What is an Overweight Portfolio?

InvestHL Archives

Aug

2024

Overweight Stock, Explained

By AJ Smith | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

When a financial analyst rates a stock as overweight, it means that the analyst believes an overweight stock will likely outperform other stocks in its industry over the next six to 12 months. Conversely, if they describe a stock as underweight, they believe that it will perform poorly in the future.

It may be helpful to think of these terms as pointers: as if an industry specialist were saying, “You might want to overweight Stock X in your portfolio” or “maybe you should under-weight Stock Y.” These ratings are typically the result of factors in the news or pertaining to a specific company’s prospects. But the terms “overweight” and “underweight” also refer to a stock’s weighting in a relevant index or benchmark.

Key Points

• An overweight stock rating indicates that analysts expect the stock to outperform its industry peers within the next six to twelve months.

• The terms overweight and underweight also refer to a stock’s proportion in an investment portfolio, guiding investors on how much to hold.

• Different market indexes apply unique weighting systems, influencing how stocks are rated as overweight or underweight based on market capitalization or stock price.

• Investors should be cautious, as an overweight stock may not always lead to significant gains and could lead to portfolio imbalance if not managed properly.

• The context of both the market and individual portfolios is crucial when interpreting overweight ratings, emphasizing the need for careful investment decisions.

What Is an Overweight Stock?

As noted, an overweight stock is one that analysts believe will outperform others in its sector or market segment in the near future. Similarly, overweight stock is a moniker that may also describe a specific security’s weighting in a portfolio, and one that analysts think investors should buy more of – so, its meaning can be contextual in certain situations.

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Types of Ratings and Where They Came From

To understand stock ratings related to weight, it’s important to know that market indexes assign a weight to the investments they track to be sure that the index accurately reflects the performance of that market sector.

For example, the S&P 500® tracks 500 large-cap U.S. companies. The companies in the index — called the constituents — are weighted by market capitalization. A company’s market cap is calculated by multiplying the current share price by the total number of outstanding shares.

Companies in that index are weighted based on the proportion of the overall index their market cap represents. Other indexes may use a different weighting system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, tracks 30 blue chip companies and weights them based on stock price. Companies with a higher share price are given more weight than those with lower prices.

Because of these different weighting systems, it’s important to understand that an overweight to a particular stock with regards to one index may not be the same when it comes to another.

Overweight Stocks

When an analyst rates Stock X as overweight, it’s generally a positive sign. First, they believe Stock X is likely to outperform its benchmark index, or even the market as a whole, depending on market conditions, so investors should consider holding more of the stock.

Bear in mind that an “overweight stock” rating doesn’t necessarily mean that stock is a juggernaut. In a down market, being overweight could simply mean the company might not lose as much ground as its peers, or it might grow less slowly than its peers.

Underweight Stocks

When an analyst rates Stock Y as underweight, the analyst believes that Stock Y is likely to underperform its benchmark, and investors should consider holding less of this stock.

Equal Weight Stocks

When an analyst gives an equal weight rating to a stock, that simply means it’s in line with the overall benchmark. Again, when considering these ratings it’s important to keep in mind the overall context of the market, and what these ratings mean to analysts.

Example of an Overweight Stock

A very simple example of an overweight stock could be when a stock, Stock X, is selling for $50, but experts and analysts think it’s undervalued and should trade for $75, it could be overweight.

Further, an overweight stock rating can be taken in two ways: First, that the stock will outperform its benchmark index and second that investors may want to take advantage of the increase in price.

When an analyst indicates their belief that a stock will appreciate, they may also state a potential time frame and price target for the stock. So, if Stock X is trading at $75 per share, and the company releases new earnings data that’s positive, an analyst might rate the stock as overweight, with a price target of $100 per share in the coming year.

The Downside of Weighting Stocks

One critique of this rating system is that no analyst, of course, can recommend how many shares investors should buy. It’s simply not possible for analysts to know whether Investor A’s portfolio might benefit from an additional 100 shares of Stock X, while Investor B might want to buy 1,000 shares of Stock X.

As a result, it’s incumbent on individual investor’s themselves to keep an eye on how relevant an overweight stock rating might be for their specific allocation. Buying more of Stock X could, in theory, create an imbalance and reduce a portfolio’s overall diversification. So while an overweight stock might be a good thing, an overweight portfolio usually is not.

How Can Investors Interpret Overweight Stocks?

At first glance, the terms overweight and underweight may seem more or less synonymous with “buy” and “sell” — in that case, why don’t analysts use these more straightforward terms?

In fact, the terms overweight and underweight do have a slightly different connotation than simply to buy or sell a security. Rather, the terms suggest a recommendation that a portfolio hold more or less of a particular position than an index or other benchmarks would suggest.

