InvestHL Archives | Page 35 of 50

Sep

2023

What Is Efficient Frontier?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

The efficient frontier is a financial framework that investors can use to build an optimized asset portfolio that attempts to give them the greatest returns within their particular risk profile. In other words, it shows which investment portfolio will be “efficient” or provides a higher expected return for a lower amount of risk. It does not, however, eliminate risk for investors, which is important to keep in mind.

It’s visualized as a curved line on a graph according to an individual’s goals and risk tolerance. The framework is called the efficient frontier or the efficiency frontier because if one’s investments fall within the ideal range, they are working efficiently to achieve one’s goal.

How Does the Efficient Frontier Work?

The efficient frontier concept is a key facet of modern portfolio theory, which was created in 1952 by Harry Markowitz. Essentially, the efficient frontier is the optimal baseline for an investment portfolio. If an investor’s portfolio gives them lower returns because it contains riskier investments, then it may not be as well balanced as it could or should be. It’s also possible for a portfolio to provide returns that are greater than the frontier. As such, as long as a portfolio’s potential returns justify its associated risks, then the portfolio is well-allocated.

Every investor has a different risk tolerance, and their own corresponding goals for portfolio growth. Accordingly, every investor has a different frontier. By adjusting that frontier, the inventors can then see if their current portfolio measures up to the parameters set by the efficient frontier graph, and make changes to their asset allocation accordingly.

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How Is the Efficient Frontier Constructed?

Investors hoping to utilize the efficient frontier concept as a part of their strategy will create a corresponding graph, and apply it to their specific portfolio.

When constructing the graph, expected returns are on the y-axis and the standard deviation of returns, which are a measure of risk, are on the x-axis. Then, they would plot a curve that shows where the ideal or expected portfolio would land on the graph and the standard deviation of returns.

Once the graph is created, the investor can plot a portfolio or individual asset on the graph according to its expected returns and their standard deviation, and then compare it to the efficient frontier curve. The investor can also plot two or more portfolios on the graph to compare them.

A portfolio that falls on the right side of the graph has a higher level of risk, while a portfolio that is low on the graph has lower returns. If an investor finds that their portfolio doesn’t fall on the graph where they would like it to, they can then make decisions about how to reallocate investments to move closer to the goal.

The curved line reflects the diminishing marginal return to risk. Adding more risk to a portfolio doesn’t result in an equal amount of increased return. Portfolios that lie below the curve on the graph are suboptimal because they don’t provide high enough returns to justify their amount of risk. Portfolios to the right of the curve are also suboptimal because they have a high level of risk for their particular level of return.

Again, the portfolios that display the lowest levels of risk are not inherently risk-free, which investors will need to keep in mind.

Efficient Frontier Example

Efficient frontier can be a somewhat difficult concept to visualize, so consider this: Your portfolio contains two assets. Each asset has its own respective expected annual return, and standard deviation — so multiple variables for each asset.

Data sets for each can be put together showing correlated expected returns and standard deviations, and plotted on a graph, as discussed. That graph will reveal the efficient frontier, and help investors determine which portfolio they’d prefer accordingly.

Again, it’s somewhat difficult to visualize, but practically speaking, a visual chart with different portfolios can be helpful in making portfolio decisions.

Benefits of the Efficient Frontier

The primary benefit of the efficient frontier is that it helps investors visualize and understand whether their investment portfolio is performing the way they would like it to. Every investment and portfolio comes with some risk, and oftentimes with more risk there is more reward. But it’s important to make sure that your returns are worth the risk, and to remember that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment or portfolio.

Investors can use the efficient frontier to analyze the current performance of a portfolio and figure out which assets to adjust, potentially liquidate, or reallocate. Investors can also see if a particular asset is giving them the same reward with less risk than other assets. In this case, they might want to sell the higher risk asset and put more funds into the lower risk asset.

How Do Investors Use the Efficient Frontier Model?

Using an efficient frontier model is one method of building a portfolio made of different types of investments that have the optimal balance of risk and return. No portfolio is without risk, and investors do need to reallocate investments on occasion to continue optimizing toward their goal. But the optimal portfolio would have a balance of high-risk, high-reward investments and more stable investments that still get decent returns.

There is often an assumption that investments with greater risk provide greater returns — as noted. Although this is sometimes true, the optimal portfolio holds both high risk and low risk assets, according to the efficient frontier.

If an investor has a higher tolerance to risk, they could choose to own a higher percentage of investments on the right end of the efficient frontier graph with higher risk and higher return. If an investor is more conservative, they could choose to hold lower-risk assets.

