Should I Sell My House? Reasons to Sell (or Wait) in 2021

Should I Sell My House? Reasons to Sell (or Wait) in 2024

The housing market has been super-heated in recent years since the pandemic and the popularity of working from home sent ripples across America. After several months of hikes, mortgage rates are expected to fall in 2024, and an increase in home sales may follow.

You may be wondering if this is the year to sell your home, or would it be wise to wait another year or two? That’s not a simple yes/no decision. A variety of factors come into play when making a big lifestyle and financial move like this one.

Here, we’ll provide guidance on how to size up the pros and cons of selling now, including:

•   What is the housing market like in 2024?

•   What are good reasons to sell your house?

•   What are good reasons to wait to sell your house?

•   Should I sell my house now or wait? If so, what are selling tips?

•   Should I buy a house in 2024?

Examining the Housing Market in 2024

The coronavirus pandemic brought an unprecedented demand for housing as more people needed houses that would accommodate the shift to working from home as well as kids shifting to the remote-learning model. The housing market heated up, also fueled by low mortgage interest rates.

Fast forward to today, when many people are heading back to the office, children are back at school, and mortgage rates and the annual percentage yield (APYs) on mortgages have climbed. This has occurred in sync with the Fed raising their rates with an eye to slowing inflation.

What does that mean for the housing market in 2024? It may be softer than at its white-hot peak, but it is still largely a seller’s market, with home prices expected to continue slowly rising in many markets.

So to summarize: Houses were selling like hotcakes throughout the pandemic and demand remains strong in many areas. This could provide a good opportunity to sell your house in some situations. But if you’re selling so you can buy another house, there’s more to dig into local market conditions in order to answer the question, “Should I sell my house now?”


💡 Quick Tip: An online property tracker can help you monitor your home equity over time. That’s important for understanding your net worth and finding sufficient insurance protection.

3 Reasons to Sell Your House

Now could be the smartest time to sell your house, depending on your specific situation. Here are some compelling reasons to sell your house in 2024.

Reason #1: Your House is Worth More Now

Housing prices spiked recently, and now they are dropping. In other words, your home is likely worth more than several years ago and possibly less than it will be in a year or two.

If, due to the spike in value, you discover that how much equity you have in your home is significantly higher, it could be a great time to cash out and buy something else. Or, if you know you want to sell within the next year or two, it might be wise to make a move now since property values may slip lower in the near future.

Recommended: How Much Is My House Worth?

Reason #2: A Few Minor Repairs Could Increase Value

Even if your home is already worth more than in the past, you can get even more value out of it if you make common home repairs like replacing pipes or a water heater.

Also consider revamping your kitchen or bathrooms, since those are big influencers for people looking for a new home. A fresh coat of paint can breathe new life into your home and make it all the more appealing if you put it on the market.

Reason #3: Houses are Selling Fast

Looking to sell quickly? Now could be a good time. In 2024, the median time a home is on the market is 61 days, according to Fred Economic Data. By comparison, homes were typically on the market for 83 days in 2023.

At the start of the year, homes were typically on the market for two weeks longer than a year prior, but that still represents a quicker sale than pre-pandemic norms. So if you do decide to sell your property, be prepared to have to move out quickly and make sure you have a plan for where you’ll live next.

3 Reasons You Should Wait to Sell Your House

While there are some great reasons to sell your home right now, it may not be the right time to sell for everyone. Here’s why you might want to wait.

Reason #1: You Can’t Afford to Buy

Selling in a seller’s market is great…but not so great if you need to buy another house, especially if you’re staying in the same area. Buying a house may be cost-prohibitive for you, especially when you factor in closing costs on top of the inflated pricing.

Also, there’s no avoiding the fact that it has become more expensive to borrow money. As of mid-May 2024, the average mortgage rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.21% versus 5.89% in January of 2024.

That said, if you live in an expensive area, you could sell your home and move to another more affordable state. Or you might look into different mortgage loan products and options (for instance, buying down your rate by paying points) to make a move less cost-prohibitive.

