InvestHL Archives | Page 27 of 52

Sep

2023

What Is Tax Lien Investing?

By Colin Dodds | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Tax lien investing involves an investor buys the claim that a local government makes on a property when an owner fails to pay their property taxes. Each year, states and municipalities sell billions of dollars in tax liens to the public.

The lien itself is a legal claim of ownership that a city or county makes against any property whose owner hasn’t paid taxes. The government then sells those claims, usually at auction, to investors. It is considered an alternative investment and a way to get real estate exposure in a portfolio.

How Tax Lien Investing Works

Tax lien investing involves an investor purchasing a property at auction that currently has a tax lien against it. They pay off the lien, and then the property is theirs, typically purchased as an investment.

If an investor wins a tax lien certificate at auction, they must immediately pay the state or local government the full amount of the lien. Then entitled to collect the property’s tax debt, plus interest and penalty fees. The interest that the property owner must repay the investor varies from state to state, but is usually in the 10%-12% range, using a simple interest formula. Some states charge as much as 2% per month on tax liens.

Property Tax Liens Explained

Between 2009 and 2022, historically low interest rates led many income-oriented investors have started to look more closely into buying tax lien certificates as a way to generate more returns from their portfolios. With relatively high interest rates, tax liens offer one way to generate investment income. Unlike many other interest rates, the rates on property taxes aren’t affected by market fluctuations, or decisions by the Federal Reserve. Instead, state statutes set the interest rates on overdue taxes.

That makes tax liens a potentially attractive alternative investment in a period of rock-bottom interest rates. But they come with their own unique risks. For starters, the investor only realizes the high interest rates if the property owner agrees to pay them.

The fact that the property owner is delinquent on their taxes may indicate, however, that they’re in a bad state financially, and unable to pay back the new owner of the lien. In that case, the only way for an investor to recoup the initial cost of buying the lien, plus interest and penalty fees, is to foreclose on the property and sell it. In that situation, the investor gets the money from the proceeds from the sale.

The good news for tax lien investors is that the lien certificate they receive from the local government usually supersedes other liens on the property, including any mortgages on it. That entitles the tax-lien investors to full proceeds from a foreclosure sale in most cases. The only creditor on a property who may have priority over tax-lien investors is the federal government for liens imposed by the Internal Revenue Service.

The bad news is that the lien certificates don’t, in any circumstances, give the investor ownership of the property. In cases where the property owner doesn’t pay the investor the money owed, a tax-deed foreclosure is the only way an investor can get paid.Those proceedings, along with eviction, repairs and other costs, can cut into returns made by the investor.

💡 Quick Tip: Did you know that opening a brokerage account typically doesn’t come with any setup costs? Often, the only requirement to open a brokerage account — aside from providing personal details — is making an initial deposit.

How to Buy Tax Liens

Not every state allows the public auction of overdue property taxes, but thousands of municipalities and counties across the country currently sell tax debt to the public.

For a new investor, one place to start looking into buying tax liens is by getting in touch with your local tax revenue official. They can point you to the publication of overdue taxes. Most states advertise property tax lien sales for before the actual sale. Most of the time, these advertisements let you know the property owner, the legal description of the property, and the amount of delinquent taxes.

How Do Tax Lien Sales Work?

Tax lien sales often, or mostly, happen at auction. The auctions themselves vary by municipality and state. Some are online, and others are in person. Some operate by having the investors bid on the interest rate. In this auction format, the municipality sets a maximum interest rate, and the investors then offer lower interest rates, with the lowest bidder winning the auction.

In another popular auction format, investors bid up a premium they’re willing to pay on the lien. In this format, the bidder who’s willing to pay the most — above and beyond the value of the lien — wins. But the investor can also collect interest on that premium in many cases.

If that sounds like too much work and research, investors can access this unique asset class by purchasing shares in a tax lien fund run by an institutional investor. Institutional investors may have the research, focus, and experience new investors may not have, or want to develop. Professional investors also have experience with some of the litigation and other expensive pitfalls that can come with a property foreclosure.

Tax Lien Investing Risks

As a financial asset, tax liens offer a unique opportunity for income, but they also have their own set of risks. The first is the property itself. The neighborhood and condition of the property make a difference in the value of the property and the ease with which an investor can sell it.

Another investment risk to keep in mind is that some owners may never pay back the property taxes they owe, and if the value of the property, after foreclosure, may not pay back the money invested in the lien. Investors also may have to deal with a property embroiled in litigation, or on which other creditors have a claim. This is one area where research can make a big difference.

Also, liens don’t last forever. They come with expiration dates, after which the owner can no longer foreclose on the property or collect overdue taxes and interest from the property owner. In some cases, investors will pay taxes on the property to which they own the lien for years, just to keep a claim on the underlying property. This can be a smart strategy if it gets the investor the property at a lower price, but it can also create opportunity costs.

Finally, the overall returns on tax liens are going down in many cases, as more large institutional investors start bidding on tax lien auctions. More bidders drive down the interest rates or drive up the premiums, depending on the auction format.