Proponents of efficient frontier claim that more diversified portfolios tend to be closer to the efficient frontier line than less diversified portfolios, and therefore have lower levels of risk, though they’re not risk-free.

Limits and Downsides of the Efficient Frontier

The main downside of using the efficient frontier tool is that it creates a curve with a normal distribution, which doesn’t necessarily always match reality. Real investments may vary within three standard variations of the mean curve. This “tail risk” means there are limits to the conclusions you can draw from the efficient frontier graph.

Another issue is that investors don’t always make rational decisions and avoid risk. Market decisions involve many complex factors that the efficient frontier does not factor into its calculations. Instead, the efficient frontier assumes that people always avoid risk and make investing decisions rationally.

Finally, the efficient frontier assumes that the number of investors in a market has no impact on market prices, and that all investors have the same access to borrow money with risk-free interest rates.

Investors using the efficient frontier should understand its limitations and might consider using it in conjunction with other tools for analyzing an investment strategy.

The Takeaway

The efficient frontier is one of many useful methods of analyzing portfolios and creating a long-term investing plan. It involves utilizing a financial framework to build an optimized asset portfolio with aims to maximize their potential gains within their particular risk profile. It also involves visuals to help investors get a better sense of where their portfolio stands. Investors should remember that it is not a tool that will help them completely remove risk from their investment portfolio or allocation.

It’s also a relatively high-level investing concept and tool that many investors may not feel comfortable using. There are plenty of strategies and tools that can be utilized in its stead, of course, and it may be worthwhile to consult with a financial professional if investors feel they’re in over their heads.

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FAQ

What are common assumptions of the efficient frontier model?

Common assumptions of the efficient frontier model include that asset returns will follow a more or less common distribution, that investors will act rationally, and that riskier investments inherently lead to larger returns.

Can the efficient frontier be negative?

The efficient frontier model cannot be negative, as a negative figure would imply that an investor garnered losses from a given set of potential portfolios. That means that the investor was not actually investing.

What is the difference between efficient frontier and efficient portfolio?

The efficient frontier is a set of investment portfolios expected to provide the highest return for a specific risk level. Efficient portfolio, on the other hand, is a single portfolio that provides the highest return for a specific risk level.

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Sep

2023

Could Hyperinflation Occur in the United States?

What Is Hyperinflation: Can It Happen in the US?

By Brian O'Connell | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Hyperinflation occurs when prices for goods and services rise uncontrollably. It is an economic condition that fuels nightmares for consumers and for economists alike.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke, there have been more than 60 documented instances of hyperinflation since the 1700s, and in every instance, economic conditions deteriorated so fast that in all cases, national currencies failed, meaning that they lost nearly all of their purchasing power both domestically and internationally.

That begs a key question: Could hyperinflation come in the United States? And, if so, could hyperinflation take down the U.S. dollar and trigger a recession?

Theoretically, the answer is “possibly.” Realistically, the answer is “not likely.” Let’s take a look at hyperinflation and evaluate the possibility of inflation on steroids taking root in the U.S. economy.

What Is Hyperinflation?

If you’re still not quite clear on what is hyperinflation, economists define the term as when the price of goods and services rises uncontrollably over a specific timeframe, with no short-term economic remedy able to bring those prices back down again.

While figures linked to hyperinflation vary, some economists say hyperinflation occurs when the price of goods and services in a country’s economy rise by 50% over the period of one month.

The causes of hyperinflation typically stem from a skyrocketing boost in a country’s money supply without any accompanying economic growth. That scenario usually occurs when a country’s government essentially prints and spends money in short-term bursts, thus triggering a rise in that country’s money supply.

When a government pursues a high level of short-term economic spending at a rate significantly higher than the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rate, more money flows through the economy. When that happens, the real value of a nation’s currency declines, the price of goods and services rises, and inflation spikes.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening an investment account, know your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. These fundamentals will help keep your strategy on track and with the aim of meeting your goals.

Is Hyperinflation Coming to the United States?

While U.S. inflation rates and the prices of many goods and services are on the upswing, economists dismiss the notion that U.S. hyperinflation is looming for the country for several reasons. First, it’s important to remember that hyperinflation and inflation aren’t the same thing, and the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates if inflation concerns grew.

According to data published in September 2023, the annual U.S. inflation rate was 3.7% for the 12 months that ended in August 2023. That’s a significant drop from June of 2022, when the inflation rate was 9.1%, which was led by certain items such as airline tickets, lumber, and hotel rates. Many economists attributed this to ongoing inventory shortages and supply chain issues and the release of post-pandemic pent-up demand.