Recommended: How Much House Can I Afford?

Reason #2: You Owe More Than You Could Sell For

If you are upside-down on your mortgage payments though, selling won’t provide a solution. Perhaps you took out a second mortgage or not have paid enough on your first mortgage to recoup the expense by selling, even at a higher price. That means you would still owe money on a house you no longer live in after selling.

If this is the case, it may be better to build equity over time before selling.

Reason #3: You’re Not Ready to Make Home Repairs

While making home repairs before selling could help you get a higher price for your home, that doesn’t necessarily mean you have $30,000 lying around to make those improvements. If you know that certain repairs would help you get more for your house but you can’t afford to make them right now, it may be better to wait to sell a house until you can afford to invest in those home improvements.

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Tips for Selling (and Buying) a Home

Before coming up with your own answer to the question of “Should I sell my house,” consider these points:

•   Figure out how much you can afford to pay to buy another. If you can only afford a house that’s smaller than your current one, or in a neighborhood you don’t want to live in, there’s not much point in selling only to end up worse off.

•   Look at comparables to understand market trends and how much homes are selling for in your neighborhood. Go to open houses to see what sort of updates and features sellers are offering so you have an idea of what to do to get your own house ready for sale.

•   Contemplate being represented by a real estate agent or doing it yourself. There are some great DIY sites that can cut down on the fees you pay to sell, but you will probably have to invest time, effort, and cash into marketing your property.

For instance, if you’re selling your house on your own, invest in professional photos rather than taking your own, and get the house staged (that means more than just removing all the toys and dog beds before a showing!). The better you present your home, the better the price you can command.

•   Remain patient if you’re also buying. It can feel frustrating to be outbid for what seems like the house of your dreams, but it can be a reality right now. Don’t force a decision — the right house will find you.



💡 Quick Tip: Planning a home improvement project? Some upgrades provide more value than others. A midlevel-budget kitchen or bath remodel, for example, can provide a decent return on investment.

The Takeaway

Selling your house this year could be a smart financial decision, but it’s important to make sure you’re looking at the bigger picture with your finances.

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Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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How Does Inflation Affect Retirement?

How Does Inflation Affect Retirement?

For retirees on a fixed income, inflation can have a significant influence on their ability to maintain their budget. That’s because as inflation rises over time, that fixed income will lose value.

That could mean that retirees need to scale back their spending or even make drastic changes to ensure that they don’t run out of money. The average rate of inflation was 8% in 2022, the highest inflation rate in 40 years. By January 2024, the inflation rate had dropped to 3.1%.

When it comes to their retirement money, 90% of Americans ages 60 to 65 say inflation is their biggest concern, according to a 2023 survey by Nationwide. However, by planning ahead, it is possible to minimize some of the impact of inflation on your nest egg.

Read on to learn more about inflation and retirement and what you can do to help protect your savings.

What Is Inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices of goods and services increase in an economy over a period of time. This can include daily costs of living such as gas for your car, groceries, home expenses, medical care, and transportation. Inflation may occur in specific segments of the economy or across all segments at once.

There are multiple causes for inflation but economists typically recognize that inflation occurs when demand for goods and services exceeds supply. In an expanding economy where more consumers are spending more money, there tends to be higher demand for products or services which can exceed its supply, putting upward pressure on prices.

When inflation increases, the purchasing power of money, or its value, decreases. This means as the price of things in the economy goes up, the number of units of goods or services consumers can buy goes down.

How does inflation affect retirement? When purchasing power declines, the value of your savings and investments goes down. While the dollar amount does not change, the amount of goods or services those dollars can buy falls. In retirement, inflation can be especially harmful, since retirees typically don’t have an income that goes up over time.

Concerns about inflation and retirement may even push back the age at which some people think they can afford to retire.

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5 Ways that Could Potentially Minimize the Impact of Inflation on Retirement

While inflation can seem like a challenging or even scary part of retirement, there are several investment opportunities that may help you maintain purchasing power and reduce the risk of inflation.