Benefits to Investing in Tax Liens

Investing in tax liens also has its potential benefits, including the chance of generating outsized returns (but keep the risks in mind, too). Sometimes, properties can be purchased for a relative bargain — such as a few hundred or a few thousand dollars, which can obviously be attractive to investors, though it may not be typical. Tax lien investing is another way to diversify a portfolio as well.

The Takeaway

Tax lien investing involves buying the claim that a local government makes on a property when an owner fails to pay their property taxes. Once an investor buys that claim, they then pay off the back taxes, and take ownership of the property. Each year, states and municipalities sell billions of dollars in tax liens to the public, making for ample opportunity.

Tax lien investment can offer an alternative investment that balances out a diversified portfolio, but it has many risks that individual investors should understand. Of course, there are plenty of other ways that investors can put their money to work for them.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

How can you get started in tax lien investing?

Prospective tax lien investors can get in touch with local tax officials to learn more about tax liens in their area, or do some internet searches to find when and where auctions are taking place. They can then bid and potentially win a claim on a property.

What’s the difference between tax liens and mortgage liens?

Tax liens are placed on a property by the government for unpaid property taxes, whereas a mortgage lien is placed on a property by a lender in order to secure it for a borrower failing to pay their home loan.

Are IRS tax liens public record?

IRS tax liens are federal tax liens, and are public record. The IRS will file a public document to alert others in the even that a federal lien is being placed on your property.

Photo credit: iStock/nortonrsx

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

SOIN0723169

Sep

2023

The Effects of Deadweight Loss

By Matthew Zeitlin | invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

Deadweight loss is the term used to describe societal or economic losses caused out of inefficiencies. It’s an economic term, and refers specifically to losses created as a result of a lack of equilibrium in supply and demand models — or, in other words, when resources are not being used as efficiently as possible.

This can have larger impacts on the overall economy, which can trickle down and have an effect on the markets and on investors, too. As such, investors would do well to understand the concept, and how it may impact their portfolios.

What Is Deadweight Loss?

As noted, deadweight loss refers to inefficiencies created by a misallocation or inefficient allocation of resources, and is an important economic concept. Deadweight loss is often due to government interventions such as price floors or ceilings, or inefficiencies within a tax system.

To understand more fully, it can be helpful to think about how government interventions can impact the equilibrium between supply and demand.

First: How to Calculate Surplus

In order to know how to calculate deadweight loss, we must first be able to calculate surplus.

Typically, a business will only sell something if they can do so at a price that’s greater than what they paid for it themselves, and a consumer will only buy something if it’s at or less than the price they want to pay for it — the same principle as generating a stock profit.

Scenario A — The Equilibrium: Let’s imagine a store selling comic books for $10 each. The store buys the comic books from the wholesaler for $5 and sells them for $10, pocketing $5 of “producer surplus.” Before the store opened, comic book readers would go over to the other town to buy comic books for $15, the price they were willing to pay, but now can buy them for $10. This $5 difference between the price they’re willing to pay is the “consumer surplus”.

In this case, let’s say the store is able to sell 1,000 comic books, that means the combined producer and consumer surplus is $10,000.

Breakdown:

• P₁ = Producer’s Cost of a Comic Book = $5

• P₂ = Producer’s Price to Sell a Comic Book = $10

• P₃ = Price A Consumer Pays = $10

• P₄ = Price A Consumer Is Willing to Pay = $15

• Units Sold = 1,000

• Producer Surplus = (P₂ – P₁) * Units Sold = ($10 – $5) * 1,000 = $5,000

• Consumer Surplus = (P₄ – P₃) * Units Sold = ($15 – $10) * 1,000 = $5,000

• Total Surplus₁ = Producer Surplus + Consumer Surplus = $5,000 + $5,000 = $10,000

Deadweight Loss Graph

Deadweight loss can be found on a supply and demand graph, or supply and demand curve. That graph generally shows the relationship between supply and demand with two lines that intersect at an equilibrium point, with a downward-sloping demand line and an upward-sloping supply line.

On such a graph, deadweight loss can be found to the left of the equilibrium point, comprising both the consumer surplus and consumer surplus.

Common Causes of Deadweight Loss

There can be several causes of deadweight loss, but some of the most common are government-mandated changes to markets. Examples include price floors, such as a minimum wage, which can create some inefficiencies in the labor market (there may be workers who would be willing to work for less than minimum wage). Price ceilings, also can create deadweight loss — an example could be rent control. Finally, taxes can create deadweight loss, too.

💡 Quick Tip: How do you decide if a certain trading platform or app is right for you? Ideally, the investment platform you choose offers the features that you need for your investment goals or strategy, e.g., an easy-to-use interface, data analysis, educational tools.

How to Calculate Deadweight Loss

To properly calculate deadweight loss, you need to be able to represent the supply and demand of the goods being sold graphically in order to determine prices. According to the laws of supply and demand, the higher a price goes, the fewer of that item will get sold; and vice versa.