Even the largest inflation rate in U.S. history — 23% in June, 1920 — wouldn’t come close to approaching hyperinflation levels of 50% in a month. Still, ongoing inflation is something that the U.S. economy hasn’t seen in more than four decades, and it’s a risk that investors may want to consider when devising their portfolio strategy.

How Can Hyperinflation Affect the United States?

Economists have largely downplayed the chances of a hyperinflation in the USA, but with inflation on the rise, it’s helpful for consumers to get a better grip on hyperinflation, in particular, and on inflation in general.

Hyperinflation Causes:

These are some of the typical causes of hyperinflation:

Falling Dollar Value

Like most major global currencies, the dollar trades on foreign currency exchanges. When a country faces inflationary risks, investors grow skittish, and may bypass that country’s currency in favor of more stable currencies. Even without hyperinflation, a weaker dollar can significantly hurt the U.S. economy.

(Hyperinflation is the extreme opposite of what happens during deflation, in which prices for goods and services decline and the value of a currency rises.)

Fewer Major Purchases

As inflation seeps into an economy, high prices may prompt individuals and businesses to defer or cancel large purchases. Consumers, for example, could hold off buying new homes, new vehicles, or major household appliances. Businesses might postpone big-ticket purchases like heavy machinery, office buildings, and commercial vehicles.

Some investors may hesitate to put money into stocks in a down market. All of those decisions could stall economic growth, as fewer dollars are circulating through the economy.

Monetary Policy

When inflation occurs, banks and financial institutions may not lend money or extend credit to consumers and businesses, as confidence in the overall economy wanes.

The economic fix for skyrocketing inflation typically comes from a country’s central bank. In the United States, that would be the Federal Reserve. When necessary, the Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to slow rising inflation by curbing the U.S. money supply, often by raising interest rates. Higher interest rates give consumers and businesses more incentive to save and less incentive to spend. That, in turn, slows rising inflation.

Recommended: What Is Monetary Policy?

Lower Investment Returns

Inflation eats into real investment returns. As the value of a dollar declines, investors need to earn more than their average return on investment in order to generate the same purchasing power.

How to Combat Hyperinflation

Individuals can’t do much to combat hyperinflation on their own. In fact, during hyperinflation, economies and societies can break down or collapse. Fortunately, periods of hyperinflation are rare. And remember, the 3.7% inflation rate as of August 2023 in the U.S. is nowhere near the levels of 50% in a month, which is when many economists believe hyperinflation occurs.

That said, there are things that might help individuals lessen the impact regular or high inflation might have on their investments. These actions include having a balanced and diversified portfolio, and investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), in which the principal amount invested adjusts with inflation.

💡 Quick Tip: Are self-directed brokerage accounts cost efficient? They can be, because they offer the convenience of being able to buy stocks online without using a traditional full-service broker (and the typical broker fees).

Real-World Examples of Hyperinflation

Zimbabwe offers a relatively recent example of hyperinflation. Just over a decade ago, Zimbabwe’s inflation rate stood at a staggering 98% daily inflation rate as the country’s economy went into free fall. That means consumer prices doubled on a daily basis.

Today, the Zimbabwe dollar is very weak, as the country continues to struggle with the issues that often lead to hyperinflation, such as an increased money supply, political corruption, and a major decline in economic activity.

Even historically stable country economies have experienced hyperinflation.

In the immediate aftermath of World War I, the Weimer Republic of Germany fell into economic decline due to war reparation debts and significantly reduced economic activity. The German government printed too much money in an effort to handle its economic obligations and to ignite a stagnant economy. The country faced an inflation rate of 323% per month by November, 1923 — that’s an annual inflation rate of three billion percent.

In today’s dollars, the consumer impact of hyperinflation is particularly onerous. For example, a small cup of coffee that normally would cost $3 would cost $22 at a 1,000% inflation rate. Similarly, a rental payment for an apartment in a major U.S. city might normally cost $2,000. With a 1,000% inflation rate, that rent would cost $22,000.

Hyperinflation also exists on the world’s economic stage in 2023. Venezuela, for example, has an estimated inflation rate of about 400%.

The Takeaway

While hyperinflation is certainly an economic condition any country would strive to avoid, there’s no compelling evidence suggesting it’s on the U.S. economic horizon — now or anytime in the near future. Still, the country has been in an inflationary period since 2022, so investors may consider using some inflation-hedging strategies to reduce its impact.