1. Invest in the Stock Market

Investing in stocks is one way to potentially fight inflation. A diversified portfolio that includes equities may generate long-term returns that are higher than long-term inflation. While past performance does not guarantee future returns, over the past 10 years, the average annualized return for the S&P 500 has been 12.39%. Even when inflation is factored in, investors still have substantial returns when investing in stocks. When adjusted for inflation, the average annualized return over the past 10 years is 9.48%.

However, stocks are risk assets, which means they are sensitive to market volatility. These price swings may not feel comfortable to investors who are in retirement so retirees tend to allocate a smaller portion of their portfolio to stocks to help manage market risk.

How much you may decide to allocate to stocks depends on a number of factors such as your risk tolerance and other sources of income.

2. Use Tax-Advantaged Retirement Vehicles

To maximize the amount of savings you have by the time you reach retirement, start investing as early as you can in young adulthood in retirement accounts such as employer-sponsored 401(k)s or Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). The more time your money has to grow, the better.

With 401(k)s and traditional IRAs, the money in them grows tax-deferred; you pay income tax on withdrawals in retirement, when you might be in a lower tax bracket than you were during your working years.

Another option is a Roth IRA. With this type of IRA, you pay taxes on the money you contribute, and then you can withdraw it tax-free in retirement.

Recommended: How to Open an IRA: 5-Step Guide for Beginners

3. Do Not Over-Allocate Long-Term Investments With a Low Rate of Return

Risk averse investors may be tempted to keep their nest egg invested in securities that are not subject to major price swings, or even to keep their money in a savings account. However, theoretically, the lower the risk investors take, the lower the reward may be. When factoring in fees and inflation, ultra-conservative investments may only break even or perhaps lose value over time.

While they offer a guaranteed return, high-yield savings accounts, for example, typically don’t earn enough interest to beat inflation in the long run. Since savings account rates are not higher than inflation rates, the buying power of your savings will continue to decline. That’s particularly important for retirees who are often living off their savings and investments, rather than off of an income that rises with inflation.

Because of this, retirees may want to consider keeping a portion of their investments in the stock market.

💡 Quick Tip: If you’re opening a brokerage account for the first time, consider starting with an amount of money you’re prepared to lose. Investing always includes the risk of loss, and until you’ve gained some experience, it’s probably wise to start small.

4. Make Sure You Understand Inflation-Protected Securities

Treasury inflation-protected securities or TIPS, which are backed by the federal government, are designed to help protect investments against inflation. The principal value of the investment increases when inflation goes up and if there’s deflation, the principal adjusts lower per the Consumer Price Index.

However, for some investors, TIPS may have disadvantages. TIPS typically pay lower interest rates than other government or corporate securities. That generally makes them less than ideal for individuals like retirees who are looking for investment income. Also, unless inflation is quite high, and unless they are held for the long-term, TIPS may not offer much inflation-protection. There are also potential tax consequences to consider when the bonds are sold or reach maturity.

Finally, because they are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuation than other bonds, if an investor sells TIPS before they reach maturity, that individual could potentially lose money depending on the interest rates at the time.

Be sure to carefully weigh all the pros and cons of TIPS to decide if they make sense for your portfolio.

5. Buy Real Estate or Invest in REITs

Retirees may also consider investing in real assets. Real estate is typically an inflation hedge because it holds intrinsic value. During periods of inflation, real estate may not only be able to preserve its value, but it might also increase in value. One of the daily costs impacted by inflation is the cost of housing.

That’s why rental income from real estate historically has kept up with inflation. Investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs), may be another way for retirees to diversify their investment portfolio, reduce volatility, and add to their fixed-income. Just be sure to understand the potential risks involved in these investments.

Inflation Calculator for Retirement

It’s important to factor inflation into your plans as you’re saving for retirement. One way to do that is using a retirement calculator, like this one from the Department of Labor, which accounts for how inflation will impact your purchasing power in the future. That calculator uses a 3% inflation rate for retirement planning, but inflation fluctuates and could be higher or lower in any given year.

