas Looks at the Fed’s September Statement
Q: What Is the Federal Reserve?
A: The Federal Reserve System was founded by Congress in 1913, with the primary goal of promoting the stability of the U.S. banking system. Since then, the Fed’s mandate and methods have evolved — today the work includes regulating financial institutions, directing monetary policy, managing inflation, and keeping employment rates high. And one of the key levers it pulls to those ends is adjusting the federal funds rate.
Q: What Is the Federal Funds Rate?
A: The federal funds rate is a benchmark interest rate that guides the interest rates U.S. banks use when lending excess reserves to other banks overnight. Banks frequently borrow money from one another to ensure they have sufficient reserves to cover consumer withdrawals and other commitments. While changes to the federal funds rate most immediately impact the rates banks use for overnight lending, they influence consumer interest rates as well.
The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), an arm of the Federal Reserve System responsible for setting a range of monetary policies that can influence inflation, economic growth, and the job market. The FOMC is made up of 12 members who meet approximately every six weeks to review their stance on economic policies, including whether they should adjust the federal funds rate.
Q: What Factors Influence the Fed’s Rate?
A: The FOMC determines interest rate policy based on a wide range of economic indicators including inflation, employment levels, and durable goods orders data, which can provide insight into the economic health of a variety of industries such as technology, transportation, and manufacturing.
When these market indicators suggest that the economy is languishing, the FOMC may reduce the federal funds rate to make borrowing less expensive in the hopes of boosting economic activity. More money in consumers’ pockets typically means more spending and more money streaming into the economy.
When prices are rising too quickly, the FOMC may increase its interest rate, making it more expensive to borrow. That can slow spending and, in theory, help keep inflation in check.
Q: How Does the Fed Influence My Savings APY?
A: As mentioned above, the federal funds rate directly influences the interest rates banks use to borrow from or lend money to one another. But secondary effects eventually impact the wider economy, including the interest rates banks and financial institutions use when lending money through credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages. It can also affect the annual percentage yield, or APY, for savings accounts.
A federal rate decrease should eventually translate into lower interest rates when you borrow money to buy a house or car. It may also lead to a lower APY on your savings account.
When the federal rate increases, on the other hand, it becomes more expensive to borrow money, and savings account APYs typically increase.
Because savings account APYs are variable, they tend to rise or fall in the wake of federal rate changes. There are some types of savings accounts with rates that are fixed for a period of time — such as fixed-rate certificates of deposits (CDs). However, federal funds rate changes influence the rates financial institutions offer their customers for new CDs.
Q: Do Other Factors Influence My Savings APY?
A: Federal funds rate changes have a substantial influence on saving account APYs — but they are not the only factor.
Some banks offer high-yield savings accounts with APYs that are considerably higher than the national average rate. Online-only banks and credit unions generally have less overhead than traditional brick-and-mortar banks, which may allow them to offer higher APYs.
Competition among banks for consumer deposits may also drive changes to the APYs they offer. Larger banks tend to be less dependent on deposits than those with a smaller regional presence, for example, so those smaller banks may offer higher rates to attract depositors.
Even among these different scenarios, however, the Fed’s interest rate adjustments can still influence whether these banks’ APY rates rise or fall over time.
Recommended: What Is a Good Interest Rate for a Savings Account?
Q: How Has the Fed Adjusted Rates Recently?
A: After the economic crisis of 2008, the Fed upheld a near-zero rate policy for seven years as the economy normalized. Rates began to tick up gradually in 2015 until the COVID-19 pandemic upended the economy in 2020. The FOMC followed with two steep rate cuts to encourage economic activity, at the time, bringing interest rates down to historic lows.
This maneuver worked, but also contributed to the highest inflation rate the U.S. had seen in decades. In response, the Fed initiated a series of fund rate increases, culminating in a rate of 5.25% to 5.50% in July 2023 — the highest rate in 23 years — which the Fed held in place in a bid to inch inflation toward its 2% target.
September, 2024, however, marked a major pivot in the Fed’s policy as they announced their first rate cut in four years: an aggressive 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to 4.75% to 5%, with additional rate cuts expected to be announced in upcoming FOMC meetings.
Federal Funds Target Rate (2015-2024)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Q: When Will the Next Rate Change Come?
A: The FOMC typically convenes eight times per year. Though it does not necessarily adjust rates at every meeting, the outcome of these meetings is always watched closely, due to the broad impact rate changes have on the national and even global economy. Given that the Federal Reserve’s September 2024 rate drop is expected to be the first in a series of cuts, investors and consumers will almost certainly be closely monitoring the FOMC’s next moves.
In addition, banks and financial institutions sometimes adjust their own interest rates ahead of FOMC meetings, especially when economic conditions or signals from the Fed suggest a rate change may be forthcoming. The Fed publishes the schedule of FOMC meetings on its website.
The Takeaway
While the FOMC sets the federal funds rate to directly influence the rates banks use to lend money to each other, the rate has a broader effect on the U.S. economy, impacting many financial services and products including personal loans, mortgages, and savings accounts.
Photo credit: iStock/Sadeugra
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