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FAQ

How does hyperinflation differ from regular inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising in a given economy. Hyperinflation is considered out-of-control inflation, at levels of about 50% in one month, and it can be a sign that a severe economic crisis is on the horizon.

Has the United States ever experienced hyperinflation in its history?

No. The closest the U.S. has come to hyperinflation is when annual inflation peaked at almost 30% during the Revolutionary War in 1778.

Are there any warning signs or indicators that could suggest the onset of hyperinflation?

Signs that might suggest that hyperinflation could happen include significant price increases of goods and services (such as increases of 50% in one month), the value of a country’s currency plummets, and economic activity slows or stops.

How can individuals protect their assets and finances during periods of hyperinflation?

Hyperinflation is quite rare, especially in countries with a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, that works to control inflation. However, there are things an investor might do to help limit the impact regular inflation might have. This includes having a balanced and diversified portfolio, and investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), in which the principal invested adjusts with inflation.

Photo credit: iStock/milindri

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Sep

2023

Pros and Cons of Paper Trading

By Colin Dodds | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Paper trading is simulated trading, done for practice without real money. It’s a way to test different trading strategies without the risk of losing money, before an investor starts trading with real capital.

The practice gets its name from how investors would once mark down their hypothetical stock purchases and sales — and track their returns and losses — on paper. But today, investors typically use digital platforms to virtually test out hypothetical investment portfolios, day-trading tactics, and broader investing strategies.

How do Paper Trades Work?

What is paper trading? In its most basic form, paper trading involves selecting a stock, group of stocks, or a sector, then writing down the ticker or tickers and choosing a time to buy the stock. The paper trader then writes down the purchase price or prices.

When they sell the stock or stocks, they write down that price as well, and tally up their return.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

Pros and Cons of Paper Trading

Paper trading has both benefits and drawbacks. Here are a few factors to consider before you try paper trading.

The Pros of Paper Trading

Build skills: Paper trading is a way to learn and build trading skills in either a bear or a bull market. For new traders, a virtual trading platform offers a way to make rookie mistakes without risking real money. It’s a method to get comfortable with the process of buying and selling stocks, and making sure you don’t enter a limit order when you mean to place a market order.

Test out strategies: Paper stock trading allows for experimentation. For example, an investor might hear about shorting a stock. But they may not know how the process works, and what it actually pays out. Paper trading permits investors to learn how these trades work in practical terms. Or, they might want to try out other strategies, such as swing trading.

Learn about strengths and weaknesses: Paper trading is also a way for investors to learn about their own strengths and weaknesses. Traders lose money in the markets for a number of personal reasons. Some stick to their guns too long, while others give up too soon when the market is down. Some lose money because they panic, while others lose money because they ignore clear warning signs. Paper trading is a way for investors to learn their own tendencies and weaknesses without paying for the lesson.

Keep emotions out of it: Finally, paper trading can help teach investors to keep their emotions in check while the markets are going up and down. Investing with hypothetical dollars can be good practice in the valuable art of making rational decisions in stressful situations and allow investors to find risk management techniques that work best for them.

The Cons of Paper Trading

It’s not real: The biggest drawback of paper trading is that it’s not real. An investor can’t keep the returns they earn paper trading. And those paper returns can lead the investor to have an unrealistic sense of confidence, and a false sense of security. Paper trading also doesn’t account for real-life situations that might require an investor to withdraw money from the market for personal reasons or the impact of an unexpected recession.

The emotional impact is hard to gauge: Paper trading does limit the impact of emotions, but once an investor’s real, actual money is in play, it may be more difficult to reign in emotions. That money represents a month’s salary, or a semester’s tuition, or a house payment, and so forth, so it can be hard to remain calm and keep perspective when the market plunges over the course of a trading day.

Could be misleading: While paper trading offers important lessons, it can also mislead investors in other ways. If a paper trading strategy focuses on just a few stocks, or using one trading strategy, they can easily lose sight of how broader market conditions actually drive the performance of those stocks, including stock volatility, or their strategy, or have an inflated confidence in their ability to time the markets. They need to realize their holdings or strategy may offer very different results in a real-world scenario.

Doesn’t involve the true costs of trading: Another danger with paper-trading is that traders may overlook the cost of slippage and commissions. These two factors are a reality of actual trading, and they erode an investor’s returns. Slippage is the difference between the price of a trade at the time the trader decides to execute it and the price they actually pay or receive for a given stock.

Especially during periods of high volatility, slippage can make a significant impact on the profitability of a trade. Any difference, up or down, counts as slippage, so slippage can be good news at times. Since brokerage commissions and other fees always come out of a trader’s bottom line, paper traders should include them in their model.