Example of Deadweight Loss

Scenario B — Imposed Tax: Let’s go back to our comic book example and imagine that the town’s government imposes a $2 tax on comic books.

What happens to the price of comic books and the surplus generated by the sales of comic books? If consumers had to buy comic books to live (and for some, it may feel that way) and there were no other way to buy them, then the comic book seller could simply bump up prices $2 and sell 1,000 comic books for $12 each, maintaining his $5 of producer surplus on each comic book sold with $2 going to the government and consumer surplus of $3.

In this case the combined consumer and producer surplus is lower — $5 × 1,000 + $3 × 1,000 = $8,000. So there’s a missing $2,000 of what economics call “gains from trade.” But, the government is collecting $2,000, so the money does not disappear from the economy.

The government can buy things, hire people, and literally send money to people, via economic stimulus, meaning the tax revenue does not disappear from the economy.

But, despite how fervently people want them, comic books are not a necessity in the same way food is and remember that comic book store in the neighboring town? If the demand for comic books can not literally be unchanged by its price, that means the comic book seller may think twice about passing on the tax fully on to his customers and that any price increase will result in some comic books going unsold.

If he were to increase the price to $12, thus passing on the tax to his customers, he may not be able to sell enough comic books to maintain the revenue he needs to keep his store open, so he lowers the price to $11, thus splitting the tax between himself and his buyers but still reducing the number of total comic books sold. In this case, let’s say he sells 600 comic books instead of 1,000.

The combined consumer and producer surplus is $4,800 ($4 × 600 + 600 × $4) with $1,200 of tax collected (600 × $2) meaning there’s a total of $6,000 of consumer surplus, producer surplus, and government revenue. In this case the deadweight loss is $4,000.

Breakdown:

• P₁ = Producer’s Cost of a Comic Book = $5

• P₂ = Producer’s Price to Sell a Comic Book = $9

• P₃ = Price A Consumer Pays = $11

• P₄ = Price A Consumer Is Willing to Pay = $15

• Units Sold = 600

• Tax = $2/Comic Book

• Producer Surplus = (P₂ – P₁) * Units Sold = ($9 – $5) * 600 = $2,400

• Consumer Surplus = (P₄ – P₃) * Units Sold = ($15 – $11) * 600 = $2,400

• Gains From Trade (Tax) = $2 * 600 = $1,200

• Total Surplus₂ = Producer Surplus + Consumer Surplus + Gains From Trade = $6,000

• Deadweight Loss = Total Surplus₁ – Total Surplus₂ = $10,000 – $6,000 = $4,000

The higher price, created through taxation, has impacted the equilibrium between supply and demand and created a deadweight loss — the surplus that evaporates due to fewer transactions happening between the comic book seller and the readers.

While this is a rather extreme example of what happens when taxes force up prices, it’s a good way of thinking about how deadweight losses are more than just items getting more expensive. Rather, the deadweight loss formula can illustrate the evaporation of mutually beneficial economic transactions due to different types of taxes.

Deadweight loss of taxation refers specifically to deadweight loss that occurs due to taxes, but a similar impact can occur when a government puts price floors or ceilings on items.

Why Investors Should Care About Deadweight Loss

Deadweight loss can affect investors in a number of ways, and it’s important to consider it when looking at different types of investments. One of the most debated issues in economics is the effects that the tax system has on income, investment, and economic growth in the short and long run.

Some argue that income taxes, payroll taxes (the flat taxes on wages that fund Social Security and Medicare) and capital gains taxes work like the comic book tax described above, preventing otherwise beneficial transactions from happening and reducing the economic gains available to all sides. There’s evidence on all sides of this debate, and the effects of tax rates on overall economic growth are, at best, unclear.

As an investor, deadweight loss might matter when it comes to companies or sectors impacted by specific taxes, such as sales taxes or excise taxes on alcohol or cigarettes. Deadweight loss shows how taxes on specific items can not only reduce profitability by increasing a company’s tax bill, but also affect revenue by reducing overall sales or driving down prices that businesses can charge or receive from buyers. As an investor, this knowledge and insight can be useful when allocating capital between companies, sectors, or types of assets.

The Takeaway

Deadweight loss is the result of economic inefficiencies, and it can affect an investor’s portfolio if it results in slower sales and revenues for businesses. It’s a large economic concept, and may not have a day-to-day direct impact on the stock market. But it’s still good for investors to know the basics of deadweight loss and how it applies to them.

There are myriad economic concepts investors should pay attention to, and deadweight loss is merely one of them. Studying deadweight loss and related concepts can help investors plan for the future and work toward their financial goals.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

Why does a monopoly cause a deadweight loss?

A monopoly can cause deadweight loss because competitive markets create competition and fairer prices. A monopoly distorts prices, leading to inefficiencies.

Can deadweight loss be a negative value?

No, deadweight loss cannot be a negative value, but it can be zero. Zero deadweight loss would mean that demand is perfectly elastic or supply is perfectly inelastic.

Is deadweight loss market failure?

