Should I Lock My Mortgage Rate Today?

Should I Lock My Mortgage Rate Today?

If you are offered a relatively low mortgage rate, locking it in can secure it and potentially save you a bundle of money over the life of your loan. In other words, it can be a smart move.

That said, when applying for a mortgage, you only have so much control over the mortgage rate, as lenders will consider your credit score, income, and assets to determine your risk as a borrower. What’s more, mortgage rates change daily based on external economic factors like investment activity and inflation.

Read on to learn how a mortgage rate lock works and the benefits and downsides of using this option.

First-time homebuyers can
prequalify for a SoFi mortgage loan,
with as little as 3% down.


What Is a Mortgage Rate Lock?

A mortgage rate lock is an agreement between a borrower and lender to secure an interest rate on a mortgage for a set period of time. Locking in your mortgage rate safeguards you from market fluctuations while the lender underwrites and processes your loan.

Interest rates can rise and fall significantly between mortgage preapproval and closing on a property.

Remember that in the home-buying process, when you’re pre-approved for a mortgage, you will know exactly how much you most likely can borrow, and then you can shop for a home in that range.

So when can you lock in a mortgage rate? Depending on the lender, you may have the option to lock in the rate any time between preapproval and when underwriting begins.

Before preapproval and locking in, it’s recommended to get multiple offers when shopping for a mortgage to find a competitive rate.


💡 Quick Tip: Want the comforts of home and to feel comfortable with your home loan? SoFi has a simple online application and a team dedicated to closing your loan on time. No surprise SoFi has been named a Top Online Lender in 2024 by LendingTree/Newsweek.

How a Mortgage Rate Lock Works

Mortgage rate locks are more complicated than simply securing a set rate in perpetuity. How the rate lock works in practice will vary among lenders, loan terms, different types of mortgages, and geographic locations.

Once you lock a mortgage rate, there are three possible scenarios: Interest rates will increase, decrease, or stay the same. The ideal outcome is securing a lower rate than the prevailing market interest rate at the time of closing.

Here are some key points to know if you are considering a rate lock:

•   Rate locks are sometimes free but often cost between 0.25% and 0.50% of the loan amount.

•   When you choose to lock in your rate, it’s stabilized for a set period of time — usually for 30 to 60 days, but up to 120 days may be available.

•   If the rate lock expires before closing on the property, the ability to extend is subject to the lender.

•   Time it right. The average mortgage took 44 days to close as of February 2024, according to ICE Mortgage Technology, underscoring the importance of timing a mortgage rate lock with your expected closing date. Otherwise, you could face fees for extending the rate lock or have to settle for a new, potentially higher rate.

•   Whether borrowers are charged for a rate lock depends on the lender. It could be baked into the cost of the offer or tacked on as a flat fee or percentage of the loan amount. The longer the lock period, the higher the fees, generally speaking.

•   Lenders have the discretion to void the rate lock and change your rate based on your personal financial situation. Say you take out a new line of credit to cover an emergency expense during the mortgage underwriting process. This could affect your credit and debt-to-income ratio, causing the lender to reevaluate your eligibility for the offered rate and financing.

•   Lenders also determine the mortgage rate based on the types of houses a borrower is looking at: A primary residence vs. a vacation home or investment property, for example, would influence the interest rate.

Recommended: A Guide to Buying a Duplex

Consequences of Not Locking in Your Mortgage Rate

There are risks to not locking in a mortgage rate before closing.

If you don’t lock in a rate, it can change at any time. An uptick in interest rates would translate to a higher monthly mortgage payment. Granted, a slight bump to your monthly payment may not lead to mortgage relief, but it could cost thousands over time.

Example: The monthly payment on a $300,000 loan at a 30-year fixed rate would go up by $88 if the interest rate increased from 4% to 4.5%. This would add up to an extra $31,611 in interest paid over the life of the loan.

You can use a mortgage calculator tool to see how much a rise in rates could affect your mortgage payment.

Furthermore, a higher monthly payment might potentially disqualify you from financing, depending on the impact on your debt-to-income ratio. After a jump in interest rates, borrowers may need to make a larger down payment or buy mortgage points upfront to obtain financing.

Even if you lock in a mortgage rate early on, you could face these consequences if it expires before closing. Deciding when to lock in a mortgage rate should account for any potential contingencies that could delay the process.
If you’re unsure, ask your lender for guidance on when you should lock in.