The Takeaway

While inflation can have an impact on a retirement portfolio, there are ways to protect the purchasing power of your money over time. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to stocks and other investments aimed at minimizing the impact of inflation may help.

Another way to curb the impact of inflation during retirement is to reduce expenses, which allows the money that you have to go further.

And starting to save for retirement as early as possible could help you accrue the compounded returns necessary to counteract rising prices in the future.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

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FAQ

Is inflation good or bad for retirees?

A small amount of inflation each year is a normal part of the economic cycle. But over time, inflation eats away at the value of the dollar and purchasing power of your nest egg is diminished. This can have a negative effect on a retirement investment portfolio or savings.

How can I protect my retirement savings from inflation?

There are several Investing strategies you can use to protect retirement savings from inflation. These include diversifying your portfolio with inflation hedges including TIPS (treasury inflation-protected securities) and investments that typically provide a high rate of return. It’s important to keep saving for retirement even if you don’t have a 401(k).

Does your pension increase with inflation?

Some pensions have a cost of living adjustment on their monthly payments, so they increase over time. However, this is not the case for all pensions. When inflation increases this can affect your benefits.


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Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
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What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation. But of course what one investor considers a good return might not be ideal for someone else.

And while getting a “good” return on your investments is important, it’s equally important to know that the average return of the U.S. stock market is just that: an average of the market’s performance, typically going back to the 1920s. On a year-by-year basis, investors can expect returns that might be higher or lower — and they also have to face the potential for outright losses.

In addition, the S&P 500 is a barometer of the equity markets, and it only reflects the performance of the 500 biggest companies in the U.S. Most investors will hold other types of securities in addition to equities, which can affect their overall portfolio return.

Key Points

•   A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation.

•   The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.

•   Different investments, such as CDs, bonds, stocks, and real estate, offer varying rates of return and levels of risk.

•   It’s important to consider factors like diversification and time when investing long-term.

•   Investing in stocks carries higher potential returns but also higher risk, while investments like CDs offer lower returns but are considered safer.

What Is the Historical Average Stock Market Return?

Dating back to the late 1920s, the S&P 500 index has returned, on average, around 10% per year. Adjusted for inflation that’s roughly 7% per year.

Here’s how much a 7% return on investment can earn an individual after 10 years. If an individual starts out by putting in $1,000 into an investment with a 7% average annual return, they would see their money grow to $1,967 after a decade, assuming little or no volatility (which is unlikely in real life).

It’s important for investors to have realistic expectations about what type of return they’ll see.

For financial planning purposes however, investors interested in buying stocks should keep in mind that that doesn’t mean the stock market will consistently earn them 7% each year. In fact, S&P 500 share prices have swung violently throughout the years. For instance, the benchmark tumbled 38% in 2008, then completely reversed course the following March to end 2009 up 23%.

Factors such as economic growth, corporate performance, interest rates, and share valuations can affect stock returns. Thus, it can be difficult to say X% or Y% is a good return, as the investing climate varies from year to year.

A better approach is to think about your hoped-for portfolio return in light of a certain goal (e.g. retirement), and focus on the investment strategy that might help you achieve that return.

Line graph: 10 Year Model of S&P 500

Why Your Money Loses Value If You Don’t Invest it

It’s helpful to consider what happens to the value of your money if you simply hang on to cash.

Keeping cash can feel like a safer alternative to investing, so it may seem like a good idea to deposit your money into a savings account — the modern day equivalent of stuffing cash under your mattress. But cash slowly loses value over time due to inflation; that is, the cost of goods and services increases with time, meaning that cash has less purchasing power. Inflation can also impact your investments.

Interest rates are important, too. Putting money in a savings account that earns interest at a rate that is lower than the inflation rate guarantees that money will lose value over time.

This is why, despite the risks, investing money is often considered a better alternative to simply saving it. The inflation risk is lower.