Deadweight loss is not a market failure, but rather, the societal costs of inefficiencies within a market. Market failures can, however, create deadweight loss.

Photo credit: iStock/akinbostanci

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Sep

2023

What Is Efficient Frontier?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

The efficient frontier is a financial framework that investors can use to build an optimized asset portfolio that attempts to give them the greatest returns within their particular risk profile. In other words, it shows which investment portfolio will be “efficient” or provides a higher expected return for a lower amount of risk. It does not, however, eliminate risk for investors, which is important to keep in mind.

It’s visualized as a curved line on a graph according to an individual’s goals and risk tolerance. The framework is called the efficient frontier or the efficiency frontier because if one’s investments fall within the ideal range, they are working efficiently to achieve one’s goal.

How Does the Efficient Frontier Work?

The efficient frontier concept is a key facet of modern portfolio theory, which was created in 1952 by Harry Markowitz. Essentially, the efficient frontier is the optimal baseline for an investment portfolio. If an investor’s portfolio gives them lower returns because it contains riskier investments, then it may not be as well balanced as it could or should be. It’s also possible for a portfolio to provide returns that are greater than the frontier. As such, as long as a portfolio’s potential returns justify its associated risks, then the portfolio is well-allocated.

Every investor has a different risk tolerance, and their own corresponding goals for portfolio growth. Accordingly, every investor has a different frontier. By adjusting that frontier, the inventors can then see if their current portfolio measures up to the parameters set by the efficient frontier graph, and make changes to their asset allocation accordingly.

💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.

How Is the Efficient Frontier Constructed?

Investors hoping to utilize the efficient frontier concept as a part of their strategy will create a corresponding graph, and apply it to their specific portfolio.

When constructing the graph, expected returns are on the y-axis and the standard deviation of returns, which are a measure of risk, are on the x-axis. Then, they would plot a curve that shows where the ideal or expected portfolio would land on the graph and the standard deviation of returns.

Once the graph is created, the investor can plot a portfolio or individual asset on the graph according to its expected returns and their standard deviation, and then compare it to the efficient frontier curve. The investor can also plot two or more portfolios on the graph to compare them.

A portfolio that falls on the right side of the graph has a higher level of risk, while a portfolio that is low on the graph has lower returns. If an investor finds that their portfolio doesn’t fall on the graph where they would like it to, they can then make decisions about how to reallocate investments to move closer to the goal.

The curved line reflects the diminishing marginal return to risk. Adding more risk to a portfolio doesn’t result in an equal amount of increased return. Portfolios that lie below the curve on the graph are suboptimal because they don’t provide high enough returns to justify their amount of risk. Portfolios to the right of the curve are also suboptimal because they have a high level of risk for their particular level of return.

Again, the portfolios that display the lowest levels of risk are not inherently risk-free, which investors will need to keep in mind.

Efficient Frontier Example

Efficient frontier can be a somewhat difficult concept to visualize, so consider this: Your portfolio contains two assets. Each asset has its own respective expected annual return, and standard deviation — so multiple variables for each asset.

Data sets for each can be put together showing correlated expected returns and standard deviations, and plotted on a graph, as discussed. That graph will reveal the efficient frontier, and help investors determine which portfolio they’d prefer accordingly.

Again, it’s somewhat difficult to visualize, but practically speaking, a visual chart with different portfolios can be helpful in making portfolio decisions.

Benefits of the Efficient Frontier

The primary benefit of the efficient frontier is that it helps investors visualize and understand whether their investment portfolio is performing the way they would like it to. Every investment and portfolio comes with some risk, and oftentimes with more risk there is more reward. But it’s important to make sure that your returns are worth the risk, and to remember that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment or portfolio.

Investors can use the efficient frontier to analyze the current performance of a portfolio and figure out which assets to adjust, potentially liquidate, or reallocate. Investors can also see if a particular asset is giving them the same reward with less risk than other assets. In this case, they might want to sell the higher risk asset and put more funds into the lower risk asset.

How Do Investors Use the Efficient Frontier Model?

Using an efficient frontier model is one method of building a portfolio made of different types of investments that have the optimal balance of risk and return. No portfolio is without risk, and investors do need to reallocate investments on occasion to continue optimizing toward their goal. But the optimal portfolio would have a balance of high-risk, high-reward investments and more stable investments that still get decent returns.

There is often an assumption that investments with greater risk provide greater returns — as noted. Although this is sometimes true, the optimal portfolio holds both high risk and low risk assets, according to the efficient frontier.

If an investor has a higher tolerance to risk, they could choose to own a higher percentage of investments on the right end of the efficient frontier graph with higher risk and higher return. If an investor is more conservative, they could choose to hold lower-risk assets.

Proponents of efficient frontier claim that more diversified portfolios tend to be closer to the efficient frontier line than less diversified portfolios, and therefore have lower levels of risk, though they’re not risk-free.

Limits and Downsides of the Efficient Frontier

The main downside of using the efficient frontier tool is that it creates a curve with a normal distribution, which doesn’t necessarily always match reality. Real investments may vary within three standard variations of the mean curve. This “tail risk” means there are limits to the conclusions you can draw from the efficient frontier graph.