💡 Quick Tip: Generally, the lower your debt-to-income ratio, the better loan terms you’ll be offered. One way to improve your ratio is to increase your income (hello, side hustle!). Another way is to consolidate your debt and lower your monthly debt payments.

What to Do if Interest Rates Fall After Your Rate Lock

The main concern with mortgage rate locks is that you could miss out on a lower rate. In most cases, buyers will pay the rate they are locked in at if the prevailing interest rate is less.

A float-down option, however, protects you from rate increases while letting you switch to the lower interest rate at closing.

•   Float-down policies vary by lender but generally cost more than a conventional rate lock for the added flexibility and assurance.

•   It’s also possible that a float-down option won’t be triggered unless a certain threshold is met for the drop in rates.

•   It’s worth noting that borrowers aren’t committed to the mortgage lender until closing, so reapplying elsewhere is an option if rates change considerably.

Pros and Cons of Mortgage Rate Lock

Back to the big question: Should I lock my mortgage rate today? It’s important to weigh the pros and cons to decide when to lock in a mortgage rate.

Pros

Cons

Locking in a rate you can afford can lessen money stress during the closing process A rate lock might prevent you from getting a better deal if rates fall later on
You could save money on interest if you lock in before rates go up If a rate lock expires, you may have to pay for an extension or get stuck with a potentially higher rate
Lenders may offer a short-term rate lock for free, providing a window to close the deal if rates spike but an opportunity to wait it out if they drop Rate locks can involve a fee of 0.25% to 0.50% of the loan amount.

The Takeaway

A favorable interest rate can make a difference in your home-buying budget. If you’re considering a rate lock because you’re concerned that rates will be rising, it’s important to choose a lock period that gives the lender ample time to process the loan to avoid extra fees or a potentially higher rate.

Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.


SoFi Mortgages: simple, smart, and so affordable.

FAQ

How long does a rate lock period last?

Rate locks usually last 30 to 60 days but can be shorter or longer depending on the agreement. It’s not uncommon for lenders to offer a free rate lock for a designated time frame.

Should you use a mortgage rate “float-down”?

If you’re worried about missing out on low interest rates, a mortgage rate float-down option could let you secure the current rate with the option to take a lower one if rates drop. Take note that these agreements usually outline a specified period and minimum amount the rate must drop to activate the float-down.

How much does a rate lock cost?

Lenders don’t always charge for a rate lock. If they do, you can expect costs to range from 0.25% to 0.50% of the loan amount for a lock period (usually 30 to 60 days). A longer lock period or adding a float-down option typically increases the rate lock cost.

What happens if my rate lock expires?

If your rate lock expires before you’ve finalized the deal, you can choose to extend the lock period (usually for a fee) or take the prevailing rate when you close on the loan.


Photo credit: iStock/Vertigo3d

*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.

SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility-criteria for more information.


Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

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Property Tax and Your Mortgage: Everything You Need to Know

Property Tax and Your Mortgage: Everything You Need to Know

As you explore your home loan options, you may wonder if property taxes are included in mortgage payments, and typically they are, often along with insurance. Though many mortgage calculators don’t include property tax in their estimates, it is likely that expense will be rolled into your mortgage payment.

Having your property tax included in your mortgage is convenient, for sure, but it’s not the only way to pay taxes. Read on to learn more about paying property taxes and your mortgage.

Key Points

•   Property taxes are typically included in mortgage payments, often alongside insurance.

•   Most mortgage calculators do not account for property tax, although it is usually part of the mortgage payment.

•   Property taxes fund local services such as schools, police, and road maintenance.

•   Property taxes are paid into an escrow account monthly, and the mortgage servicer pays the bill when due.

•   If a mortgage is paid off, the homeowner must manage property tax payments directly.

What Are Property Taxes?

Property taxes are taxes paid on real property owned by an individual or entity. Property taxes are based on an assessed property value and are paid whether or not the property is used. When you become a new homeowner, you’ll pay property taxes for the first time.

The money you pay will be put to use toward the local school system, police and fire departments, sanitation, road work, and other services.


💡 Quick Tip: SoFi’s award-winning mortgage loan experience means a simple application — we even offer an on-time close guarantee. We’ve made $7.5 billion in home loans so we know a thing or two about what makes homebuyers happy.‡

Why Do You Need to Pay Property Taxes?

Local governments rely on property taxes as a revenue source. About 75% of local funding from tax collections come from property taxes.