It may mean acquiring more, or selling some, of a particular investment. But it wouldn’t necessarily mean buying something new or selling all of a position. For example, if your portfolio has an allocation to tech stocks, and an analyst recommends overweighting one of those stocks, you may want to buy more of that company. Or you may not need more growth in your tech holdings, so you might look for an overweight stock.

Also, analysts aren’t always comfortable giving specific directions to buy or sell certain securities. The terms overweight and underweight are more like offering guidance: “Here’s what I think of Stock X or Stock Y. I’ll let the investor take it from here.”

In many cases an overweight or underweight recommendation might not be very useful for investors. For example, if an analyst recommends an overweight to a certain commodity but an investor’s portfolio doesn’t hold any commodities, this information may not have much bearing on their situation.

Can a Portfolio Be Considered Overweight?

Overweight can refer to a portfolio that holds more of a stock or other investments than it theoretically should. For individual investors, this might mean that more of a portfolio is allocated to stock than the investor intended.

For example, say an investor has a portfolio allocation in which 70% of its allocation is held in stock and 30% is held in bonds. If the stock market goes up, the proportion of the portfolio held in stock may grow beyond the 70% mark. At that point, the portfolio may be described as overweight in stocks, and an investor may want to rebalance to bring it in line with their initial allocation plan.

It may come as no surprise that the opposite of an overweight allocation is an underweight allocation. For example, if the stock allocation in the portfolio above fell below 70%, that allocation could be described as underweight in stocks.

The term can also apply in a narrower sense. For example, a stock portfolio could hold too much stock in one company, sector, or geographical region. In each case the holding could be described as overweight.

Professional fund managers may also use overweight to describe portfolios they work with that are off track with their index, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and index funds. From time to time, a fund may get out of line with its benchmark index by holding more or less of an investment that index tracks.

For example, say an index fund is built to track the S&P 500. To track the index, fund managers will usually attempt to hold every stock in the index. Additionally, they will try to match the proportion of each individual company their fund holds to the index as well. So if stock A represents 5% of the original index, the fund will also hold 5% of stock A.

Some funds have a little bit of wiggle room in terms of how far they can stray from the index. Some might be allowed to hold more or less stocks if they think the stocks will outperform or underperform. When they hold more than the index, the managers are taking an overweight position. And when they hold less than the index, the managers are taking an underweight position.

The Takeaway

Overweight stocks are those that may be undervalued by the market. When an analyst gives a stock an overweight rating, broadly speaking it could be a good thing. If the analyst is correct, and the stock is indeed poised to perform better than its benchmark — maybe even better than the market as a whole — investors may want to buy that stock.

But the necessary caveat is that it all depends on context — the context of the market, and the context of an investor’s portfolio overall. You don’t want to buy a stock that could throw your allocation off, and make your portfolio overweight in a way that’s not ideal.

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FAQ

Is overweight stock good?

An overweight stock can be good for investors looking for a relative deal, but it may not be a good thing if the investor already owns shares of the stock.

What is the difference between overweight and outperform stocks?

Outperform stocks and overweight stocks are similar, and the terms are often used interchangeably. But generally, “outperform” may describe a stock that’s undervalued or expected to offer solid returns in the future, but perhaps perform not quite as well as an “overweight” stock.

What is the difference between buy and overweight?

On an analysts’ rating system, “buy” and “overweight” stocks are rated differently, with “buy” being a higher rating – though both ratings are positive.

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Aug

2024

What Is Bond Valuation?

By Mike Zaccardi, CMT, CFA | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

Bond valuation is a way of determining the fair value of a bond. Bond valuation involves calculating the present value of the bond’s future coupon payments, its cash flow, and the bond’s value at maturity (or par value), to determine its current fair value or price. The price of a bond is what investors are willing to pay for it on the secondary market.

When an investor buys a bond from the issuing company or institution, they typically buy it at its face value. But when an investor purchases a bond on the open market, they need to know its current value. Because a bond’s face value and interest payments are fixed, the valuation process helps investors decide what rate of return would make that bond worth the cost.

Key Points

• Bond valuation is the process of determining a bond’s fair value by calculating the present value of future coupon payments and its value at maturity.

• Investors must consider the bond’s current price, which may differ from its face value, as it reflects market conditions and the issuing company’s creditworthiness.

• The valuation involves discounting the bond’s future cash flows using a realistic discount rate, which is essential due to the time value of money.

• Changes in interest rates significantly affect bond pricing; rising rates usually decrease bond prices, while falling rates can increase them.

• Investing in bonds can diversify a portfolio, as they tend to be less risky than stocks and provide a predictable income stream through fixed payments.

How Bond Valuation Works

First, it’s important to remember that bonds are generally long-term investments, where the par value or face value is fixed and so are the coupon payments (the bond’s rate of return over time) — but interest rates are not, and that impacts the present or fair value of a bond at any given moment.