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What Is a Good Rate of Return for Various Investments?

As noted above, determining a good rate of return will also depend on the specific investments you hold, and your asset allocation. You can always calculate the expected rate of return for various securities.

CDs

Certificates of deposit (CDs) may be considered a relatively safe investment because they offer a fixed rate of return in return for keeping your money on deposit for a specific period of time. That means there’s relatively little risk — but because investors also agree to tie their money up for a predetermined period of time CDs are also considered illiquid. There is generally a penalty for withdrawing your money before the CD matures.

Generally, the longer money is invested in a CD, the higher the return. Many CDs require a minimum deposit amount, and larger deposits (i.e. for jumbo CDs) tend to be associated with higher interest rates.

It’s the low-risk nature of CDs that also means that they earn a lower rate of return than other investments, usually only a few percentage points per year. But they can be a good choice for investors with short-term goals who need a relatively low-risk investment vehicle while saving for a short-term goal.

Here are the weekly national rates compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as of April 17, 2023:

Non-Jumbo Deposits National Avg. Annual Percentage Yield
1 month 0.24%
3 month 0.78%
6 month 1.03%
12 month 1.54%
24 month 1.43%
36 month 1.34%
48 month 1.29%
60 month 1.37%

Bonds

Purchasing a bond is basically the same as loaning your money to the bond-issuer, like a government or business. Similar to a CD, a bond is a way of locking up a certain amount of money for a fixed period of time.

Here’s how it works: A bond is purchased for a fixed period of time (the duration), investors receive interest payments over that time, and when the bond matures, the investor receives their initial investment back.

Generally, investors earn higher interest payments when bond issuers are riskier. An example may be a company that’s struggling to stay in business. But interest payments may be lower when the borrower is trustworthy, like the U.S. government, which has never defaulted on its Treasuries.

Stocks

Stocks can be purchased in a number of ways. But the important thing to know is that a stock’s potential return will depend on the specific stock, when it’s purchased, and the risk associated with it. Again, the general idea with stocks is that the riskier the stock, the higher the potential return.

This doesn’t necessarily mean you can put money into the market today and assume you’ll earn a large return on it in the next year. But based on historical precedent, your investment may bear fruit over the long-term. Because the market on average has gone up over time, bringing stock values up with it, but stock investors have to know how to handle a downturn.

As mentioned, the stock market averages a return of roughly 7% per year, adjusted for inflation.

Real Estate

Returns on real estate investing vary widely. It mostly depends on the type of real estate — if you’re purchasing a single house versus a real estate investment trust (REIT), for instance — and where the real estate is located.

As with other investments, it all comes down to risk. The riskier the investment, the higher the chance of greater returns and greater losses. Investors often debate the merit of investing in real estate versus investing in the market.

Likely Return on Investment Assets

For investors who have a high risk tolerance (they’re willing to take big risks to potentially earn high returns), some investments are better than others. For example, investing in a CD isn’t going to reap a high return on investment. So for those who are looking for higher returns, riskier investments are the way to go.

Remember the Principles of Good Investing

Investors focused on seeing huge returns over the short-term may set themselves up for disappointment. Instead, remembering basic tenets of responsible investing can best prep an investor for long-term success.

First up: diversification. It can be a good idea to invest in a wide variety of assets — stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., and a wide variety of investments within those subgroups. That’s because each type of asset tends to react differently to world events and market forces. Due to that, a diverse portfolio can be a less risky portfolio.

Time is another important factor when investing. Investing early may result in larger returns in the long-term. That’s largely because of compound interest, which is when interest is earned on an initial investment, along with the returns already accumulated by that investment. Compound interest adds to your returns.

Investing with SoFi

While every investor wants a “good return” on their investments, there isn’t one way to achieve a good return — and different investments have different rates of return, and different risk levels. Investing in CDs tends to deliver lower returns, while stocks (which are more volatile) may deliver higher returns but at much greater risk.