As noted above, property taxes pay for government services like schools, roads, law enforcement, and emergency services. If you have a mortgage, a portion of your payment will go into your escrow account to be paid when your taxes come due.

How Are Property Taxes Paid?

Every month you’ll pay one-twelfth of your tax payment into an escrow account, if you have one, and most loans do.

When it’s time to pay taxes, a notice will be sent to your mortgage servicer. You’ll likely see one in the mail, too, but your mortgage servicer is the one responsible for paying your property taxes. (A review of your mortgage statements should reflect that you are paying these taxes.)

If you make a down payment of 20% or more on a conventional loan, your lender may waive the escrow requirement if you request it. USDA and FHA mortgages do not allow borrowers to close their escrow accounts. If you own your home outright, you’ll pay taxes on your own.

How to Calculate Property Tax

Property tax is calculated by your local taxing entity. The methods and rates for calculating property taxes vary widely around the country. In general, your property is assessed, and you pay taxes as a percentage of that value. (Keep in mind that the assessed value may be different from the market value.)

To get the amount of taxes you will pay, multiply the assessed value of your home by the tax rate. Some states allow for an exemption to reduce the taxable value. Florida, for example, offers a homestead exemption of up to $50,000 on a primary residence.

If your home was assessed at $400,000, and the property tax rate is 0.62%, you would pay $2,480 in property taxes ($400,000 x 0.0062 = $2,480).

If you qualify for a $50,000 exemption, you would subtract that from the assessed value, then multiply the new amount by the property tax rate.

$400,000 – $50,000 = $350,000
$350,000 x 0.0062 = $2,170

With an exemption of $50,000, you would owe $2,170 in property taxes on a $400,000 house.

Property Tax Rate

The property tax rate is determined by the local taxing authority and is adjusted each year. In general, taxing entities aim to collect a similar amount as in the prior year. If property values go up, the effective tax rate might go down a little. You will receive a notice in the mail informing you of the new rate.

First-time homebuyers can
prequalify for a SoFi mortgage loan,
with as little as 3% down.


Are Property Taxes Included in Mortgage Payments?

Property taxes will be listed on your mortgage statements if you have an escrow account for homeowners insurance and property taxes. (When you’re shopping for a home loan, whether you’ll need an escrow account is one of many mortgage questions to ask a lender.)

The mortgage servicer deposits the portion of your mortgage payment meant for taxes in the escrow account. When your tax bill is due, the servicer will pay it.


💡 Quick Tip: To see a house in person, particularly in a tight or expensive market, you may need to show the real estate agent proof that you’re preapproved for a mortgage. SoFi’s online application makes the process simple.

What Happens to Property Tax If You Pay Off Your Mortgage?

If you pay off your mortgage, your property tax stays the same. The difference is you no longer have a mortgage servicer administering the escrow account for you. If you do have money left in your escrow account, it will be refunded to you once the mortgage is paid off.

Now that you no longer have an escrow account, you need to contact the taxing entity and have the tax bill sent directly to you.

Recommended: How to Afford a Down Payment on Your First Home

What if You Can’t Afford Property Tax?

If you’ve paid off your house or have closed your escrow account, you may feel the full force of ever-increasing property taxes. This is particularly true of older adults on a fixed income.

The trouble with not paying taxes is that your taxing entity can place a lien against your property or even start foreclosure proceedings. You do have several options to explore if you’re having trouble with your property taxes.

•   Payment options. Your locality may be open to establishing a payment system for collecting your taxes. There are also relief programs you may be eligible for.

•   Challenge your home’s assessed value. Since your taxes are based on your home’s assessed value, you can challenge it to potentially reduce your taxes. You generally need to do it soon after you receive your tax bill. You have to show that the market value of your home is inaccurate or unfair.

•   Talk to a HUD housing counselor. A housing counselor can point you in the direction of programs that can reduce your tax bill or offer some other relief, such as a deferral or payment plan. They can also help you find mortgage relief programs, should you need them.

The Takeaway

Is property tax included in a mortgage? With most home loans, yes. Typically, you pay one-twelfth of the amount owed every month into escrow, and your servicer is then responsible for paying the property tax bill for you. Property taxes are a significant part of your home-buying budget, so be sure to include them in your budget as you work towards securing a mortgage.

Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.


SoFi Mortgages: simple, smart, and so affordable.

FAQ

What is included in my monthly mortgage payment?

There can be as many as seven parts to your mortgage payment: principal, interest, escrow, taxes, homeowners insurance, any mortgage insurance, and any HOA or condo fees.