To determine the present or fair value of a bond, the investor must calculate the current value of the bond’s future payments using a discount rate, as well as the bond’s value at maturity to make sure the bond you’re buying is worth it.

Some terms to know when calculating bond valuation:

• Coupon rate/Cash flow: The coupon rate refers to the interest payments the investor receives; usually it’s a fixed percentage of the bond’s face value and typically investors get annual or semi-annual payments. For example, a $1,000 bond with a 10-year term and a 3% annual coupon would pay the investor $30 per year for 10 years ($1,000 x 0.03 = $30 per year).

• Maturity: This is when the bond’s principal is scheduled to be repaid to the bondholder (i.e. in one year, five years, 10 years, and so on). When a bond reaches maturity, the corporation or government that issued the bond must repay the full amount of the face value (in this example, $1,000).

• Current price: The current price is different from the bond’s face value or par value, which is fixed: i.e. a $1,000 bond is a $1,000 bond. The current price is what people mean when they talk about bond valuation: What is the bond currently worth, today?

The face value is not necessarily the amount you pay to purchase the bond, since you might buy a bond at a price above or below par value. A bond that trades at a price below its face value is called a discount bond. A bond price above par value is called a premium bond.

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How to Calculate Bond Valuation

Bond valuation can seem like a daunting task to new investors, but it is not that onerous once you break it down into steps. This process helps investors know how to calculate bond valuation.

Bond Valuation Formula

The bond valuation formula uses a discounting process for all future cash flows to determine the present fair value of the bond, sometimes called the theoretical fair value of the bond (since it’s calculated using certain assumptions).

The following steps explain each part of the formula and how to calculate a bond’s price.

Step 1: Determine the cash flow and remaining payments.

A bond’s cash flow is determined by calculating the coupon rate multiplied by the face value. A $1,000 corporate bond with a 3.0% coupon has an annual cash flow of $30. If it’s a 10-year bond that has five years left until maturity, there would be five coupon payments remaining.

Payment 1 = $30; Payment 2 = $30; and so on.

The final payment would include the face value: $1,000 + $30 = $1,030.

This is important because the closer the bond is to maturity, the higher its value may be.

Step 2: Determine a realistic discount rate.

The coupon payments are based on future values and thus the bond’s cash flow must be discounted back to the present (thanks to the time value of money theory, a future dollar is worth less than a dollar in the present).

To determine a discount rate, you can check the current rates for 10-year corporate bonds. For this example, let’s go with 2.5% (or 0.025, when expressed as a decimal).

Step 3: Calculate the present value of the remaining payments.

Calculate the present value of future cash flows including the principal repayment at maturity. In other words, divide the yearly coupon payment by (1 + r)^t, where r equals the discount rate and t is the remaining payment number.

$30 / (1 + .025)¹ = $29.26

$30 / (1 + .025)² = 28.55

$30 / (1 + .025)³ = 27.85

$30 / (1 + .025)⁴ = 27.17

$1030 / (1 + .025)⁵ = 1,004.87

Step 4: Sum all future cash flows.

Sum all future cash flows to arrive at the present market value of the bond : $1,117.70

Understanding Bond Pricing

In this example, the price of the bond is $1,117.70, or $117.70 above par. A bond’s face or par value will often differ from its market value — and in this case its current fair value (market value) is higher. There are a number of factors that come into play, including the company’s credit rating, the time to maturity (the closer the bond is to maturity the closer the price comes to its face value), and of course changes to interest rates.

Remember that a bond’s price tends to move in the opposite direction of interest rates. If prevailing interest rates are higher than when the bond was issued, its price will generally fall. That’s because, as interest rates rise, new bonds are likely to be issued with higher coupon rates, making the new bonds more attractive. So bonds with lower coupon payments would be less attractive, and likely sell for a lower price. So, higher rates generally mean lower prices for existing bonds.

The same logic applies when interest rates are lower; the price of existing bonds tends to increase, because their higher coupons are now more attractive and investors may be willing to pay a premium for bonds with those higher interest payments.

Is Investing in Bonds Right for You?

Investing in bonds can help diversify a stock portfolio since stocks and bonds trade differently. In general, bonds are seen as less risky than equities since they often provide a predictable stream of income. Investors can consider bonds as an investment, and those with a lower risk tolerance might be better served with a portfolio weighted highly in bonds.

Performing proper bond valuation can be part of a solid research and due diligence process when attempting to find securities for your portfolio. Moreover, different bonds have different risk and return profiles. Some bonds — such as junk bonds and fixed-income securities offered in emerging markets — feature higher potential rates of return with greater risk. “Junk” is a term used to describe high-yield bonds. You can take on higher risk with long-duration bonds and convertible bonds. Some of the safest bonds are short-term Treasury securities.

You can also purchase bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bond mutual funds that own a diversified basket of fixed-income securities.