Another issue is that investors don’t always make rational decisions and avoid risk. Market decisions involve many complex factors that the efficient frontier does not factor into its calculations. Instead, the efficient frontier assumes that people always avoid risk and make investing decisions rationally.

Finally, the efficient frontier assumes that the number of investors in a market has no impact on market prices, and that all investors have the same access to borrow money with risk-free interest rates.

Investors using the efficient frontier should understand its limitations and might consider using it in conjunction with other tools for analyzing an investment strategy.

The Takeaway

The efficient frontier is one of many useful methods of analyzing portfolios and creating a long-term investing plan. It involves utilizing a financial framework to build an optimized asset portfolio with aims to maximize their potential gains within their particular risk profile. It also involves visuals to help investors get a better sense of where their portfolio stands. Investors should remember that it is not a tool that will help them completely remove risk from their investment portfolio or allocation.

It’s also a relatively high-level investing concept and tool that many investors may not feel comfortable using. There are plenty of strategies and tools that can be utilized in its stead, of course, and it may be worthwhile to consult with a financial professional if investors feel they’re in over their heads.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

What are common assumptions of the efficient frontier model?

Common assumptions of the efficient frontier model include that asset returns will follow a more or less common distribution, that investors will act rationally, and that riskier investments inherently lead to larger returns.

Can the efficient frontier be negative?

The efficient frontier model cannot be negative, as a negative figure would imply that an investor garnered losses from a given set of potential portfolios. That means that the investor was not actually investing.

What is the difference between efficient frontier and efficient portfolio?

The efficient frontier is a set of investment portfolios expected to provide the highest return for a specific risk level. Efficient portfolio, on the other hand, is a single portfolio that provides the highest return for a specific risk level.

Photo credit: iStock/undrey

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Sep

2023

Cyclical vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: Investing Around Economic Cycles

By Rebecca Lake | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Cyclical investing means understanding how various stock sectors react to economic changes. A cyclical stock is one that’s closely correlated to what’s happening with the economy at any given time. The performance of non-cyclical stocks, however, is typically not as closely tied to economic movements.

Investing in cyclical stocks and non-cyclical stocks may help to provide balance and diversification in a portfolio. This in turn may help investors to better manage risk as the economy moves through different cycles of growth and contraction.

Cyclical vs Non-Cyclical Stocks

There are some clear differences between cyclical vs. non-cyclical stocks, as outlined:

	Cyclical Stocks	Non-Cyclical Stocks
Perform Best During	Economic growth	Economic contraction
Goods and Services	Non-essential	Essential
Sensitivity to Economic Cycles	Higher	Lower
Volatility	Higher	Lower

A cyclical investing strategy can involve choosing both cyclical and non-cyclical stocks. In terms of how they react to economic changes, they’re virtual opposites.

Cyclical stocks are characterized as being:

• Strong performers during periods of economic growth

• Associated with goods or services consumers tend to spend more money on during growth periods

• Highly sensitive to shifting economic cycles

• More volatile than non-cyclical stocks

When the economy is doing well a cyclical stock tends to follow suit. Share prices may increase, along with profitability. If a cyclical stock pays dividends, that can result in a higher dividend yield for investors.

Non-cyclical stocks, on the other hand, share these characteristics:

• Tend to perform well during periods of economic contraction

• Associated with goods or services that consumers consider essential

• Less sensitive to changing economic environments

• Lower volatility overall

A non-cyclical stock isn’t completely immune from the effects of a slowing economy. But compared to cyclical stocks, they’re typically less of a roller-coaster ride for investors in terms of how they perform during upturns or downturns. A good example of a non-cyclical industry is utilities, since people need to keep the lights on and the water running even during economic downturns.

💡 Quick Tip: Look for an online brokerage with low trading commissions as well as no account minimum. Higher fees can cut into investment returns over time.

Cyclical Stocks

In the simplest terms, cyclical stocks are stocks that closely follow the movements of the economic cycle. The economy is not static; instead, it moves through various cycles. There are four stages to the economic cycle:

• Expansion. At this stage, the economy is in growth mode, with new jobs being created and company profits increasing. This phase can last for several years.

• Peak. In the peak stage of the economic cycle, growth begins to hit a plateau. Inflation may begin to increase at this stage.

• Contraction. During a period of contraction, the economy shrinks rather than grows. Unemployment rates may increase, though inflation may be on the decline. The length of a contraction period can depend on the circumstances which lead to it.

• Trough. The trough period is the lowest point in the economic cycle and is a precursor to the beginning of a new phase of expansion.

Understanding the various stages of the economic cycle is key to answering the question of what are cyclical stocks. For example, a cyclical stock may perform well when the economy is booming. But if the economy enters a downturn, that same stock might decline as well.

Examples of Cyclical Industry Stocks

Cyclical stocks most often represent companies that make or provide things that consumers spend money on when they have more discretionary income.