💡 Quick Tip: Are self-directed brokerage accounts cost efficient? They can be, because they offer the convenience of being able to buy stocks online without using a traditional full-service broker (and the typical broker fees).

Live Trading vs Paper Money

When an investor uses live trading, they are using real money to buy and/or sell stocks or other securities. They will confront market fluctuations and need to make decisions, sometimes quickly, about what to do. Live trading can be very stressful, but it does offer the opportunity for an investor to earn money. However, it also comes with the very real risk of losing money.

With paper trading, there is no money involved to lose. But once again, it’s not “real,” so while it may teach you some basics, paper trading does have limits and drawbacks, as detailed above.

Paper Trading in the Digital Age

Wondering how to paper trade? There are different ways to do it. Some investors swear by a tangible notebook-and-paper approach to paper trading, others keep a spreadsheet, which allows them to track other factors involved in the investment, including the exact time of the purchase and sale, volume, holding period, index direction, overall market volatility, and other factors they may be studying.

But while paper or spreadsheets are valuable tools, most investors testing out their trading chops or portfolio-construction skills now prefer virtual trading platforms, which pit a hypothetical portfolio or strategy against real markets. These platforms mimic the look and feel of an actual trading platform, but deal only in hypothetical assets. Understanding a platform can make it easier to transition to real-life trading in the future.

On these platforms, an investor will start with fake money and begin trading. As they do, they can track the fluctuations in an account’s value, along with profit and loss, and other key metrics. Many trading simulators offered by online brokerages allow investors to virtually trade in real-time during live markets without risking their money. For some investors, this can be a valuable experience before they dive in with real money–and the potential for real losses.

How to start paper trading

If you’d like to try paper trading, be sure to research your investments, just like you would if you were investing for real, and use the same amount of paper money you would use in real life. This will help mimic the actual experience.

If you choose to paper trade with a pencil and paper, you can simply choose a stock or group of stocks, write down the ticker, and pick a time to buy the stock. You then write down the purchase price, or prices. When you sell the stock you record that price and then figure out your up their return.

If you decide to use a virtual trading platform, you’ll need to choose a platform. There are many free platforms available. You may want to look for one that has live market feeds so that you can practice trading without delays.

Setting up a Paper Trading Account

Once you’ve selected a virtual trading platform, you’ll set up an account. Simply log onto the platform and follow the prompts to set up an account. Once you’ve done that, there should be a “paper trading” option you can click on.You’ll need to select a balance and then you should be able to start simulating trading.

The Takeaway

Paper trading can be a way to learn about investing. By keeping track of all trades, and the losses or gains they generate, it creates a low-stress practice for examining why certain stocks, and certain trades, perform the way they do. That can be invaluable later, when there’s real money on the line.

However, remember that paper trading isn’t real. In real-life trading with an investment account, you’ll have the potential for gains, but also for losses. Make sure you are comfortable taking that risk.

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FAQ

Do you make money from paper trading?

No. With paper trading, there is no real money involved, so there is no opportunity to make (or lose) money. Paper trading is a way to learn about trading without risking money.

How realistic is paper trading?

Paper trading involves using real trading strategies and simulates a real market experience. However there are no real losses or gains since no real money is involved. Because of that, it doesn’t convey a fully realistic experience.

Is paper trading good for beginners?

Paper trading can be a way to learn the basics of investing. A beginner could build their skills and test different strategies without risking loss. However, paper trading can be misleading because there is no real risk involved. An investor might be tempted to take more risks than they would in a real life investing scenario, for instance.

Why is paper trading important?

Paper trading could be important because it allows beginning investors to practice trades, build their skills, and test different market strategies, without the risk of losing money. However, it can’t replicate the experience of real trading with actual money and the potential to possibly lose money, which someone who tries paper trading should keep in mind.

Photo credit: iStock/fizkes

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Sep

2023

What Is a Direct Stock Purchase Plan (DSPP)?

By Matthew Zeitlin | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

A direct stock purchase plan (DSPP) is a plan that allows investors to purchase stock in a company without a broker and get it directly from the company instead.

With DSSPs, there are often no brokerage fees. Meanwhile, discounts to the share prices may be available for larger purchases. With shares purchased through a DSPP, investors have the same profit and loss opportunities, access to dividends, as well as stockholder voting rights.

However, direct stock purchase plans may not be right for every investor. Learn more about buying stock direct from companies through a DSPP, including the pros and cons.