The Takeaway

Bond valuation is the process of determining the fair value of a bond after it’s been issued. In order to price a bond, you must calculate the present value of a bond’s future interest payments using a reasonable discount rate. By adding the discounted coupon payments, and the bond’s face value, you can arrive at the theoretical fair value of the bond.

A bond can be priced at a discount to its par value or at a premium depending on market conditions and how traders view the issuing company’s prospects. Owning bonds can help diversify your portfolio. Many investors also find bonds appealing because of their steady payments (one reason that bonds are considered fixed-income assets).

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

Photo credit: iStock/Tempura

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Aug

2024

What Is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in Stock Trading? How Does It Work?

What Is Exponential Moving Average (EMA)?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

An exponential moving average (EMA) is a commonly used average price calculation done for a specific time period that places more weight and importance on the most recent price data. Since it is weighted this way it reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average (SMA) which is a type of average price calculation, which equally weights all data points within a time period.

Moving averages are technical analysis trading indicators used by traders to help them understand the direction, market trend, and strength of price movement of an asset. They measure the average price of a security by taking averages of the prices of the security over a specific period of time, and can be used to show traders the location of support and resistance levels. Read on to learn more about the meaning of EMA in stocks, the EMA formula, and how to calculate EMA.

Key Points

• An exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to recent price data, making it a useful tool for traders to gauge market trends and price movements.

• The formula for calculating EMA incorporates the current price, the previous EMA, and an exponential smoothing constant, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market behavior.

• Calculating EMA involves determining the simple moving average first, then applying a weighting multiplier, and finally using the EMA formula to derive values.

• While EMAs can effectively indicate support and resistance levels, they have limitations, such as lagging indicators and the potential for false signals in flat markets.

• Traders often use EMA alongside other indicators to enhance their analysis, helping them make informed decisions about entry and exit points in their trading strategies.

What is EMA?

An EMA, exponentially weighted moving average, is a type of moving average (MA) used by traders to evaluate the potential trajectory of a financial security. Using the EMA calculation, the most recent price data has the greatest impact on the moving average, while older data has a lower impact. The previous EMA value is included in the calculation, so the current value includes all the price data.

As noted, it reacts faster to price changes than a simple moving average, which may be helpful to some investors.

EMA Formula

The formula for calculating EMA is:

EMA = (K x (C – P)) + P

Where:

C = Current Price

P = Previous Period’s EMA (for the first period calculated the SMA is used)

K = Exponential Smoothing Constant (this applies appropriate weight to the most recent security price, using the number of periods specified in the moving average. The most common smoothing constant is 2, but the higher it is the more influence recent data points have on the EMA)

How to Calculate EMA

Technical analysts follow three steps to calculating an EMA.

1. Calculate the simple moving average (SMA) to find the initial EMA data point. The SMA is used as the previous period’s EMA for the first calculated data point of the EMA. To calculate the SMA of the last 20 days, a trader would add the amounts of the last 20 closing prices of the security and then divide that sum by 20.

2. Calculate the weighting multiplier for the number of periods that will be used to calculate the EMA. The number of periods used for the EMA has a significant impact on the value of the weighting multiplier.

The formula for finding the weighting multiplier is:

EMA(current) = ((Price(current) – EMA (prev)) x Multiplier) + EMA(prev)

3. Calculate the EMA using the formula described above.

Some traders also use the open, high, low, or median price instead of the closing price for the EMA calculation.

Example of EMA

Taking the above into consideration and following the three steps to calculate EMA, here’s an example of how it might all come together.

Again, here’s the EMA formula: EMA = (K x (C – P)) + P

We’ll assume that the previous period’s EMA is 50, and that the current price is 60. We’ll also assume that our smoothing constant is 2, for simplicity’s sake.

So: EMA= (2 x (60 – 50)) + 50 = 70

What Does EMA Show You?

An EMA follows prices more closely than a SMA since it puts more weight on recent data points. This is helpful for determining when to enter and exit trades. EMA is a lagging indicator that shows market trends and directions and the strength of price movements. It’s best used in trending markets.

By looking at past trends traders can gain an understanding of what might happen with a security’s price in the future, which may help them identify investment opportunities. Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Limitations of Using EMA

Although EMA is a very useful trading tool, it does have some constraints.

• Spotting trends and directions using EMA is difficult in a flat market.

• The EMA shows present market trends but is not a predictor of future trends and prices. It also doesn’t show exact highs and lows or precise entry and exit points.

• The EMA can show false signals and can show more short term price changes that aren’t trading indicators.

• Even though it is weighted toward recent prices, the EMA does rely on past price movements, so it is a lagging indicator. Because of this the optimal time to enter a trade may have already passed by the time the trend direction shows up in an EMA chart.