For example, that includes things like:

• Entertainment companies

• Travel websites

• Airlines

• Retail stores

• Concert promoters

• Technology companies

• Car manufacturers

• Restaurants

The industries range from travel and tourism to consumer goods. But they share a common thread, in terms of how their stocks tend to perform during economic highs and lows.

Examples of Non-Cyclical Industry Stocks

Non-cyclical industry stocks would be shares of companies that are more insulated from economic downturns than their cyclical counterparts. It may be easier to think of them as companies that are probably going to see sales no matter what is happening in the overall economy. That might include:

• Food producers and grocers

• Consumer staples

• Gasoline and energy companies

Cyclical Stock Sectors

The stock market is divided into 11 sectors, each of which represents a variety of industries and sub-industries. Some are cyclical sectors, while others are non-cyclical. The cyclical sectors include:

Consumer Discretionary

The consumer discretionary sector includes stocks that are related to “non-essential” goods and services. So some of the companies you might find in this sector include those in the hospitality or tourism industries, retailers, media companies and apparel companies. This sector is cyclical because consumers tend to spend less in these areas when the economy contracts.

Financials

The financial sector spans companies that are related to financial services in some way. That includes banking, financial advisory services and insurance. Financials can take a hit during an economic downturn if interest rates fall, since that can reduce profits from loans or lines of credit.

Industrials

The industrial sector covers companies that are involved in the production, manufacture or distribution of goods. Construction companies and auto-makers fall into this category and generally do well during periods of growth when consumers spend more on homes or cars.

Information Technology

The tech stock sector is one of the largest cyclical sectors, covering companies that are involved in everything from the development of new technology to the manufacture and sale of computer hardware and software. This sector can decline during economic slowdowns if consumers cut back spending on electronics or tech.

Materials

The materials sector includes industries and companies that are involved in the sourcing, development or distribution of raw materials. That can include things like lumber and chemicals, as well as investing in precious metals. Stocks in this sector can also be referred to as commodities.

Cyclical Investing Strategies

Investing in cyclical stocks or non-cyclical stocks requires some knowledge about how each one works, depending on what’s happening with the economy. While timing the market is virtually impossible, it’s possible to invest cyclically so that one is potentially making gains while minimizing losses as the economy changes.

For investors interested in cyclical investing, it helps to consider things like:

• Which cyclical and non-cyclical sectors you want to gain exposure to

• How individual stocks within those sectors tend to perform when the economy is growing or contracting

• How long you plan to hold on to individual stocks

• Your risk tolerance and risk capacity (i.e. the amount of risk you’re comfortable with versus the amount of risk you need to take to realize your target returns)

• Where the economy is, in terms of expansion, peak, contraction, or trough

For example, swing trading is one strategy an investor might employ to try and capitalize on market movements. With swing trading, you’re investing over shorter time periods to reap gains from swings in stock prices. This strategy relies on technical analysis to help identify trends in stock pricing, though you may also choose to consider a company’s fundamentals if you’re interested in investing for the longer term.

How to Invest in Cyclical Stocks

Investors can invest in cyclical stocks the same way they do any other type of stock: Purchasing them through a brokerage account, or from an exchange.

One way to simplify cyclical investing is to choose one or more cyclical and non-cyclical exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investing in ETFs can simplify diversification and may help to mitigate some of the risk of owning stocks through various economic cycles.

The Takeaway

Cyclical stocks tend to follow the economic cycle, rising in value when the economy is booming, then dropping when the economy hits a downturn. Non-cyclical stocks, on the other hand, tend to behave the opposite way, and aren’t necessarily as affected by the overall economy.

Investing around economic cycles is a viable strategy, but it has its potential pitfalls. Investors who do their homework may be able to successfully invest around economic cycles, but it’s important to consider the risks involved.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

What are indicators of cyclical stocks?

A few examples of indicators of cyclical stocks include the earnings per share data reported by public companies, which can give insight into the health of the economy, along with beta (a measure of volatility of returns) and price to earnings ratios.

What is the difference between cyclicality vs. seasonality?

While similar, cyclicality and seasonality differ in their frequency. Seasonality refers to events or trends that are observed annually, or every year, whereas cyclicality, or cyclical variations can occur much less often than that.

How do you mitigate the risk of investing in cyclical stocks?

Investors can use numerous strategies to mitigate the risk of investing in cyclical stocks, such as sector rotation and dollar-cost averaging.

Photo credit: iStock/Eoneren

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SOIN0723162

Sep

2023

Could Hyperinflation Occur in the United States?

What Is Hyperinflation: Can It Happen in the US?

By Brian O'Connell | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Hyperinflation occurs when prices for goods and services rise uncontrollably. It is an economic condition that fuels nightmares for consumers and for economists alike.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke, there have been more than 60 documented instances of hyperinflation since the 1700s, and in every instance, economic conditions deteriorated so fast that in all cases, national currencies failed, meaning that they lost nearly all of their purchasing power both domestically and internationally.