Is it better to pay your monthly tax with your mortgage?

It’s certainly more convenient to have your tax included in your mortgage payment. You’ll never have to worry about your taxes being paid or coming up with a large payment when they come due. On the other hand, if you would rather manage the tax payment yourself, you may be able to cancel your escrow account and pay the taxes on your own.

How do I know if my property taxes are included in my mortgage?

You can check your monthly mortgage statement or closing documents if you’re a new homeowner. For most types of loans, taxes are included in your mortgage payment.

Do you pay property tax monthly?

The monthly mortgage payment you send contains a share of the annual property tax bill that your mortgage servicer will pay. If you pay your taxes directly, you’ll pay them annually or semiannually.


Photo credit: iStock/MStudioImages

*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.

SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility-criteria for more information.


SoFi On-Time Close Guarantee: If all conditions of the Guarantee are met, and your loan does not close on or before the closing date on your purchase contract accepted by SoFi, and the delay is due to SoFi, SoFi will give you a credit toward closing costs or additional expenses caused by the delay in closing of up to $10,000.^ The following terms and conditions apply. This Guarantee is available only for loan applications submitted after 04/01/2024. Please discuss terms of this Guarantee with your loan officer. The mortgage must be a purchase transaction that is approved and funded by SoFi. This Guarantee does not apply to loans to purchase bank-owned properties or short-sale transactions. To qualify for the Guarantee, you must: (1) Sign up for access to SoFi’s online portal and upload all requested documents, (2) Submit documents requested by SoFi within 5 business days of the initial request and all additional doc requests within 2 business days (3) Submit an executed purchase contract on an eligible property with the closing date at least 25 calendar days from the receipt of executed Intent to Proceed and receipt of credit card deposit for an appraisal (30 days for VA loans; 40 days for Jumbo loans), (4) Lock your loan rate and satisfy all loan requirements and conditions at least 5 business days prior to your closing date as confirmed with your loan officer, and (5) Pay for and schedule an appraisal within 48 hours of the appraiser first contacting you by phone or email. This Guarantee will not be paid if any delays to closing are attributable to: a) the borrower(s), a third party, the seller or any other factors outside of SoFi control; b) if the information provided by the borrower(s) on the loan application could not be verified or was inaccurate or insufficient; c) attempting to fulfill federal/state regulatory requirements and/or agency guidelines; d) or the closing date is missed due to acts of God outside the control of SoFi. SoFi may change or terminate this offer at any time without notice to you. *To redeem the Guarantee if conditions met, see documentation provided by loan officer.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

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Buying a Home in a Seller’s Market With a Low Down Payment

Buying a Home in a Seller’s Market With a Low Down Payment

The housing market is rising in some areas of America and falling in others. If you find yourself in a hot seller’s market, it can be challenging to buy a house, but doing so, even with a low down payment, is possible.

Lenders are willing to approve low-down-payment mortgages if you qualify and are comfortable with paying mortgage insurance.

Read on for advice on navigating the real estate market if you have a small down payment but a fair amount of competition from other prospective buyers.

First-time homebuyers can
prequalify for a SoFi mortgage loan,
with as little as 3% down.

Questions? Call (888)-541-0398.


What Is Considered a Low Down Payment?

While many people believe you need at least a 20% down payment to buy a house, the average down payment on a house at the end of 2023 was 8%.

Given the wide range above, what’s actually considered a low-down payment? Popular mortgage programs out there may require as little as 3% down, and a couple of more specific home loan programs allow 0% down.

The reason why that 20% down payment figure keeps popping up is that any amount less than that will likely entail some form of mortgage insurance, an ongoing fee charged by most lenders.


💡 Quick Tip: You deserve a more zen mortgage. Look for a mortgage lender who’s dedicated to closing your loan on time.

Challenges of Buying in a Seller’s Market When You Have a Small Down Payment

There’s truth to the saying “cash is king,” and that continues to be evident in a seller’s market, where real estate investors who pay all cash frequently outbid prospective first-time homebuyers.

Be ready for these potential challenges if you intend to buy a home with a small down payment.

Longer Closing Time

Closing on a home with a mortgage-contingent offer to buy takes longer than closing with a cash offer. There’s often more paperwork, and underwriters may take longer to ensure that your financials are in order before green-lighting your mortgage.