How Investors Can Use EMA

Usually traders look at the direction the EMA is going in and they trade in the direction of the trend. In addition to spotting market trends and direction, EMA can also identify spot reversals that occur when a security is overbought or oversold.

The EMA is a fairly accurate tool because stock prices typically only stray so far from the average before returning to test the average, creating support or resistance and continuing to rise or fall. Even beginning investors can use EMA to spot trends and gain an understanding of what direction the market is heading.

Like other indicators, It’s best to use EMA in conjunction with other tools such as relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to get a more comprehensive and accurate picture of the market. There are a few ways investors can use EMA:

Trend Trading

Traders can use the EMA to discover and trade primary market trends. When the EMA rises this is a bullish indicator, a trader may buy when the stock price dips to hit the EMA line or just below it. When EMA goes down, a trader might sell their position when the stock price goes up to hit the EMA line or just above. If the stock has a closing price that crosses over the average line, the trader closes out their trade.

Support and Resistance

EMA lines can track support and resistance levels, another useful way to track price movements and trends. If EMA goes up, this is a support indicator, while if it goes down this shows resistance to the security’s price movement.

Buy and Sell Signals

Traders can set up fast and slow moving averages and then find buy and sell signals when the two lines cross each other.

The Takeaway

EMA is a useful tool for both advanced and beginner traders to understand market trends and directions. It’s a technical indicator that evaluates a stock’s price trend with a greater emphasis on recent price levels.

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Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

FAQ

Which EMA is best?

Day traders often use 8- and 20-day EMA periods, while long-term investors use 50- and 200-day EMA. Indicators such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and percentage price oscillator (PPO) use 12- and 26-day periods. If a security passes over a 200-day EMA this is a technical sign that a trend reversal has occurred.

What’s the difference between EMA and SMA?

Both simple moving average and exponential moving average are used by traders to measure market trends. They both create a graphical line that smoothes out price fluctuations using calculated averages. But they weigh price data differently, and may have different sensitivities to price changes.

What is 5 EMA and 20 EMA?

There are different EMAs referring to different time periods that can identify trends. In that sense, 5 EMA and 20 EMA refers to the 5-day and 20-day EMA, a shorter and longer-term EMA measure.

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Jul

2024

What Is Stagflation & Will It Happen Again?

By Michael Flannelly | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

Stagflation is an economic term that is actually a combination of the words stagnation and inflation — and describes an economy that is both stagnant, and experiencing inflation. For investors, it’s worth being aware of what it means, because of the threat it poses to economies and markets.

Stagflation creates potentially disastrous conditions where people experiencing a decline in purchasing power also feel discouraged against investing. It can create a chain reaction of wealth-destroying events where unemployment climbs and economic output slows, contributing to a national economic malaise.

What Is Stagflation?

Stagflation is a term used to describe a situation when the economy is growing slowly (stagnation) and prices rise rapidly (inflation).

The term was coined by British Conservative Party politician Iain Norman Macleod in a 1965 speech to Parliament. At the time, the United Kingdom was in the midst of simultaneous high inflation and unemployment. In the speech to Parliament, Macleod said, “We now have the worst of both worlds – not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of ‘stagflation’ situation and history in modern terms is indeed being made.”

Usually, economists and analysts will use the unemployment rate as a proxy for economic activity when discussing stagflation. So, a period of stagflation is when unemployment rises while inflation — as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) — accelerates above normally acceptable levels of price growth.

However, like many economic concepts, there is no standard definition of stagflation. Policymakers, elected officials, and investors will use the term stagflation in various economic scenarios.

Stagflation vs Inflation

Inflation is a general increase in the average prices of goods and services. In contrast, stagflation is a combination of stagnant economic growth and rising inflation.

Low levels of inflation are normal for an economy; there’s a reason why movie theater tickets cost more today than they did in the 1950s. Inflation doesn’t become an issue until prices get out of control and spiral upwards. Policymakers within the Federal Reserve like inflation to rise about 2% each year.

You can have inflation without stagflation, but you can’t have stagflation without inflation.

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Has Stagflation Ever Happened?

Before the 1970s, economists didn’t think stagflation — a period of rising unemployment and inflation — was possible. Theoretically, inflation should decrease when unemployment increases because workers have less bargaining power to get higher wages. So, the theory goes, stagflation shouldn’t happen.

However, stagflation did occur in the United States from the mid-1970s. During the 1973-1975 recession, the U.S. experienced five quarters where the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased. Inflation peaked at 12.2% in November 1974, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in May 1975.

This stagflation cycle was part of a larger sequence of events called the Nixon Shock.

Responding to increasing inflation in 1971, President Richard Nixon imposed wage and price controls and surcharges on imports. This created a perfect-storm condition where, when the 1973 oil crisis hit, those surcharges on imports made prices at the gas pump — and across many U.S. industries — skyrocket to then-record prices. The rising prices helped lead to a wage-price spiral, where inflation led to workers asking for higher wages, which led to more inflation, and so on.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat the inflation of the early-70s, but this only created a recession and high unemployment without tamping down inflation. Thus, a prolonged economic stagnation accompanying inflation occurred — a stagflation situation.