That begs a key question: Could hyperinflation come in the United States? And, if so, could hyperinflation take down the U.S. dollar and trigger a recession?

Theoretically, the answer is “possibly.” Realistically, the answer is “not likely.” Let’s take a look at hyperinflation and evaluate the possibility of inflation on steroids taking root in the U.S. economy.

What Is Hyperinflation?

If you’re still not quite clear on what is hyperinflation, economists define the term as when the price of goods and services rises uncontrollably over a specific timeframe, with no short-term economic remedy able to bring those prices back down again.

While figures linked to hyperinflation vary, some economists say hyperinflation occurs when the price of goods and services in a country’s economy rise by 50% over the period of one month.

The causes of hyperinflation typically stem from a skyrocketing boost in a country’s money supply without any accompanying economic growth. That scenario usually occurs when a country’s government essentially prints and spends money in short-term bursts, thus triggering a rise in that country’s money supply.

When a government pursues a high level of short-term economic spending at a rate significantly higher than the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rate, more money flows through the economy. When that happens, the real value of a nation’s currency declines, the price of goods and services rises, and inflation spikes.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening an investment account, know your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. These fundamentals will help keep your strategy on track and with the aim of meeting your goals.

Is Hyperinflation Coming to the United States?

While U.S. inflation rates and the prices of many goods and services are on the upswing, economists dismiss the notion that U.S. hyperinflation is looming for the country for several reasons. First, it’s important to remember that hyperinflation and inflation aren’t the same thing, and the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates if inflation concerns grew.

According to data published in September 2023, the annual U.S. inflation rate was 3.7% for the 12 months that ended in August 2023. That’s a significant drop from June of 2022, when the inflation rate was 9.1%, which was led by certain items such as airline tickets, lumber, and hotel rates. Many economists attributed this to ongoing inventory shortages and supply chain issues and the release of post-pandemic pent-up demand.

Even the largest inflation rate in U.S. history — 23% in June, 1920 — wouldn’t come close to approaching hyperinflation levels of 50% in a month. Still, ongoing inflation is something that the U.S. economy hasn’t seen in more than four decades, and it’s a risk that investors may want to consider when devising their portfolio strategy.

How Can Hyperinflation Affect the United States?

Economists have largely downplayed the chances of a hyperinflation in the USA, but with inflation on the rise, it’s helpful for consumers to get a better grip on hyperinflation, in particular, and on inflation in general.

Hyperinflation Causes:

These are some of the typical causes of hyperinflation:

Falling Dollar Value

Like most major global currencies, the dollar trades on foreign currency exchanges. When a country faces inflationary risks, investors grow skittish, and may bypass that country’s currency in favor of more stable currencies. Even without hyperinflation, a weaker dollar can significantly hurt the U.S. economy.

(Hyperinflation is the extreme opposite of what happens during deflation, in which prices for goods and services decline and the value of a currency rises.)

Fewer Major Purchases

As inflation seeps into an economy, high prices may prompt individuals and businesses to defer or cancel large purchases. Consumers, for example, could hold off buying new homes, new vehicles, or major household appliances. Businesses might postpone big-ticket purchases like heavy machinery, office buildings, and commercial vehicles.

Some investors may hesitate to put money into stocks in a down market. All of those decisions could stall economic growth, as fewer dollars are circulating through the economy.

Monetary Policy

When inflation occurs, banks and financial institutions may not lend money or extend credit to consumers and businesses, as confidence in the overall economy wanes.

The economic fix for skyrocketing inflation typically comes from a country’s central bank. In the United States, that would be the Federal Reserve. When necessary, the Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to slow rising inflation by curbing the U.S. money supply, often by raising interest rates. Higher interest rates give consumers and businesses more incentive to save and less incentive to spend. That, in turn, slows rising inflation.

Recommended: What Is Monetary Policy?

Lower Investment Returns

Inflation eats into real investment returns. As the value of a dollar declines, investors need to earn more than their average return on investment in order to generate the same purchasing power.

How to Combat Hyperinflation

Individuals can’t do much to combat hyperinflation on their own. In fact, during hyperinflation, economies and societies can break down or collapse. Fortunately, periods of hyperinflation are rare. And remember, the 3.7% inflation rate as of August 2023 in the U.S. is nowhere near the levels of 50% in a month, which is when many economists believe hyperinflation occurs.

That said, there are things that might help individuals lessen the impact regular or high inflation might have on their investments. These actions include having a balanced and diversified portfolio, and investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), in which the principal amount invested adjusts with inflation.

💡 Quick Tip: Are self-directed brokerage accounts cost efficient? They can be, because they offer the convenience of being able to buy stocks online without using a traditional full-service broker (and the typical broker fees).

Real-World Examples of Hyperinflation

Zimbabwe offers a relatively recent example of hyperinflation. Just over a decade ago, Zimbabwe’s inflation rate stood at a staggering 98% daily inflation rate as the country’s economy went into free fall. That means consumer prices doubled on a daily basis.