Your own investing strategy and asset allocation will have an influence on the potential returns of your portfolio over time.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, and other fees apply (full fee disclosure here). Members can access complimentary financial advice from a professional.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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The Black Scholes Model, Explained

The Black-Scholes Model, Explained

The Black-Scholes option pricing model is a mathematical formula used to calculate the theoretical price of an option. It’s a commonly-used formula for determining the price of contracts, and as such, can be useful for investors in the options market to know and have in their pocket for use.

But there are some important things to know about it, such as the fact that the model only applies to European options, and more.

Key Points

•   The Black-Scholes model is a mathematical formula used to calculate the theoretical price of an option.

•   It is commonly used for pricing options contracts and helps investors determine the value of options they’re considering trading.

•   The model takes into account factors like the option’s strike price, time until expiration, underlying stock price, interest rates, and volatility.

•   The Black-Scholes model was created by Myron Scholes and Fischer Black in 1973 and is also known as the Black-Scholes-Merton model.

•   While the model has some assumptions and limitations, it is considered an important tool for European options traders.

What Is the Black-Scholes Model?

As mentioned, the Black-Scholes model is one of the most commonly used formulas for pricing options contracts. The model, also known as the Black-Scholes formula, allows investors to determine the value of options they’re considering trading.

The formula takes into account several important factors affecting options in an attempt to arrive at a fair market price for the derivative. The Black-Scholes options pricing model only applies to European options.

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The History of the Black-Scholes Model

The Black-Scholes model gets its name from Myron Scholes and Fischer Black, who created the model in 1973. The model is sometimes called the Black-Scholes-Merton model, as Robert Merton also contributed to the model’s development. These three men were professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Chicago.

The model functions as a differential equation that requires five inputs:

•   The option’s strike price

•   The amount of time until the option expires

•   The price of its underlying stock

•   Interest rates

•   Volatility

Modern computing power has made it easier to use this formula and made it more popular among those interested in stock options trading.

The model only works for European options, since American options allow contract holders to exercise at any time between the time of purchase and the expiration date. By contrast, European options come at cheaper prices and only allow the owner to exercise the option on the expiration date. So, while European options only offer a single opportunity to earn profits, American options offer multiple opportunities.

Recommended: American vs European Options: What’s the Difference?

What Does the Black-Scholes Model Tell?

The main goal of the Black-Scholes Formula is to determine the chances that an option will expire in the money. To this end, the model goes deeper than simply looking at the fact that a call option will increase when its underlying stock price rises and incorporates the impact of stock volatility.

The model looks at several variables, each of which impact the value of that option. Greater volatility, for example, could increase the odds the options will wind up being in the money before its expiration. The more time the investor has to exercise the option also increases the likelihood of it winding up in the money and lowers the present value of the exercise price. Interest rates also influence the price of the option, as higher rates make the option more expensive by decreasing the present value of the exercise price.

The Black-Scholes Formula

The Black-Scholes formula expresses the value of a call option by taking the current stock prices multiplied by a probability factor (D1) and subtracting the discounted exercise payment times a second probability factor (D2).

Explaining in exact detail what D1 and D2 represent can be difficult because the original research papers by Black and Scholes didn’t explain or interpret D1 and D2, and neither did the papers published by Merton. Entire research papers have been written on the subject of D1 and D2 alone.


💡 Quick Tip: If you’re an experienced investor and bullish about a stock, buying call options (rather than the stock itself) can allow you to take the same position, with less cash outlay. It is possible to lose money trading options, if the price moves against you.

Why Is the Black-Scholes Model Important?

The Black-Scholes option pricing model is so important that it once won the Nobel Prize in economics. Some even claim that this model is among the most important ideas in financial history.

Some traders consider the Black-Scholes Model one of the best methods for figuring out fair prices of European call options. Since its creation, many scholars have elaborated on and improved this formula. In this sense, Black and Scholes made a significant contribution to the academic world when it comes to math and finance.

Some claim that the Black-Scholes model has made a significant contribution to the efficiency of the options and stock markets. While designed for European options, the Black-Scholes Model can still help investors understand how an option’s price might react to its underlying stock price movements and improve their overall options trading strategies.