While the economy recovered slightly in the late 1970s, inflation remained a problem for the rest of the decade. Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker eventually hiked interest rates to 20% by 1981, triggering a recession to get inflation under control.

Will Stagflation Happen Again?

There are debates about whether stagflation will or could occur again in the United States. There’s always a chance, but the circumstances need to be just right for it to happen.

Most recently, the economy was in a precarious situation in early 2022, with inflation running high after the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a historic pace to combat it. The Fed was trying to curb inflation with the hope of a soft landing, in which an economy slows enough that prices stop rising quickly but not so slowly that it sparks a recession.

As of July 2024, inflation has moderated, and the economy has not slipped into a recession – but things can always change. So, the economy has not, so far, seen widespread stagnation, and inflation has come down – it appears that stagflation has been avoided.

While no one can predict the future, it stands to reason that events that have happened in the past can happen again. Stagflation may occur again, but this doesn’t have to be a dire situation as long as you prepare your financial situation.

How Can Stagflation Impact Investors?

Economic stagnation can have several impacts on investors. Firstly, it can lead to lower returns on investment as companies are less likely to grow and expand in a stagnant economy. This can lead to investors becoming more risk-averse as they seek out investments that are more likely to provide stability and income.

Secondly, stagnation can also lead to higher levels of unemployment, which can, in turn, lead to social unrest and political instability. This can make it more difficult for companies to operate in a given country and lead to investors losing confidence in the economy.

A slowdown of economic activity lasting several months sounds like it can only be a bad thing. But a recession does not necessarily mean the death knell for your finances. For some investors, there are, perhaps surprisingly, compelling strategies to consider when the market is down. Volatility may allow investors to buy low and then make appreciable gains as the market corrects itself.

Recommended: How to Invest During Inflation

The Takeaway

Stagflation occurs when an economy experiences simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment. It’s a situation that often leads to decreased spending by consumers and businesses, which can further stall economic growth and investment returns.

Stagflation has occurred before in the U.S. — notably during the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s — and there is no reason to think it won’t happen again at some point.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

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Jul

2024

HSA vs FSA: The Similarities and Differences

By Emily Greenhill Pierce | Family Finances, Insurance, money | Comments Off

A health savings account (HSA) and a flexible savings account (FSA) are both tax-advantaged savings accounts that help you pay for out-of-pocket medical expenses. To contribute to an HSA, you must be enrolled in a high-deductible health plan. To contribute to an FSA, you can have any type of health plan but your employer must offer an FSA as a benefit. Here’s a closer look at the similarities and differences between FSAs and HSAs and how to choose between them.

HSA and FSA, Explained

A health savings account (HSA) is designed to help individuals with high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) save for medical expenses. Contributions to an HSA are tax-deductible (or deducted from your paycheck pretax), and the funds can be used for a wide range of qualified medical expenses. HSAs also offer investment options and grow tax-free. In addition, withdrawals for qualified expenses are tax-free.

In 2024, a health plan is considered an HDHP if it has a minimum deductible of $1,600 for individual plans and $3,200 for family coverage.

A flexible spending account (FSA) is a benefit offered by employers that allows employees to set aside pretax dollars for eligible healthcare expenses. Unlike HSAs, FSAs do not require an HDHP. However, FSAs typically have a “use-it-or-lose-it” rule, meaning that any unused funds at the end of the plan year are forfeited unless your employer offers a grace period or a certain amount to roll over.

If you leave your job, you lose your FSA unless you’re eligible for FSA continuation through COBRA.

Differences Between HSA and FSA

Even when you have health insurance, you may run into medical expenses that your plan doesn’t cover, such as copays, eyeglasses, dental expenses, medications, diagnostic tests, and hospital fees. Both HSAs and FSAs allow you to set aside pretax money to cover these costs. But there are some key differences between them. Here’s how these two types of savings accounts compare at a glance.

Feature	HSA	FSA
Eligibility	Must have a high-deductible health plan	No specific health plan requirement
Ownership	Account owned by the individual	Account owned by the employer
Contribution Limits	$4,150 for individuals, $8,300 for families (2024)	$3,200 per year (2024)
Funds Rollover	Unused funds roll over year to year	Generally, “use-it-or-lose-it” policy
Portability	Remains with the individual if they change jobs	Typically not portable
Investment Options	Can be invested in stocks, bonds, and mutual funds	No investment options
Tax Advantages	Contributions and earnings aren’t taxed; distributions are tax-free if used for eligible medical expenses.	Contributions are pretax; distributions are tax-free and can only be used for eligible medical expenses.
Contribution Changes	Can change contribution amounts anytime	Contribution amount is typically set at the beginning of the year
Access to Funds	Funds are available as they are deposited	Full annual election amount available from the start of the year

Similarities Between HSA and FSA

Despite their differences, HSAs and FSAs share several similarities:

• Funds from either type of account can be used for qualified medical expenses.

