Historically speaking, mortgage rates have remained relatively low since the Great Recession, with some fluctuation at times due to market conditions. As a result, a generation of homebuyers has become accustomed to a low 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
But with mortgage rates on the rise, it can put a sour taste in the mouths of people trying to join the ranks of homeowners in the country. They may be thinking that they missed an opportunity to buy a home. However, it’s important to look at the history of mortgages and mortgage rates to put the current conditions into context.
Table of Contents
Key Points
• Historical mortgage rates have been relatively low since the Great Recession, encouraging a generation of homebuyers.
• The Federal Housing Administration initiated modern mortgage lending in the U.S. during the 1930s.
• Mortgage rates peaked at 18.63% in October 1981 due to tight monetary policies.
• Post-2007, rates dropped significantly, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate the economy.
• Recent trends show a rise in mortgage rates, reaching 7.79% in October 2023 before slightly decreasing.
The History of Mortgage Rates
The modern history of mortgage lending in the U.S. began in the 1930s with the creation of the Federal Housing Administration. From the 1930s through the 1960s, a combination of government policy and demographic changes made owning a home a normal part of American life. During this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage became the standard for home mortgage loans.
When discussing the fluctuation of mortgage rate trends, analysts usually refer to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Here’s a look at the trend of these mortgage rates since the 1970s.
The 1970s
Throughout the 1970s, mortgage rates rose steadily, moving from the 7% range into the 13% range. This uptick in rates was due, in part, to the Arab oil embargo, which significantly reduced the oil supply and sent the U.S. into a recession with high inflation — known as stagflation.
As a result, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker made a bold change in monetary policy by the end of the decade, raising the federal funds rate to combat inflation. Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its monetary policy decisions can still impact many financial products, including mortgages.
The 1980s
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit an all-time high in October 1981 when the rates reached 18.63%. The Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy affected this high borrowing cost and put the economy into a recession. However, inflation was under control by the end of the 1980s, and the economy recovered; mortgage rates moved down to around 10%.
The 1990s and 2000s
Mortgage rates continued a downward trend throughout the 1990s, ending the decade at around 8%. At the same time, the homeownership rate in the U.S. increased, rising from 63.9% in 1994 to 67.1% in early 2000.
Several factors led to a housing crash in the latter part of the 2000s, including a rise in subprime mortgages and risky mortgage-backed securities.
The housing crash led to the Great Recession. To boost the economy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to make borrowing money cheaper. Mortgage rates dropped from just below 7% in 2007 to below 5% in 2009.
Recommended: US Recession History: Reviewing Past Market Contractions
The 2010s
Mortgage rates steadily decreased throughout most of the 2010s, staying below 5% for the most part. The Federal Reserve enacted a zero-interest-rate policy and a quantitative easing program to prop up the economy during this time following the Great Recession. This helped keep mortgage rates historically low.
The 2020s
The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate to near-zero levels in March 2020, causing a drop in rates of various financial products. The effects of the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic pushed mortgage rates below previous historic lows. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 2.77% in August 2021.
However, with inflation reaching levels not experienced since the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve reversed course. The central bank started to tighten monetary policy in late 2021 and early 2022, which led to a rapid increase in mortgage rates. In May 2022, the average mortgage rate was above 5%. While this was below historical trends, it was the highest rate since 2018. From there, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage crept upward, reaching a high of 7.79% in October 2023 before declining to 7.1% in April 2024.
Recommended: How Inflation Affects Mortgage Interest Rates
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Why Do Mortgage Rates Change?
As we can see from looking at interest rate fluctuations, major economic events can significantly impact mortgage rates both in the short and long term. As noted above, this has to do primarily with the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve actions influence nearly all interest rates, including mortgages through the prime rate, long-term treasury yields, and mortgage-backed securities. The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds benchmark rate, the overnight rate at which banks lend money to each other.
This rate impacts the prime rate, which is the rate banks use to lend money to borrowers with good credit. Most adjustable short-term rate loans and mortgages use the prime rate to set the base interest rates they can offer to borrowers. So, after the Federal Reserve raises or lowers rates, adjustable short-term mortgage loan rates are likely to follow suit.
Longer-term mortgage rates have also risen and fallen alongside economic and political events with movement in long-term treasury bond yields. In the short term, a Federal Reserve interest rate change can affect mortgage markets as money moves between stocks and bonds, affecting mortgage rates. Longer-term mortgage rates are influenced by Fed rate changes but don’t have as direct an effect as short-term rates.
Recommended: Federal Reserve Interest Rates, Explained
Can Changing Rates Affect Your Existing Mortgage?
If you have a mortgage with a variable interest rate, known as an adjustable-rate mortgage, changing rates can affect your loan payments. With this type of home loan, you may have started with an interest rate lower than many fixed-rate mortgages. That introductory rate is often locked in for an initial period of several months or years.
After that, your interest rate is subject to change — how high and how often depends on the terms of your loan and interest rate fluctuations. These changes are generally tied to the movement of interest rates, but more specifically, which index your adjustable-rate mortgage is linked to, which can be affected by the Fed’s actions.
However, most adjustable-rate mortgages have annual and lifetime rate caps limiting how high your interest rate and payments can change.
If you took out a fixed-rate mortgage, your initial interest rate is locked in for the entire time you have the home loan, even if it takes you 30 years to pay it off.
Recommended: What Is a Good Mortgage Rate?
The Takeaway
If you are in the market to buy a home, it might be tempting to rush and buy when mortgage rates drop a bit, or to put off buying until rates hopefully decrease in the future. However, choosing the perfect time to buy a home based on the ideal rate can be difficult. You’re probably better off letting your need for a home and your personal financial situation drive your decision making. (Do you have a down payment saved up? Is your debt under control?) When it’s time to buy, do your research and choose the best mortgage available for your personal situation.
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