Lenders May Disagree With Mortgage Minimums

Just because a mortgage loan program allows for a 3% minimum down payment doesn’t mean the lender will accept it. Lenders have wide latitude to dictate their own terms, and it’s fairly common for them to set their own minimum down payment requirement somewhere above what the stated minimum for the program is.

Home Sellers May Be Nervous About Your Ability to Close

While it’s true that all funds from your down payment and mortgage transfer to the seller at closing, many sellers still buy into the old “bird in hand” adage when it comes to accepting offers. A higher down payment signals a buyer’s financial capacity and is, therefore, more attractive in the eyes of the homeowner.

If sellers accept a bid with a low down payment, they may run an increased risk of the buyer being rejected at the last minute by their mortgage lender.

In a deal involving a mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), if the home is appraised for less than the agreed-upon price, the sellers must match the appraised price or the deal will fall through.

And FHA guidelines require home appraisers to look for certain defects. If any are found, the sellers may have to repair them before the sale.

Recommended: Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) versus Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP)

Tips for Buying With a Small Down Payment

If you’re trying to score a home with a small down payment, there are some ways you can approach it to increase your odds of buying the home of your dreams.

One way is to select a government-backed mortgage program — FHA, or the US Department of Agriculture or Veterans Affairs — that allows for a low down payment. The government guarantee makes them more palatable for mortgage lenders and easier for a homebuyer to afford.

Some specialized mortgage programs allow qualified buyers to put as little as 0% down; others, from 3% to 5% down. Some of the most popular low-down-payment mortgage programs are:

•   VA loans (0% down)

•   USDA loans (0% down)

•   FHA loans (3.5% down)

•   Fannie Mae HomeReady (3% down)

•   Conventional 97 loan (3% down)

•   Conventional mortgage (5% down)

Another option is to apply for down payment assistance. Many governments and nonprofits offer down payment assistance programs for first-time homebuyers — those who have not owned a principal residence in the past three years — in the form of loans or grants. Some lenders can even assist you in qualifying for these programs to help offset the upfront costs of homebuying.

Finally, you can also ask a family member, or sometimes a domestic partner, close friend, or employer, to help with the down payment by contributing gift money. The money can’t come with any strings attached, and a gift letter will likely be required. This is a popular option for parents and in-laws who want to help their children buy a first home.


💡 Quick Tip: Not to be confused with prequalification, preapproval involves a longer application, documentation, and hard credit pulls. Ideally, you want to keep your applications for preapproval to within the same 14- to 45-day period, since many hard credit pulls outside the given time period can adversely affect your credit score, which in turn affects the mortgage terms you’ll be offered.

Pros and Cons of Using a Low Down Payment

There are both benefits and disadvantages to submitting a small down payment on a home. Here are a couple of points to think about.

Pros of Using a Low Down Payment

•   Gets you in a home faster than waiting to save for a bigger down payment.

•   Start building equity earlier and avoid spending money on rent.

•   Preserve cash for other investments, opportunities, and emergencies.

•   Take advantage of current low mortgage rates, theoretically saving you money over the long run.

Cons of Using a Low Down Payment

•   You’ll have to pay private mortgage insurance, or a mortgage insurance premium, which could add 0.5% to 1.5% of the loan amount to your annual housing costs.

•   Your monthly mortgage payment will likely be larger, as the amount you borrow will increase the less you put down.

•   Your lender may penalize you with a higher mortgage rate to offset the higher risk of a lower down payment.

•   You run a greater risk of your home loan being underwater, should home values drop.

Recommended: Home Affordability Calculator

Tips for Managing a Seller’s Market

So what’s a prospective homebuyer to do if they find themselves in a seller’s market or a tight market and feel the cards are stacked against them?

One way to get a leg up on the competition is to get the ball rolling on financing early and make sure you have everything in place by the time you even submit an offer on a home.

Make sure you’re prequalified (which is when lenders have an idea of your income and assets before you start home shopping, so you have an idea of how much you can afford). Then, it can be smart to get preapproved, which is when you receive a letter from a lender stating that you qualify for a certain loan amount and rate. These steps can ensure that you’ll be ready to roll the second you find the right home.

Once you’ve submitted an offer on a house, make sure you’re ready when it comes to all documents and information requested by your chosen lender.

Another thing you can do is to find a good real estate agent who’s been through the homebuying process countless times and can advise you effectively.

Recommended: How to Buy a House in 7 Steps

The Takeaway

Buying a home with a small down payment, even in a seller’s market, is possible. With preparation and the right mortgage lender, you may be able to land a starter home or your dream home with a low down payment.

Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.


SoFi Mortgages: simple, smart, and so affordable.


Photo credit: iStock/sturti

*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.

SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility-criteria for more information.


Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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Black Swan Events and Investing, Explained

Black Swan Events and Investing, Explained

The term “black swan event” is widely used in finance today to describe an unanticipated event that severely impacts the financial markets.

The name stems from the discovery of avian black swans by Dutch explorer De Vlamingh while exploring Australia in the late 1600s. Historians credit de Vlamingh with separating the “expected” (i.e., a white swan, which were plentiful) with the “unexpected” (i.e., a black swan, which was a rare sighting).

Writer, professor and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the financial theory of “black swan” events in his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

“A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences,” Taleb wrote in his book. “Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.”

Taleb described the occasional — but highly problematic — arrival of black swans on the investment landscape, and outlined what, in his opinion, economists and investors could do to better understand those events and protect assets when they occur.

What Is a Black Swan Event?

According to Taleb, a black swan event is identifiable due to its extreme rarity and to its catastrophic potential damage to life and health, and to economies and markets. Taleb also notes in the book that once a black swan landed and devastated everything in its path, it was obvious in hindsight to recognize the event occurred.

It can be a difficult concept for investors. Who, after all, throughout the history of the stock market, would leave their finances unprotected from a black swan onslaught if they knew the event was imminent? By definition, predicting the arrival of a black swan is largely outside the realm of probability. All anyone needs to know, Taleb maintains, is that black swans occur and investors should not be surprised when they do happen.

Taleb outlines three indicators that signal the arrival of a black swan event. Each is meaningful in truly understanding a black swan scenario.

1.    Black swan events are outliers. No similar and prior event could predict the arrival of a particular black swan.

2.    Black swan events are severe, and they inflict widespread damage. That damage also has a severe impact on economies, cultures, institutions, and on families and communities.

3.    They’re usually seen in the rear view mirror. When black swans occur and eventually dissipate, recriminations take its place. While the specific black swan event wasn’t predicted, observers say the event could have and should have been prevented.

💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

Get up to $1,000 in stock when you fund a new Active Invest account.*

Access stock trading, options, alternative investments, IRAs, and more. Get started in just a few minutes.


*Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.028%.

Black Swan Event Examples

It’s become common for politicians and investors to call any negative event a “black swan” event, whether or not it meets Tasam’s definition. However, history has no shortage of true black swan events, which led to large, unpredictable market corrections.

The following events are considered some of the most infamous among economists and historians.

The Soviet Union’s Historic Collapse

Economists consider the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 a major black swan. Only 10 years earlier, the Russian empire was considered a major global economic and military threat. A decade later, the Soviet Union was no more, significantly shifting the global geopolitical and economic stage.

The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

In hindsight, the United States might have seen the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. coming. International terrorism had long been a big risk management issue for the U.S. government, but the severity of the attack left the world stunned – and plunged the U.S. into a serious economic decline. Stocks lost $1.4 trillion in value the week after the attacks.

The Dot-com Bubble

In the late 1990s, investors were indulging in irrational exuberance and nowhere was that more clear than with the nation’s stock market — particularly with white-hot technology stocks. With an army of Internet stocks in the IPO pipeline, overvalued tech stocks plummeted, taking the entire stock market down in the process. The damage was staggering, with the Nasdaq Index losing 78% of its value between March 2000 and October 2002.

The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

After a series of high-risk derivative bets by major banks, mounting losses in the U.S. mortgage market, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. economy teetered on the edge of disaster — a scenario it would take almost a decade to correct. The unemployment rate doubled to more than 10%, domestic product declined 4.3%, and at its worst point, the S&P 500 plummeted 57%, creating a bear market.

It’s worth noting that although some people have referred to the Covid-19 pandemic as a black swan event, Taleb does not consider it to be one since he feels there was enough historical precedence to foresee it.

Why Do Black Swan Events Happen?

Since black swan events are virtually impossible to predict, there is no concrete answer as to why they happen. The world is complicated, with many different factors — political, financial, environmental, and social, among others — impacting one another and setting off chains of events that could potentially become black swan events in scope and magnitude.

💡 Quick Tip: Distributing your money across a range of assets — also known as diversification — can be beneficial for long-term investors. When you put your eggs in many baskets, it may be beneficial if a single asset class goes down.

Can You Predict a Black Swan Event?