Direct Stock Purchase Plan, Explained

What is a direct stock purchase plan? Typically, many investors use a broker to buy shares of stock. But you can sometimes purchase stocks directly from companies, no broker required. This is what it means to participate in a direct stock purchase plan.

Many blue-chip stocks tend to offer DSPPs. For example, let’s say Company X offers a plan that allows investors to buy $500 or more worth of company stock directly from it, up to $250,000 a year, with some service and transaction fees.

With a DSPP, investors directly purchase shares, sometimes at a small discount. Discounts can range from 1% to 10% to encourage investors to buy more shares.

However, because many brokerage accounts now waive fees and commissions entirely for many investors, the savings difference is smaller than it used to be.

💡 Quick Tip: Did you know that opening a brokerage account typically doesn’t come with any setup costs? Often, the only requirement to open a brokerage account — aside from providing personal details — is making an initial deposit.

Pros and Cons of a DSPP

Direct stock purchase plans have benefits and drawbacks. These include:

Pros:

• No broker needed. Investors can purchase shares of stock directly from the company.

• Very little money is required to get started, and the process is typically simple to do.
Good for long-term investing.

• Some DSPP programs offer dividend reinvestment plans.

Cons:

• An investor may not achieve portfolio diversification because not all stocks offer DSPPs.

• Companies may put maximum limits on how much an individual investor can purchase.

• When selling DSPP stocks, multiple types of fees can sometimes be charged.

How To Invest in a DSPP

Armed with information about how to buy directly from companies, investors may want to explore what specific opportunities exist. Perhaps they already have a publicly traded company in mind. In that case, they can go to that company’s investor relations website to see if the company offers this type of investment opportunity.

They can also search on the Internet to see which direct stock purchase plans are available.

More specifically, if someone wants to buy stocks in this way, they typically open an account and make deposits into it. Usually, these deposits are automatically made monthly through an ACH funds transfer from the investor’s bank account. In some cases you can write checks as well.

Then, that dollar amount is applied toward purchasing shares in that company’s stock, which can include fractional shares. For example, let’s say that one share of a company’s stock currently costs $20. If an investor sets up an ACH withdrawal of $50 monthly, then, each month they have purchased 2.5 shares of that company’s stock.

One of the benefits of investing through a direct stock purchase plan is the ability to incrementally invest in an inexpensive way. This might make it a good choice for some first-time investors with smaller amounts of money to invest, with initial deposits ranging from $100 to $500. In some cases, initial deposit minimums can be waived if you purchase a certain dollar value of stock every month. But again, it may be difficult to achieve portfolio diversification with DSPP.

Companies With DSPPs

A number of large, well-established companies offer DSPPs. Companies with direct stock purchase plans include Walmart, The Coca-Cola Company, Starbucks, and Home Depot, and Best Buy, among others.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

What to Consider Before Buying DSPPs

When online investing was new, people typically needed to pay significant fees to brokers to buy stock. In that era, direct stock purchase plans could be money-savers for investors. Over time, though, fees for online investing have lessened, making this less distinctive of a benefit.

In addition, many DSPPs charge initial setup fees, and may have other investment fees, including ones for each purchase transaction or sale. Although they may be small, these fees can build up over time. And it may be challenging to re-sell shares without the use of a broker, which makes this investment strategy more of a long-term one.

Plus, any time a share is purchased, some degree of stock volatility comes along with it — how much depends upon what is happening with that specific company and the overall levels of turbulence in the market.

Here’s something else to consider: When owning stock in just one company, or only a couple of them, portfolios aren’t diversified. When you diversify your investment assets, it helps to spread out the degree of risk. That’s because, if one stock’s value decreases, others may rise to balance out that portfolio.

The Takeaway

Direct stock purchase plans are when individual investors can directly purchase shares of that company’s stock without the need for broker involvement. The benefits of DSPPs potentially include purchasing company shares at a discount, and not needing a broker to make the transaction.

The downside of DSPPs is that a limited number of companies offer them, which means that an investor who invests solely through DSPPs may not have the best portfolio diversification. Plus, with brokerage commissions and fees rapidly shrinking, in many cases to zero, DSPPs have become a less essential way of cutting down trading costs for investors.

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FAQ

What is the difference between a brokerage and a direct stock purchase?

The main difference between a brokerage and a direct stock purchase is this: With a direct stock purchase, an investor buys shares of one company. A brokerage, on the other hand, offers multitudes of different stock options an investor may choose from.

What is direct stock vs portfolio stock?