• With both accounts, you can save significantly on medical expenses due to tax advantages.

• Employers are allowed to contribute to both HSAs and FSAs (though this is not common with FSAs).

• You can access funds immediately with either type of account. With an FSA, however, you’ll have access to full elected contribution at the start of the year.

Can You Have an HSA and FSA at the Same Time?

Generally, no. However, there is one exception: If you have a limited-purpose FSA (LPFSA), which only covers dental and vision expenses, you can contribute to both an HSA and an LPFSA. This allows you to put more pretax dollars aside for your healthcare expenses than you could with an HSA alone.

Just keep in mind that you can’t “double dip,” meaning you cannot get reimbursed twice for the same expense — you must decide which account you want to use for reimbursement.

Recommended: HSA vs. HMO: What’s the Difference?

How Do You Choose Between an HSA and FSA?

Choosing between an HSA and FSA depends on your healthcare needs, financial situation, and employment status.

Scenarios When You Should Consider an HSA

• You have a high-deductible health plan. If you have an HDHP, you are eligible for an HSA. The tax advantages and ability to save for future healthcare expenses can make opening an HSA a smart choice.

• You’re interested in long-term savings. HSAs allow you to roll over unused funds year to year, making them ideal for long-term healthcare savings. And at age 65, you can treat an HSA like a traditional 401(k) or IRA — you can withdraw funds for any reason, though you will pay taxes on any funds not used for qualified medical expenses.

• You want to grow your healthcare savings. HSAs offer investment options like stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

• You want to be able to take your healthcare savings with you if you leave your job. HSAs are portable and remain with you even if you change jobs, providing consistent coverage regardless of employment status.

Recommended: 15 Easy Ways to Save Money

Scenarios When You Should Consider an FSA

• You don’t have (or want to enroll in) an HDHP. FSAs do not require a high-deductible health plan, making them accessible regardless of current health insurance.

• You have fairly predictable healthcare costs. If you’re able to anticipate regular healthcare expenses each year, an FSA can help you save money by using pretax dollars for these predictable costs. If you over-contribute, however, you forfeit any unused balance (unless your employer allows a grade period or a certain amount to roll over).

• Your employer offers FSA contributions. Some employers offer contributions to FSAs, providing additional savings and making FSAs a valuable benefit.

• You want to have immediate access to your healthcare savings. FSAs provide immediate access to the full annual contribution amount at the beginning of the year, which can be beneficial for upfront medical expenses.

The Takeaway

Both HSAs and FSAs offer valuable tax advantages and can help you manage healthcare costs, but they cater to different needs and situations.

If you have a high-deductible health plan and want long-term savings with investment opportunities, an HSA can be a great choice. On the other hand, if you don’t have a high-deductible health plan and your employer offers an FSA, you’ll likely want to take advantage of this benefit. An FSA can help you save for (and save money on) healthcare expenses in the coming year.

Interested in opening an online bank account? When you sign up for a SoFi Checking and Savings account with eligible direct deposit, you’ll get a competitive annual percentage yield (APY), pay zero account fees, and enjoy an array of rewards, such as access to the Allpoint Network of 55,000+ fee-free ATMs globally. Qualifying accounts can even access their paycheck up to two days early.

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FAQ

Is it better to have an HSA or FSA?

It depends on your healthcare plan and employment situation. A health savings account (HSA) can be a good fit if you have a high-deductible health plan (HDHP), since it offers higher contribution limits and allows you to carry funds forward. An FSA can work well if your employer offers this benefit, you do not have an HDHP, and you have predictable healthcare expenses (since these plans are often “use-it-or-lose-it”).

Is it good to have both an HSA and FSA?

Generally, you cannot contribute to or spend from a health savings account (HSA) and a flexible spending account (FSA) simultaneously, as both accounts are designed for medical expenses and have overlapping benefits.

However, there is one exception: You can have an HSA and a limited-purpose FSA (LPFSA) at the same time. An LPFSA specifically covers dental and vision expenses. This combination can be beneficial if you have significant dental and vision expenses in addition to regular medical costs, providing comprehensive coverage and enhanced tax advantages.

What happens if I switch from an HSA to an FSA?

If you switch from a health savings account (HSA) to a flexible savings account (FSA), you can no longer contribute to your HSA once your FSA becomes active. However, you still own the HSA and can use the remaining HSA funds for qualified medical expenses. In addition, the funds in your HSA will continue to grow tax-free.

Can I have an HSA if my wife has an FSA?