By its very definition, it’s nearly impossible to predict a specific black swan event. This makes it hard to prepare for black swans as you would for other investment risks.

Instead, investors may want to focus on making sure they’re prepared, generally, for the unknown. Here’s how to help do that:

•   Be pragmatic. Investors are better off knowing unanticipated negative events do exist and could arrive on their doorstep at any time. Keep in mind the possibility of black swans and consider building an expectation of stock volatility into your overall portfolio-management strategy.

•   Don’t get bogged down by long-term forecasts. Don’t rely solely on expert predictions or far-off investment outlooks, since unexpected events, including black swans can happen at any time and it’s normal for markets to fluctuate. Instead, consider building a more conservative element into your investment portfolio, one that relies more on protecting your assets, so you’re not tempted to make rash moves during a black swan event. Have a candid conversation with your financial advisor, or educate yourself if you don’t have a financial advisor, about how proper diversification may help build a portfolio that balances the need for performance with the need for protection.

•   Don’t panic when a black swan event happens. As tempting as it might be to try to get out of a market during a black swan event and get back in when it fades away, resist the urge to engage in market timing.

•   Look for opportunities. Putting money into the markets during a black swan event can be difficult and potentially risky, but investing in a down market may yield positive returns over the long-term.

Rather than trying to time the market, consider using a dollar-cost averaging strategy, in which you make regular purchases — even during a black swan event.

The Takeaway

For long-term investors, the prudent stance on black swan events is to acknowledge their existence, build some protection into your investment portfolio to help mitigate potential damage, and be ready to take full advantage of a market upturn once the black swan flies away.

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FAQ

What is a black swan event in recent years?

One of the most recent black swan events was the 2008-2009 financial crisis known as the Great Recession. That’s when a series of high-risk derivative bets by major banks, mounting losses in the U.S. mortgage market, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the biggest U.S. bankruptcy ever, pushed the U.S. economy to the edge of disaster.

What was the biggest black swan event?

The Great Depression of 1929 was probably the most infamous black swan event. It started with the U.S. stock market crash in October 1929 and led to a worldwide drop in stock prices. The U.S. economy shrank by 36% between 1929 and 1933, many banks failed, and the U.S. unemployment rate skyrocketed to more than 25%. It was the longest and most severe economic recession in modern history.

What are the attributes that identify a black swan event?

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who popularized the black swan theory, the attributes that identify a black swan event are: 1) black swan events are rare and no similar or prior event could predict them, 2) black swan events are severe and inflict widespread damage, and 3) after the fact, observers say the black swan event could have and should have been prevented.


Photo credit: iStock/by Martin Nancekievill

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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What is a Good Salary to Live in Texas for 2023

What Is a Good Salary to Live On in Texas for 2024?

What’s considered a “good” salary in Texas depends on your household size and lifestyle, but most Texans make between $45,000 and $100,000 annually.

Texas cities have differing costs of living, of course — Austin is much pricier than Amarillo — so where you live in the Lone Star State also matters. Let’s break it down further.

What Is a Good Salary for Texas?

A good salary, in many people’s minds, is one that allows an earner to save, take vacations, eat out, and so on. But before we can calculate that amount, we need to look at the average income required to cover basic needs in Texas.

Each year, MIT releases living wage figures — the income that one or two working adults, with or without children, must earn to pay for basic living expenses. Living wage numbers are expressed as an hourly rate, and it’s assumed that the person will work full time.

Wages needed to cover basic needs are as follows:

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Living Wage for 1 Adult
No children $20.92
1 child $35.39
2 children $43.60
3 children $56.61
Living Wage for 2 Adults, 1 Working
No children $28.89
1 child $34.44
2 children $38.55
3 children $41.27
2 Adults, Both Working
No children $14.44
1 child $19.78
2 children $24.20
3 children $27.97

If you multiply the hourly figure by 40 hours a week and 52 weeks, you’ll get the living wage as an annual salary. For an individual with no kids, that comes out to around $43,500.

That income would pay for rent and utilities, minimal food, healthcare, child care, and other basics. But it’s not enough to cover takeout, restaurant meals, a deluxe apartment, vacations, or savings for retirement or a house.


💡 Quick Tip: When you have questions about what you can and can’t afford, a spending tracker app can show you the answer. With no guilt trip or hourly fee.

Average Annual Salary in Texas

So what is a good yearly salary in Texas? According to MIT, the top three professions in Texas pay an average of $113,000, while the three lowest paying fields average out to around $28,000. Most Texans then make somewhere in the middle. However, statewide figures can’t tell you what constitutes a good salary in larger cities like Austin, where the cost of living is much higher.