With direct stock, an investor purchases shares of stock directly from a company. A portfolio refers to a collection of different types of investments an investor may have, including stocks, bonds, or stock funds, to name a few.

What is the difference between DSPP and DRIP?

By using a DRIP (dividend reinvestment plan), investors can buy more stock in companies whose shares they own by reinvesting what they earn from dividends. With a DSPP, an investor can purchase stock directly from a company. Unlike a DRIP, they don’t have to use dividends to purchase shares.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Sep

2023

Advance/Decline Line: Definition, Formula, Examples

By Paulina Likos | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

The Advance/Decline line, or A/D line, is a technical stock market indicator used by traders to measure the overall health of the stock market. This measurement tells market participants whether there are more stocks rising or falling on a trading day, and whether a majority of stocks are pushing the market in either direction.

For traders who are looking for greater insight into market trend analysis, the A/D line may be a suitable indicator to help determine where the market is trending, how strong that trend is, and the direction the market could be going in the short-term.

What Is the Advance/Decline Line (A/D)?

The advance/decline line (A/D) is a market indicator that traders use during stock technical analysis to estimate the breadth, or the overall strength or weakness of the stock market. The A/D line monitors how many stocks are currently trading above or below the previous day’s close. Traders may follow these changes over time to try to forecast the direction of the market.

In a particular index, like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, or Dow Jones Industrial Average, stocks go up and down. But just because some stocks move in one direction, it doesn’t mean that all stocks move in that same direction. Sometimes it can be difficult for investors to discern whether the direction of the market is being influenced by larger stocks that hold more weight in an index, or by a majority of stocks that are pushing the markets in a particular direction.

The purpose of the A/D line is to see how it correlates with the price movement of the index it’s being compared to. Traders and investors can use the A/D line to see how many stocks are rising or declining to form an estimate on market direction.

Where Is the Advance/Decline Line on a Chart?

Market participants can find the advance/decline line above or below a stock index chart. Investors can reference the A/D line and compare it to the chart stock market indexes to better understand the strength of the market and to help gauge the direction of where the market might be headed.

Advance/Decline Line vs the Arms Index

The Arms Index — also known as the story-term trading index (TRIN) — is another technical analysis indicator used to estimate market sentiment and measure volatility. It’s a ratio between advancing and declining stocks versus the volume of stocks whose price increases or decreases. In other words, the TRIN compares advancing and declining stocks to their volume and shows whether the volume is flowing toward advancing or declining stocks.

If more volume is trending toward declining stocks, the TRIN for that day will be greater than one. If more A/D volume correlates with advancing stocks, then the TRIN will be below one for that day. A high TRIN reading could signal to traders that stock selling may be on the horizon. A TRIN reading below one could indicate a buying opportunity.

Traders may use the TRIN ratio as a short-term market gauge to measure overbought or oversold market levels, while the A/D line can be used to gauge longer term market sentiment by measuring the rise and fall of stock over a period of time.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Advance/Decline Line Formula

The A/D Line is calculated by taking the difference between the number of stocks that advance and the number of stocks that decline, compared to the prior close. This value is added to the previous day’s A/D Line value. If there are more declining stocks versus advancing stocks on a particular day, then traders will see the A/D line start to move downward. If there are more stocks that are advancing, the A/D number is going to be increasing. Here is the formula:

Advance/Decline Line = Number of advancing stocks – Number of declining stocks + Previous A/D Line value

Calculating the Advance/Decline Line (A/D)

The A/D line is a cumulative, daily calculation that is plotted each day so market participants can see the direction of where stocks are moving. When reading the A/D line, it’s important for traders to look at the direction of the line and not its value.

Traders may use the A/D line to help decide which trades to place next. For example, if the market shows more declining stocks than advancing stocks, this means a majority of stocks closed at a lesser value than their previous day close. As a result, traders may anticipate that the market will fall in the near term, and may choose to sell because the market trend is moving in a bearish direction.

Some indexes, like the S&P 500, are market-cap weighted, which means the larger companies hosted in the index influence the direction of the index. The A/D line allows investors to look at stocks on a level playing field. When a market rises, for example, the A/D line shows investors whether this rise was driven by a majority of stocks increasing or if the rise was caused by a select few of stocks that hold a larger weight in the index.

What Does the Advance/Decline Line Show?

The advance/decline line shows traders the degree of participation of stocks in a market that is either rising or falling and whether the majority of stocks are moving in a similar direction of the market.

The line is a representation of stocks that are ticking up or down cumulatively, adding stock movements each day to see the trend of advancing stocks vs. declining stocks. If there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on a particular day, the A/D line would start to slope downward. If there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks on the day, then the A/D line would slope upwards.