This allows investors to optimize their portfolios by hedging accordingly, making the overall markets more efficient. However, others assert that the model has increased volatility in the markets, as more investors constantly try to fine tune their trades according to the formula.

How Accurate Is the Black-Scholes Model?

Some studies have shown the Black-Scholes model to be highly predictive of options prices. This doesn’t mean the formula has no flaws, though.

The model tends to undervalue calls that are deeply in the money and overvalue calls that are deeply out of the money.

That means the model might assign an artificially low value to options that are much higher than the price of their underlying stock, while it may overvalue options that are far beneath the stock’s current value. Options that deal with stocks yielding a high dividend also tend to get mispriced by the model.

Assumptions of the Black-Scholes Model

There are also a few assumptions made by the model that can lead to less-than-perfect predictions. Some of these include:

•   The assumption that volatility and the risk- free rate within a stock remain constant

•   The assumption that stock prices are stable and large price swings don’t happen

•   The assumption that a stock doesn’t pay dividends until after an option expires

Recommended: How Do Dividends Work?

Such assumptions are necessary, even if they may negatively impact results. Relying on assumptions like these make the task possible, as only so many variables can reasonably be calculated.

Over the years, math scholars have elaborated on the work of Black and Scholes and made efforts to compensate for some of the gaps created by the original assumptions.

This leads to another flaw of the Black-Scholes model, unlike other inputs in the model, volatility must be an estimate rather than an objective fact. Interest rates and the amount of time left until the option expires are concrete numbers, while volatility has no direct numerical value.

The best a financial analyst can do is calculate an estimation of volatility by using something like the formula for variance. Variance is a measurement of the variability of an asset, or how much prices change from time to time. One common measurement of volatility is the standard deviation, which is equivalent to the square root of variance.

The Takeaway

The Black-Scholes option-pricing model is among the most influential mathematical formulas in modern financial history, and it may be the most accurate way to determine the value of a European call option. It’s a complicated formula that has some drawbacks that traders must understand, but it’s a useful tool for European options traders.

Given the Black-Scholes model’s complexity, it’s likely that many investors will never use it. That doesn’t mean it isn’t important to know or understand, of course, but many investors may not get much practical use out of it unless they delve deeper into the world of options trading.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
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What Are Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)?

What Are Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)?

Collateralized debt obligations are complex financial products that bundle multiple bonds and loans into single securities.

These packaged securities are then sold in the market, typically to institutional investors. CDOs became more widely known to the general public due to their role in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Individual investors cannot easily buy CDOs. However, the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession revealed the interconnected nature of markets, as well as how losses on Wall Street can have ripple effects on the broader economy.

Therefore, it can be important for everyday individuals to grasp the role that complex financial instruments like collateralized debt obligations have in markets.

Key Points

•   Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are complex financial products that bundle multiple bonds and loans into single securities.

•   CDOs are sold in the market to institutional investors and became more widely known due to their role in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

•   CDOs work by using the payments from underlying loans, bonds, and other types of debt as collateral.

•   CDOs are typically sliced into tranches that hold varying degrees of risk and are sold to investors.

•   Synthetic CDOs invest in derivatives, while regular CDOs invest in bonds, mortgages, and loans. CLOs are a subset of CDOs that gather debt from different companies.

How Do CDOs Work?

“Collateral” in finance is a term that refers to the security that lenders may require in return for lending money. In collateralized debt obligations, the collateral are the payments from the underlying loans, bonds, and other types of debt.

CDOs are considered derivatives since their prices are derived from the performance of the underlying bonds and loans. The institutional investors who tend to hold CDOs may collect the repayments from the original borrowers in the securities.

The returns of CDOs depend on the performance of the underlying debt. CDOs are popular because they allow lenders, usually banks, to turn a relatively illiquid security — like a bond or loan — into a more liquid asset.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

Tranches in CDOs

CDOs are typically sliced into so-called tranches that hold varying degrees of risk and then these slices are sold to investors.