Another measure of what constitutes a good salary: one that allows you to purchase an average-priced home. The average home price in the Woodlands, one of the most popular suburbs in the country, is around $540,000. A buyer would need to make over $100K to qualify for a mortgage. In the Panhandle or Dallas, however, home prices are considerably lower.

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Average Annual Expenses in Texas

When determining a living wage, MIT considers these expenses: food, child care, medical, rental housing, transportation, internet and mobile, civic, and annual taxes (including individual income tax, payroll tax, corporate income tax, and excise tax, but not property tax). By the way, “civic” is a catchall category that includes cultural attractions, hobbies, and pets, while “other” groups together clothing and personal care items.

As noted above, one adult with no children requires a gross income of $43,500 on average. This is how that income might allocated:

•   Food: $3,812

•   Child Care: $0

•   Medical: $2,992

•   Housing: $13,367

•   Transportation: $10,216

•   Civic: $2,165

•   Internet & Mobile: $1,468

•   Other: $3,903

•   Taxes: $5,584

Supporting a family of two working adults and three children requires an income of about $116,350, which breaks down as follows:

•   Food: $13,662

•   Child Care: $26,381

•   Medical: $9,734

•   Housing: $22,290

•   Transportation: $17,116

•   Civic: $5,191

•   Internet & Mobile: $2,048

•   Other: $9,841

•   Taxes: $10,088

To compare your spending to these figures, sign up for a free money tracker app.

How Much Money Do You Need to Live Comfortably in Texas?

Comfort is in the eye of the beholder. Some people want luxuries while others embrace financial minimalism. This is a “less is more” attitude to spending. People who follow this philosophy focus on purchases that will add meaning to their lives.

When determining the income you need to live comfortably, factor in where you fall on the minimalism to luxury spectrum. There’s no “bad” answer; it’s just important to be honest when budgeting. Also, what changes are you willing to make in order to save more? For instance, would you downsize your home?

Texans with a financial minimalist philosophy will be comfortable with less money than someone who strives for luxury. Minimalists often reap the benefits of living below their means, which can make room for having an emergency fund, spending in ways that are better for the planet, and stressing out less about finances.

If you’d like a more structured approach to saving and spending, the 50/30/20 budget can help. The three numbers represent the percentage of income that will be allocated to needs, wants, and savings, respectively.

Recommended: What Credit Score is Needed to Buy a Car?

Which City in Texas Has the Lowest Cost of Living?

Harlingen (pop. 71,925) has a cost of living that’s 20.4% lower than the national average, according to recent data from the Council for Community and Economic Research. Harlingen is in the Rio Grande Valley about 30 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. Its median home sale price was $290,600 in March 2024.


💡 Quick Tip: Income, expenses, and life circumstances can change. Consider reviewing your budget a few times a year and making any adjustments if needed.

The Takeaway

What is a good salary in Texas? It depends on your family size, location, and spending habits. Most individuals make between $45,000 and $100,000. You’ll need an income on the higher end of that range if you’re living in Austin, with its high cost of living. In Harlingen, on the other hand, where the cost of living is 20.4% lower than the national average, you can get by on much less. With that in mind, a good salary in Texas is between $55K and $73K. To live comfortably anywhere, it helps to track your spending and saving.

Take control of your finances with SoFi. With our financial insights and credit score monitoring tools, you can view all of your accounts in one convenient dashboard. From there, you can see your various balances, spending breakdowns, and credit score. Plus you can easily set up budgets and discover valuable financial insights — all at no cost.

See exactly how your money comes and goes at a glance.

FAQ

What is a livable salary in Texas?

The answer depends on your spending habits, locale, and how many people live in your household. The living wage for a single worker with no children is $43,500 before taxes, which is just enough to cover necessities. Two working adults with two children need a gross income of $100,689 to cover basic needs

What is considered rich in Texas?

To be considered middle class in Texas, you’ll need to earn between $44,865 and $133,926, according to 2023 data from SmartAsset. In order to move into the upper class, you’ll likely need to earn more than $133,926.

What is the top 1% income in Texas?

You need to earn more than $631,000 per year to be in the top 1% in Texas. This is similar to the national average.


Photo credit: iStock/gustavofrazao

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Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Non affiliation: SoFi isn’t affiliated with any of the companies highlighted in this article.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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