Sometimes there might be a difference in direction between the index and the A/D line. This is called a divergence, and it can happen in one of two ways.

Bearish Divergence: Declining Line

If the index is on an upward trend but the A/D line has a negative slope, this is known as a bearish divergence. The increase in the index may be driven by some stocks, but this scenario signals to traders the market may reverse and trend downward in the short term.

Bullish Divergence: Rising Line

If the index is on a downward trend but the A/D line has a positive slope, this is called a bullish divergence. The index seems to be bearish, but the A/D line tells market participants there are more advancing than declining stocks during the period that the index is declining. This may signal a trend reversal in market prices and indicate the market has more strength than meets the eye.

Example of Using the A/D Line

Traders use the A/D line to compare it to the price movement of the index.

For example, when an index you’re monitoring is moving to new highs, you want to see the A/D line moving new highs to confirm the index’s direction.

If the index and the A/D line are both hitting new highs, the market is hitting a bullish trend. If the stock market reaches a new peak but the A/D line reaches a lower peak than the previous rally, that means fewer stocks are participating in a higher move and the rally could be coming to an end. This could suggest that the strength of the market is driven by a few names with larger market caps.

Is the A/D Line a Good Indicator?

The A/D line is considered a reputable and popular measurement for traders to gather reliable insight into the strength of a market trend. Note that there are many market indicators out there, and each will have good and bad use cases. But generally, the A/D line may be a good choice for many investors to utilize.

When the price of an asset changes, traders will want to know whether it’s best to buy or sell. With the A/D line, traders can estimate price trends of assets and potential reversals by reviewing the direction of the A/D line, which is considered to be a reasonably reliable indicator in predicting trends since it shows market participants how the market is behaving.

Pros of the A/D Line

Traders can find the A/D Line indicator either above or below a stock chart on a trading platform and may use it as a tool to try to time the market and potentially catch a particular stock price.

By gauging the direction of where markets are headed, the A/D Line can help traders forecast stock price movements on the upside or downside. This may help market participants position their trades favorably.

Cons of the A/D Line

It’s important for market participants to be careful to not rely on the A/D Line as their only market indicator. While the A/D Line offers insight into overall market direction, it may not be able to capture minor market changes.

The A/D Line does not capture price changes between trading gaps, or when a stock’s price moves higher or lower throughout the trading day even though there’s not much trading going on.

Another limitation is that even though the line shows the general direction of where the market is trending, either a positive or negative slope, the A/D line doesn’t show the precise percentage the stock moved.

How Investors Can Use the Advance/Decline Line

The A/D line is positioned against an index to help spot market trends and reversals. Traders who trade on the major indexes can use the A/D line to gauge overall market sentiment. Market participants can look at a historical A/D line to see how the market performed in different periods of time.

💡 Quick Tip: How do you decide if a certain trading platform or app is right for you? Ideally, the investment platform you choose offers the features that you need for your investment goals or strategy, e.g., an easy-to-use interface, data analysis, educational tools.

The Takeaway

The Advance/Decline Line is a tool used by traders and investors to forecast the direction of where the overall stock market is headed. The A/D Line is a well-known market indicator used to predict and confirm trends and forecast market reversals.

The A/D Line offers a great visual guide that may help traders make decisions on market strategies and positions in the short term. But while there are benefits of using this metric, it’s important for market participants to know the A/D line’s drawbacks as well.

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FAQ

What is considered a good Advance/Decline ratio?

An advance/decline ratio of one or more is generally considered to be good, as it’s a signal that a stock is in a stable or on an upward trend. Conversely, a ratio of less than one is a sign that it could be declining.

What is the 10-day Advance/Decline line?

The 10-day advance/decline line is a technical indicator that allows investors to get a measure of the average number of daily advancers minus decliners within an index or specific sector over the previous ten trading days.

What does a period of decline in investment mean?

A period of decline in investment is a broad description of a period of deflation in the investment market. It could take the form of an overall drop in the value of investments.

Photo credit: iStock/utah778

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Advance/Decline Line: Definition, Formula, Examples

What Is the Advance/Decline Line (A/D)?

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Advance/Decline Line Formula

Calculating the Advance/Decline Line (A/D)

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Example of Using the A/D Line

Is the A/D Line a Good Indicator?

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How Investors Can Use the Advance/Decline Line

The Takeaway

FAQ

What is considered a good Advance/Decline ratio?

What is the 10-day Advance/Decline line?

What does a period of decline in investment mean?

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