The most senior tranche is the highest rated by credit rating firms like S&P and Moody’s. The highest credit rating possible is AAA. Holders of the most senior or highest-rated tranche generally receive the lowest yield but are the last group to absorb losses in cases of default.

The most junior tranche in CDOs is sometimes unrated. Investors of this layer earn the highest yields but are the first to absorb credit losses. The middle tranche is usually rated between BB to AA.

Recommended: How Do Derivatives Work?

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What Are Synthetic CDOs?

Regular, plain-vanilla CDOs invest in bonds, mortgages, and loans. In contrast, synthetic collateralized debt obligations invest in derivatives.

So instead of bundling corporate bonds or home mortgages, synthetic CDOs bundle derivatives like credit default swaps, options contracts, or other types of contracts. Keep in mind, these derivatives are themselves tied to another asset, such as loans or bonds.

Investors of regular CDOs get returns from the payments made on corporate debt or mortgage loans. Holders of synthetic CDOs get returns from the premiums associated with the derivatives.

CDOs vs CLOs

Collateralized loan obligations are a subset of CDOs. Instead of bundling up an array of different types of debt, CLOs more specifically gather together debt from hundreds of different companies, often this debt is considered below investment grade.

CLOs are considered by some market observers to be safer than CDOs, but both are risky debt products. CLOs do however tend to be more diversified across firms and sectors, while CDOs run the risk of being concentrated in a single debt type, such as mortgage loans during the 2008 financial crisis.

According to S&P, no U.S. AAA-rated CLO has ever defaulted. Also, CDOs can have a higher percentage of lower-rated debt. According to the ratings firm Moody’s, CDOs are allowed to hold up to 17.5% of their portfolio in Caa-rated assets and below (e.g. very high credit risk). That compares to the 7.5% in CLOs.

Collateralized Debt Obligations and the 2008-09 Housing Crisis

CDOs of mortgage-backed securities became notorious during the subprime housing crisis of 2008 and 2009. A selloff in the CDO market was said to amplify broader economic weakness in the economy.

Banks had been weakening lending standards when it came to home mortgages, allowing individuals to buy home that may have been too expensive for them.

Meanwhile, Wall Street banks were packaging home loans — some risky and subprime — into CDOs in the years leading up to the financial crisis. Ratings firms labeled these mortgage-backed CDOs as safe, on the premise that homeowners were a group of creditors less likely to default.

A mortgage-backed CDO holds many individual mortgage bonds. The mortgage bonds, in turn, packaged thousands of individual mortgages. These mortgage CDOs were considered to be of limited risk because of how they were diversified across many mortgage bonds.

But homeowners started to become unable to make their monthly payments, and defaults and foreclosures started piling up, leading to a domino effect of losses spread across the financial system.

Recommended: What Is Active Investing?

CDO Comeback

Around 2020, CDOs had a resurgence, with primarily corporate loans rather than home loans being packaged into securities.

A world of ultralow yields in the bond market pushed investors to seek higher-yielding markets. The average yield stands at just 2%, while trillions of dollars in debt trades at negative rates. In contrast, CDOs can yield up to 10%.

This time around hedge funds and private-equity firms, rather than banks, became the big players in the CDO market. Hedge funds are the new buyers–accounting for 70% of volume in the market. Banks were responsible for 10% of volumes in 2019, compared with 50% in the past.


💡 Quick Tip: Are self directed brokerage accounts cost efficient? They can be, because they offer the convenience of being able to buy stocks online without using a traditional full-service broker (and the typical broker fees).

The Takeaway

Collateralized debt obligations or CDOs are financial structures that bundle together different types of debt and sell shares of these bundled securities to investors.

The return investors might see from these debt-based, derivative securities depends on the ongoing payments from the debt holders. CDOs are typically purchased by institutional investors, not retail investors, but it can be useful to know about this market sector.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


Photo credit: iStock/akinbostanci

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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