If your wife’s flexible savings account (FSA) is a general-purpose FSA, which covers a range of medical expenses, you cannot contribute to a health savings account (HSA). However, if her FSA is a limited-purpose FSA (LPFSA), which only covers dental and vision expenses, you can contribute to your HSA.

It’s important to review the specific rules and eligibility criteria for both accounts and coordinate with your spouse to optimize your tax savings and healthcare benefits.

Photo credit: iStock/zimmytws

Annual percentage yield (APY) is variable and subject to change at any time. Rates are current as of 12/23/25. There is no minimum balance requirement. Fees may reduce earnings. Additional rates and information can be found at https://www.sofi.com/legal/banking-rate-sheet

Eligible Direct Deposit means a recurring deposit of regular income to an account holder’s SoFi Checking or Savings account, including payroll, pension, or government benefit payments (e.g., Social Security), made by the account holder’s employer, payroll or benefits provider or government agency (“Eligible Direct Deposit”) via the Automated Clearing House (“ACH”) Network every 31 calendar days.

Although we do our best to recognize all Eligible Direct Deposits, a small number of employers, payroll providers, benefits providers, or government agencies do not designate payments as direct deposit. To ensure you're earning the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit, we encourage you to check your APY Details page the day after your Eligible Direct Deposit posts to your SoFi account. If your APY is not showing as the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit, contact us at 855-456-7634 with the details of your Eligible Direct Deposit. As long as SoFi Bank can validate those details, you will start earning the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit from the date you contact SoFi for the next 31 calendar days. You will also be eligible for the APY for account holders with Eligible Direct Deposit on future Eligible Direct Deposits, as long as SoFi Bank can validate them.

Deposits that are not from an employer, payroll, or benefits provider or government agency, including but not limited to check deposits, peer-to-peer transfers (e.g., transfers from PayPal, Venmo, Wise, etc.), merchant transactions (e.g., transactions from PayPal, Stripe, Square, etc.), and bank ACH funds transfers and wire transfers from external accounts, or are non-recurring in nature (e.g., IRS tax refunds), do not constitute Eligible Direct Deposit activity. There is no minimum Eligible Direct Deposit amount required to qualify for the stated interest rate. SoFi Bank shall, in its sole discretion, assess each account holder's Eligible Direct Deposit activity to determine the applicability of rates and may request additional documentation for verification of eligibility.

See additional details at https://www.sofi.com/legal/banking-rate-sheet.
SoFi Checking and Savings is offered through SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. The SoFi® Bank Debit Mastercard® is issued by SoFi Bank, N.A., pursuant to license by Mastercard International Incorporated and can be used everywhere Mastercard is accepted. Mastercard is a registered trademark, and the circles design is a trademark of Mastercard International Incorporated.

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Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

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Overweight Stock, Explained

What Is an Overweight Stock?

Types of Ratings and Where They Came From

Overweight Stocks

Underweight Stocks

Equal Weight Stocks

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Example of an Overweight Stock

The Downside of Weighting Stocks

How Can Investors Interpret Overweight Stocks?

Can a Portfolio Be Considered Overweight?

The Takeaway

FAQ

Is overweight stock good?

What is the difference between overweight and outperform stocks?

What is the difference between buy and overweight?

What Is Bond Valuation?

How Bond Valuation Works

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How to Calculate Bond Valuation

Bond Valuation Formula

Step 1: Determine the cash flow and remaining payments.

Step 2: Determine a realistic discount rate.

Step 3: Calculate the present value of the remaining payments.

Step 4: Sum all future cash flows.

Understanding Bond Pricing

Is Investing in Bonds Right for You?

The Takeaway

What Is Exponential Moving Average (EMA)?

What is EMA?

EMA Formula

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How to Calculate EMA

Example of EMA

What Does EMA Show You?

Limitations of Using EMA

How Investors Can Use EMA

Trend Trading

Support and Resistance

Buy and Sell Signals

The Takeaway

FAQ

Which EMA is best?

What’s the difference between EMA and SMA?

What is 5 EMA and 20 EMA?

What Is Stagflation & Will It Happen Again?

What Is Stagflation?

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Stagflation vs Inflation

Has Stagflation Ever Happened?

Will Stagflation Happen Again?

How Can Stagflation Impact Investors?

The Takeaway

HSA vs FSA: The Similarities and Differences

HSA and FSA, Explained

Differences Between HSA and FSA

Similarities Between HSA and FSA

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Can You Have an HSA and FSA at the Same Time?

How Do You Choose Between an HSA and FSA?

Scenarios When You Should Consider an HSA

Scenarios When You Should Consider an FSA

The Takeaway

FAQ

Is it better to have an HSA or FSA?

Is it good to have both an HSA and FSA?

What happens if I switch from an HSA to an FSA?

Can I have an HSA if my wife has an FSA?

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