Today, the Zimbabwe dollar is very weak, as the country continues to struggle with the issues that often lead to hyperinflation, such as an increased money supply, political corruption, and a major decline in economic activity.

Even historically stable country economies have experienced hyperinflation.

In the immediate aftermath of World War I, the Weimer Republic of Germany fell into economic decline due to war reparation debts and significantly reduced economic activity. The German government printed too much money in an effort to handle its economic obligations and to ignite a stagnant economy. The country faced an inflation rate of 323% per month by November, 1923 — that’s an annual inflation rate of three billion percent.

In today’s dollars, the consumer impact of hyperinflation is particularly onerous. For example, a small cup of coffee that normally would cost $3 would cost $22 at a 1,000% inflation rate. Similarly, a rental payment for an apartment in a major U.S. city might normally cost $2,000. With a 1,000% inflation rate, that rent would cost $22,000.

Hyperinflation also exists on the world’s economic stage in 2023. Venezuela, for example, has an estimated inflation rate of about 400%.

The Takeaway

While hyperinflation is certainly an economic condition any country would strive to avoid, there’s no compelling evidence suggesting it’s on the U.S. economic horizon — now or anytime in the near future. Still, the country has been in an inflationary period since 2022, so investors may consider using some inflation-hedging strategies to reduce its impact.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

How does hyperinflation differ from regular inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising in a given economy. Hyperinflation is considered out-of-control inflation, at levels of about 50% in one month, and it can be a sign that a severe economic crisis is on the horizon.

Has the United States ever experienced hyperinflation in its history?

No. The closest the U.S. has come to hyperinflation is when annual inflation peaked at almost 30% during the Revolutionary War in 1778.

Are there any warning signs or indicators that could suggest the onset of hyperinflation?

Signs that might suggest that hyperinflation could happen include significant price increases of goods and services (such as increases of 50% in one month), the value of a country’s currency plummets, and economic activity slows or stops.

How can individuals protect their assets and finances during periods of hyperinflation?

Hyperinflation is quite rare, especially in countries with a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, that works to control inflation. However, there are things an investor might do to help limit the impact regular inflation might have. This includes having a balanced and diversified portfolio, and investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), in which the principal invested adjusts with inflation.

Photo credit: iStock/milindri

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

What Is Tax Lien Investing?

How Tax Lien Investing Works

Property Tax Liens Explained

How to Buy Tax Liens

How Do Tax Lien Sales Work?

Tax Lien Investing Risks

Benefits to Investing in Tax Liens

The Takeaway

FAQ

How can you get started in tax lien investing?

What’s the difference between tax liens and mortgage liens?

Are IRS tax liens public record?

The Effects of Deadweight Loss

What Is Deadweight Loss?

First: How to Calculate Surplus

Deadweight Loss Graph

Common Causes of Deadweight Loss

How to Calculate Deadweight Loss

Example of Deadweight Loss

Why Investors Should Care About Deadweight Loss

The Takeaway

FAQ

Why does a monopoly cause a deadweight loss?

Can deadweight loss be a negative value?

Is deadweight loss market failure?

What Is Efficient Frontier?

How Does the Efficient Frontier Work?

How Is the Efficient Frontier Constructed?

Efficient Frontier Example

Benefits of the Efficient Frontier

How Do Investors Use the Efficient Frontier Model?

Limits and Downsides of the Efficient Frontier

The Takeaway

FAQ

What are common assumptions of the efficient frontier model?

Can the efficient frontier be negative?

What is the difference between efficient frontier and efficient portfolio?

Cyclical vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: Investing Around Economic Cycles

Cyclical vs Non-Cyclical Stocks

Cyclical Stocks

Examples of Cyclical Industry Stocks

Examples of Non-Cyclical Industry Stocks

Cyclical Stock Sectors

Consumer Discretionary

Financials

Industrials

Information Technology

Materials

Cyclical Investing Strategies

How to Invest in Cyclical Stocks

The Takeaway

FAQ

What are indicators of cyclical stocks?

What is the difference between cyclicality vs. seasonality?

How do you mitigate the risk of investing in cyclical stocks?

What Is Hyperinflation: Can It Happen in the US?

What Is Hyperinflation?

Is Hyperinflation Coming to the United States?

How Can Hyperinflation Affect the United States?

Hyperinflation Causes:

Falling Dollar Value

Fewer Major Purchases

Monetary Policy

Lower Investment Returns

Get up to $1,000 in stock when you fund a new Active Invest account.*

Access stock trading, options, alternative investments, IRAs, and more. Get started in just a few minutes.

How to Combat Hyperinflation

Real-World Examples of Hyperinflation

The Takeaway

FAQ

How does hyperinflation differ from regular inflation?

Has the United States ever experienced hyperinflation in its history?

Are there any warning signs or indicators that could suggest the onset of hyperinflation?

How can individuals protect their assets and finances during periods of hyperinflation?

CATEGORIES

JOIN THE COMMUNITY

Student Loan Refinancing

Personal Loans

Online Investments

Other

Student Loan
Refinancing

Personal
Loans

Online
Investments